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FIU

Florida International 35 at Toledo 32

TOL
2018 · Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl · Dec 21, 2018 · Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadFIU aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreFIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:45 · Eli Peters run for 28 yds to the FlaIn 10 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 96Pregame prior+8.6Home team on offense−1.7Garbage-time factor−1.2Score differential−1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:35: Eli Peters pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 7 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +11.7 pts (now 72%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:47: Anthony Jones run for 30 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK) — FIU win probability +21.1 pts (now 60%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:12: Maurice Alexander run for 16 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK) — FIU win probability +16.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:21: Eli Peters pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 2 yds for a TD (Eli Peters pass to Cody Thompson for Two-Point Conversion) — TOL win probability +27.2 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 0:02: Eli Peters pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 43 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +15.1 pts (now 18%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 5 of 6FIU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 9:36FIU 4th & 12 at TOL 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:02TOL 4th & 15 at FIU 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    70.4%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:21FIU 4th & 6 at FIU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:50TOL 4th & 5 at FIU 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    71.4%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    70.9%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:11TOL 4th & 10 at FIU 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%−0.5
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    68.7%−2.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:56FIU 4th & 12 at FIU 4, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−2.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00FIU 4th & 4 at TOL 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    43.3%−2.9
    27% to make
    Punt
    45.4%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:45TOL 4th & 1 at FIU 38, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    52.5%−4.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    52.5%−4.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:16FIU 4th & 1 at FIU 34, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:03TOL 4th & 8 at TOL 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−1.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:29TOL 4th & 5 at FIU 49, down 4
    Close callPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:40FIU 4th & 6 at TOL 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    75.1%−1.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    70.2%−6.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4FIU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 14:37TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:44FIU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:57FIU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:35TOL Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:47FIU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:12FIU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:21TOL Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    30.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    30.5%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:41FIU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:02TOL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.1%−5.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1TD
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:1369% → 69%
Q1 14:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
69.3%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
69.4%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
Q1 14:37
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
69.4%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 2PUNT
12 plays · 36 yds · 4:4531% → 30%
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
69.4%
Christian Alexander run for 8 yds to the FlaIn 23Similar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 2
OWN 23
0
69.4%
Christian Alexander pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+3
69.5%
Christian Alexander run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
69.7%
Maurice Alexander run for no gain to the FlaIn 26Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+1
69.8%
Anthony Jones run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 27Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+26
69.8%
Christian Alexander pass complete to Maurice Alexander for 11 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
69.6%
Christian Alexander pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
69.7%
Napoleon Maxwell run for 2 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 8
OPP 45
-4
69.6%
Maurice Alexander run for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 49Similar
Q1 9:36
4TH & 12
OPP 49
0
70.4%
Stone Wilson punt for 35 yds, downed at the Toled 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:2071% → 71%
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+17
70.6%
Eli Peters pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 17 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
70.7%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+33
70.7%
Eli Peters pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 33 yds to the FlaIn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
71.3%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+1
71.3%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 35Similar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 9
OPP 35
-6
71.4%
Eli Peters sacked by Dorian Hall for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaIn 41Similar
Q1 7:02
4TH & 15
OPP 41
0
70.8%
Bailey Flint punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3429% → 29%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
70.8%
Christian Alexander pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
70.9%
Napoleon Maxwell run for no gain to the FlaIn 20Similar
Q1 5:57
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+4
71.3%
Christian Alexander pass complete to Napoleon Maxwell for 4 yds to the FlaIn 24Similar
Q1 5:21
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
71.5%
Stone Wilson punt for 38 yds, downed at the Toled 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5FG
13 plays · 52 yds · 4:5372% → 73%
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
71.9%
Shakif Seymour run for 5 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+4
72.3%
Shakif Seymour run for 4 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+3
72.2%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
50
+15
72.6%
Eli Peters pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 15 yds to the FlaIn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
72.9%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+7
73.0%
Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 7 yds to the FlaIn 28Similar
Q1 2:14
3RD & 3
OPP 28
-2
72.6%
Eli Peters run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaIn 30Similar
