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NEV

Nevada 29 at UNLV 34

UNLV
2018 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2018 · Sam Boyd Stadium
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Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-1UNLV 11.1%Ramiz Ahmed 29 yd FG GOODAWAY 23 - HOME 0 · Q2 14:12
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:12 · Ramiz Ahmed 29 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 47Pregame prior−27.4Home team on offense−15.2Score differential−5.8Garbage-time factor−2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9Blowout margin−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:47: Armani Rogers pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo for 18 yds for a TD (Evan Pantels KICK) — UNLV win probability +4.7 pts (now 22%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:34: Armani Rogers run for 1 yd for a TD (Evan Pantels KICK) — UNLV win probability +8.6 pts (now 34%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:46: Armani Rogers pass complete to Noah Bean for 1 yd for a TD (Evan Pantels KICK) — UNLV win probability +21.1 pts (now 52%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 11:21: Ramiz Ahmed 36 yd FG GOOD — NEV win probability +7.2 pts (now 61%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:34: Armani Rogers run for 3 yds for a TD Timeout UNLV, clock 02:34 (Two-Point Conversion failed) — UNLV win probability +29.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 7 of 8NEV made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00UNLV 4th & 2 at UNLV 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:57UNLV 4th & 4 at NEV 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    20.1%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    20.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:14NEV 4th & 2 at UNLV 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    78.9%−0.2
    68% to make
    Punt
    77.8%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:14UNLV 4th & 9 at UNLV 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:12NEV 4th & 4 at UNLV 12, up 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.0%−0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    84.4%−2.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:31UNLV 4th & 8 at NEV 38, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.2%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    13.9%−0.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    13.9%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:47NEV 4th & 9 at NEV 26, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:42UNLV 4th & 2 at NEV 49, down 9
    Close callPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:41NEV 4th & 9 at NEV 21, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:36NEV 4th & 9 at UNLV 9, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−1.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    62.5%−7.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00NEV 4th & 6 at UNLV 42, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    74.2%−1.5
    30% to make
    Punt
    75.5%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:36UNLV 4th & 9 at UNLV 43, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−1.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:10NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 31, up 5
    Close callPunted · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:46NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 34, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%−2.0
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:39UNLV 4th & 13 at UNLV 13, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−5.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00NEV 4th & 1 at UNLV 45, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    44.4%−7.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    46.9%−4.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:21NEV 4th & 11 at UNLV 19, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−4.8
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.4%
    77% to make
    Punt
    33.2%−14.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:15UNLV 4th & 14 at UNLV 12, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−6.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NEV made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:03NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:14NEV Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:46NEV Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:31UNLV Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:47UNLV Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:34UNLV Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:46UNLV Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:34UNLV Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    80.2%−1.0
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    81.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNLVDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
16.7%
Lexington Thomas run for 2 yds to the UNLV 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
16.7%
Lexington Thomas run for 5 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
16.7%
Armani Rogers run for 1 yd to the UNLV 33Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
16.7%
Hayes Hicken punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2TD
4 plays · 79 yds · 1:1883% → 83%
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+41
17.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 41 yds to the UNLV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
17.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+33
17.3%
Kelton Moore run for 33 yds to the UNLV 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
17.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 5 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3DOWNS
8 plays · 47 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
17.5%
Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd to the UNLV 18Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+25
17.5%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Brandon Presley for 10 yds to the UNLV 28 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, personal foul (Jomon Dotson) to the UNLV 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
17.6%
Armani Rogers run for 15 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
17.7%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Brandon Presley for 5 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+1
17.7%
Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd to the Nevad 36Similar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 4
OPP 36
0
17.7%
Armani Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:57
4TH & 4
OPP 36
0
17.6%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Brandon PresleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 3:1182% → 84%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
18.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 4 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+2
17.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kelton Moore for 2 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+26
17.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 26 yds to the UNLV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
17.8%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+4
17.8%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 2
OPP 24
0
17.9%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:14
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+24
16.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Cole Turner for 24 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
17.2%
Lexington Thomas run for 6 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
17.4%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 4 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
17.3%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Xzaviar Campbell for 9 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+3
17.6%
Lexington Thomas run for 3 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
17.6%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo for 2 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 8
OWN 49
-1
17.6%
Xzaviar Campbell run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 48Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
