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USU

Utah State 52 at North Texas 13

UNT
2018 · New Mexico Bowl · Dec 15, 2018 · University Stadium (NM)
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:41 · Jordan Love pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 121Home team on offense−33.1Score differential−26.5Pregame prior−7.5Garbage-time factor−9.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:52: DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK) — UNT win probability +4.3 pts (now 41%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:59: Gerold Bright run for 26 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +4.0 pts (now 67%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 12:08: Jordan Love run for 9 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +5.7 pts (now 73%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 9:43: Jordan Love pass complete to Aaren Vaughns for 37 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +8.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 14:50: Kason Martin pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 75 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund PAT BLOCKED) — USU win probability +2.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 5 of 10USU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 13:17UNT 4th & 6 at UNT 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:04USU 4th & 4 at UNT 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    66.2%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:23UNT 4th & 1 at UNT 29, down 7
    Close callPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:36USU 4th & 19 at USU 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−0.7
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00UNT 4th & 2 at UNT 28, down 7
    Close callPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.5%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:11UNT 4th & 23 at UNT 12, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−2.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:29UNT 4th & 9 at USU 48, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:42USU 4th & 7 at USU 5, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00USU 4th & 25 at UNT 25, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    93.9%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:41USU 4th & 4 at UNT 25, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    95.7%−0.3
    66% to make
    Punt
    92.6%−3.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:56UNT 4th & 17 at UNT 28, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−2.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:01USU 4th & 4 at UNT 43, up 25
    Close callPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    96.3%−0.9
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:51UNT 4th & 6 at UNT 48, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:47USU 4th & 22 at USU 24, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−0.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:40UNT 4th & 17 at USU 43, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:17UNT 4th & 9 at USU 31, down 39
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:08USU 4th & 4 at USU 37, up 39
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:16UNT 4th & 3 at USU 44, down 39
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2USU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 14:20USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:52UNT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:59USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:08USU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:43USU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 8:55USU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 14:50UNT Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    5.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:01USU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:30USU Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USUDrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:3166% → 66%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
34.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jalen Greene for 3 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
34.5%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jalen GreeneSimilar
Q1 14:20
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+72
34.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Aaren Vaughns for 72 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5834% → 34%
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.4%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Cudjoe YoungSimilar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
34.4%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Caleb ChumleySimilar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+4
34.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to DeAndre Torrey for 4 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q1 13:17
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+21
34.3%
TEAM punt blocked by Jacoby Wildman blocked by Jacoby WildmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5666% → 66%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
50
+5
34.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Dax Raymond for 5 yds to the NoTex 45Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+1
34.2%
Darwin Thompson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 44Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
34.3%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:04
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
34.3%
Taylor Hintze punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:2735% → 35%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
34.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the NoTex 9Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+11
34.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 11 yds to the NoTex 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
34.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for 6 yds to the NoTex 26Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
34.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Deion Hair-Griffin for 3 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
34.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for no gain to the NoTex 29Similar
Q1 9:23
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
34.5%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:3266% → 65%
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+19
34.5%
Gerold Bright run for 19 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
34.1%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Carson TerrellSimilar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-2
34.1%
Gerold Bright run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 41Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 12
OWN 41
-5
34.3%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (Sean Taylor) to the UthSt 36Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 17
OWN 36
-2
34.6%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 34Similar
Q1 7:36
4TH & 19
OWN 34
0
34.7%
Taylor Hintze punt for 44 yds , Keegan Brewer returns for no gain to the NoTex 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 4:3635% → 41%
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
34.5%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to DeAndre TorreySimilar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+14
34.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Quinetin Jackson for 14 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
34.8%
DeAndre Torrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 35Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
34.6%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Caleb ChumleySimilar
Q1 5:51
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+9
34.3%
Mason Fine run for 9 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
Q1 5:17
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+15
34.8%
UTAH ST Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (Adewale Adeoye) to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
35.7%
DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+15
35.8%
Fine, Mason pass incomplete to Smith, Kelvin, PENALTY UTAHST roughing passer (Wade, Aaron) 15 yards to the UTAHST23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHTEXAS.Similar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
36.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Cudjoe Young for 4 yds to the UthSt 19Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+8
36.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 8 yds to the UthSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
36.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 9 yds to the UthSt 2Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 1
OPP 2
+2
40.8%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7TD
6 plays · 41 yds · 0:3763% → 67%
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
37.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 5 yds to the NoTex 36Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
37.2%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Ron'quavion TarverSimilar
Q1 2:16
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+10
