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MRSH

Marshall 38 at South Florida 20

USF
2018 · Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl · Dec 20, 2018 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreMRSH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:43 · Trent Schneider punt for 60 yds, downed at the Marsh 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 165Home team on offense−38.8Score differential−21.6Pregame prior−1.0Garbage-time factor−14.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−9.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:43: Tyre McCants pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 38 yds for a TD, (Coby Weiss KICK) — USF win probability +5.3 pts (now 41%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:25: Brenden Knox run for 8 yds for a TD, (Justin Rohrwasser KICK) — MRSH win probability +4.9 pts (now 68%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:30: Keion Davis run for 5 yds for a TD (Justin Rohrwasser KICK) — MRSH win probability +11.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:16: Blake Barnett pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 33 yds for a TD (Coby Weiss KICK) — USF win probability +13.2 pts (now 26%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:24: Keion Davis run for 16 yds for a TD (Justin Rohrwasser KICK) — MRSH win probability +6.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 9 of 11MRSH made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 13:47MRSH 4th & 7 at USF 29, tied
    Close callWent for it · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    56.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    55.7%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:35USF 4th & 9 at USF 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:43MRSH 4th & 16 at MRSH 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:01USF 4th & 6 at USF 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:55USF 4th & 9 at USF 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:05MRSH 4th & 11 at USF 44, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    67.0%−1.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:01USF 4th & 15 at MRSH 29, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.1%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    30.9%
    58% to make
    Punt
    28.7%−2.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:59MRSH 4th & 6 at USF 34, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    71.3%−0.5
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.2%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:40USF 4th & 5 at USF 6, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−0.9
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:04USF 4th & 4 at MRSH 4, down 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.2%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    14.7%−4.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:45USF 4th & 1 at MRSH 46, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    15.8%−3.7
    23% to make
    Punt
    17.3%−2.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:41USF 4th & 6 at MRSH 40, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    17.2%−1.0
    34% to make
    Punt
    17.6%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:13USF 4th & 13 at MRSH 14, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−1.7
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.6%
    84% to make
    Punt
    10.6%−6.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:19MRSH 4th & 5 at USF 11, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.2%
    87% to make
    Punt
    76.0%−8.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:41MRSH 4th & 13 at USF 43, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.9%−1.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    76.9%−1.0
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:11USF 4th & 5 at USF 19, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:43USF 4th & 12 at USF 23, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MRSH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 5:20MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:43MRSH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:43USF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:25MRSH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:30MRSH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:16USF Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:24MRSH Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MRSHDrive 1DOWNS
6 plays · 46 yds · 1:0360% → 60%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+43
39.7%
Brenden Knox run for 43 yds to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
39.8%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Tyre BradySimilar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
39.8%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Armani LeviasSimilar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+3
39.9%
Keion Davis run for 3 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q1 13:47
4TH & 7
OPP 29
0
40.0%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Tyre BradySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0540% → 40%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
40.2%
Jordan Cronkrite run for no gain to the SFla 29Similar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
40.3%
Chris Oladokun pass incomplete to Tyre McCantsSimilar
Q1 13:17
3RD & 10
OWN 29
-5
40.2%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Brad Cecil) to the SFla 24Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 15
OWN 24
+6
40.3%
Chris Oladokun pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for 6 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q1 12:35
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
40.3%
Trent Schneider punt for 48 yds, downed at the Marsh 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:4460% → 59%
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-10
40.5%
MARSHALL Penalty, Offensive Holding (Marcel Williams) to the Marsh 12Similar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 20
OWN 12
+1
40.7%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Simino Walden for 1 yd to the Marsh 13Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 19
OWN 13
+3
40.9%
