Try the model
USU

Utah State 29 at Colorado State 24

CSU
2018 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2018 · Canvas Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Ryan Stonehouse punt for 44 yds , Deven Thompkins returns for 9 yds to the UthSt 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 6Pregame prior−46.1Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:36: Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 9 yds for a TD — CSU win probability +6.5 pts (now 21%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. FG · Q3 7:28: Wyatt Bryan 22 yd FG GOOD — CSU win probability +10.2 pts (now 28%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:37: Collin Hill pass intercepted for a TD Jontrell Rocquemore return for 32 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +12.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:36: Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 17 yds for a TD UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +47.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:43: Jordan Love pass complete to Aaren Vaughns for 33 yds for a TD UTAH ST Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 8 (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — USU win probability +51.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6USU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:55USU 4th & 10 at CSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:42CSU 4th & 10 at USU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    7.8%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:00USU 4th & 2 at CSU 6, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.4%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    89.5%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:47USU 4th & 14 at USU 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%−0.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:20CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:15USU 4th & 8 at USU 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:02CSU 4th & 12 at CSU 43, down 3
    Numbers favored punt by 1.5 ptsWent for it · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.2%−1.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:48USU 4th & 11 at CSU 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:28CSU 4th & 4 at USU 4, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.0%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    14.5%−9.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:03USU 4th & 1 at CSU 9, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.7%−3.9
    89% to make
    Punt
    57.7%−14.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:00USU 4th & 9 at CSU 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−2.7
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    58.1%−16.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:00CSU 4th & 28 at CSU 49, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−3.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2USU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 11:36USU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:51CSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:37USU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:36CSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.2%−7.8
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:43USU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    83.7%−1.0
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    84.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
3.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the ColSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
3.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 8 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
3.9%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-5
3.9%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+9
3.9%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 44 yds , Deven Thompkins returns for 9 yds to the UthSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
4.4%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+16
4.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 16 yds to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
4.4%
Taylor Hintze punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 23Similar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
4.4%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
4.4%
Darwin Thompson run for no gain to the ColSt 47Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
4.4%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3MISSED FG
14 plays · 53 yds · 7:175% → 7%
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
4.7%
Collin Hill pass complete to Cameron Butler for 6 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+5
4.7%
Adam Prentice run for 5 yds to the ColSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
4.7%
Adam Prentice run for 3 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+3
4.7%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+11
4.7%
Collin Hill pass complete to Warren Jackson for 11 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
4.7%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the ColSt 46 COLORADO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-13 Yards) to the ColSt 41Similar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 20
OWN 41
+7
4.7%
Adam Prentice run for 7 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 13
OWN 48
+5
4.7%
Collin Hill pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 5 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+23
4.7%
Collin Hill pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 23 yds to the UthSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
4.7%
COLORADO ST Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 29Similar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+2
4.7%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 2 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 13
OPP 27
+3
4.7%
Adam Prentice run for 3 yds to the UthSt 24Similar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
4.7%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Izzy Matthews, broken up by DJ WilliamsSimilar
Q1 4:42
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+42
7.0%
Wyatt Bryan 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4FG
13 plays · 70 yds · 3:4293% → 92%
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
6.9%
Darwin Thompson run for 13 yds to the UthSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
6.8%
Jordan Love run for 8 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+3
6.7%
Darwin Thompson run for 3 yds to the UthSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
6.7%
Darwin Thompson run for 16 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
6.6%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+6
6.6%
Gerold Bright run for 6 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+16
6.6%
Jordan Love pass complete to Aaren Vaughns for 16 yds to the ColSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
6.5%
Gerold Bright run for 1 yd to the ColSt 13Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 9
OPP 13
0
6.5%
Gerold Bright run for no gain to the ColSt 13Similar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 9
OPP 13
-5
7.5%
UTAH ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 18Similar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 14
OPP 18
+12
7.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 12 yds to the ColSt 6Similar
Q1 1:00
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+23
7.6%
Dominik Eberle 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5INT TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 4:248% → 8%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
7.7%
Marcus McElroy run for 1 yd to the ColSt 26Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
7.7%
Collin Hill pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 15 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
8.5%
