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BUF

Buffalo 32 at Troy 42

TROY
2018 · Dollar General Bowl · Dec 22, 2018 · Ladd Peebles Stadium
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFUMBLETDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:27 · Tyree Jackson run for 6 yds to the Troy 27 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 82Home team on offense−2.5Pregame prior−4.0Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−2.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:41: B.J. Smith run for 2 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +18.0 pts (now 65%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. FUMBLE · Q3 5:23: B.J. Smith run for a loss of 1 yard B.J. Smith fumbled, forced by James Patterson, recovered by Buff Tyrone Hill , return for 93 yds (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +17.3 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q4 14:13: Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 2 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +19.5 pts (now 70%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:24: Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 3 yds for a TD (Tyree Jackson pass to Antonio Nunn for Two-Point Conversion) — BUF win probability +28.7 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 3:09: Sidney Davis run for 20 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +25.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 5 of 6BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 7:13TROY 4th & 1 at BUF 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.3%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    47.9%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    46.7%−1.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:21BUF 4th & 9 at BUF 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:04TROY 4th & 10 at TROY 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:00TROY 4th & 10 at TROY 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:08TROY 4th & 15 at BUF 35, tied
    Close callWent for it · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.9%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    50.9%
    45% to make
    Punt
    50.1%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:27BUF 4th & 2 at TROY 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    51.8%−0.9
    49% to make
    Punt
    50.4%−2.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:52BUF 4th & 7 at TROY 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−1.0
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    47.1%−5.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:01TROY 4th & 10 at TROY 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:16BUF 4th & 11 at BUF 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−3.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:46BUF 4th & 2 at TROY 21, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    11.5%−0.6
    74% to make
    Punt
    7.3%−4.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:28TROY 4th & 12 at TROY 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%−6.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:10BUF 4th & 10 at TROY 13, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.1%−0.6
    85% to make
    Punt
    4.1%−1.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 13:12BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:47TROY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:06BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:15TROY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:41TROY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:13TROY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:25TROY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:24BUF Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    22.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    22.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:09TROY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4858% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
42.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 10 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
42.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+51
42.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 51 yds to the Troy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
42.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Troy 6Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
42.7%
BUFFALO Penalty, False Start (James O'Hagan) to the Troy 11Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
42.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 11 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2TD
4 plays · 74 yds · 1:1042% → 44%
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
42.3%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Marcus Jones for 8 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+6
42.5%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 6 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
43.7%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Tray Eafford for 60 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3INT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:4357% → 56%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
43.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 5 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+4
43.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q1 10:21
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+8
43.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 8 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
43.6%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
43.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kevin Marks for 2 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+18
43.9%
Tyree Jackson pass intercepted Cedarius Rookard return for 18 yds to the Buff 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4DOWNS
5 plays · 33 yds · 1:4445% → 45%
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+24
45.0%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 24 yds to the Buff 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
45.1%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Sidney DavisSimilar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+4
45.2%
Marcus Jones run for 4 yds to the Buff 9Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+5
45.2%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 5 yds to the Buff 4Similar
Q1 7:13
4TH & 1
OPP 4
0
45.0%
B.J. Smith run for no gain to the Buff 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:5255% → 54%
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+9
44.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 9 yds to the Buff 13Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 1
OWN 13
+5
44.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the Buff 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
44.8%
Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 17Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+2
45.1%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Buff 19Similar
Q1 4:33
3RD & 9
OWN 19
0
45.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q1 4:21
4TH & 9
OWN 19
0
46.0%
Evan Finegan punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Troy 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:1746% → 46%
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
46.3%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 3 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 7
OWN 46
-5
46.6%
TROY Penalty, False Start (J.L. Gaston) to the Troy 41Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+2
46.0%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 2 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q1 2:46
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
46.0%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Marcus Jones for no gain to the Troy 43Similar
Q1 2:04
4TH & 10
OWN 43
+53
45.6%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 49 yds, fair catch by K.J. Osborn at the TROY 8 BUFFALO Penalty, Illegal Block (4 Yards) to the Buff 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7TD
19 plays · 96 yds · 5:5854% → 62%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+9
45.6%
Kevin Marks run for 9 yds to the Buff 13Similar
Q1 1:46
2ND & 1
OWN 13
0
45.4%
Kevin Marks run for no gain to the Buff 13Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 1
OWN 13
-5
46.1%
BUFFALO Penalty, False Start (George Rushing) to the Buff 8Similar
Q1 0:32
3RD & 6
OWN 8
+10
46.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kevin Marks for 10 yds to the Buff 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
