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CSU

Colorado State 19 at Air Force 27

AF
2018 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2018 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:41 · Ryan Stonehouse punt for 37 yds, downed at the AFA 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 31Pregame prior+29.9Home team on offense+1.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:34: Donald Hammond III pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 16 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +3.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:26: Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 58 yds for a TD (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +9.5 pts (now 24%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
  3. FG · Q4 13:49: Jake Koehnke 39 yd FG GOOD — AF win probability +7.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:53: K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 31 yds for a TD (Wyatt Bryan PAT BLOCKED) — CSU win probability +20.1 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 3:35: Kadin Remsberg run for 4 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK) COLORADO ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined — AF win probability +19.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 6CSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 15:00CSU 4th & 11 at AF 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    16.6%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:42AF 4th & 1 at AF 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    82.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:41CSU 4th & 6 at AF 47, down 7
    Close callPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:46AF 4th & 10 at AF 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00CSU 4th & 17 at CSU 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−0.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:53AF 4th & 4 at AF 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:00CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:09AF 4th & 3 at CSU 12, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.9%−0.4
    86% to make
    Punt
    78.7%−4.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00AF 4th & 1 at CSU 1, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    77.9%−2.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    73.6%−6.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:49AF 4th & 8 at CSU 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%−1.4
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    65.9%−10.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 5:48AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:34AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:07CSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    18.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:26CSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:53CSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    35.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.6%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:35AF Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
84.4%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for no gain to the ColSt 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
84.4%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Preston Williams, broken up by Lakota WillsSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+21
84.4%
Collin Hill pass complete to Warren Jackson for 21 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
84.4%
MATTHEWS, I. rush for 7 yards to the 50 yardline (MEEKS, Demonte), PENALTY CSU illegal formation 5 yards to the CSU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+18
84.4%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 18 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
84.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the AFA 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 43
-2
84.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 45
0
84.4%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OPP 45
0
84.4%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 5:5484% → 84%
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-7
83.5%
Kadin Remsberg run for a loss of 7 yards to the AFA 13Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 17
OWN 13
+12
83.5%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Andrew Smith for 12 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+12
83.4%
Kadin Remsberg run for 12 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
83.6%
Cole Fagan run for 3 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+2
83.6%
Donald Hammond III run for 2 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+4
83.5%
Kadin Remsberg run for 4 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q1 11:42
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+8
83.5%
Cole Fagan run for 8 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
83.7%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Taven Birdow for 9 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+12
83.7%
Taven Birdow run for 12 yds to the ColSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
83.8%
Donald Hammond III pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+14
83.8%
Kadin Remsberg run for 14 yds to the ColSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
83.8%
Cole Fagan run for 8 yds to the ColSt 3Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+3
84.2%
Cole Fagan run for 3 yds for a TD COLORADO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (2 Yards) to the ColSt 1 (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
83.5%
Adam Prentice run for 8 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+1
83.2%
Adam Prentice run for 1 yd to the ColSt 38Similar
Q1 5:41
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+11
83.2%
Izzy Matthews run for 11 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
83.1%
Collin Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
83.2%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q1 5:41
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+1
83.1%
Collin Hill run for 1 yd to the AFA 47Similar
Q1 5:41
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
83.5%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 37 yds, downed at the AFA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
83.4%
Cole Fagan run for 5 yds to the AFA 15Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 5
OWN 15
-5
83.4%
Kadin Remsberg run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 10Similar
Q1 2:46
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
83.1%
Donald Hammond III pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:46
4TH & 10
OWN 10
0
82.8%
Jake Koehnke punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Anthony Hawkins at the ColSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:2118% → 17%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
82.1%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 44Similar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+1