Q1 1:50
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+23
72.2%
Eli Peters pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 23 yds to the FlaIn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
73.3%
Shakif Seymour run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaIn 10Similar
Q1 0:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
73.5%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
72.5%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
72.5%
Jameson Vest 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 6TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:1627% → 34%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
73.1%
Christian Alexander run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 28Similar
Q2 14:39
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
73.0%
Christian Alexander pass complete to CJ Worton for 7 yds to the FlaIn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
72.9%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaIn 30Similar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 15
OWN 30
0
73.3%
Christian Alexander pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 15
OWN 37
+22
73.5%
Christian Alexander run for 7 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
72.5%
TOLEDO Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Toled 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
71.9%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to Austin Maloney for 14 yds to the Toled 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
71.8%
Anthony Jones run for 9 yds to the Toled 10Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+4
71.8%
Anthony Jones run for 4 yds to the Toled 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
65.7%
Anthony Jones run for 6 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:1068% → 68%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
67.8%
Bryant Koback run for 9 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+3
69.0%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
68.8%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the Toled 42Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
68.2%
Eli Peters pass complete to Reggie Gilliam for 4 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 6
OWN 46
-1
68.2%
Eli Peters pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:3432% → 30%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
68.1%
Anthony Jones run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 8Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 8
OWN 8
-4
68.3%
Christian Alexander run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaIn 4 Christian Alexander fumbled, recovered by FlaInSimilar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 12
OWN 4
0
69.4%
Christian Alexander pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:56
4TH & 12
OWN 4
+21
69.9%
Stone Wilson punt for 52 yds for a 1ST down , Diontae Johnson returns for 21 yds to the FlaIn 25 for a 1ST down FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the FlaIn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9FUMBLE
4 plays · 16 yds · 1:2771% → 70%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
70.7%
Eli Peters pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 13 yds to the FlaIn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
70.7%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 5Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
70.7%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaIn 7Similar
Q2 6:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
70.0%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 4 Bryant Koback fumbled, forced by Olin Cushion III, recovered by FlaIn Rishard DamesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 96 yds · 3:0132% → 46%
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
68.3%
Napoleon Maxwell run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 6Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+4
68.5%
Napoleon Maxwell run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 10Similar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 4
OWN 10
+5
69.1%
Christian Alexander pass complete to Sterling Palmer for 5 yds to the FlaIn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+41
68.0%
Christian Alexander run for 41 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
65.1%
D'Vonte Price run for 8 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 2
OPP 36
0
64.7%
Christian Alexander pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:57
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+36
53.9%
Christian Alexander pass complete to Sterling Palmer for 36 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 1:3058% → 58%
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
57.7%
Shakif Seymour run for 6 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
59.1%
Shakif Seymour run for 7 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
58.2%
Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 16 yds to the FlaIn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
60.6%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
60.4%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
58.2%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 12DOWNS
9 plays · 36 yds · 0:5045% → 46%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
55.4%
Christian Alexander pass complete to Tony Gaiter IV for 9 yds to the FlaIn 29Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+5
53.8%
Christian Alexander pass complete to Maurice Alexander for 5 yds to the FlaIn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+16
54.1%
Christian Alexander pass complete to Tony Gaiter IV for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
50
0
52.0%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Illegal Touching ( Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
50
+5
52.1%
TOLEDO Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Toled 45Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+9
51.2%
Christian Alexander run for a loss of 8 yards to the Toled 44 Christian Alexander run for 9 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
52.2%
Christian Alexander pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
54.0%
Christian Alexander pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:2057% → 72%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
56.6%
Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 15 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
58.8%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Toled 45Similar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 5
OWN 45
+8
59.3%
Bryant Koback run for 8 yds to the FlaIn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
59.9%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 46Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+7
59.8%
Eli Peters run for 7 yds to the FlaIn 39Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+1
59.3%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 38Similar
Q3 11:45
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+28
56.6%
Eli Peters run for 28 yds to the FlaIn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
60.2%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 7Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
71.9%
Eli Peters pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 7 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1333% → 32%
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.9%
Christian Alexander pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
67.1%
D'Vonte Price run for 8 yds to the FlaIn 33Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