45.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to George Rushing for 4 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 28
-4
45.4%
Kevin Marks run for 6 yds to the Buff 28 BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tyler Mabry) to the Buff 18Similar
Q2 14:34
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
45.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q2 14:23
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+15
47.0%
Jackson, Tyree pass incomplete to Nunn, Antonio, PENALTY TROY pass interference (Jones, Marcus) 15 yards to the BUFFALO33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BUFFALO.Similar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
46.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+9
46.3%
Kevin Marks run for 9 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q2 13:47
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+5
45.1%
Marks, Kevin rush for no gain to the BUFFALO42, PENALTY TROY 12 men on the field 5 yards to the BUFFALO47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BUFFALO.Similar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+37
45.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 37 yds to the Troy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
44.3%
Marks, Kevin rush for 4 yards to the TROY12, PENALTY TROY substitution infraction 5 yards to the TROY11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 5
OPP 11
0
44.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+1
44.3%
Kevin Marks run for 1 yd to the Troy 10Similar
Q2 12:03
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+9
45.0%
Kevin Marks run for 9 yds to the Troy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
44.5%
Kevin Marks run for no gain to the Troy 1Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
38.3%
Kevin Marks run for 1 yd for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0041% → 40%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
41.0%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Damion WillisSimilar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
40.6%
B.J. Smith run for no gain to the Troy 29Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
39.8%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Sidney DavisSimilar
Q2 10:00
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
39.5%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 48 yds, downed at the Buff 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9FUMBLE
3 plays · 19 yds · 1:1160% → 62%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
40.3%
Jackson, Tyree pass complete to Patterson, Jaret for loss of 2 yards to the BUFFALO21, PENALTY TROY holding (Sanders, Trevon) 10 yards to the BUFFALO33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BUFFALO.Similar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
39.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 9 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 1
OWN 42
0
38.2%
Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the Buff 42 Jaret Patterson fumbled, forced by Carlton Martial, recovered by Troy Carlton MartialSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10TD
8 plays · 42 yds · 2:3442% → 53%
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
42.4%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Tray Eafford for 9 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 1
OPP 33
0
43.6%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Damion WillisSimilar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+11
42.4%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 11 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
42.6%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Buff 19Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+9
42.6%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Marcus Jones for 9 yds to the Buff 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
42.6%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
42.6%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Damion WillisSimilar
Q2 6:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
53.0%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 7 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11FUMBLE
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:2153% → 54%
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
47.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 6 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+3
46.4%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Buff 30 Kevin Marks fumbled, forced by Carlton Martial, recovered by Troy Cedarius RookardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12DOWNS
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:3754% → 50%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
54.0%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to B.J. SmithSimilar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+2
53.9%
Sawyer Smith run for 2 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 8
OPP 28
-7
53.3%
Sawyer Smith run for a loss of 7 yards to the Buff 35 Sawyer Smith fumbled, recovered by Troy Sawyer SmithSimilar
Q2 4:08
4TH & 15
OPP 35
0
49.9%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Damion WillisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 3:1653% → 58%
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
46.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+21
45.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 21 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
44.6%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
44.4%
Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the Troy 41Similar
Q2 2:14
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+8
45.4%
Jaret Patterson run for 8 yds to the Troy 33 Jaret Patterson fumbled, forced by Melvin Tyus, recovered by Buff Jaret PattersonSimilar
Q2 1:27
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+6
45.6%
Tyree Jackson run for 6 yds to the Troy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
42.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Tyler MabrySimilar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
42.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+3
44.3%
Tyree Jackson run for 3 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q2 0:52
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+41
41.9%
Adam Mitcheson 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 12 yds · 0:5146% → 43%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
45.5%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 1 yd to the Troy 36Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
45.8%
Sawyer Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+11
44.7%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 11 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
48.0%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Damion WillisSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
47.6%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Tray Eafford for no gain to the Troy 47Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
45.1%
B.J. Smith run for no gain to the Troy 47Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
43.3%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 50 yds, downed at the Buff 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
45.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:1944% → 65%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
44.1%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 4 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
44.2%
TROY Penalty, False Start (J.L. Gaston) to the Troy 24Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
43.6%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for no gain to the Troy 24Similar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+15
41.9%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 15 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
44.9%
B.J. Smith run for 9 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+24
47.0%
B.J. Smith run for 24 yds to the Buff 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+16
48.8%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 16 yds to the Buff 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
48.9%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Buff 9Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+5
49.0%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Sidney Davis for 5 yds to the Buff 4Similar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+2
47.4%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the Buff 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
65.4%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17FUMBLE TD
9 plays · 46 yds · 4:1764% → 50%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
