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USU

Utah State 24 at Boise State 33

BOIS
2018 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2018 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:37 · Quinn Skillin punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 171Home team on offense+22.3Pregame prior+0.7Garbage-time factor+13.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.9Score differential+2.7Blowout margin−1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:35: Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — BOIS win probability +5.0 pts (now 62%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:09: Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — BOIS win probability +6.0 pts (now 70%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:34: Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 12 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +8.0 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 7:23: Brett Rypien pass complete to Garrett Collingham for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — BOIS win probability +11.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:12: Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 83 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +23.9 pts (now 29%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 8 of 11USU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 9:20BOIS 4th & 6 at BOIS 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:07USU 4th & 5 at USU 49, up 7
    Close callPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:43BOIS 4th & 5 at BOIS 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:36USU 4th & 11 at USU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:45BOIS 4th & 4 at USU 6, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.0%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    56.7%−2.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:25USU 4th & 1 at USU 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    39.2%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:09BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:38USU 4th & 9 at midfield, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:27BOIS 4th & 2 at USU 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−0.5
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    57.5%−5.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:06BOIS 4th & 1 at USU 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    62.3%−2.5
    64% to make
    Punt
    55.7%−9.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:50USU 4th & 2 at USU 34, down 3
    Close callPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:09BOIS 4th & 5 at USU 10, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    56.2%−9.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:23USU 4th & 15 at BOIS 33, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−2.4
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.2%
    49% to make
    Punt
    27.6%−1.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:18BOIS 4th & 1 at BOIS 42, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsPunted · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%−3.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:53USU 4th & 6 at BOIS 28, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    21.0%−10.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:55BOIS 4th & 1 at USU 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.0%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    65.9%−7.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    47.8%−25.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:35USU 4th & 16 at USU 31, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−2.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:37BOIS 4th & 8 at USU 43, up 9
    Close callPunted · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    90.3%−0.6
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%−0.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:50USU 4th & 1 at USU 24, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.6%−0.6
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:04BOIS 4th & 1 at USU 1, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    86.1%−12.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    56.2%−42.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 4USU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:14USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:35BOIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:09BOIS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:34USU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:23BOIS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    90.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:12USU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.9%−1.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:04BOIS Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3640% → 42%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
59.9%
Jordan Love pass complete to Aaren Vaughns for 6 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
59.9%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jalen Greene for 5 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
59.8%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Dax RaymondSimilar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+37
59.9%
Jordan Love pass complete to Aaren Vaughns for 37 yds to the BoiSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
59.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jalen Greene for 6 yds to the BoiSt 21Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+5
59.6%
Darwin Thompson run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
59.6%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 4 yds to the BoiSt 12Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+3
59.5%
Darwin Thompson run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 9Similar
Q1 11:14
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+9
58.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jalen Greene for 9 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:5059% → 58%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
58.5%
Mattison, Alexander rush for 4 yards to the BOISEST23, PENALTY BOISEST holding 9 yards to the BOISEST10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 19
OWN 10
0
58.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to John BatesSimilar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 19
OWN 10
+11
58.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 11 yds to the BoiSt 21Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+2
57.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 2 yds to the BoiSt 23Similar
Q1 9:20
4TH & 6
OWN 23
+42
57.5%
Quinn Skillin punt for 42 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:0343% → 43%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
57.5%
Darwin Thompson run for 10 yds to the UthSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
56.9%
Jordan Love run for no gain to the UthSt 44Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
56.8%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jalen GreeneSimilar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+5
57.0%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 5 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
Q1 8:07
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
56.9%
Zach Lee punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Avery Williams at the BoiSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1757% → 56%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-8
57.2%
Brett Rypien sacked by Caden Andersen for a loss of 8 yards to the BoiSt 4Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 18
OWN 4
+13
56.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 13 yds to the BoiSt 17Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 5
OWN 17
0
56.6%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to CT ThomasSimilar
Q1 6:43
4TH & 5
OWN 17
0
56.1%
Quinn Skillin punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 5INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:4844% → 45%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
56.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jalen Greene for 6 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+4
55.5%
Gerold Bright run for 4 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
55.4%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Ron'quavion TarverSimilar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+9
55.4%
Jordan Love pass intercepted Kekaula Kaniho return for 9 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6TD
7 plays · 39 yds · 3:0157% → 62%
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
57.3%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to A.J. RichardsonSimilar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
57.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 4 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+10
57.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Akilian Butler for 10 yds to the UthSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
57.5%
Andrew Van Buren run for 3 yds to the UthSt 22Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+5
57.3%
Alexander Mattison run for 5 yds to the UthSt 17Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+15
