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NEV

Nevada 21 at San José State 12

SJSU
2018 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2018 · CEFCU Stadium
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Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+19SJSU 43.8%Michael Carrillo pass complete toDeJon Packer for 22 yds for a TD(Two-Point Conversion failed )AWAY 14 - HOME 12 · Q3 3:24
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:24 · Michael Carrillo pass complete to DeJon Packer for 22 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 112Pregame prior−11.5Home team on offense+1.8Score differential−1.6Garbage-time factor−1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. SACK · Q2 10:28: Michael Carrillo sacked by Lucas Weber for a loss of 10 yards to the SJSt 26 — SJSU win probability +8.2 pts (now 35%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:48: Ty Gangi run for 2 yds for a TD (Spencer Pettit KICK) — NEV win probability +6.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:21: Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 9 yds for a TD (Spencer Pettit KICK) — NEV win probability +8.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:24: Michael Carrillo pass complete to DeJon Packer for 22 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — SJSU win probability +19.0 pts (now 44%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:38: Toa Taua run for 9 yds for a TD (Spencer Pettit KICK) — NEV win probability +13.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8NEV made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00SJSU 4th & 5 at SJSU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:56NEV 4th & 11 at SJSU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    78.0%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:56SJSU 4th & 16 at NEV 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    21.3%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00NEV 4th & 1 at SJSU 27, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    70.5%−1.0
    62% to make
    Punt
    68.0%−3.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:28SJSU 4th & 8 at SJSU 38, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:06NEV 4th & 3 at SJSU 29, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    63.1%−1.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    58.6%−5.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:47NEV 4th & 2 at SJSU 2, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    69.4%−1.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    63.5%−7.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:21SJSU 4th & 15 at SJSU 20, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−1.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:40NEV 4th & 1 at midfield, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    78.1%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:20SJSU 4th & 7 at NEV 46, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    20.9%−1.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:30NEV 4th & 4 at NEV 12, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%−0.5
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:24NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 33, up 2
    Close callPunted · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.1%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:40SJSU 4th & 6 at SJSU 37, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:32SJSU 4th & 1 at NEV 48, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.7%−3.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:44NEV 4th & 7 at SJSU 48, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:28SJSU 4th & 10 at SJSU 49, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:42NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 47, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2NEV made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 0:52SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    29.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:48NEV Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:21NEV Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:24SJSU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    38.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    38.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:38NEV Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
18.0%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 17Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+5
18.0%
Tyler Nevens run for 5 yds to the SJSt 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
18.0%
Michael Carrillo pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+5
18.0%
Tyler Nevens run for 5 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
18.0%
Bryce Crawford punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2MISSED FG
9 plays · 56 yds · 4:4781% → 79%
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
18.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 10 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
18.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 2 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+32
18.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Daiyan Henley for 32 yds to the SJSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
18.5%
Kelton Moore run for 3 yds to the SJSt 20Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+10
18.5%
McLane Mannix run for 10 yds to the SJSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
18.5%
Ty Gangi sacked by Jamal Scott for a loss of 5 yards to the SJSt 15Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+4
18.6%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the SJSt 11Similar
Q1 13:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
18.6%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the SJSt 11Similar
Q1 8:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
20.9%
Ramiz Ahmed 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3PUNT
13 plays · 41 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
21.1%
Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd to the SJSt 21Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+11
21.0%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Tre Walker for 11 yds to the SJSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
21.1%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Thai Cottrell for 3 yds to the SJSt 35Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+1
21.1%
Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd to the SJSt 39 Tyler Nevens fumbled, forced by Chris Green, recovered by SJSt Thai CottrellSimilar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+6
21.2%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to DeJon Packer for 6 yds to the SJSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
21.4%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Austin Liles for 10 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
21.6%
Malike Roberson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+4
21.6%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Josh Oliver for 4 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+5
21.5%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to DeJon Packer for 5 yds to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
21.7%
Michael Carrillo sacked by Lucas Weber for a loss of 10 yards to the Nevad 43 SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, intentional grounding (Michael Carrillo) to the Nevad 43Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 20
OPP 43
0
21.3%
Michael Carrillo pass incomplete to Josh OliverSimilar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 20
OPP 43
+4
21.1%
Malike Roberson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q1 8:56
4TH & 16
OPP 39
0
20.9%
Brian Papazian punt for 38 yds, downed at the Nevad 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4INT
