2018 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2018 · Canvas Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreWYO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:53 · Ryan Stonehouse punt for 33 yds, downed at the Wyom 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 11:08: Sean Chambers pass complete to Nico Evans for 14 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +12.1 pts (now 73%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:09: Sean Chambers run for 8 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +12.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:43: Nico Evans run for 48 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +13.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:23: Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 15 yds for a TD (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +9.6 pts (now 16%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:31: Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 10 yds for a TD (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +14.7 pts (now 18%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6WYO made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 15:00CSU 4th & 21 at CSU 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snapGo for it43.5%−0.28% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.7%average punt
- Q1 13:29WYO 4th & 15 at CSU 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snapGo for it55.9%−0.117% to convertField goal55.9%−0.130% to makePuntTheir call56.0%average punt
- Q1 10:26CSU 4th & 9 at WYO 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snapGo for it44.8%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.9%average punt
- Q1 6:57WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 41, tiedClose callPunted · 54.6% before the snapGo for it54.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.4%−0.3average punt
- Q1 3:25CSU 4th & 2 at CSU 9, tiedClose callPunted · 45.5% before the snapGo for it45.7%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.5%−0.2average punt
- Q2 11:27WYO 4th & 5 at CSU 13, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.4% before the snapGo for it53.0%−0.139% to convertField goalTheir call53.1%85% to makePunt49.7%−3.4average punt
- Q2 11:21CSU 4th & 5 at CSU 41, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snapGo for it45.2%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.6%average punt
- Q2 8:30WYO 4th & 3 at WYO 32, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snapGo for it54.0%−0.552% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.5%average punt
- Q2 0:53CSU 4th & 10 at WYO 40, down 3Close callPunted · 44.4% before the snapGo for it44.0%−0.230% to convertField goal44.2%34% to makePuntTheir call43.4%−0.9average punt
- Q2 0:25WYO 4th & 14 at WYO 3, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snapGo for it46.6%−6.615% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.1%average punt
- Q3 11:03CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 35, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snapGo for it27.7%−1.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.9%average punt
- Q3 9:45WYO 4th & 12 at WYO 31, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.6% before the snapGo for it66.9%−3.322% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.2%average punt
- Q4 12:12WYO 4th & 9 at CSU 28, up 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.1% before the snapGo for it91.5%−0.431% to convertField goalTheir call91.9%60% to makePunt88.4%−3.5average punt
- Q4 3:55WYO 4th & 5 at CSU 48, up 13Close callPunted · 95.2% before the snapGo for it95.1%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.9%−0.2average punt
- Q4 3:18WYO 4th & 3 at CSU 18, up 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.1%51% to convertField goal95.6%−0.579% to makePunt92.2%−3.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3WYO made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q3 11:08WYO Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.7%97% to makeGo for two68.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:09WYO Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.7%97% to makeGo for two83.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:43WYO Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.1%97% to makeGo for two95.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:23CSU Touchdown, down 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call7.9%97% to makeGo for two7.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:31CSU Touchdown, down 14 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call8.9%−0.297% to makeGo for two9.1%45% to convert
- Q4 7:39WYO Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.0%97% to makeGo for two96.5%−0.545% to convert
- Q4 4:10CSU Touchdown, down 14 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call5.1%−0.297% to makeGo for two5.3%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCSUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -11 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
WYODrive 2PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q1 13:29
3RD & 8
OPP 35
-5
41.4%
CHAMBERS, Sean rush for 5 yards to the CSU30 (BANKS, V.J.;WATSON, J.), PENALTY WY illegal shift 5 yards to the CSU40, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3PUNT11 plays · 33 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
42.5%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Izzy Matthews, broken up by Tyler HallSimilar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+13
42.3%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 13 yds to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+14
42.5%
Collin Hill pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
50
+8
43.1%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 8 yds to the Wyom 42Similar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 4
OPP 44
-5
43.0%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Preston Williams) to the Wyom 49Similar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
42.7%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Preston Williams, broken up by Keyon BlakenbakerSimilar
Q1 10:26
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
42.5%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wyom 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 4PUNT6 plays · 30 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 6:57
2ND & 13
OWN 8
+24
43.5%
Sean Chambers pass complete to James Price for 24 yds to the Wyom 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0044% → 43%
WYODrive 6FG11 plays · 50 yds · 4:5456% → 57%
CSUDrive 7PUNT9 plays · 35 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+18
43.7%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 18 yds to the ColSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+4
43.8%
Collin Hill pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for 4 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+8
43.3%
Collin Hill pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 8 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
44.6%
Collin Hill pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 33Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 13
OWN 33
0
43.8%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Cameron Butler, broken up by Cassh MaluiaSimilar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 13
OWN 33
+8
43.1%
Collin Hill pass complete to Warren Jackson for 8 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8PUNT6 plays · 29 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 8:30
