2018 · DXL Frisco Bowl · Dec 19, 2018 · Toyota Stadium
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Win probability · OHIO
modelOHIO aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playOHIO scoreSDSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:20 · Louie Zervos 30 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q2 9:10: A.J. Ouellette run for 4 yds to the SDSt 27 — OHIO win probability +2.3 pts (now 62%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:57: Nathan Rourke run for 9 yds for a TD (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +6.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 1:37: Timeout SAN DIEGO ST, clock 01:37 — OHIO win probability +2.6 pts (now 73%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:07: Nathan Rourke run for 11 yds for a TD (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +10.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- FG · Q3 11:33: Louie Zervos 26 yd FG GOOD — OHIO win probability +6.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OHIO made the numbers' call on 4 of 5SDSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 8
- Q1 9:10SDSU 4th & 10 at SDSU 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 42.5% before the snapGo for it42.5%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.6%average punt
- Q1 2:20OHIO 4th & 8 at SDSU 13, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.0% before the snapGo for it57.7%−0.230% to convertField goalTheir call57.9%85% to makePunt56.0%−1.9average punt
- Q2 14:52SDSU 4th & 2 at SDSU 38, down 3Close callPunted · 40.7% before the snapGo for it40.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.5%−0.4average punt
- Q2 10:00OHIO 4th & 2 at SDSU 38, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call59.8%57% to convertField goal58.4%−1.338% to makePunt58.6%−1.2average punt
- Q2 6:16SDSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 32, down 10Close callPunted · 30.8% before the snapGo for it31.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.5%−0.8average punt
- Q2 2:45OHIO 4th & 1 at SDSU 41, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call71.9%70% to convertField goal69.3%−2.632% to makePunt69.3%−2.6average punt
- Q2 1:01SDSU 4th & 18 at SDSU 23, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snapGo for it23.3%−2.712% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.0%average punt
- Q3 11:33OHIO 4th & 4 at SDSU 9, up 17Close callKicked a field goal · 86.1% before the snapGo for it85.7%43% to convertField goalTheir call85.3%−0.489% to makePunt77.7%−8.0average punt
- Q3 6:56SDSU 4th & 6 at OHIO 21, down 20Close callWent for it · 5.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.0%−0.338% to convertField goal5.3%74% to makePunt1.0%−4.3average punt
- Q3 2:00OHIO 4th & 8 at midfield, up 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snapGo for it96.3%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.4%average punt
- Q4 14:43SDSU 4th & 10 at SDSU 25, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.1%−0.728% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%average punt
- Q4 9:55SDSU 4th & 6 at SDSU 26, down 27Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.2%average punt
- Q4 6:08SDSU 4th & 3 at OHIO 17, down 27Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−0.351% to convertField goal0.4%80% to makePunt-0.1%−0.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OHIO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q2 7:57OHIO Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.4%97% to makeGo for two69.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:07OHIO Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.4%97% to makeGo for two81.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:41OHIO Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSDSUDrive 1FUMBLE11 plays · 23 yds · 5:3043% → 43%
Q1 13:48
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+8
56.8%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Juwan Washington for 8 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 8
OWN 47
-2
56.5%
Christian Chapman sacked by Brian Arp and Evan Croutch for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 45Similar
Q1 9:10
4TH & 10
OWN 45
+1
57.3%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 35 yds , Papi White returns for 1 yd to the Ohio 21 Papi White fumbled, recovered by Ohio Papi WhiteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 2FG12 plays · 66 yds · 6:3557% → 59%
SDSUDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 2:0641% → 41%
Q2 14:52
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
59.1%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Papi White at the Ohio 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 4TD15 plays · 72 yds · 6:5059% → 69%
Q2 11:30
2ND & 5
OPP 41
-7
60.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSt 48 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Ohio Nathan RourkeSimilar
Q2 10:00
4TH & 2
OPP 38
+7
59.7%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 7 yds to the SDSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:38
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+18
61.3%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 18 yds to the SDSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2932% → 31%
OHIODrive 6INT8 plays · 34 yds · 3:5269% → 73%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
72.9%
Nathan Rourke pass intercepted, touchback. Parker Baldwin return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 3 yds · 0:4929% → 26%
OHIODrive 8TD5 plays · 43 yds · 0:4274% → 83%
SDSUDrive 9END OF HALF3 plays · 11 yds · 0:0719% → 18%
OHIODrive 10FG8 plays · 66 yds · 2:5783% → 93%
Q3 13:30
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+54
83.1%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 54 yds to the SDSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11FUMBLE13 plays · 67 yds · 5:178% → 5%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
91.8%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Juwan Washington for no gain to the SDSt 17Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
-13
93.1%
Fred Trevillion run for a loss of 13 yards to the Ohio 32 Fred Trevillion fumbled, recovered by SDSt Fred TrevillionSimilar
Q3 6:56
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+11
94.4%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Parker Houston for 11 yds to the Ohio 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-5
94.7%
Fred Trevillion run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ohio 16 Fred Trevillion fumbled, recovered by Ohio Sam McKnightSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 12FUMBLE9 plays · 34 yds · 3:1096% → 96%
Q3 4:56
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+15
95.8%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to A.J. Ouellette for 15 yds to the Ohio 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:36
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+11
96.2%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 11 yds to the Ohio 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
4TH & 8
50
0
96.4%
Michael Farkas punt for 37 yds , Garrett Binkley returns for no gain to the SDSt 13 Garrett Binkley fumbled, recovered by SDSt Garrett BinkleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 1:573% → 2%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
97.0%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Parker Houston for 4 yds to the SDSt 17Similar
Q4 14:43
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+31
97.6%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 36 yds, fair catch by DL Knock at the OHIO 39 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Ohio 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 14TD4 plays · 56 yds · 1:4998% → 100%
SDSUDrive 15DOWNS15 plays · 73 yds · 5:520% → 0%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+12
99.8%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 12 yds to the SDSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 5
OWN 27
-10
99.8%
Ryan Agnew sacked by Sam McKnight and Austin Conrad for a loss of 10 yards to the SDSt 17Similar
Q4 9:55
4TH & 6
OWN 26
+7
99.9%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 7 yds to the SDSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+18
99.9%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 18 yds to the Ohio 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+10
99.9%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 10 yds to the Ohio 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 16FUMBLE7 plays · 65 yds · 3:18100% → 100%
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
100.0%
Rourke, Nathan pass incomplete to Meyer, Andrew, PENALTY SANDIEGOST pass interference 15 yards to the SANDIEGOST34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIO.Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+8
100.0%
A.J. Ouellette run for 8 yds to the SDSt 18 A.J. Ouellette fumbled, recovered by SDSt Kyree WoodsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17Uncategorized9 plays · 66 yds · 1:540% → 0%
Q4 1:00
3RD & 13
OWN 15
+30
100.0%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Isaiah Richardson for 30 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
100.0%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Isaiah Richardson for 13 yds to the Ohio 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+15
100.0%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Isaiah Richardson for 15 yds to the Ohio 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:07
Nathan Rourke run for 11 yds for a TD (Louie Zervos KICK)
+10.3
TD · Q2 7:57
Nathan Rourke run for 9 yds for a TD (Louie Zervos KICK)
+6.4
FG · Q3 11:33
Louie Zervos 26 yd FG GOOD
+6.4