6 plays · 30 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
24.2%
TAUA, Toa rush for 6 yards to the NEVADA7 (HALL, Cade), PENALTY NEVADA holding 0 yards to the NEVADA1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
24.2%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the Nevad 5Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+25
24.3%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 25 yds to the Nevad 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
24.0%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 1 yd to the Nevad 31Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
24.0%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+27
24.4%
Ty Gangi pass intercepted Ethan Aguayo return for 27 yds to the Nevad 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 0:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
30.2%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Josh Oliver for 1 yd for a TD (Bryce Crawford PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6FUMBLE
13 plays · 39 yds · 0:5272% → 73%
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
28.3%
Toa Taua run for 8 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
27.4%
Toa Taua run for 7 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
28.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Kaleb FossumSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
28.5%
Toa Taua run for 6 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+8
28.0%
Toa Taua run for 8 yds to the SJSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
27.6%
Kelton Moore run for 6 yds to the SJSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+4
27.5%
Kelton Moore run for 4 yds to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
27.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 8 yds to the SJSt 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 28
0
27.0%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the SJSt 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+1
27.6%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the SJSt 27Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+2
28.1%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the SJSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-11
27.0%
Ty Gangi run for a loss of 11 yards to the SJSt 36 Ty Gangi fumbled, recovered by SJSt Christian JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
35.2%
Michael Carrillo sacked by Lucas Weber for a loss of 10 yards to the SJSt 26Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 20
OWN 26
+7
34.3%
Chance Lachapelle run for 7 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q2 10:28
3RD & 13
OWN 33
+5
33.8%
Chance Lachapelle run for 5 yds to the SJSt 38Similar
Q2 10:28
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
33.5%
Bryce Crawford punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8TD
14 plays · 85 yds · 6:3765% → 74%
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
35.2%
Toa Taua run for 11 yds to the Nevad 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
34.9%
Toa Taua run for 7 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+21
33.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 21 yds to the SJSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
33.7%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 3 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+7
33.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 7 yds to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
33.7%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the SJSt 35Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+3
32.8%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+3
33.8%
Ty Gangi run for 3 yds to the SJSt 29Similar
Q2 7:06
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+17
35.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 17 yds to the SJSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
32.4%
Kelton Moore run for 1 yd to the SJSt 11 for a 1ST down SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, personal foul (Jamal Scott) to the SJSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
32.4%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the SJSt 2Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
32.4%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the SJSt 2Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
26.0%
Ty Gangi run for 2 yds for a TD (Spencer Pettit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 9INT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0631% → 30%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.0%
Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the SJSt 25Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
31.2%
Michael Carrillo pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
30.2%
Michael Carrillo pass intercepted Dameon Baber return for no gain to the SJSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10DOWNS
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:3973% → 71%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
26.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Daiyan Henley for 1 yd to the SJSt 38Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+36
27.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 36 yds to the SJSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
26.4%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the SJSt 2Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
26.6%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
27.6%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane Mannix, broken up by John ToussaintSimilar
Q2 0:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-4
29.3%
Ty Gangi run for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-1
32.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3969% → 81%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.7%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
30.8%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+57
31.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 57 yds to the SJSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
27.4%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the SJSt 13Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+4
27.4%
Kelton Moore run for 4 yds to the SJSt 9Similar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+9
18.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 9 yds for a TD (Spencer Pettit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
21.2%
Tyler Nevens run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 24Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-10
21.1%
Tre Hartley run for a loss of 10 yards to the SJSt 14Similar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+6
20.2%
Chance Lachapelle run for 6 yds to the SJSt 20 SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, illegal shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 12:21
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
19.8%
Bryce Crawford punt for 39 yds, fair catch by McLane Mannix at the Nevad 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
19.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 2 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+2
19.1%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
19.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q3 10:40
4TH & 6
OWN 45
+5
20.4%
CONAWAY, Q. punt 41 yards to the SJSU14, out-of-bounds, PENALTY SJSU roughing the kicker (MANIGO, Brendan) 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:40
4TH & 1
50
-1
20.1%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0025% → 22%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
24.5%
Chance Lachapelle pass complete to DeJon Packer for 2 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+3
24.7%
DeJon Packer run for 3 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 5
OPP 44
-2
24.3%
Chance Lachapelle run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 46Similar
Q3 9:20