56.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 15 yds to the UthSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
61.5%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:5441% → 40%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
59.1%
Bright, Gerold rush for loss of 8 yards to the UTAHST17, PENALTY UTAHST holding 10 yards to the UTAHST15, NO PLAY, PENALTY BOISEST personal foul (Maeva, Tyson) 15 yards to the UTAHST30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UTAHST.Similar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
58.9%
Gerold Bright run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 29Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 11
OWN 29
0
59.0%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Ron'quavion TarverSimilar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 11
OWN 29
0
59.5%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jalen GreeneSimilar
Q1 1:36
4TH & 11
OWN 29
0
60.0%
Taylor Hintze punt for 47 yds , Avery Williams returns for no gain to the BoiSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8FG
6 plays · 70 yds · 1:4560% → 61%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+51
59.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 51 yds to the UthSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
61.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 13 yds to the UthSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
61.8%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to A.J. RichardsonSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+6
61.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 6 yds to the UthSt 6Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 4
OPP 6
0
61.3%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Alexander MattisonSimilar
Q2 14:45
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+23
61.3%
Haden Hoggarth 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1539% → 38%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
61.2%
Darwin Thompson run for 3 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
61.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to DJ Nelson for 6 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
60.8%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Savon ScarverSimilar
Q2 13:25
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
61.7%
Dax Raymond run for no gain to the UthSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10TD
10 plays · 34 yds · 3:1163% → 70%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
63.0%
Alexander Mattison run for 5 yds to the UthSt 29 BOISE ST Penalty, Personal Foul (John Molchon) to the UthSt 44Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 20
OPP 44
+8
61.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 8 yds to the UthSt 36Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 12
OPP 36
+17
61.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 17 yds to the UthSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-14
63.4%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd to the UthSt 18 BOISE ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Garrett Larson) to the UthSt 33Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 24
OPP 33
+30
62.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to John Bates for 30 yds to the UthSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
63.4%
Alexander Mattison run for no gain to the UthSt 3Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
63.6%
UTAH ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (2 Yards) to the UthSt 1Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:2631% → 41%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
69.0%
Darwin Thompson run for 4 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
68.9%
Darwin Thompson run for 3 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
69.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jalen Greene for 7 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
68.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Aaren Vaughns for 18 yds to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
68.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 7 yds to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+17
67.9%
Darwin Thompson run for 17 yds to the BoiSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
67.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Aaren Vaughns for 7 yds to the BoiSt 12Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 3
OPP 12
0
67.5%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Darwin ThompsonSimilar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+12
59.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 12 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:1162% → 61%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
62.4%
Alexander Mattison run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+5
62.7%
UTAH ST Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the BoiSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
63.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Akilian Butler for 5 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
-5
64.2%
Brett Rypien sacked by David Woodward for a loss of 5 yards to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
61.9%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Akilian Butler BOISE ST Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 5:09
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+22
61.1%
Quinn Skillin punt for 51 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 22 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:2238% → 37%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
61.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jalen Greene for 3 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+11
60.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 11 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
59.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 9
50
0
59.8%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jordan NathanSimilar
Q2 3:47
3RD & 9
50
0
61.1%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Deven ThompkinsSimilar
Q2 3:38
4TH & 9
50
0
62.7%
Zach Lee punt for 27 yds, downed at the BoiSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14MISSED FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 3:0363% → 64%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
62.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 5 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 5
OWN 28
-10
62.8%
Mattison, Alexander rush for 10 yards to the BOISEST38, PENALTY BOISEST holding (Cleveland, Ezra) 10 yards to the BOISEST18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 15
OWN 18
0
62.0%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Akilian ButlerSimilar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 15
OWN 18
+34
60.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 34 yds to the UthSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
65.2%
Brett Rypien sacked by Tipa Galeai for a loss of 4 yards to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 14
OWN 48
+13
63.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 13 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+2
64.9%
Brett Rypien run for 2 yds to the UthSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
65.5%
Alexander Mattison run for 13 yds to the UthSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
66.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to John Bates for 5 yds to the UthSt 19Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+3
66.4%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the UthSt 16Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 2
OPP 16
0
65.6%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean ModsterSimilar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+33
64.3%
Haden Hoggarth 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
62.2%
Gerold Bright run for 1 yd to the UthSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16DOWNS
10 plays · 49 yds · 4:3464% → 66%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
64.2%
Alexander Mattison run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+21
64.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 21 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
66.4%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+6
66.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 6 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+12
66.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 12 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
67.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alexander Mattison for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 37Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+4
66.6%
Andrew Van Buren run for 4 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+7
66.8%
Brett Rypien run for 7 yds to the UthSt 26Similar
Q3 10:06
4TH & 1
OPP 26
0
65.6%
Alexander Mattison run for no gain to the UthSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0537% → 36%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
62.9%
Jordan Love pass complete to Dax Raymond for 7 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+2
61.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Aaren Vaughns for 2 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 1
OWN 35
-1
61.7%
Darwin Thompson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 34Similar