63.9%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Tray EaffordSimilar
Q3 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
63.5%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 6 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+4
64.1%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 4 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
65.4%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+15
65.7%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 15 yds to the Buff 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+17
67.1%
B.J. Smith run for 17 yds to the Buff 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
67.4%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the Buff 6Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+93
50.1%
B.J. Smith run for a loss of 1 yard B.J. Smith fumbled, forced by James Patterson, recovered by Buff Tyrone Hill , return for 93 yds (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18TD
14 plays · 69 yds · 6:0244% → 70%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
44.2%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 4 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+9
45.5%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Sidney Davis for 9 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
46.8%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Richard HallmanSimilar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+17
45.0%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Jabir Daughtry-Frye for 17 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
48.2%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Sidney Davis for 3 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+7
48.3%
Sawyer Smith run for 7 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
50.6%
B.J. Smith run for 14 yds to the Buff 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
50.5%
B.J. Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 16Similar
Q3 0:58
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+11
50.5%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Marcus Jones for 11 yds to the Buff 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
50.7%
TROY Penalty, False Start (Kirk Kelley) to the Buff 10Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
50.8%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 7 yds to the Buff 3Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
50.8%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the Buff 2Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
70.3%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 2 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:5736% → 32%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
63.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 4 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
62.9%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-7
64.3%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Marcus Webb for a loss of 7 yards to the Buff 24Similar
Q4 12:16
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+3
67.9%
Evan Finegan punt for 42 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 3 yds to the Buff 27 BUFFALO Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Isaiah King) to the Buff 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20TD
3 plays · 48 yds · 0:5172% → 87%
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
71.8%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
71.4%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+45
86.7%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Sidney Davis for 45 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21TD
12 plays · 69 yds · 4:0116% → 43%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
84.4%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+7
85.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tito Overton for 7 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+10
84.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 10 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+23
85.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jaret Patterson for 23 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
83.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the Troy 28Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
84.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+7
86.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 7 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q4 8:46
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+3
87.5%
Tyree Jackson run for 3 yds to the Troy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
85.6%
Jackson, Tyree pass incomplete to Johnson, Anthony, PENALTY TROY pass interference (Brown, Blace) 15 yards to the TROY3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BUFFALO.Similar
Q4 7:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
85.6%
Tyree Jackson run for no gain to the Troy 3 Tyree Jackson fumbled, recovered by Buff Tyree JacksonSimilar
Q4 7:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
56.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 3 yds for a TD (Tyree Jackson pass to Antonio Nunn for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 3:5670% → 75%
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
69.9%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to B.J. Smith for 3 yds to the Troy 23Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
71.0%
B.J. Smith run for 6 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q4 5:49
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
71.1%
Sawyer Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
72.6%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Damion WillisSimilar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
72.1%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 7
OWN 34
-5
74.7%
Sawyer Smith sacked by Wesley Scott for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 29Similar
Q4 3:28
4TH & 12
OWN 29
0
74.8%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 50 yds, downed at the Buff 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23FUMBLE
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
68.3%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Antione Barker for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 20 Tyree Jackson fumbled, forced by Antione Barker, recovered by Troy Hunter Reese , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24TD
1 play · 20 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
93.9%
Sidney Davis run for 20 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25MISSED FG
16 plays · 66 yds · 1:516% → 4%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
94.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 11 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
93.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
93.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 2 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+15
95.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 15 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-8
94.4%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Antonio Showers for a loss of 8 yards to the Buff 41Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 18
OWN 41
+24
96.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 24 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+22
94.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 22 yds to the Troy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
94.4%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
94.4%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Zac LefebvreSimilar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
95.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+30
95.9%
Adam Mitcheson 30 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Blace BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 26END OF 4TH QUARTER
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:1097% → 97%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
96.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 19Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 12
OWN 19
-1
96.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 18Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 18
-2
97.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:24
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 3 yds for a TD (Tyree Jackson pass to Antonio Nunn for Two-Point Conversion)
-28.7
TD · Q4 3:09
Sidney Davis run for 20 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)
+25.6
TD · Q4 14:13
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 2 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)
+19.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com