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Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreAF score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:00 · Jake Koehnke punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Austin Conway at the Wyom 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 10:19: Donald Hammond III run for 36 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +13.6 pts (now 66%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
- FG · Q4 8:44: Jake Koehnke 21 yd FG GOOD — AF win probability +15.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:32: Tyler Vander Waal run for 5 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +22.0 pts (now 32%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
- TD · Q4 1:09: Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Austin Conway for 22 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +50.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:45: Xazavian Valladay run for 27 yds for a TD WYOMING Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declined (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +17.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 3 of 4AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 4:44AF 4th & 4 at WYO 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call37.1%48% to convertField goal37.0%−0.164% to makePunt35.8%−1.4average punt
- Q2 13:36WYO 4th & 10 at WYO 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 58.3% before the snapGo for it58.0%−0.828% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.7%average punt
- Q2 1:50AF 4th & 7 at WYO 10, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.6% before the snapGo for it44.4%−0.331% to convertField goalTheir call44.7%88% to makePunt38.7%−6.0average punt
- Q3 10:12WYO 4th & 3 at WYO 40, down 10Close callPunted · 34.8% before the snapGo for it35.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.7%−0.6average punt
- Q3 8:06AF 4th & 1 at AF 41, up 10Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 65.7% before the snapGo for it66.6%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.8%−1.8average punt
- Q3 4:28WYO 4th & 1 at AF 41, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call30.8%70% to convertField goal25.8%−5.032% to makePunt26.5%−4.3average punt
- Q4 15:00AF 4th & 1 at WYO 22, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call73.8%71% to convertField goal70.6%−3.272% to makePunt61.1%−12.7average punt
- Q4 8:44AF 4th & 4 at WYO 4, up 10Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 83.9% before the snapGo for it84.1%40% to convertField goalTheir call83.1%−1.093% to makePunt72.9%−11.2average punt
- Q4 3:00AF 4th & 10 at AF 25, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.2% before the snapGo for it81.3%−2.728% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.1%average punt
- Q4 2:55WYO 4th & 9 at WYO 43, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.9%32% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt15.5%−3.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 5 of 5AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 11:37WYO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.6%97% to makeGo for two60.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:38AF Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.1%97% to makeGo for two40.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:44WYO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.7%97% to makeGo for two62.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:41AF Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call39.8%97% to makeGo for two39.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:19AF Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.5%97% to makeGo for two64.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 4:32WYO Touchdown, down 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call16.9%97% to makeGo for two16.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:09WYO Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.4%97% to makeGo for two61.2%−7.245% to convert
- Q4 0:45WYO Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.3%97% to makeGo for two91.6%−0.845% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWYODrive 1TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2357% → 59%
AFDrive 2TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5942% → 44%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 3TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5457% → 63%
Q1 7:38
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+60
57.3%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Tyree Mayfield for 60 yds to the AFA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4TD13 plays · 75 yds · 6:0339% → 46%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 5PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q2 13:36
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+6
57.8%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to James Price for 6 yds to the Wyom 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6FG20 plays · 81 yds · 10:1243% → 50%
Q2 9:11
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+10
54.1%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 10 yds to the Wyom 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 7FUMBLE5 plays · 29 yds · 0:0053% → 54%
Q2 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+15
54.0%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Ayden Eberhardt for 15 yds Ayden Eberhardt fumbled, forced by Zane Lewis, recovered by AFA Demonte MeeksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8END OF HALF3 plays · -2 yds · 0:4750% → 51%
AFDrive 9TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:4150% → 66%
Q3 10:55
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+8
47.3%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Joseph Saucier for 8 yds to the Wyom 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 10PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q3 10:12
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
35.1%
Dontae Crow punt for 50 yds , Andrew Smith returns for no gain to the AFA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11PUNT8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0065% → 66%
Q3 8:06
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
33.9%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Andrew Smith, broken up by Conner CainSimilar
Q3 8:06
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+8
34.6%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 8 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 8:06
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
34.2%
Jake Koehnke punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Austin Conway at the Wyom 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 12DOWNS8 plays · 34 yds · 0:0030% → 31%
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+16
29.5%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to James Price for 16 yds to the Wyom 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+6
31.4%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Tyree Mayfield for 6 yds to the Wyom 47Similar
Q3 4:28
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+3
31.7%
Tyler Vander Waal run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13FG13 plays · 52 yds · 6:5776% → 91%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
23.6%
Donald Hammond III run for 14 yds to the Wyom 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-15
22.6%
FAGAN, Cole rush for 2 yards to the WY1 (WINGARD, Andrew), PENALTY AF illegal block 15 yards to the WY18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 18
+14
24.0%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Cole Fagan for 14 yds to the Wyom 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14TD17 plays · 76 yds · 4:0612% → 32%
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-7
13.5%
Tyler Vander Waal sacked by Cody Gessler for a loss of 7 yards to the Wyom 32Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 17
OWN 32
+11
12.0%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Ayden Eberhardt for 11 yds to the Wyom 43Similar
Q4 8:38
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
13.2%
Tyler Vander Waal pass incomplete to James Price WYOMING Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 6:45
4TH & 6
OWN 43
+11
9.0%
VANDER WAAL, T. pass incomplete to PRICE, James, PENALTY AF pass interference 11 yards to the AF46, 1ST DOWN WY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
10.5%
Tyler Vander Waal pass incomplete to James Price, broken up by Parker NorenSimilar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+16
10.0%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to James Price for 16 yds to the AFA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+12
12.5%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Austin Conway for 12 yds to the AFA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
13.0%
Tyler Vander Waal pass incomplete to Austin Fort, broken up by Jeremy FejedelemSimilar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 15
OPP 21
+16
10.3%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to James Price for 16 yds to the AFA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 1:3284% → 85%
Q4 3:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
14.6%
Jake Koehnke punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Austin Conway at the Wyom 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 16TD12 plays · 58 yds · 1:4626% → 82%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
25.5%
Tyler Vander Waal pass incomplete to James Price, broken up by Zane LewisSimilar
Q4 2:55
4TH & 9
OWN 43
+12
21.6%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Xazavian Valladay for 12 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
28.6%
VANDER WAAL, T. pass incomplete to MAYFIELD, Tyree, PENALTY AF holding 10 yards to the AF35, 1ST DOWN WY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+9
30.3%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Raghib Ismail Jr. for 9 yds to the AFA 26Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+9
28.6%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Tyree Mayfield for 9 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+22
81.6%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Austin Conway for 22 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
66.8%
Donald Hammond III pass intercepted Logan Wilson return for 8 yds to the AFA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 18TD5 plays · 22 yds · 0:1782% → 97%
Q4 0:45
3RD & 15
OPP 27
+27
97.3%
Xazavian Valladay run for 27 yds for a TD WYOMING Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declined (Cooper Rothe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19INT3 plays · 13 yds · 0:004% → 5%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:09
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Austin Conway for 22 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK)
+50.6
TD · Q4 4:32
Tyler Vander Waal run for 5 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK)
+22
TD · Q4 0:45
Xazavian Valladay run for 27 yds for a TD WYOMING Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declined (Cooper Rothe KICK)
+17.7