Preston Williams run for 6 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+1
8.6%
Adam Prentice run for 1 yd to the ColSt 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+5
8.5%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 5 yds to the UthSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+36
8.7%
Collin Hill pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 36 yds to the UthSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
8.9%
Marcus McElroy run for 2 yds to the UthSt 9Similar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+95
7.9%
Collin Hill pass intercepted for a TD Aaron Wade return for 95 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:387% → 12%
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
7.1%
Collin Hill pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 13 yds to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST down UTAH ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+35
7.2%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 35 yds to the UthSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+24
7.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for 24 yds to the UthSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
7.9%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q2 9:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
11.5%
Izzy Matthews run for 8 yds for a TD (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
10.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 9 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 1
OWN 32
-7
9.8%
Gerold Bright run for 3 yds to the UthSt 35 UTAH ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the UthSt 25Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+7
10.2%
Gerold Bright run for 7 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q2 9:47
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+5
9.9%
Gerold Bright run for 5 yds to the UthSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
9.8%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Aaren Vaughns, broken up by Darius CampbellSimilar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-4
10.0%
Darwin Thompson run for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 33Similar
Q2 9:47
3RD & 14
OWN 33
0
10.6%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Ron'quavion TarverSimilar
Q2 9:47
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
10.7%
Taylor Hintze punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
11.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the ColSt 44Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 9
OWN 44
-2
11.8%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 42Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+5
10.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 5 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q2 7:20
4TH & 6
OWN 47
+25
10.9%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the COLOST 23 COLORADO ST Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
11.6%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 6 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+5
11.3%
Darwin Thompson run for 5 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
11.1%
Darwin Thompson run for 4 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 6
OWN 43
-2
11.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Darwin Thompson for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 41Similar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
11.5%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Aaren VaughnsSimilar
Q2 5:15
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
12.2%
Zach Lee punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Olabisi Johnson at the ColSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10DOWNS
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:3313% → 14%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
12.9%
Marcus McElroy run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 6
OWN 0
+42
12.6%
Marcus McElroy run for 27 yds to the COLOST 44 for a 1ST down UTAH ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Adam Prentice) to the ColSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
13.1%
Collin Hill pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 11 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
14.2%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 40Similar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 15
OWN 40
-3
13.3%
Collin Hill pass complete to Izzy Matthews for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 37Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 18
OWN 37
+2
12.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 16
OWN 39
+4
12.6%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 12
OWN 43
+2
14.2%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 2 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11TD
17 plays · 90 yds · 8:5621% → 25%
Q3 10:36
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+9
20.6%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 9 yds for a TDSimilar
Q3 1:40
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
23.7%
Marcus McElroy run for 15 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
27.8%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+11
26.2%
Ryan Stonehouse pass complete to V.J. Banks for 11 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
29.1%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Barry Wesley) to the ColSt 46Similar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+15
26.1%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Preston Williams, broken up by DJ Williams for a 1ST down UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (DJ Williams) to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
29.3%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 13 yds to the UthSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
31.3%
Collin Hill pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 5 yds to the UthSt 21Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+10
31.3%
Izzy Matthews run for 10 yds to the UthSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
31.3%
Adam Prentice run for 4 yds to the UthSt 7Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 6
OPP 7
-5
31.3%
Adam Prentice run for 3 yds to the UthSt 4 COLORADO ST Penalty, illegal formation (Barry Wesley) to the UthSt 12Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+3
31.3%
Collin Hill pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 3 yds to the UthSt 9Similar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
24.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 9 yds to the ColSt 19Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+6
25.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 6 yds to the ColSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.2%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Preston Williams, broken up by DJ WilliamsSimilar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
24.9%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Olabisi JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0087% → 85%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-8
13.5%
Darwin Thompson run for a loss of 8 yards to the UthSt 44Similar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 18
OWN 44
+7
14.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Darwin Thompson for 7 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q3 14:48
3RD & 11
OPP 49
0
14.2%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Deven Thompkins, broken up by Dajon OwensSimilar
Q3 14:48
4TH & 11
OPP 49
0
15.5%
Zach Lee punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 6:2017% → 28%
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
16.5%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the ColSt 36Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+22
16.6%
Collin Hill pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 22 yds to the UthSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
18.4%
Adam Prentice run for 3 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