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+1
44.4%
Dontae Crow punt for 48 yds , Olabisi Johnson returns for 1 yd to the ColSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9PUNT13 plays · 39 yds · 4:2543% → 44%
Q2 5:18
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+13
42.0%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 13 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+10
43.6%
Collin Hill pass complete to Adam Prentice for 10 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+14
44.2%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 14 yds to the Wyom 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
46.3%
Collin Hill pass complete to Cameron Butler for 7 yds to the Wyom 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 10PUNT6 plays · -4 yds · 0:1857% → 54%
CSUDrive 11MISSED FG4 plays · 12 yds · 0:1547% → 49%
WYODrive 12TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5258% → 73%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
39.1%
Sean Chambers pass complete to James Price for 13 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+17
39.2%
Sean Chambers run for 2 yds to the ColSt 29 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, personal foul (Damion Dickens) to the ColSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
27.1%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Nico Evans for 14 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
28.2%
Collin Hill pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 14 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:03
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
27.4%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Cameron Butler COLORADO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 11:03
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+1
26.7%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 44 yds , Austin Conway returns for 1 yd to the Wyom 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q3 9:45
2ND & 5
OWN 38
-7
27.3%
CHAMBERS, Sean rush for 18 yards to the CSU44 (THOMAS, T.), PENALTY WY holding (MAYFIELD, Tyree) 7 yards to the WY31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 12
OWN 31
0
29.0%
Sean Chambers pass incomplete to John Okwoli, broken up by Rashad AjayiSimilar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 12
OWN 31
0
29.7%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Raghib Ismail Jr. for no gain to the Wyom 31Similar
Q3 9:45
4TH & 12
OWN 31
0
30.5%
Dontae Crow punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Brenden Fulton at the ColSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15FUMBLE2 plays · -8 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
WYODrive 16TD4 plays · 25 yds · 0:5575% → 88%
CSUDrive 17INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
16.3%
Collin Hill pass intercepted Cassh Maluia return for no gain to the ColSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 18TD1 play · 48 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19TD12 plays · 78 yds · 4:116% → 16%
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
5.8%
Collin Hill pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for 5 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+8
5.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 8 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+9
5.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Warren Jackson for 9 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
6.1%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 10 yds to the Wyom 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
6.3%
Collin Hill pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for 4 yds to the Wyom 41Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+2
6.5%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 2 yds to the Wyom 39Similar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+11
6.5%
Collin Hill pass complete to Nikko Hall for 11 yds to the Wyom 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 20FG10 plays · 47 yds · 4:1192% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21TD9 plays · 74 yds · 1:343% → 18%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
3.2%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Cameron Butler, broken up by Logan WilsonSimilar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
3.1%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for no gain to the ColSt 26Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+5
3.1%
HILL, C. pass incomplete to MCBRIDE, T., dropped pass, PENALTY WY offside defense (GRANDERSON, C.) 5 yards to the CSU31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+47
3.2%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 47 yds to the Wyom 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+12
3.7%
Collin Hill pass complete to Nikko Hall for 12 yds to the Wyom 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 22TD6 plays · 65 yds · 2:5292% → 99%
Q4 7:39
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+43
1.4%
Sean Chambers pass complete to Tyree Mayfield for 43 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 23TD14 plays · 88 yds · 3:212% → 10%
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
2.3%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Olabisi Johnson, broken up by Andrew WingardSimilar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+2
2.3%
Collin Hill pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for 2 yds to the ColSt 14Similar
Q4 7:31
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+15
2.3%
Collin Hill pass complete to Cameron Butler for 15 yds to the ColSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
2.4%
Collin Hill pass complete to Cameron Butler for 12 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
2.5%
Collin Hill pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for 7 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+13
2.7%
Collin Hill pass complete to Warren Jackson for 13 yds to the Wyom 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
2.7%
Collin Hill pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for 12 yds to the Wyom 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
3.1%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Marcus McElroy, broken up by Carl GrandersonSimilar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
2.9%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Preston Williams, broken up by Antonio HullSimilar
Q4 7:31
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+1
2.7%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 1 yd to the Wyom 26Similar
Q4 7:31
4TH & 9
OPP 26
+15
2.6%
HILL, C. pass incomplete to JACKSON, W. (HALLIBURTON, A.), PENALTY WY pass interference (POWNELL JR, C.) 15 yards to the WY11, 1ST DOWN CSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
3.1%
Collin Hill pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for 10 yds to the Wyom 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
9.5%
Collin Hill run for 1 yd for a TD WYOMING Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 24PUNT8 plays · 5 yds · 0:1496% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 25INT2 plays · 6 yds · 0:002% → 3%
WYODrive 26Uncategorized4 plays · 13 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:31
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 10 yds for a TD (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
+14.7
TD · Q3 5:43
Nico Evans run for 48 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK)
-13.1
TD · Q3 6:09
Sean Chambers run for 8 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK)
-12.9