Try the model
UNM

New Mexico 24 at Air Force 42

AF
2018 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2018 · Falcon Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreUNM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFUMBLETDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:32 · Tyson Dyer punt for 40 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 40Pregame prior+24.7Home team on offense+2.3Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:30: Daevon Vigilant run for 11 yds for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK) — UNM win probability +11.4 pts (now 34%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:40: Kadin Remsberg run for 54 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +7.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:30: Donald Hammond III pass complete to Kade Waguespack for 43 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +7.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:46: Donald Hammond III pass complete to Kade Waguespack for 9 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +8.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:01: Cole Fagan run for 3 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +7.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UNM made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00AF 4th & 4 at UNM 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    81.8%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    81.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:34UNM 4th & 19 at AF 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−0.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    18.3%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:45AF 4th & 6 at AF 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:19UNM 4th & 3 at midfield, down 7
    Close callPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:32UNM 4th & 3 at UNM 28, down 7
    Close callPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:34AF 4th & 2 at UNM 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    80.2%−1.0
    30% to make
    Punt
    80.5%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:51UNM 4th & 20 at UNM 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−1.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:23AF 4th & 8 at AF 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00UNM 4th & 4 at AF 4, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.1%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    14.8%−7.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:42UNM 4th & 6 at UNM 15, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:53UNM 4th & 2 at UNM 37, down 11
    Close callPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:01UNM 4th & 23 at UNM 36, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:35AF 4th & 3 at UNM 38, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    98.4%−0.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    98.3%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UNM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:34AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:48AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:41UNM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:30UNM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:40AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:30AF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:46AF Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:01AF Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:2681% → 81%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
80.9%
Taven Birdow run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
80.9%
Donald Hammond III run for 7 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
80.9%
Donald Hammond III run for 18 yds to the NMex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
80.9%
Kadin Remsberg run for 6 yds to the NMex 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+2
80.9%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the NMex 38Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 38
-2
80.9%
Donald Hammond III run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 40Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 40
+4
80.9%
Kadin Remsberg run for 4 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+19
80.9%
Kadin Remsberg run for 19 yds to the NMex 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
80.9%
Donald Hammond III run for 1 yd to the NMex 16Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+16
81.1%
Christian Mallard run for 16 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
80.7%
Tyrone Owens run for 4 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
80.6%
Coltin Gerhart pass complete to Jay Griffin IV for no gain to the NMex 29Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+38
80.7%
Coltin Gerhart pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 38 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
80.3%
Coltin Gerhart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+1
80.3%
Coltin Gerhart pass complete to Elijah Lilly for 1 yd to the AFA 32Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 9
OPP 32
-8
80.4%
Coltin Gerhart sacked by Parker Noren for a loss of 8 yards to the AFA 42 Coltin Gerhart fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 10:34
4TH & 19
OPP 42
0
80.8%
Tyson Dyer punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
80.7%
Donald Hammond III run for 8 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+3
80.9%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
80.8%
Taven Birdow run for 4 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+1
80.9%
Taven Birdow run for 1 yd to the AFA 36Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 5
OWN 36
-1
80.7%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Kade Waguespack for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 35Similar
Q1 7:45
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
80.4%
Jake Koehnke punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
80.5%
Coltin Gerhart run for 11 yds to the NMex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
80.4%
Coltin Gerhart pass complete to Jay Griffin IV for 8 yds to the NMex 36Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+7
80.1%
Daevon Vigilant run for 7 yds to the NMex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
80.2%
Daevon Vigilant run for 5 yds to the NMex 48Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+2
80.0%
Daevon Vigilant run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 3
50
0
80.0%
Coltin Gerhart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:19
4TH & 3
50
0
80.3%
Tyson Dyer punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5FUMBLE
4 plays · 60 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
80.6%
Taven Birdow run for 6 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+3