66.3%
D'Vonte Price run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 34Similar
Q3 9:16
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
67.7%
Stone Wilson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Diontae Johnson at the Toled 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0869% → 66%
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
68.6%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+2
68.3%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
67.0%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:03
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
66.4%
Bailey Flint punt for 54 yds , Maurice Alexander returns for no gain to the FlaIn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 16TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:5333% → 60%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
66.8%
Christian Alexander pass complete to Napoleon Maxwell for 6 yds to the FlaIn 26Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-1
65.9%
Napoleon Maxwell run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaIn 25Similar
Q3 7:14
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+21
67.7%
Christian Alexander pass complete to Tony Gaiter IV for 21 yds Tony Gaiter IV fumbled, recovered by FlaIn Maurice Alexander for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
63.2%
Anthony Jones run for no gain to the FlaIn 46Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+13
64.0%
Christian Alexander run for 13 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
62.0%
Christian Alexander pass complete to Maurice Alexander for 7 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+4
61.1%
Anthony Jones run for 4 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
40.0%
Anthony Jones run for 30 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:1647% → 47%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
47.4%
Eli Peters pass complete to Drew Rosi for 6 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
50.0%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
49.6%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
47.6%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+5
45.8%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryant Koback for 5 yds to the FlaIn 49Similar
Q3 1:29
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
46.5%
Bailey Flint punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Maurice Alexander at the FlaIn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 18TD
9 plays · 88 yds · 5:0858% → 85%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
42.3%
Christian Alexander run for no gain to the FlaIn 12Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+3
41.4%
Anthony Jones run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 15Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+14
42.8%
Christian Alexander pass complete to Austin Maloney for 14 yds to the FlaIn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
39.6%
Napoleon Maxwell run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 31Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+19
39.0%
D'Vonte Price run for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
50
+23
35.2%
Christian Alexander pass complete to Sterling Palmer for 23 yds to the Toled 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
32.2%
D'Vonte Price run for 4 yds to the Toled 23Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+7
31.6%
Christian Alexander pass complete to Maurice Alexander for 7 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
14.9%
Maurice Alexander run for 16 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:5120% → 48%
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
20.1%
TOLEDO Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Toled 20Similar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+9
19.7%
Eli Peters pass complete to Reggie Gilliam for 9 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+16
17.2%
Eli Peters run for 16 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
18.2%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 5
50
+6
18.9%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryant Koback for 6 yds to the FlaIn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
19.3%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the FlaIn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
21.0%
Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 12 yds to the FlaIn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
20.9%
Eli Peters pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 10 yds to the FlaIn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
20.5%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
20.3%
Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 5 yds to the FlaIn 2Similar
Q4 7:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
47.5%
Eli Peters pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 2 yds for a TD (Eli Peters pass to Cody Thompson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 20TD
17 plays · 83 yds · 6:2166% → 96%
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
34.2%
Christian Alexander run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 19Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+2
32.6%
Napoleon Maxwell run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 21Similar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+9
31.8%
Christian Alexander run for 9 yds to the FlaIn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
28.3%
Christian Alexander pass complete to Maurice Alexander for no gain to the FlaIn 30Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+1
26.9%
Anthony Jones run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 31Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+32
26.3%
Christian Alexander pass complete to Bryce Singleton for 32 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
20.3%
Anthony Jones run for 5 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
16.7%
Anthony Jones run for no gain to the Toled 32Similar
Q4 2:46
3RD & 5
OPP 32
-1
17.6%
D'Vonte Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 33Similar
Q4 2:40
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+6
18.9%
Christian Alexander pass complete to Tony Gaiter IV for 6 yds to the Toled 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
13.1%
Anthony Jones run for 8 yds to the Toled 19Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+1
8.3%
Anthony Jones run for 1 yd to the Toled 18Similar
Q4 0:41
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+18
4.1%
Anthony Jones run for 18 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:333% → 18%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
2.7%
Eli Peters pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 9 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
3.1%
Eli Peters pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 8 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
3.1%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+15
3.0%
Shakif Seymour run for 15 yds to the FlaIn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
18.2%
Eli Peters pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 43 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:21
Eli Peters pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 2 yds for a TD (Eli Peters pass to Cody Thompson for Two-Point Conversion)
+27.2
TD · Q3 3:47
Anthony Jones run for 30 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)
-21.1
TD · Q4 11:12
Maurice Alexander run for 16 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)
-16.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com