82.7%
Marcus McElroy run for 1 yd to the ColSt 45Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 14
OWN 45
+2
82.8%
Collin Hill run for 2 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q1 1:21
3RD & 12
OWN 47
-5
82.9%
Collin Hill sacked by Nakoa Pauole and Demonte Meeks for a loss of 5 yards to the ColSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 42
0
83.2%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Andrew Smith at the AFA 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
82.9%
Cole Fagan run for 3 yds to the AFA 10Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+4
82.9%
Kadin Remsberg run for 4 yds to the AFA 14Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 3
OWN 14
0
82.6%
TEAM run for no gain to the AFA 13 TEAM fumbled, recovered by AFA Cole FaganSimilar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 4
OWN 13
0
82.2%
Jake Koehnke punt for 56 yds, downed at the ColSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
82.3%
Collin Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
82.5%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
82.6%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Preston Williams, broken up by Zane LewisSimilar
Q2 13:00
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
83.0%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Andrew Smith at the AFA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8TD
4 plays · 74 yds · 1:3583% → 88%
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+56
82.8%
Cole Fagan run for 56 yds to the ColSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
83.7%
Donald Hammond III run for 1 yd to the ColSt 17Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+1
83.7%
Taven Birdow run for 1 yd to the ColSt 16Similar
Q2 10:34
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+16
87.7%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 16 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9TD
12 plays · 92 yds · 3:2114% → 18%
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
86.5%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds to the ColSt 12Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+9
86.3%
Collin Hill pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 9 yds to the ColSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
86.2%
Collin Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+12
86.3%
Izzy Matthews run for 12 yds to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
86.0%
Collin Hill sacked by Micah Capra for a loss of 5 yards to the ColSt 28Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 15
OWN 28
0
86.3%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Olabisi Johnson, broken up by Jordan JacksonSimilar
Q2 10:28
3RD & 15
OWN 28
+34
86.5%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 34 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
85.1%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
85.1%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+34
82.2%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 34 yds for a TD (Wyatt Bryan PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10FG
13 plays · 63 yds · 5:5883% → 86%
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
82.8%
Cole Fagan run for 7 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
83.3%
Cole Fagan run for 6 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
83.6%
Joseph Saucier run for 7 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+9
83.9%
Cole Fagan run for 9 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
84.2%
Taven Birdow run for 4 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+10
84.1%
Joseph Saucier run for 10 yds to the ColSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
84.2%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Cole Fagan for 9 yds to the ColSt 23Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+4
84.2%
Cole Fagan run for 4 yds to the ColSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
84.2%
Cole Fagan run for 4 yds to the ColSt 15Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+3
84.2%
Cole Fagan run for 3 yds to the ColSt 12Similar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 3
OPP 12
0
83.8%
Christian Mallard run for no gain to the ColSt 12Similar
Q2 1:09
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+29
86.0%
Jake Koehnke 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 0:4315% → 24%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.4%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 2 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
85.3%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
86.0%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 10 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
84.9%
HILL, C. rush for 18 yards to the AF45 (WILLS, Lakota), PENALTY CSU holding (MATTHEWS, I.) 10 yards to the CSU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+15
85.5%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 15 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+58
76.1%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 58 yds for a TD (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12MISSED FG
8 plays · 38 yds · 0:2678% → 80%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+33
78.2%
Joseph Saucier run for 33 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
80.3%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Marcus BennettSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
80.1%
Kadin Remsberg run for 5 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+54
79.5%
Jake Koehnke 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13DOWNS
14 plays · 74 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
77.6%
Cole Fagan run for 8 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
78.6%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Marcus BennettSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+9
77.7%
Cole Fagan run for 9 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
78.9%
Cole Fagan run for 3 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-2
79.2%
Kadin Remsberg run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 43Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
79.6%
Cole Fagan run for 7 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+14
80.1%
Cole Fagan run for 14 yds to the ColSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
80.1%
Taven Birdow run for 5 yds to the ColSt 16Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+6
80.1%
Taven Birdow run for 6 yds to the ColSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
80.1%
Taven Birdow run for 6 yds to the ColSt 4Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
80.1%
Taven Birdow run for 1 yd to the ColSt 3Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
79.3%
Kadin Remsberg run for 2 yds to the ColSt 1Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
78.2%
Donald Hammond III run for no gain to the ColSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14INT
6 plays · 84 yds · 0:0023% → 28%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
77.3%