18.5%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Izzy MatthewsSimilar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+8
18.1%
Collin Hill pass complete to Warren Jackson for 8 yds to the UthSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
19.2%
Izzy Matthews run for 11 yds to the UthSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
19.2%
Izzy Matthews run for 7 yds to the UthSt 13Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+1
19.2%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the UthSt 12Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+6
18.2%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Warren Jackson for a 1ST down UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Aaron Wade) to the UthSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
19.2%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q3 13:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
19.2%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds to the UthSt 2Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
18.2%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 4Similar
Q3 7:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
28.4%
Wyatt Bryan 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14FG
11 plays · 61 yds · 3:2576% → 80%
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
24.1%
Gerold Bright run for 2 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+9
23.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 9 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
22.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jalen Greene for 12 yds to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
21.6%
Gerold Bright run for 9 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+9
21.3%
Gerold Bright run for 9 yds to the ColSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
20.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to DJ Nelson for 11 yds DJ Nelson fumbled, forced by Tywan Francis, recovered by UthSt DJ Nelson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
20.5%
Darwin Thompson run for 4 yds to the ColSt 14Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 6
OPP 14
-1
20.5%
Darwin Thompson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 15Similar
Q3 7:28
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+6
21.6%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 6 yds to the ColSt 9Similar
Q3 4:03
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+26
20.3%
Dominik Eberle 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15INT TD
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2623% → 11%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
23.1%
Marcus McElroy run for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 21Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+6
22.7%
Collin Hill pass complete to Cameron Butler for 6 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q3 2:37
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+32
10.7%
Collin Hill pass intercepted for a TD Jontrell Rocquemore return for 32 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 3:3676% → 85%
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
24.3%
Gerold Bright run for 20 yds to the UthSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
21.9%
Gerold Bright run for 6 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+17
21.2%
Gerold Bright run for 17 yds to the ColSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
20.2%
Darwin Thompson run for 11 yds to the ColSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
19.9%
Darwin Thompson run for 1 yd to the ColSt 20Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+4
19.9%
Darwin Thompson run for 4 yds to the ColSt 16Similar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 5
OPP 16
-4
21.2%
Aaren Vaughns run for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 20Similar
Q4 7:00
4TH & 9
OPP 20
+37
15.5%
Dominik Eberle 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 0:0022% → 20%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
22.0%
Collin Hill pass complete to Warren Jackson for 18 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
24.9%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Warren Jackson, broken up by David WoodwardSimilar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+11
23.6%
Izzy Matthews run for 11 yds to the UthSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
26.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 13 yds to the UthSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
28.8%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 4 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+1
28.8%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 1 yd to the UthSt 28Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 5
OPP 28
-15
26.6%
HILL, C. pass complete to MCBRIDE, T. for 10 yards to the USU18 (WADE, Aaron), PENALTY CSU pass interference (MCBRIDE, T.) 15 yards to the USU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 20
OPP 43
-8
22.9%
Collin Hill sacked by Tipa Galeai for a loss of 8 yards to the ColSt 49Similar
Q4 7:00
4TH & 28
OWN 49
0
20.3%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 33 yds , Deven Thompkins returns for no gain to the UthSt 20 Deven Thompkins fumbled, recovered by ColSt Josh WatsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18TD
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:4932% → 80%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
31.8%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the UthSt 17Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+17
79.6%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 17 yds for a TD UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 0:5336% → 92%
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
64.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 2 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+4
64.0%
Gerold Bright run for 4 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+28
64.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 28 yds to the COLOST 37 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
56.0%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
56.0%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 4 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q4 0:43
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+33
8.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Aaren Vaughns for 33 yds for a TD UTAH ST Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 8 (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20Uncategorized
10 plays · 75 yds · 0:4312% → 13%
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.9%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Cameron ButlerSimilar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+25
11.6%
Collin Hill run for 10 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST down UTAH ST Penalty, personal foul (Gaje Ferguson) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
50
+11
15.0%
Collin Hill pass complete to Warren Jackson for 11 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
16.2%
Collin Hill run for 9 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 1
OPP 30
-4
20.4%
Collin Hill sacked by Adewale Adeoye for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 34Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 34
-34
13.3%
HILL, C. pass complete to WILLIAMS, P. for 34 yards to the USU0, clock 00:00, PENALTY CSU illegal touching (WILLIAMS, P.) 34 yards to the USU0, TOUCHDOWN, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:43
Jordan Love pass complete to Aaren Vaughns for 33 yds for a TD UTAH ST Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 8 (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-51.3
TD · Q4 1:36
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 17 yds for a TD UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
+47.7
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-13.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com