Brenden Knox run for 3 yds to the Marsh 16Similar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 16
OWN 16
0
41.2%
Isaiah Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:43
4TH & 16
OWN 16
0
41.4%
Robert LeFevre punt for 53 yds, downed at the SFla 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:3541% → 42%
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
41.2%
Chris Oladokun pass complete to Tyre McCants for 10 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
41.7%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+2
41.9%
Chris Oladokun pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for 2 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
41.9%
Chris Oladokun pass incomplete to Stanley ClerveauxSimilar
Q1 9:01
4TH & 6
OWN 45
+9
41.6%
Trent Schneider punt for 45 yds , Marcel Williams returns for 9 yds to the Marsh 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 5TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 3:3058% → 62%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
41.6%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Artie Henry III for 13 yds to the Marsh 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
41.5%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Tyre Brady for 12 yds to the Marsh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
41.2%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offside Defense (Kelvin Pinkney Jr.) to the Marsh 49Similar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 5
OWN 49
-5
41.1%
MARSHALL Penalty, Illegal Shift (Xavier Gaines) to the Marsh 44Similar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
41.3%
Isaiah Green run for 2 yds to the Marsh 46Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+6
41.3%
Brenden Knox run for 6 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+11
41.5%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 11 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+27
41.5%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 27 yds to the SFla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
37.9%
Isaiah Green run for 10 yds for a TD, (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · -10 yds · 0:2240% → 39%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-7
39.7%
Blake Barnett sacked by Darius Hodge for a loss of 7 yards to the SFla 33Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 17
OWN 33
+29
39.0%
Blake Barnett run for a loss of 3 yards, Barnett fumbled, recovered by Marsh Darius Hodge, return for 29 yds to the SFla 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 7TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 4:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
34.3%
Anthony Anderson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5236% → 41%
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
35.7%
Johnny Ford run for 8 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+18
36.1%
Johnny Ford run for 18 yds to the Marsh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
36.6%
Johnny Ford run for 3 yds to the Marsh 46Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+5
35.3%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 5 yds to the Marsh 41Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+3
35.2%
Tyre McCants run for 3 yds to the Marsh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
40.5%
Tyre McCants pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 38 yds for a TD, (Coby Weiss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 9TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:0562% → 68%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
38.5%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Obi Obialo for 11 yds to the Marsh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
38.1%
Brenden Knox run for 5 yds to the Marsh 36Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+42
37.5%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Tyre Brady for 42 yds to the SFla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+14
36.7%
Tyre Brady run for 14 yds to the SFla 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
31.8%
Brenden Knox run for 8 yds for a TD, (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:1433% → 32%
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
33.4%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
33.2%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Stanley ClerveauxSimilar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
33.1%
Blake Barnett run for 4 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 4
OWN 32
-5
33.0%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SFla 27Similar
Q2 13:55
4TH & 9
OWN 27
0
32.3%
Trent Schneider punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Marsh 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 11DOWNS
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:3869% → 71%
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
31.2%
Brenden Knox run for 8 yds to the Marsh 40Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 2
OWN 40
0
30.4%
Brenden Knox run for no gain to the Marsh 40Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+6
30.4%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Obi Obialo for 6 yds to the Marsh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
29.8%
Brenden Knox run for 11 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
29.1%
Brenden Knox run for 2 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
28.8%
Isaiah Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 8
OPP 41
-3
28.8%
Brenden Knox run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 44Similar
Q2 10:05
4TH & 11
OPP 44
0
29.2%
Robert LeFevre punt for 41 yds, downed at the SFla 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12DOWNS
12 plays · 58 yds · 1:5629% → 28%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
29.4%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 5 yds to the SFla 8Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 5
OWN 8
0
29.2%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Randall St. FelixSimilar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 5
OWN 8
+22
28.8%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 22 yds to the SFla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
29.4%
Jordan Cronkrite run for no gain to the SFla 30Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+28
30.4%