17.5%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Lexington ThomasSimilar
Q1 6:14
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
17.4%
Hayes Hicken punt for 32 yds, downed at the Nevad 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:1784% → 88%
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
16.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kelton Moore for no gain to the Nevad 20Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
16.5%
UNLV Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Nevad 25Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+17
16.4%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 17 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
16.2%
Toa Taua run for 6 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 4
OWN 48
0
16.2%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+6
16.2%
Toa Taua run for 6 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
16.1%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Kaleb Fossum, broken up by Roger MannSimilar
Q1 0:46
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+46
12.4%
Kelton Moore run for 46 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · -7 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
13.8%
Max Gilliam run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 18 Max Gilliam fumbled, recovered by Nevad Nephi SewellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2488% → 89%
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
12.3%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Trae Carter-Wells for no gain to the UNLV 18Similar
Q1 0:36
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
12.4%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+6
12.2%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 6 yds to the UNLV 12Similar
Q2 14:12
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+29
11.1%
Ramiz Ahmed 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4112% → 17%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
12.3%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Mekhi Stevenson for 20 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, personal foul (Dameon Baber) to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
13.0%
Lexington Thomas run for 3 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 7
OPP 37
-1
13.2%
Armani Rogers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 38Similar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
13.1%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Mekhi StevensonSimilar
Q2 12:31
4TH & 8
OPP 38
+38
16.7%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Lexington Thomas for 38 yds for a TD (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
14.6%
Ty Gangi pass intercepted Jocquez Kalili return for no gain to the UNLV 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 2:3616% → 22%
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
16.2%
Lexington Thomas run for 7 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+5
16.5%
Lexington Thomas run for 5 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
16.7%
Evan Owens run for 9 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+33
17.0%
Evan Owens run for 33 yds to the Nevad 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
17.3%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Mekhi StevensonSimilar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+18
22.0%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo for 18 yds for a TD (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
20.9%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 23Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-1
21.2%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 22Similar
Q2 9:47
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+4
21.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 4 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q2 9:47
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
21.7%
Quinton Conaway punt for 31 yds, downed at the UNLV 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
21.7%
Armani Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+2
21.6%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Lexington Thomas for 2 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+6
21.1%
Armani Rogers run for 6 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q2 7:42
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
21.4%
Hayes Hicken punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
20.0%
Kelton Moore run for 1 yd to the Nevad 21Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
20.1%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
20.6%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Kelton Moore, broken up by Bailey LaolagiSimilar
Q2 6:41
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
20.9%
Quinton Conaway punt for 27 yds, downed at the Nevad 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15TD
7 plays · 48 yds · 2:0922% → 34%
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+29
21.9%
Tyleek Collins run for 29 yds to the Nevad 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
22.7%
Armani Rogers run for 5 yds to the Nevad 14Similar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+2
22.7%
Lexington Thomas run for 2 yds to the Nevad 12Similar
Q2 5:43
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+9
21.9%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 9 yds to the Nevad 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
22.7%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 2 yds to the Nevad 1Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
33.8%
Armani Rogers run for 1 yd for a TD (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16FG
16 plays · 66 yds · 2:5871% → 76%
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for no gain to the Nevad 25Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
28.7%
Kelton Moore run for 12 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
27.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 10 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
26.8%
Kelton Moore run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 7
50
0
26.6%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q2 3:34
3RD & 7
50
+8
27.1%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 8 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
26.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 13 yds to the UNLV 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
24.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kelton Moore for 9 yds to the UNLV 20Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+10
24.8%
Kelton Moore run for 10 yds to the UNLV 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
24.8%
Ty Gangi run for 1 yd to the UNLV 9Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
25.5%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
26.7%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
24.0%
Ramiz Ahmed 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
25.2%
Armani Rogers run for 3 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
23.6%
Kelton Moore run for 4 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+2
22.6%
Kelton Moore run for 2 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+13
22.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 13 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
22.2%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
22.3%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the UNLV 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 42
0
22.6%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
23.9%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Romeo Doubs, broken up by Jocquez KaliliSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0027% → 25%
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
27.4%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 5 yds to the UNLV 47Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 5
OWN 47
-1
28.0%
Lexington Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 46Similar
Q3 12:36
3RD & 6
OWN 46
-3
26.7%
Lexington Thomas run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 43Similar
Q3 12:36
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
24.8%
Hayes Hicken punt for 34 yds, downed at the Nevad 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
24.9%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the Nevad 23Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