37.5%
Gerold Bright run for 10 yds to the NoTex 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
36.9%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jalen GreeneSimilar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
32.9%
Gerold Bright run for 26 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8INT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5334% → 34%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
34.4%
Quinn Shanbour run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 22 Quinn Shanbour fumbled, recovered by NoTex Quinn ShanbourSimilar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
34.2%
Quinn Shanbour run for no gain to the NoTex 22Similar
Q1 0:47
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+17
33.8%
Quinn Shanbour pass intercepted David Woodward return for 17 yds to the NoTex 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 0:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
32.7%
Jordan Love pass intercepted, touchback. Nate Brooks return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 10DOWNS
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:3134% → 34%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
34.3%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the NoTex 22Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
34.3%
Quinn Shanbour pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:04
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+6
33.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 6 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11Uncategorized
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
33.9%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 50 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for no gain to the UthSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 2:4166% → 73%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
34.1%
Darwin Thompson run for 9 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+22
33.4%
Darwin Thompson run for 22 yds to the NoTex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
32.7%
Darwin Thompson run for 7 yds to the NoTex 40Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 3
OPP 40
0
32.5%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:23
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+5
32.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Dax Raymond for 5 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
32.4%
Gerold Bright run for 3 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+14
32.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jalen Greene for 14 yds to the NoTex 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
32.3%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+9
32.4%
Darwin Thompson run for 9 yds to the NoTex 9Similar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+9
26.7%
Jordan Love run for 9 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -13 yds · 1:4528% → 27%
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-24
27.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 24 yards to the NoTex 1 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NoTex Kelvin SmithSimilar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 34
OWN 1
+10
27.1%
Quinn Shanbour pass complete to Cudjoe Young for 10 yds to the NoTex 11Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 24
OWN 11
-5
26.8%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Jalen Guyton) to the NoTex 6Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 29
OWN 6
+6
26.6%
Quinn Shanbour run for 6 yds to the NoTex 12Similar
Q2 10:11
4TH & 23
OWN 12
0
26.5%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14TD
2 plays · 52 yds · 0:1775% → 83%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
25.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Darwin Thompson for 15 yds to the NoTex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
16.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Aaren Vaughns for 37 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 15INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
19.0%
Quinn Shanbour pass intercepted DJ Williams return for no gain to the UthSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16TD
3 plays · 67 yds · 0:2183% → 81%
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
16.8%
Gerold Bright run for no gain to the UthSt 33Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
16.7%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jordan NathanSimilar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+67
18.6%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jalen Greene for 67 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 3:1516% → 15%
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
15.9%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the NoTex 26Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+14
15.5%
Quinn Shanbour pass complete to Cudjoe Young for 14 yds to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
16.3%
Nic Smith run for 6 yds to the NoTex 46Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+3
15.7%
DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds to the NoTex 49Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
15.8%
Nic Smith run for 2 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
16.3%
Quinn Shanbour pass incomplete to Cudjoe YoungSimilar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
15.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the UthSt 48Similar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
15.1%
Quinn Shanbour pass incomplete to Quinetin JacksonSimilar
Q2 5:29
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
14.7%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 46 yds, downed at the UthSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3884% → 83%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
15.8%
Gerold Bright run for 3 yds to the UthSt 5Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 7
OWN 5
0
16.1%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Ron'quavion TarverSimilar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 7
OWN 5
0
16.9%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Ron'quavion TarverSimilar
Q2 4:42
4TH & 7
OWN 5
+9
17.5%
Taylor Hintze punt for 47 yds , Keegan Brewer returns for 9 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19INT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:3415% → 14%
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
15.2%
Jason Bean run for 8 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+3
16.8%
Jason Bean run for 3 yds to the UthSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
22.2%
Jason Bean run for 3 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 7
OPP 29
0
14.3%
Jason Bean pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+31
13.7%
Jason Bean pass intercepted DJ Williams return for 31 yds to the NoTex 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20END OF HALF
16 plays · 23 yds · 2:5386% → 91%
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
14.3%
Jordan Nathan run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 12
50
+9
14.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Savon Scarver for 9 yds to the NoTex 41Similar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+3
13.2%
Darwin Thompson run for 3 yds to the NoTex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
13.7%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Dax RaymondSimilar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+6
12.5%
Darwin Thompson run for 6 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+4
11.4%
Darwin Thompson run for 4 yds to the NoTex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
10.6%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+8
10.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jalen Greene for 8 yds to the NoTex 20Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+10
8.9%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 10 yds to the NoTex 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
9.3%
Darwin Thompson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 9Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
7.3%
Darwin Thompson run for a loss of 10 yards to the NoTex 19Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
-6
6.7%
Jordan Love sacked by LaDarius Hamilton for a loss of 6 yards to the NoTex 25Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 25
+42
9.3%
Dominik Eberle 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
4.3%
Kason Martin pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 75 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 52 yds · 2:0494% → 95%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
5.6%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 13 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
5.2%
Gerold Bright run for 1 yd to the UthSt 37Similar
Q3 14:04
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+21
5.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jalen Greene for 21 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
4.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 11 yds to the NoTex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
4.6%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jalen GreeneSimilar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+3
