2018 · Week 10 · Nov 3, 2018 · War Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreSJSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:45 · Bryce Crawford punt for 39 yds , Austin Conway returns for 5 yds to the Wyom 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:50: Nico Evans run for 58 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +4.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:41: Sean Chambers run for 64 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +9.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:48: Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 17 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — SJSU win probability +7.2 pts (now 13%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 8:48: Bryce Crawford kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — WYO win probability +3.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 3:53: Timeout SAN JOSÉ ST, clock 03:53 — WYO win probability +3.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 6 of 6SJSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 10:36WYO 4th & 5 at SJSU 9, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.3% before the snapGo for it86.2%−<0.136% to convertField goalTheir call86.2%89% to makePunt85.8%−0.5average punt
- Q1 10:36SJSU 4th & 14 at SJSU 21, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snapGo for it13.4%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.6%average punt
- Q1 2:55WYO 4th & 16 at SJSU 26, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.9% before the snapGo for it83.4%−0.515% to convertField goalTheir call83.9%64% to makePunt82.7%−1.3average punt
- Q1 2:55SJSU 4th & 9 at SJSU 27, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snapGo for it15.1%−0.330% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.4%average punt
- Q1 0:13WYO 4th & 3 at WYO 36, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call83.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt82.9%−0.1average punt
- Q2 14:45SJSU 4th & 6 at SJSU 20, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snapGo for it13.4%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.5%average punt
- Q2 10:45SJSU 4th & 14 at SJSU 10, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snapGo for it12.8%−0.617% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.4%average punt
- Q2 9:04WYO 4th & 7 at SJSU 49, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.2% before the snapGo for it85.1%−0.237% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.3%average punt
- Q2 7:44SJSU 4th & 10 at SJSU 4, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snapGo for it12.3%−0.925% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.2%average punt
- Q2 6:12WYO 4th & 11 at SJSU 43, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.2% before the snapGo for it85.1%−0.127% to convertField goal84.9%−0.328% to makePuntTheir call85.2%average punt
- Q2 2:13SJSU 4th & 14 at SJSU 34, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snapGo for it12.3%−0.818% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.1%average punt
- Q3 11:09SJSU 4th & 5 at WYO 9, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.2% before the snapGo for it13.5%−0.236% to convertField goalTheir call13.7%89% to makePunt7.9%−5.8average punt
- Q3 8:41SJSU 4th & 3 at SJSU 41, down 14Close callPunted · 9.8% before the snapGo for it10.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.2%−0.1average punt
- Q3 5:54WYO 4th & 1 at SJSU 37, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.3%70% to convertField goal90.3%−2.140% to makePunt90.1%−2.2average punt
- Q4 12:03SJSU 4th & 2 at WYO 18, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.7%56% to convertField goal7.1%−0.579% to makePunt2.0%−5.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SJSU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q2 14:50WYO Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.4%97% to makeGo for two86.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:41WYO Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.3%97% to makeGo for two91.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:48SJSU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick11.4%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call11.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:09WYO Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.4%97% to makeGo for two96.8%−0.645% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWYODrive 1FG11 plays · 66 yds · 4:2484% → 83%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 2PUNT6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 10:36
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+2
82.9%
Bryce Crawford punt for 47 yds , Austin Conway returns for 2 yds to the Wyom 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 3MISSED FG13 plays · 40 yds · 6:0782% → 80%
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
82.8%
BIGELOW, Jevon rush for 3 yards to the SJSU17 (HALL, Cade), PENALTY WY holding 10 yards to the SJSU30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 2:55
4TH & 9
OWN 27
+4
81.3%
Bryce Crawford punt for 48 yds , Austin Conway returns for 4 yds to the Wyom 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 5TD6 plays · 71 yds · 1:4580% → 84%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
