Try the model
CSU

Colorado State 10 at Nevada 49

NEV
2018 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2018 · Mackay Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:08 · Collin Hill pass incomplete to Preston Williams
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Pregame prior+14.8Home team on offense+32.3Score differential+26.6Blowout margin+14.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.0Garbage-time factor+6.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:53: Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 20 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK) — NEV win probability +0.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:03: Ty Gangi pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 38 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed PAT MISSED) — NEV win probability +4.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:28: Devonte Lee run for 1 yd for a TD Timeout NEVADA, clock 02:28 GANGI, Ty pass attempt failed, PENALTY CSU pass interference (WATSON, J.) 2 yards to the CSU1, NO PLAY. (Ty Gangi pass to Elijah Cooks for Two-Point Conversion) — NEV win probability +6.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:02: Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 36 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK) — NEV win probability +2.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:34: Devonte Lee run for 1 yd for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK) — NEV win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 12:13NEV 4th & 1 at CSU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    81.9%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    81.5%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:53CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:00NEV 4th & 4 at CSU 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    82.1%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    82.2%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:33CSU 4th & 13 at CSU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−0.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:53CSU 4th & 11 at CSU 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:58CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 33, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:07NEV 4th & 10 at CSU 49, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:56CSU 4th & 16 at CSU 21, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−1.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:41CSU 4th & 8 at CSU 20, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:34CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 34, down 35
    Close callPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:08CSU 4th & 9 at NEV 46, down 42
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−0.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    0.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:03CSU 4th & 5 at NEV 20, down 49
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:26NEV 4th & 15 at NEV 5, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:22CSU 4th & 1 at NEV 47, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:21CSU 4th & 14 at NEV 14, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 6 of 7CSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:53NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:03NEV Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    86.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:28NEV Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    91.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:02NEV Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:34NEV Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:08NEV Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:42NEV Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:32CSU Touchdown, down 43 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1INT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
85.7%
Collin Hill pass complete to EJ Scott for 7 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
85.7%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 4 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
85.7%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 6 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+4
85.7%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 4 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
85.7%
Collin Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
85.7%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
50
+14
85.7%
Collin Hill pass intercepted Asauni Rufus return for 14 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2TD
7 plays · 47 yds · 3:2085% → 85%
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
85.1%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 13
50
+15
85.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 15 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
85.1%
Kelton Moore run for 4 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+5
85.1%
Toa Taua run for 5 yds to the ColSt 26Similar
Q1 12:13
3RD & 1
OPP 26
0
85.1%
Devonte Lee run for no gain to the ColSt 26Similar
Q1 12:13
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+6
85.0%
Devonte Lee run for 6 yds to the ColSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
85.4%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 20 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
85.0%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 24Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-5
85.0%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 19Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
85.1%
Collin Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 16
OWN 19
-6
85.2%
Collin Hill pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 4 yds to the ColSt 23 COLORADO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the ColSt 13Similar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+12
85.2%
Izzy Matthews run for 12 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q1 8:53
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.2%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 44 yds , McLane Mannix returns for 2 yds to the Nevad 27 NEVADA Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Nevad 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4INT
8 plays · 38 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
84.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 7 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+10
85.1%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Toa Taua for 10 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
85.2%
Toa Taua run for 7 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+8
85.3%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 8 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
85.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
85.3%
Kelton Moore run for 5 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+1
85.2%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the ColSt 39Similar
Q1 7:00
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
84.9%
Cristian Solano pass intercepted V.J. Banks return for no gain to the ColSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 9 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
84.3%
HILL, C. pass incomplete to MCBRIDE, T. (PETERSON, Dom), PENALTY CSU holding (KNOX, B.) 10 yards to the CSU21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 20
OWN 21
+15
84.5%
Marcus McElroy run for 15 yds to the ColSt 36Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+1
84.0%
Marcus McElroy run for 1 yd to the ColSt 37Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+6
84.3%
Collin Hill pass complete to Trey McBride for 6 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
84.1%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-6
84.2%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (-6 Yards) to the ColSt 37Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 16
OWN 37
+3
84.5%
Marcus McElroy run for 3 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 13
OWN 40
+5
84.5%
Izzy Matthews run for 5 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q1 3:33
4TH & 8
OWN 45
-5
84.6%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Marcus McElroy) to the ColSt 40Similar
Q1 3:33
4TH & 13
OWN 40
0
84.7%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 52 yds, downed at the Nevad 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 40 yds · 0:2984% → 84%