80.6%
Kadin Remsberg run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 2:59
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+50
80.4%
Taven Birdow run for 50 yds to the NMex 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
81.4%
Donald Hammond III run for 1 yd to the NMex 21 Donald Hammond III fumbled, recovered by NMex Sitiveni TamaivenaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
80.1%
Tyrone Owens run for 2 yds to the NMex 23Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+5
80.1%
Tyrone Owens run for 5 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q1 1:32
3RD & 3
OWN 28
0
80.1%
Sheriron Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:32
4TH & 3
OWN 28
0
80.5%
Tyson Dyer punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 1:2480% → 85%
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
80.4%
Kadin Remsberg run for 13 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
81.0%
Donald Hammond III run for 6 yds to the NMex 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+12
81.1%
Andrew Smith run for 12 yds to the NMex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
85.3%
Donald Hammond III run for 37 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 8TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 2:0016% → 22%
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
83.6%
Zahneer Shuler run for 12 yds to the NMex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
83.5%
Daevon Vigilant run for no gain to the NMex 41Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
83.6%
Sheriron Jones run for no gain to the NMex 41Similar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+56
83.7%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Anselem Umeh for 56 yds to the AFA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
77.7%
Zahneer Shuler run for 3 yds for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9DOWNS
8 plays · 44 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-6
80.1%
BIRDOW, Taven rush for 76 yards to the NM11 (ROSS, D'Angelo;SEWELL, Jr., M.), PENALTY AF personal foul (LANDRUM, Grif) 6 yards to the AF7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 16
OWN 7
+3
80.0%
Garrett Amy run for 3 yds to the AFA 10Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 13
OWN 10
+40
80.0%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 40 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
50
+4
81.1%
Donald Hammond III run for 4 yds to the NMex 46Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+1
81.1%
Christian Mallard run for 1 yd to the NMex 44 Christian Mallard fumbled, recovered by AFA Christian MallardSimilar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+2
80.8%
Donald Hammond III run for 2 yds to the NMex 42Similar
Q2 11:34
4TH & 2
OPP 42
-1
80.2%
Taven Birdow run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:0021% → 19%
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
79.2%
Sheriron Jones run for 3 yds to the NMex 46Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
78.7%
Sheriron Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 7
OWN 46
-13
79.4%
Sheriron Jones sacked by Blake Dailey for a loss of 13 yards to the NMex 33Similar
Q2 7:51
4TH & 20
OWN 33
-5
80.9%
Tyson Dyer punt for 52 yds , Andrew Smith returns for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0081% → 79%
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
80.5%
Taven Birdow run for 6 yds to the AFA 16Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 4
OWN 16
-1
80.5%
Donald Hammond III run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 15Similar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 5
OWN 15
-3
79.9%
Geraud Sanders run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 12Similar
Q2 6:23
4TH & 8
OWN 12
+33
79.2%
Jake Koehnke punt for 38 yds AIR FORCE Penalty, IF (-5 Yards) to the AFA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 12TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 1:5222% → 34%
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
78.0%
Daevon Vigilant run for 4 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+4
78.0%
Zahneer Shuler run for 4 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+2
77.9%
Daevon Vigilant run for 2 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+24
77.2%
Daevon Vigilant run for 24 yds to the AFA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
65.7%
Daevon Vigilant run for 11 yds for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:5072% → 81%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
72.1%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+18
72.3%
Donald Hammond III run for 18 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
74.1%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Geraud SandersSimilar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+54
81.1%
Kadin Remsberg run for 54 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 14FG
10 plays · 71 yds · 1:4020% → 24%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+41
79.6%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 41 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+29
76.0%
Tyrone Owens run for 29 yds to the AFA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
77.0%
Tyrone Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 3Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
77.0%
Sheriron Jones run for no gain to the AFA 3Similar
Q2 0:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
78.9%
Tyrone Owens run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 4Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
76.1%
Andrew Shelley 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15INT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0025% → 28%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
74.9%
Daevon Vigilant run for 9 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-1
73.1%
Daevon Vigilant run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
74.4%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 4 yds to the NMex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
74.1%
Elijah Lilly run for 3 yds to the NMex 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+8
73.3%
Sheriron Jones run for 8 yds to the NMex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
72.5%
Sheriron Jones pass intercepted Grant Theil return for no gain to the AFA 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16TD
10 plays · 94 yds · 4:5774% → 87%
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+9
74.3%
Cole Fagan run for 9 yds to the AFA 15Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 1
OWN 15
+7
74.5%
Cole Fagan run for 7 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
74.6%
Cole Fagan run for 5 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+1
74.8%
Cole Fagan run for 1 yd to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 12:27