Collin Hill run for 1 yd to the ColSt 2Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+47
77.6%
Collin Hill pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 47 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+22
73.8%
Collin Hill pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 22 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
72.2%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 14 yds to the AFA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
72.2%
Izzy Matthews run for no gain to the AFA 15Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
72.2%
Collin Hill pass intercepted Jeremy Fejedelem return for no gain to the AFA 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15FG
18 plays · 76 yds · 6:5177% → 87%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
77.0%
Cole Fagan run for 4 yds to the AFA 6Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 6
OWN 6
0
76.8%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Andrew SmithSimilar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 6
OWN 6
+10
75.7%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 10 yds to the AFA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
77.3%
Cole Fagan run for 8 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+7
77.9%
Cole Fagan run for 7 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
77.7%
Cole Fagan run for 10 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
79.1%
Kadin Remsberg run for 2 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+7
79.0%
Donald Hammond III run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 1
50
+3
79.2%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
79.9%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 8 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 2
OPP 39
0
80.0%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Cole Fagan, broken up by Tre ThomasSimilar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+3
79.5%
Cole Fagan run for 3 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
80.0%
Cole Fagan run for 7 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+5
80.5%
Cole Fagan run for 5 yds to the ColSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
80.5%
Cole Fagan run for 2 yds to the ColSt 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
80.5%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Andrew SmithSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 22
0
79.2%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Marcus BennettSimilar
Q4 13:49
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+39
86.8%
Jake Koehnke 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:5616% → 38%
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
83.7%
Marcus McElroy run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
83.0%
Marcus McElroy run for 5 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q4 13:49
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
82.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
83.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Trey McBride for 5 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+13
81.4%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 13 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
80.5%
K.J. Carta-Samuels run for 9 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+15
80.1%
Marcus McElroy run for no gain to the AFA 38 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, personal foul (Micah Capra) to the AFA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-8
78.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels sacked by Demonte Meeks for a loss of 8 yards to the AFA 31Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 18
OPP 31
+31
62.5%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 31 yds for a TD (Wyatt Bryan PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 6:1870% → 95%
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
69.8%
Kadin Remsberg run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
69.5%
Cole Fagan run for 3 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+28
68.8%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Andrew Smith for 13 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, personal foul (Emmanuel Jones) to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
74.2%
Cole Fagan run for 5 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+16
74.3%
Cole Fagan run for 16 yds to the ColSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
75.8%
Taven Birdow run for 6 yds to the ColSt 16Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 4
OPP 16
0
75.8%
Taven Birdow run for no gain to the ColSt 16Similar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+4
74.1%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Kadin Remsberg for 4 yds to the ColSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
75.8%
Cole Fagan run for 5 yds to the ColSt 7Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+3
75.8%
Cole Fagan run for 3 yds to the ColSt 4Similar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
95.3%
Kadin Remsberg run for 4 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK) COLORADO ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18INT
8 plays · 53 yds · 0:009% → 13%
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
91.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 10 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
90.3%
Izzy Matthews run for 13 yds to the ColSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
89.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
89.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+11
90.2%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Cameron Butler for 11 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+19
88.2%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 19 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
86.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass intercepted Kyle Floyd return for no gain to the AFA 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19END OF GAME
7 plays · 33 yds · 0:4096% → 97%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+10
96.2%
Cole Fagan run for 10 yds to the AFA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
96.2%
Cole Fagan run for 6 yds to the AFA 19Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+6
96.8%
Cole Fagan run for 6 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
96.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 23Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+15
96.8%
COLORADO ST Penalty, player disqualification (Tre Thomas) to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
97.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:53
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 31 yds for a TD (Wyatt Bryan PAT BLOCKED)
-20.1
TD · Q4 3:35
Kadin Remsberg run for 4 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK) COLORADO ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined
+19.5
TD · Q2 0:26
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 58 yds for a TD (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
-9.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com