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+10
84.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 10 yds to the Nevad 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
84.5%
COLORADO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
84.6%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q1 0:18
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+12
84.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kelton Moore for 12 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
85.0%
Ty Gangi sacked by Emmanuel Jones for a loss of 10 yards to the Nevad 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 35
+2
84.4%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Toa Taua for 2 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 37
+11
84.3%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Toa Taua for 11 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
84.2%
Quinton Conaway punt for 37 yds, downed at the ColSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
84.1%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for no gain to the ColSt 15Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+3
84.2%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the ColSt 18Similar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 7
OWN 18
-4
84.4%
Collin Hill sacked by Dom Peterson and Lucas Weber for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 14Similar
Q2 12:53
4TH & 11
OWN 14
+6
84.7%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 53 yds , McLane Mannix returns for 6 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 2:0485% → 90%
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
84.6%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 38Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+5
84.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 5 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+20
84.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 20 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
85.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 38Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+38
89.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 38 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
87.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 5 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+1
87.6%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the ColSt 39Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 4
OWN 39
-8
87.8%
Collin Hill sacked by Malik Reed for a loss of 8 yards to the ColSt 33 Collin Hill fumbled, recovered by ColSt Jeff Taylor , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 8:58
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
88.3%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 42 yds, fair catch by McLane Mannix at the Nevad 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 0:0789% → 89%
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
89.1%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 16 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
89.7%
Toa Taua run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 1
50
+1
89.9%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-4
89.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Devonte Lee for a loss of 4 yards to the Nevad 47Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 14
OWN 47
0
89.5%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 14
OWN 47
+4
89.3%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q2 7:07
4TH & 10
OPP 49
+6
89.0%
Quinton Conaway punt for 28 yds , Preston Williams returns for 6 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
88.6%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Preston Williams, broken up by Jomon DotsonSimilar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+3
88.7%
Marcus McElroy run for 3 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 7
OWN 30
-9
88.7%
Marcus McElroy run for 1 yd to the ColSt 31 COLORADO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Adam Prentice) to the ColSt 21Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 16
OWN 21
0
88.9%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q2 4:56
4TH & 16
OWN 21
0
89.0%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:0790% → 96%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
89.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 5 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
90.2%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+11
89.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 11 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+48
90.3%
Toa Taua run for 48 yds to the ColSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.3%
Devonte Lee run for 1 yd for a TD Timeout NEVADA, clock 02:28 GANGI, Ty pass attempt failed, PENALTY CSU pass interference (WATSON, J.) 2 yards to the CSU1, NO PLAY. (Ty Gangi pass to Elijah Cooks for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q2 2:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
96.3%
GANGI, Ty pass attempt failed, PENALTY CSU pass interference (WATSON, J.) 2 yards to the CSU1, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:425% → 5%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
94.8%
Collin Hill pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for no gain to the ColSt 18Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-4
94.9%
Collin Hill sacked by Dom Peterson for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 14Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 14
OWN 14
+6
94.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 6 yds to the ColSt 20Similar
Q2 1:41
4TH & 8
OWN 20
0
94.8%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 45 yds, fair catch by McLane Mannix at the Nevad 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 0:3296% → 99%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
96.0%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+29
95.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Toa Taua for 29 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
98.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 36 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15END OF HALF
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.8%
Marcus McElroy run for no gain to the ColSt 25Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Marcus McElroy for 2 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
98.9%
Collin Hill run for 5 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16TD
10 plays · 86 yds · 3:2199% → 99%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
98.9%
Kelton Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 13Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 11
OWN 13
+12
98.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 12 yds to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
98.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 30 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
99.0%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
99.0%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane Mannix, broken up by Tywan FrancisSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+15
99.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 15 yds to the ColSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
99.0%
Ty Gangi run for 5 yds to the ColSt 22Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+21
99.0%
Kaleb Fossum run for 21 yds to the ColSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.4%
Devonte Lee run for 1 yd for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.3%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
99.3%
Collin Hill pass complete to Warren Jackson for 4 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q3 11:34
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
99.3%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 3 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q3 11:34
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
99.2%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 57 yds , McLane Mannix returns for 3 yds to the Nevad 37 NEVADA Penalty, Offensive holding (6 Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18TD
7 plays · 94 yds · 2:3099% → 100%
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
99.4%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 3 yds to the Nevad 9Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 7
OWN 9
0