25.1%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Kaleb FossumSimilar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 10
OWN 23
-5
26.0%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Trae Carter-Wells) to the Nevad 18Similar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 15
OWN 18
+13
26.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Toa Taua for 13 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q3 11:10
4TH & 2
OWN 31
+2
26.0%
Quinton Conaway punt for 58 yds , Tyleek Collins returns for 2 yds to the UNLV 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 21TD
11 plays · 87 yds · 4:5326% → 52%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
26.3%
Lexington Thomas run for 2 yds to the UNLV 15Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+7
26.4%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Kendal Keys for 7 yds to the UNLV 22Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+1
25.9%
Armani Rogers run for 1 yd to the UNLV 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
26.6%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Drew Tejchman for 8 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+28
28.3%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 28 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
29.8%
Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd to the Nevad 40Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+19
29.8%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Mekhi Stevenson for 19 yds to the Nevad 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
31.2%
Armani Rogers run for 5 yds to the Nevad 16Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+13
31.2%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 13 yds to the Nevad 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
31.2%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 2 yds to the Nevad 1Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
52.3%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Noah Bean for 1 yd for a TD (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
45.4%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 24Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
45.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 1 yd to the Nevad 25Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
47.1%
Kelton Moore run for 9 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q3 4:46
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
46.5%
Quinton Conaway punt for 50 yds, downed at the UNLV 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0049% → 45%
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
48.5%
Lexington Thomas run for 2 yds to the UNLV 18Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 8
OWN 18
-5
48.2%
UNLV Penalty, false start (Matt Brayton) to the UNLV 13Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 13
OWN 13
0
47.9%
Armani Rogers run for no gain to the UNLV 13Similar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 13
OWN 13
0
46.3%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Darren Woods Jr.Similar
Q3 2:39
4TH & 13
OWN 13
0
45.4%
Hayes Hicken punt for 54 yds, downed at the Nevad 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 24FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 4:3352% → 61%
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
47.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 13 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
44.7%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+6
45.7%
Toa Taua run for 6 yds to the UNLV 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+2
45.4%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+3
47.5%
Ty Gangi run for 3 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+24
44.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 24 yds to the UNLV 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
42.7%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-2
43.1%
Kelton Moore run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 20Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 20
+1
45.8%
Kelton Moore run for 1 yd to the UNLV 19Similar
Q4 11:21
4TH & 11
OPP 19
+36
38.6%
Ramiz Ahmed 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0041% → 37%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
40.5%
Evan Owens run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 15Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 11
OWN 15
-5
40.0%
UNLV Penalty, false start (Justin Polu) to the UNLV 10Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 16
OWN 10
+4
40.0%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo for 4 yds to the UNLV 14Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 12
OWN 14
-2
38.0%
Armani Rogers sacked by Malik Reed for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 12Similar
Q4 11:15
4TH & 14
OWN 12
0
36.6%
Hayes Hicken punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 26INT
5 plays · 33 yds · 0:0065% → 68%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-15
35.5%
GANGI, Ty pass complete to DOUBS, Romeo for 2 yards to the UNR47 (KALILI,Jocquez;FRANCIS,Greg), PENALTY UNR personal foul 15 yards to the UNR30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 25
OWN 30
+14
38.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 14 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+6
36.5%
Kelton Moore run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 5
50
+24
35.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Trae Carter-Wells for 24 yds to the UNLV 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
32.4%
Kelton Moore run for 4 yds to the UNLV 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 27TD
15 plays · 73 yds · 3:2844% → 92%
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
44.1%
Lexington Thomas run for 5 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+3
47.1%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 3 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+3
45.5%
Armani Rogers run for 3 yds to the UNLV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
46.2%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Brandon PresleySimilar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+12
45.6%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Brandon Presley for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
50
+7
49.8%
Evan Owens run for 7 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+3
50.5%
Evan Owens run for 3 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+28
50.4%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo for 28 yds to the Nevad 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
56.6%
Armani Rogers run for 6 yds to the Nevad 6Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+4
58.3%
Evan Owens run for 4 yds to the Nevad 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
58.9%
Evan Owens run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 3Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
92.4%
Armani Rogers run for 3 yds for a TD Timeout UNLV, clock 02:34 (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 28INT
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:0010% → 13%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
90.1%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 8 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
87.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kelton Moore for 5 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
89.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 15 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
87.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kelton Moore for 3 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+15
87.1%
Ty Gangi pass intercepted Javin White return for no gain to the UNLV 44 UNLV Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Javin White) to the UNLV 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
94.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 17Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 11
OWN 17
-1
94.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:34
Armani Rogers run for 3 yds for a TD Timeout UNLV, clock 02:34 (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+29.1
TD · Q3 4:46
Armani Rogers pass complete to Noah Bean for 1 yd for a TD (Evan Pantels KICK)
+21.1
TD · Q2 3:34
Armani Rogers run for 1 yd for a TD (Evan Pantels KICK)
+8.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com