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+17
74.0%
Donald Hammond III run for 17 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
76.4%
Cole Fagan run for 4 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+6
76.6%
Donald Hammond III run for 6 yds to the NMex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
77.1%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the NMex 43Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+43
86.5%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Kade Waguespack for 43 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17FUMBLE
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
84.8%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Emmanuel Harris for 4 yds to the NMex 19Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+1
84.9%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Tyrone Owens for 1 yd Tyrone Owens fumbled, forced by Grant Theil, recovered by AFA Kyle JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18TD
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:5587% → 95%
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
86.7%
Cole Fagan run for 4 yds to the NMex 17Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+6
86.7%
Joseph Saucier run for 6 yds to the NMex 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
86.7%
Joseph Saucier run for 2 yds to the NMex 9Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
94.9%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Kade Waguespack for 9 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
93.7%
Daevon Vigilant run for 1 yd to the NMex 12Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+7
93.7%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Marcus Williams for 7 yds to the NMex 19Similar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 2
OWN 19
-4
93.7%
Sheriron Jones sacked by Jordan Jackson for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 15Similar
Q3 4:42
4TH & 6
OWN 15
0
93.8%
Tyson Dyer punt for 84 yds, downed at the AFA 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20FUMBLE TD
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
86.8%
Donald Hammond III run for no gain Donald Hammond III fumbled, forced by Adebayo Soremekun, recovered by NMex Jalin Burrell for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21FUMBLE
7 plays · 46 yds · 2:4987% → 90%
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
87.2%
Cole Fagan run for 13 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
88.2%
Andrew Smith run for 14 yds to the NMex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
88.7%
Cole Fagan run for 5 yds to the NMex 43Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+3
88.7%
Cole Fagan run for 3 yds to the NMex 40Similar
Q3 2:49
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+3
88.1%
Donald Hammond III run for 3 yds to the NMex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
89.8%
Cole Fagan run for 2 yds to the NMex 29 Cole Fagan fumbled, forced by Michael Sewell Jr., recovered by NMex Rhashaun EptingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
86.3%
Tyrone Owens run for 5 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+2
85.7%
Coltin Gerhart run for 2 yds to the NMex 36Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+1
86.0%
Tyrone Owens run for 1 yd to the NMex 37Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
86.9%
Tyson Dyer punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Andrew Smith at the AFA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 23TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:5989% → 98%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+54
88.8%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 54 yds to the NMex 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
90.2%
Cole Fagan run for 7 yds to the NMex 14Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+2
90.2%
Donald Hammond III run for 2 yds to the NMex 12Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+2
89.8%
Donald Hammond III run for 2 yds to the NMex 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
90.2%
Cole Fagan run for 7 yds to the NMex 3Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.5%
Cole Fagan run for 3 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:004% → 3%
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
96.5%
Coltin Gerhart pass complete to Anselem Umeh for 9 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
96.2%
Daevon Vigilant run for 3 yds to the NMex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
96.2%
Coltin Gerhart pass complete to Anselem Umeh for 12 yds to the NMex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
96.1%
Coltin Gerhart pass complete to Daevon Vigilant for 4 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 6
OPP 47
-8
96.1%
Coltin Gerhart sacked by Micah Capra and Lakota Wills for a loss of 8 yards to the NMex 45Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 14
OWN 45
-9
96.6%
Coltin Gerhart sacked by Jordan Jackson for a loss of 9 yards to the NMex 36Similar
Q4 10:01
4TH & 23
OWN 36
0
96.7%
Tyson Dyer punt for 64 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 25DOWNS
12 plays · 43 yds · 4:3998% → 99%
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
97.6%
Cole Fagan run for 5 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+6
97.7%
Cole Fagan run for 6 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
97.7%
Cole Fagan run for 5 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+6
97.8%
Cole Fagan run for 6 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
97.9%
Taven Birdow run for 1 yd to the AFA 43Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+8
97.9%
Donald Hammond III run for 8 yds to the NMex 49Similar
Q4 7:14
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+4
97.8%
Taven Birdow run for 4 yds to the NMex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
99.4%
Colton Parton run for 2 yds to the NMex 43Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+3
99.4%
Colton Parton run for 3 yds to the NMex 40Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+2
99.4%
Colton Parton run for 2 yds to the NMex 38Similar
Q4 2:35
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+1
99.3%
Joshua Stoner run for 1 yd to the NMex 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
97.8%
Coltin Gerhart run for 3 yds to the NMex 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:30
Daevon Vigilant run for 11 yds for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK)
-11.4
TD · Q3 4:46
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Kade Waguespack for 9 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)
+8.1
TD · Q3 7:30
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Kade Waguespack for 43 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)
+7.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com