Tyre McCants run for 13 yds to the Marsh 43 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Nazeeh Johnson) to the Marsh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+18
30.8%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Stanley Clerveaux for 18 yds to the Marsh 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
31.2%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Mitchell WilcoxSimilar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
30.6%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Randall St. FelixSimilar
Q2 8:11
3RD & 10
OPP 24
-5
30.1%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Demetris Harris) to the Marsh 29Similar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 15
OPP 29
0
29.4%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Tyre McCantsSimilar
Q2 8:01
4TH & 15
OPP 29
-10
28.3%
Blake Barnett sacked by Channing Hames for a loss of 10 yards to the Marsh 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:5173% → 74%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
26.6%
Brenden Knox run for 12 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
26.2%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Artie Henry III for 8 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+3
25.7%
Keion Davis run for 3 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
25.6%
Keion Davis run for 3 yds to the SFla 35Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 7
OPP 35
-10
25.2%
MARSHALL Penalty, Offensive Holding (Xavier Gaines) to the SFla 45Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 17
OPP 45
-2
25.5%
Brenden Knox run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 47Similar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 19
OPP 47
+13
25.8%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 13 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q2 3:59
4TH & 6
OPP 34
0
26.0%
Isaiah Green punt for 33 yds, downed at the SFla 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5525% → 24%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
25.2%
Johnny Ford run for no gain to the SFla 1Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+5
25.1%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 5 yds to the SFla 6Similar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 5
OWN 6
0
24.5%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Jernard PhillipsSimilar
Q2 2:40
4TH & 5
OWN 6
+28
24.4%
Trent Schneider punt for 39 yds , Marcel Williams returns for 28 yds to the SFla 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 15TD
3 plays · 17 yds · 1:0876% → 88%
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
23.6%
Keion Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 19Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 12
OPP 19
+14
23.5%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Willie Johnson for 14 yds to the SFla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
12.5%
Keion Davis run for 5 yds for a TD (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16DOWNS
12 plays · 69 yds · 1:0217% → 22%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
16.7%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Stanley Clerveaux for 8 yds to the SFla 35Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 2
OWN 35
-5
17.1%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Donovan Jennings) to the SFla 30Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+14
16.6%
Blake Barnett run for 14 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+27
17.5%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 27 yds to the Marsh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
18.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
18.3%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Randall St. FelixSimilar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+25
17.5%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Stanley Clerveaux for 25 yds to the Marsh 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
18.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
18.3%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Tyre McCantsSimilar
Q2 0:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
21.7%
Coby Weiss 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18FG
15 plays · 61 yds · 5:3718% → 20%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
18.3%
Johnny Ford run for 1 yd to the SFla 26Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+19
17.9%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 19 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
19.3%
Johnny Ford run for 4 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+5
18.8%
Johnny Ford run for 5 yds to the Marsh 46Similar
Q3 13:10
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
19.1%
Blake Barnett run for no gain to the Marsh 46Similar
Q3 12:45
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+2
18.1%
Tyre McCants run for 2 yds to the Marsh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
18.2%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 3 yds to the Marsh 41Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+2
17.7%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 2 yds to the Marsh 39Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 5
OPP 39
-1
17.4%
Blake Barnett sacked by Ty Tyler for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 40Similar
Q3 10:41
4TH & 6
OPP 40
+29
16.8%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 29 yds to the Marsh 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-4
17.7%
Jordan Cronkrite run for a loss of 4 yards to the Marsh 15Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 14
OPP 15
+1
16.9%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 1 yd to the Marsh 14Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 13
OPP 14
0
16.1%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Mitchell WilcoxSimilar
Q3 9:13
4TH & 13
OPP 14
+31
20.0%
Coby Weiss 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 19FG
10 plays · 54 yds · 3:3584% → 90%
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
15.9%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Tyre Brady for 19 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
14.6%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Tyre Brady for 4 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+4
14.3%
Anthony Anderson run for 4 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q3 7:34
