2018 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2018 · University Stadium (NM)
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Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreWYO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:32 · Tyson Dyer punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wyom 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:51: Nico Evans run for 30 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +8.4 pts (now 76%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- FG · Q2 3:08: Andrew Shelley 25 yd FG GOOD — UNM win probability +3.1 pts (now 29%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
- PUNT · Q3 12:09: Tyson Dyer punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Austin Conway at the Wyom 10 — WYO win probability +2.5 pts (now 75%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
- FG · Q3 5:00: Cooper Rothe 37 yd FG GOOD — WYO win probability +8.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:32: Austin Conway run for 11 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +6.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 9 of 11WYO made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 12:44UNM 4th & 16 at UNM 19, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snapGo for it33.5%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.6%average punt
- Q1 11:20WYO 4th & 5 at UNM 44, up 7Close callPunted · 66.4% before the snapGo for it66.4%41% to convertField goal66.2%−0.227% to makePuntTheir call66.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 10:22UNM 4th & 8 at UNM 14, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snapGo for it33.4%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.6%average punt
- Q1 8:23WYO 4th & 6 at UNM 39, up 7Close callPunted · 66.5% before the snapGo for it66.6%40% to convertField goal66.4%−0.236% to makePuntTheir call66.5%−0.2average punt
- Q1 5:39UNM 4th & 6 at WYO 40, down 7Close callPunted · 34.3% before the snapGo for it34.4%40% to convertField goal34.1%−0.334% to makePuntTheir call34.2%−0.2average punt
- Q2 8:44UNM 4th & 9 at UNM 21, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snapGo for it24.5%−1.330% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.7%average punt
- Q2 6:02WYO 4th & 11 at WYO 26, up 14Numbers favored punt by 1.8 ptsWent for it · 74.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call73.6%−1.825% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt75.3%average punt
- Q2 0:50WYO 4th & 29 at UNM 49, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.0% before the snapGo for it72.7%−1.17% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.8%average punt
- Q3 15:00UNM 4th & 10 at UNM 36, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snapGo for it24.5%−1.029% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.5%average punt
- Q3 13:39WYO 4th & 12 at WYO 16, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snapGo for it71.1%−1.922% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.0%average punt
- Q3 12:09UNM 4th & 11 at WYO 46, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snapGo for it24.9%−0.727% to convertField goal24.4%−1.223% to makePuntTheir call25.6%average punt
- Q3 5:00WYO 4th & 12 at UNM 20, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.7% before the snapGo for it75.7%−2.022% to convertField goalTheir call77.7%75% to makePunt70.5%−7.2average punt
- Q3 5:00UNM 4th & 20 at UNM 15, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snapGo for it13.2%−2.79% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.8%average punt
- Q3 3:34WYO 4th & 8 at WYO 40, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.3% before the snapGo for it86.1%−0.834% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.9%average punt
- Q3 1:40UNM 4th & 5 at UNM 6, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snapGo for it12.5%−0.638% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.1%average punt
- Q4 12:32UNM 4th & 9 at UNM 26, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snapGo for it2.6%−0.430% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.1%average punt
- Q4 6:03UNM 4th & 5 at UNM 22, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 4:19WYO 4th & 9 at WYO 21, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q4 1:16UNM 4th & 5 at UNM 46, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 12:44WYO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.0%97% to makeGo for two66.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:51WYO Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.9%97% to makeGo for two71.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:32WYO Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.7%97% to makeGo for two97.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:24WYO Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWYODrive 1TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1666% → 66%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 2PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
WYODrive 3PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 11:20
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
33.7%
Tyler Vander Waal pass incomplete to Ayden Eberhardt, broken up by Stanley Barnwell Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 10:22
4TH & 8
OWN 14
+1
33.7%
Tyson Dyer punt for 41 yds , Austin Conway returns for 1 yd to the Wyom 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 5PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q1 8:23
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