Q3 8:50
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
64.1%
Taylor Hintze punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BoiSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18FG
5 plays · 49 yds · 1:3667% → 72%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+44
67.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 44 yds to the UthSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
69.3%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to CT ThomasSimilar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+5
69.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 5 yds to the UthSt 10Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
68.1%
Rypien, Brett pass complete to Modster, Sean for 7 yards to the UTAHST3, PENALTY BOISEST illegal touching (Modster, Sean) 0 yards to the UTAHST10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:09
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+27
72.1%
Haden Hoggarth 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 19MISSED FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 3:4231% → 29%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
68.9%
BOISE ST Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the UthSt 26Similar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 5
OWN 26
0
67.6%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Gerold BrightSimilar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+4
68.1%
Gerold Bright run for 4 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+24
68.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Aaren Vaughns for 24 yds to the BoiSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
65.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 5 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+13
64.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Aaren Vaughns for 13 yds to the BoiSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
63.2%
Gerold Bright run for no gain to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+2
63.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 2 yds to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 8
OPP 26
-7
65.6%
Jordan Love sacked by Sam Whitney for a loss of 7 yards to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q3 3:23
4TH & 15
OPP 33
+50
71.0%
Dominik Eberle 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5275% → 76%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
75.2%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+7
75.2%
Alexander Mattison run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 1
OWN 42
0
77.8%
Alexander Mattison run for no gain to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q3 1:18
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
75.8%
Quinn Skillin punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 21FG
7 plays · 58 yds · 1:1331% → 38%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
69.3%
Darwin Thompson run for 5 yds to the UthSt 19Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+7
69.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jalen Greene for 7 yds to the UthSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+42
68.9%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 42 yds to the BoiSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
62.3%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jalen GreeneSimilar
Q3 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
62.6%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Taylor ComptonSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+4
65.1%
Darwin Thompson run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+45
61.9%
Dominik Eberle 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 7:2265% → 88%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
64.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 11 yds to the BoiSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
70.3%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+3
71.5%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q4 13:05
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+5
70.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 5 yds to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
72.8%
Rypien, Brett pass incomplete to Modster, Sean, PENALTY UTAHST roughing passer (Galeai, Tipa) 15 yards to the UTAHST38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOISEST. (Tipa Galeai ejected for targeting). Similar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
73.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 11 yds to the UthSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
74.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 7 yds to the UthSt 20Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+5
74.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 5 yds to the UthSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
75.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 5 yds to the UthSt 10Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+2
75.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the UthSt 8Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+2
74.2%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the UthSt 6Similar
Q4 8:55
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+2
72.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the UthSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
76.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the UthSt 1Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
76.8%
Alexander Mattison run for no gain to the UthSt 1Similar
Q4 7:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Garrett Collingham for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · -6 yds · 0:4812% → 7%
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
87.9%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (Sean Taylor) to the UthSt 32Similar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 15
OWN 32
-5
89.4%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (Dax Raymond) to the UthSt 27Similar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 20
OWN 27
0
89.5%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jalen GreeneSimilar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 20
OWN 27
+4
92.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jalen Greene for 4 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 16
OWN 31
0
93.1%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jalen GreeneSimilar
Q4 6:35
4TH & 16
OWN 31
0
93.2%
Zach Lee punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UthSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:5393% → 92%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
92.9%
Alexander Mattison run for no gain to the UthSt 45Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
93.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 2 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
93.0%
Brett Rypien run for no gain to the UthSt 43Similar
Q4 4:37
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
92.4%
Quinn Skillin punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 25TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 1:225% → 29%
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
94.6%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jalen GreeneSimilar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
94.6%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Darwin ThompsonSimilar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+9
94.9%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 9 yds to the UthSt 24Similar
Q4 3:50
4TH & 1
OWN 24
+8
94.8%
Darwin Thompson run for 8 yds to the UthSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-15
94.2%
Love, Jordan pass complete to Tarver, Ron'quavion for 37 yards to the BOISEST31, PENALTY UTAHST pass interference (Tarver, Ron'quavion) 15 yards to the UTAHST17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 25
OWN 17
0
95.0%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Darwin Thompson UTAH ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Sean Taylor) declinedSimilar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 25
OWN 17
+83
71.0%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 83 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 26TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5178% → 97%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
78.0%
Alexander Mattison run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+59
82.2%
Alexander Mattison run for 59 yds to the UthSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
87.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the UthSt 7Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
91.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the UthSt 4Similar
Q4 0:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
94.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the UthSt 1Similar
Q4 0:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.3%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:12
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 83 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)
-23.9
TD · Q4 7:23
Brett Rypien pass complete to Garrett Collingham for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+11.3
TD · Q2 7:34
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 12 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)
-8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com