99.4%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Romeo Doubs, broken up by Braylin ScottSimilar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 7
OWN 9
+12
99.4%
Ty Gangi run for 12 yds to the Nevad 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
99.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 11 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+33
99.5%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 33 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+28
99.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Daiyan Henley for 28 yds to the ColSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.6%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 7 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 29 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.6%
Collin Hill pass complete to EJ Scott for 15 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
99.6%
Collin Hill sacked by Kaleb Meder for a loss of 5 yards to the ColSt 35Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+18
99.7%
Collin Hill pass complete to Cameron Butler for 18 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
99.6%
Collin Hill sacked by Lucas Weber for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 48Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 11
OPP 48
0
99.6%
Collin Hill pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for no gain to the Nevad 48Similar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+2
99.6%
Collin Hill pass complete to Cameron Butler for 2 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q3 7:08
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
99.6%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20TD
4 plays · 54 yds · 1:55100% → 100%
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
99.7%
Toa Taua run for 7 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+17
99.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 17 yds to the ColSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
99.7%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+28
99.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 28 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21DOWNS
16 plays · 55 yds · 3:390% → 0%
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
99.9%
Marcus McElroy run for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 22Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+6
99.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 6 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q3 1:42
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+16
99.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Marcus McElroy for 16 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
99.9%
Marcus McElroy run for 2 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 46
-1
99.9%
Collin Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 45Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 45
+15
99.9%
NEVADA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Gabriel Sewell) to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Preston Williams, broken up by Daniel BrownSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+7
99.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Trey McBride for 7 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+8
99.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 8 yds to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
99.9%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
99.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to EJ Scott for 5 yds to the Nevad 20Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
99.9%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q4 13:03
4TH & 5
OPP 20
0
99.9%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 22FUMBLE
3 plays · 28 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
99.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Daiyan Henley for 1 yd to the Nevad 21Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+12
99.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Trevion Armstrong for 12 yds to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
99.9%
Devonte Lee run for 13 yds to the Nevad 48 Devonte Lee fumbled, forced by Quinn Brinnon, recovered by ColSt Kavapele MakaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 23TD
9 plays · 48 yds · 3:220% → 0%
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
99.9%
Adam Prentice run for 5 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+16
99.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Nikko Hall for 16 yds to the Nevad 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
99.9%
Adam Prentice run for 6 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+2
99.9%
Adam Prentice run for 2 yds to the Nevad 19Similar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+4
99.9%
Adam Prentice run for 4 yds to the Nevad 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
99.9%
Adam Prentice run for 4 yds to the Nevad 11Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+3
99.9%
Adam Prentice run for 3 yds to the Nevad 8Similar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 8 yds for a TD (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
99.9%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 4 yds to the Nevad 14Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 6
OWN 14
-1
99.9%
Jaxson Kincaide run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 13Similar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 7
OWN 13
-3
99.9%
Jaxson Kincaide run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 10Similar
Q4 8:26
4TH & 10
OWN 10
-5
99.9%
NEVADA Penalty, illegal participation (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 5Similar
Q4 8:26
4TH & 15
OWN 5
-5
99.9%
Quinton Conaway punt for 46 yds , Preston Williams returns for a loss of 5 yards to the ColSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 25FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 2:010% → 0%
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
100.0%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
100.0%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q4 6:22
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+9
100.0%
Collin Hill pass complete to EJ Scott for 9 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q4 6:22
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+2
100.0%
Collin Hill run for 2 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+38
100.0%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 38 yds to the Nevad 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
100.0%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Warren Jackson, broken up by Kyle AdamsSimilar
Q4 5:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-10
100.0%
KINSEY JR., M. rush for 7 yards to the NEVADA0, clock 05:12, PENALTY CSU holding (WILLIAMS, K.) 10 yards to the NEVADA17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
+3
100.0%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the Nevad 14Similar
Q4 5:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
100.0%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q4 4:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+32
100.0%
Wyatt Bryan 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 26END OF GAME
9 plays · 47 yds · 3:22100% → 100%
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
100.0%
Daniel Brown run for 7 yds to the Nevad 19Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+22
100.0%
Russell Booze run for 22 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
100.0%
Daniel Brown run for 1 yd to the Nevad 42Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+17
100.0%
Cristian Solano run for 17 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
100.0%
Russell Booze run for 3 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 7
OPP 38
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 40Similar
Q4 0:57
3RD & 9
OPP 40
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:28
Devonte Lee run for 1 yd for a TD Timeout NEVADA, clock 02:28 GANGI, Ty pass attempt failed, PENALTY CSU pass interference (WATSON, J.) 2 yards to the CSU1, NO PLAY. (Ty Gangi pass to Elijah Cooks for Two-Point Conversion)
+6
TD · Q2 9:03
Ty Gangi pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 38 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed PAT MISSED)
+4.7
TD · Q2 1:02
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 36 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK)
+2.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com