33.7%
Ryan Galovich punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Marcus Hayes at the NMex 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 6PUNT12 plays · 50 yds · 0:0034% → 35%
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
34.1%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Emmanuel Harris for 3 yds to the NMex 24Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+15
33.8%
JONES, Sheriron pass incomplete to HART-JOHNSON, D, PENALTY WY pass interference (HALLIBURTON, A.) 15 yards to the NM40, 1ST DOWN NM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:39
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
34.5%
Tyson Dyer punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Austin Conway at the Wyom 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 7TD13 plays · 90 yds · 6:4866% → 76%
UNMDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q2 8:44
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+12
25.4%
Tyson Dyer punt for 64 yds , Austin Conway returns for 12 yds to the Wyom 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 9DOWNS5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4676% → 75%
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-8
24.3%
Tyler Vander Waal sacked by DaQuan Baker for a loss of 8 yards to the Wyom 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 10FG5 plays · 23 yds · 2:0226% → 29%
Q2 5:10
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+15
25.6%
JONES, Sheriron pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, Marcu, PENALTY WY pass interference (WINGARD, Andrew) 15 yards to the WY11, 1ST DOWN NM, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 11PUNT11 plays · 26 yds · 2:1873% → 74%
Q2 3:08
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
26.9%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Raghib Ismail Jr. for 15 yds to the Wyom 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+12
26.0%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Austin Conway for 12 yds to the NMex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
26.0%
Tyler Vander Waal run for no gain to the Wyom 44 Tyler Vander Waal fumbled, forced by Rhashaun Epting, recovered by Wyom Tyler Vander WaalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · 2 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
WYODrive 14PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q3 13:39
4TH & 12
OWN 16
+39
27.1%
Ryan Galovich punt for 68 yds , Marcus Hayes returns for 39 yds to the Wyom 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0028% → 25%
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
27.5%
Coltin Gerhart run for 8 yds to the Wyom 38 Coltin Gerhart fumbled, forced by Ravontae Holt, recovered by NMex Marcus WilliamsSimilar
Q3 12:09
3RD & 4
OPP 39
-7
27.2%
Coltin Gerhart sacked by Kevin Prosser for a loss of 7 yards to the Wyom 46 Coltin Gerhart fumbled, recovered by NMex Coltin Gerhart , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 12:09
4TH & 11
OPP 46
0
24.7%
Tyson Dyer punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Austin Conway at the Wyom 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 16FG11 plays · 70 yds · 4:5876% → 86%
Q3 9:58
3RD & 6
OPP 14
-6
22.3%
Tyler Vander Waal sacked by Nahje Flowers and Jordan Flack for a loss of 6 yards to the NMex 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17PUNT6 plays · -10 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q3 5:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
15.3%
Coltin Gerhart pass incomplete to Delane Hart-Johnson, broken up by Tyler HallSimilar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
-6
14.9%
Coltin Gerhart sacked by Logan Wilson for a loss of 6 yards to the NMex 15Similar
Q3 5:00
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
14.9%
Tyson Dyer punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Austin Conway at the Wyom 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 18PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q3 1:40
4TH & 5
OWN 6
0
12.9%
Tyson Dyer punt for 40 yds , Austin Conway returns for no gain to the NMex 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 20TD8 plays · 46 yds · 2:5990% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.6%
Coltin Gerhart pass incomplete to Anselem Umeh, broken up by Marcus EppsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 22TD4 plays · 65 yds · 2:0698% → 100%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
1.7%
Tyler Vander Waal sacked by Dylan Horton for a loss of 5 yards to the NMex 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 23INT6 plays · 20 yds · 0:000% → 0%
WYODrive 24FUMBLE3 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
0.2%
Tyler Vander Waal run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 17 Tyler Vander Waal fumbled, recovered by NMex Everett PowellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
WYODrive 26PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:19
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
0.2%
Xazavian Valladay run for 2 yds to the Wyom 21 Xazavian Valladay fumbled, forced by DaQuan Baker, recovered by Wyom Zach WallaceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 27DOWNS5 plays · 5 yds · 0:470% → 0%
WYODrive 28END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:51
Nico Evans run for 30 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)
-8.4
FG · Q3 5:00
Cooper Rothe 37 yd FG GOOD
-8.1
TD · Q4 12:32
Austin Conway run for 11 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)
-6.2