WYODrive 7FUMBLE6 plays · 53 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
83.7%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Tyree Mayfield for 13 yds to the SJSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+19
83.8%
Austin Conway run for 19 yds to the SJSt 12 Austin Conway fumbled, forced by Tre Webb, recovered by Wyom Austin Conway for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
83.8%
Sean Chambers run for 6 yds to the SJSt 1 Sean Chambers fumbled, forced by Boogie Roberts, recovered by SJSt Jonathan Lenard Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
83.6%
Josh Love pass complete to Billy Humphreys for 1 yd to the SJSt 15Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 14
OWN 10
0
83.8%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Thai Cottrell, broken up by Marcus EppsSimilar
Q2 10:45
4TH & 14
OWN 10
+1
84.3%
Bryce Crawford punt for 43 yds , Austin Conway returns for 1 yd to the Wyom 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 9PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q2 7:44
3RD & 6
OWN 8
-4
84.9%
Josh Love sacked by Garrett Crall and Kevin Prosser for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 11PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q2 6:12
3RD & 11
OPP 43
0
83.4%
Sean Chambers pass incomplete to Nico Evans, broken up by Jonathan Lenard Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 12PUNT10 plays · 9 yds · 2:1716% → 15%
WYODrive 13END OF HALF4 plays · 14 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
SJSUDrive 14FG11 plays · 66 yds · 3:5116% → 21%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
83.6%
Josh Love pass complete to Josh Oliver for 18 yds to the SJSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+12
82.9%
Josh Love pass complete to Brett Foley for 12 yds to the Wyom 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
82.0%
LOVE, Josh pass incomplete to HARTLEY, Tre (HALL, Tyler), PENALTY WY offside 5 yards to the WY41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
81.0%
Josh Love pass complete to Josh Oliver for 11 yds to the Wyom 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 15TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:2882% → 91%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
WYODrive 17DOWNS10 plays · 49 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 5:54
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+8
92.0%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Austin Fort for 8 yds to the SJSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 18DOWNS13 plays · 45 yds · 3:489% → 6%
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-15
90.8%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the SJSt 22Similar
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+26
91.5%
Josh Love pass complete to Josh Oliver for 26 yds to the SJSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+14
93.7%
Josh Love pass complete to Sailosi Latu for 14 yds to the Wyom 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+9
93.0%
Josh Love pass complete to Bryson Bridges for 9 yds to the Wyom 17Similar
Q4 12:03
4TH & 2
OPP 18
0
94.2%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Bryson Bridges, broken up by Antonio HullSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 19FUMBLE4 plays · 20 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
96.0%
Nico Evans run for 4 yds to the Wyom 38 Nico Evans fumbled, forced by Jonathan Lenard Jr., recovered by SJSt Jesse OsunaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 20TD6 plays · 38 yds · 1:265% → 13%
Q4 10:14
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+6
95.0%
Josh Love pass complete to Tyler Nevens for 6 yds to the Wyom 32Similar
Q4 10:14
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+5
94.8%
LOVE, Josh pass incomplete to HARTLEY, Tre, PENALTY WY offside 5 yards to the WY27, 1ST DOWN SJSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
94.4%
Josh Love pass complete to Billy Humphreys for 5 yds to the Wyom 22Similar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
87.2%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 17 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 21TD16 plays · 75 yds · 7:3991% → 99%
Q4 1:09
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+20
98.8%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Austin Fort for 20 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 22END OF GAME8 plays · 24 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:03
3RD & 1
OWN 26
-5
99.2%
LOVE, Josh pass incomplete to WALKER, Tre, PENALTY SJSU illegal formation 5 yards to the SJSU21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+9
99.2%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 9 yds to the SJSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+6
99.2%
Josh Love pass complete to Tyler Nevens for 6 yds to the SJSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.2%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tyler Nevens WYOMING Penalty, roughing passer ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:41
Sean Chambers run for 64 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK)
+9
TD · Q4 8:48
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 17 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-7.2
TD · Q2 14:50
Nico Evans run for 58 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK)
+4.1