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
21.6%
Brian Papazian punt for 40 yds, fair catch by McLane Mannix at the Nevad 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
20.8%
Kelton Moore run for 6 yds to the Nevad 12Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 4
OWN 12
0
20.7%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Romeo Doubs, broken up by John ToussaintSimilar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 4
OWN 12
0
21.5%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Kaleb FossumSimilar
Q3 7:30
4TH & 4
OWN 12
+31
22.2%
Quinton Conaway punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Thai Cottrell at the SJSU 47 NEVADA Penalty, Defensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Nevad 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17TD
7 plays · 43 yds · 3:1725% → 44%
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
24.9%
Michael Carrillo pass incomplete to Josh OliverSimilar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
24.5%
Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the Nevad 43Similar
Q3 6:41
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+10
23.6%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Thai Cottrell for 10 yds to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
26.2%
DeJon Packer run for 7 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+2
26.2%
DeJon Packer run for 2 yds to the Nevad 24Similar
Q3 6:41
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+2
24.8%
DeJon Packer run for 2 yds to the Nevad 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
43.8%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to DeJon Packer for 22 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Kaleb FossumSimilar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
34.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 8 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q3 3:24
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
33.5%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Jaxson KincaideSimilar
Q3 3:24
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
35.3%
Quinton Conaway punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Thai Cottrell at the SJSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0038% → 36%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
38.2%
Tyler Nevens run for 4 yds to the SJSt 37Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 6
OWN 37
0
40.8%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Tyler Nevens for no gain to the SJSt 37Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
37.7%
Michael Carrillo pass incomplete to Tre HartleySimilar
Q3 2:40
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
36.2%
Bryce Crawford punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 3:2666% → 84%
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+30
34.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 30 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
31.0%
Toa Taua run for 12 yds to the SJSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+19
30.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 19 yds to the SJSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
29.1%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the SJSt 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+11
29.1%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 11 yds to the SJSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
29.1%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the SJSt 9Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
15.9%
Toa Taua run for 9 yds for a TD (Spencer Pettit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 28 yds · 0:0019% → 20%
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+20
19.2%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Josh Oliver for 20 yds to the SJSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
20.8%
Michael Carrillo run for 2 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
21.1%
Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the SJSt 45Similar
Q4 12:32
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+7
19.6%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Malike Roberson for 7 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q4 12:32
4TH & 1
OPP 48
-1
20.4%
DeJon Packer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0086% → 84%
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
14.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+8
14.3%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Daiyan Henley for 8 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 2
OPP 43
-5
14.3%
NEVADA Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 48Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
14.3%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:44
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
15.7%
Quinton Conaway punt for 38 yds, downed at the SJSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 39 yds · 0:5515% → 14%
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+12
14.9%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Malike Roberson for 12 yds to the SJSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
15.0%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to DeJon Packer for 1 yd to the SJSt 23Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+26
14.1%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Tre Walker for 26 yds to the SJSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
16.5%
Michael Carrillo pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-5
16.0%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 44Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 15
OWN 44
0
14.7%
Michael Carrillo pass incomplete to Josh OliverSimilar
Q4 7:28
3RD & 15
OWN 44
+5
13.9%
Michael Carrillo run for 5 yds to the SJSt 49Similar
Q4 7:28
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
13.8%
Brian Papazian punt for 45 yds, downed at the Nevad 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 24PUNT
13 plays · 41 yds · 3:3989% → 95%
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+9
11.2%
Toa Taua run for 9 yds to the Nevad 15Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 1
OWN 15
+1
10.9%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
9.7%
Toa Taua run for 6 yds to the Nevad 22Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+11
8.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 11 yds to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
8.8%
Ty Gangi run for 2 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+9
7.6%
Toa Taua run for 9 yds to the Nevad 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
6.8%
Kelton Moore run for 5 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 5
OWN 49
-2
6.9%
Kelton Moore run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 47Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
4.4%
Kelton Moore run for no gain to the Nevad 47Similar
Q4 1:42
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
4.7%
Quinton Conaway punt for 47 yds, downed at the SJSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · 30 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+9
3.0%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Tre Walker for 9 yds to the SJSt 13 to Thai Cottrell for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 13Similar
Q4 0:12
2ND & 3
OWN 13
0
3.1%
Michael Carrillo pass incomplete to Thai CottrellSimilar
Q4 0:12
3RD & 3
OWN 13
+23
2.9%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Tre Walker for 23 yds to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:24
Michael Carrillo pass complete to DeJon Packer for 22 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+19
TD · Q4 12:38
Toa Taua run for 9 yds for a TD (Spencer Pettit KICK)
-13.2
TD · Q3 12:21
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 9 yds for a TD (Spencer Pettit KICK)
-8.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com