4.6%
Gerold Bright run for 3 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+3
4.7%
Darwin Thompson run for 3 yds to the NoTex 25Similar
Q3 12:41
4TH & 4
OPP 25
0
4.6%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:334% → 2%
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
3.5%
Kason Martin pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 9 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
3.6%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
3.3%
Kason Martin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
3.1%
Kason Martin pass incomplete to Cudjoe YoungSimilar
Q3 11:03
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-7
3.0%
Kason Martin sacked by Tipa Galeai for a loss of 7 yards to the NoTex 28 Kason Martin fumbled, forced by Tipa Galeai, recovered by NoTex Kason Martin , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 10:56
4TH & 17
OWN 28
0
2.2%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:4797% → 97%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
3.1%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Savon ScarverSimilar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+11
3.2%
Darwin Thompson run for 11 yds to the NoTex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
3.0%
Darwin Thompson run for 6 yds to the NoTex 43Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 4
OPP 43
0
2.9%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
2.9%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Dax RaymondSimilar
Q3 10:01
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
3.1%
Taylor Hintze punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 25DOWNS
11 plays · 28 yds · 4:013% → 1%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
2.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for 7 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+6
2.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for 6 yds to the NoTex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
2.3%
Kason Martin pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 2 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+7
2.3%
Kason Martin pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 7 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+2
2.3%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
2.1%
Kason Martin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-1
2.0%
Nic Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 43Similar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 11
OWN 43
+5
2.0%
UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (DJ Williams) to the NoTex 48Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 6
OWN 48
0
1.9%
Jason Bean run for no gain to the NoTex 48Similar
Q3 5:51
4TH & 6
OWN 48
-6
1.4%
Quinn Shanbour sacked by Tipa Galeai for a loss of 6 yards to the NoTex 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 26TD
4 plays · 42 yds · 0:4099% → 99%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
1.5%
Gerold Bright run for 1 yd to the NoTex 41Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
1.5%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:11
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+38
1.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jalen Greene for 38 yds to the NoTex 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
1.0%
Gerold Bright run for 3 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 27INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
1.5%
Quinn Shanbour pass intercepted Aaron Wade return for 1 yd to the UthSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 1:1499% → 98%
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-16
1.2%
UTAH ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Aaron Wade) to the UthSt 20Similar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 27
OWN 20
+2
1.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 2 yds to the UthSt 22Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 25
OWN 22
+2
1.2%
Darwin Thompson run for 2 yds to the UthSt 24Similar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 23
OWN 24
0
1.2%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:47
4TH & 22
OWN 24
0
1.6%
Taylor Hintze punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 29PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:531% → 1%
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
1.3%
Nic Smith run for 4 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+37
1.1%
Nic Smith run for 37 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
1.3%
Nic Smith run for no gain to the UthSt 36Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
1.1%
UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Tipa Galeai) to the UthSt 32Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+3
1.1%
Kason Martin pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 3 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q3 0:59
3RD & 3
OPP 29
-14
0.8%
Kason Martin run for a loss of 14 yards to the UthSt 43 Kason Martin fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by NoTex Kason MartinSimilar
Q3 0:40
4TH & 17
OPP 43
0
0.7%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 30TD
15 plays · 90 yds · 6:3499% → 100%
Q3 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
0.7%
Gerold Bright run for 2 yds to the UthSt 12Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+9
0.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 9 yds to the UthSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
0.6%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+21
0.6%
Gerold Bright run for 21 yds to the UthSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
0.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 4 yds to the UthSt 46Similar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+4
0.5%
Gerold Bright run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 2
50
+4
0.5%
Gerold Bright run for 4 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
0.4%
Gerold Bright run for 5 yds to the NoTex 41Similar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+15
0.4%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (William LeMasters) to the NoTex 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
0.3%
Darwin Thompson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 24Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+4
0.3%
Darwin Thompson run for 4 yds to the NoTex 20Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+6
0.3%
Darwin Thompson run for 6 yds to the NoTex 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
0.3%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+1
0.2%
Darwin Thompson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 13Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+13
0.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 13 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 31DOWNS
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:430% → 0%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
0.1%
Anthony Wyche run for 13 yds to the UthSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
0.1%
Anthony Wyche run for 8 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+7
0.1%
Anthony Wyche run for 7 yds to the UthSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
0.1%
Anthony Wyche run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 34Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 12
OPP 34
0
0.1%
Kason Martin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 12
OPP 34
+3
0.1%
Evan Johnson run for 3 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q4 5:17
4TH & 9
OPP 31
0
0.1%
Kason Martin pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 32PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:52100% → 100%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
0.2%
Darwin Thompson run for 4 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+3
0.2%
Darwin Thompson run for 3 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 3
OWN 38
-1
0.1%
Darwin Thompson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 37Similar
Q4 3:08
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
0.1%
Taylor Hintze punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Keegan Brewer at the NoTex 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 33Uncategorized
6 plays · 48 yds · 2:440% → 0%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
0.1%
Kason Martin pass complete to Keegan Brewer for 12 yds to the NoTex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
0.1%
Anthony Wyche run for 17 yds to the NoTex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
0.1%
Anthony Wyche run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 47Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+6
0.0%
Evan Johnson run for 6 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+3
0.0%
Kason Martin pass complete to Cudjoe Young for 3 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
Q4 0:16
4TH & 3
OPP 44
+12
0.0%
Anthony Wyche run for 12 yds to the UthSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:43
Jordan Love pass complete to Aaren Vaughns for 37 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)
-8.5
TD · Q2 12:08
Jordan Love run for 9 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)
-5.7
TD · Q1 2:52
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK)
+4.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com