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+8
14.1%
Anthony Anderson run for 8 yds to the SFla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+14
13.8%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Marcel Williams for 14 yds to the SFla 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
13.3%
Xavier Gaines pass incomplete to Isaiah GreenSimilar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+2
13.3%
Anthony Anderson run for 2 yds to the SFla 14Similar
Q3 5:47
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+3
13.2%
Isaiah Green run for 3 yds to the SFla 11Similar
Q3 5:19
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+28
10.1%
Justin Rohrwasser 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 1:4413% → 26%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
12.7%
Johnny Ford run for 3 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+5
12.4%
MARSHALL Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the SFla 36Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+7
12.9%
Johnny Ford run for 7 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+24
13.1%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 24 yds to the Marsh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
26.3%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 33 yds for a TD (Coby Weiss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:2080% → 79%
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
20.3%
Anthony Anderson run for 5 yds to the Marsh 45Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+3
19.9%
Keion Davis run for 3 yds to the Marsh 48Similar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+12
20.3%
Anthony Anderson run for 12 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
19.0%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Willie JohnsonSimilar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-3
19.0%
Keion Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 43Similar
Q3 0:52
3RD & 13
OPP 43
0
19.3%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Armani LeviasSimilar
Q3 0:41
4TH & 13
OPP 43
0
21.2%
Robert LeFevre punt for 40 yds, downed at the SFla 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 3:2220% → 15%
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
19.8%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 3 yds to the SFla 6Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+3
19.0%
Johnny Ford run for 3 yds to the SFla 9Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 4
OWN 9
+5
17.5%
Tyre McCants run for 5 yds to the SFla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
18.4%
Blake Barnett run for 2 yds to the SFla 16Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 8
OWN 16
-6
18.0%
Blake Barnett sacked by Channing Hames for a loss of 6 yards to the SFla 10Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 14
OWN 10
+9
16.5%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 9 yds to the SFla 19Similar
Q4 12:11
4TH & 5
OWN 19
0
15.1%
Trent Schneider punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Marsh 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 23TD
12 plays · 64 yds · 5:3684% → 97%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
16.1%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Obi Obialo for 9 yds to the Marsh 45Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+2
13.9%
Anthony Anderson run for 2 yds to the Marsh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
12.8%
Anthony Anderson run for 1 yd to the Marsh 48Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+5
12.3%
Marcel Williams run for 5 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+6
12.1%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Obi Obialo for 6 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
11.2%
Isaiah Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+8
10.8%
Keion Davis run for 8 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+8
10.7%
Anthony Anderson run for 8 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
10.0%
Green, Isaiah pass incomplete to Brady, Tyre, PENALTY MARSHALL ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the SOUFLA30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+4
9.8%
Keion Davis run for 4 yds to the SFla 26Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+10
9.3%
Isaiah Green run for 10 yds to the SFla 16Similar
Q4 6:24
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+16
2.6%
Keion Davis run for 16 yds for a TD (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:384% → 3%
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.7%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Mitchell WilcoxSimilar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
3.3%
Johnny Ford run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 23Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
3.2%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Mitchell WilcoxSimilar
Q4 5:43
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
2.5%
Trent Schneider punt for 60 yds, downed at the Marsh 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
9 plays · 73 yds · 5:0598% → 99%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
2.5%
Keion Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 15Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+3
2.1%
Keion Davis run for 3 yds to the Marsh 18Similar
Q4 4:04
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+11
2.1%
Isaiah Green run for 11 yds to the Marsh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+52
1.7%
Keion Davis run for 52 yds to the SFla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
1.5%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Tyre Brady for 11 yds to the SFla 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
1.2%
Keion Davis run for 1 yd to the SFla 7Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
0.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 8Similar
Q4 0:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
0.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:16
Blake Barnett pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 33 yds for a TD (Coby Weiss KICK)
+13.2
TD · Q2 1:30
Keion Davis run for 5 yds for a TD (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)
-11
TD · Q4 6:24
Keion Davis run for 16 yds for a TD (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)
-6.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com