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BOIS

Boise State 48 at Air Force 38

AF
2018 · Week 9 · Oct 27, 2018 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Jake Koehnke punt for 52 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 98Pregame prior−15.1Home team on offense+1.3Score differential−0.8Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:12: Joseph Saucier pass complete to Andrew Smith for 32 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +13.1 pts (now 55%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:05: Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 35 yds for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — BOIS win probability +12.9 pts (now 65%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:04: Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — BOIS win probability +11.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:24: Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Kadin Remsberg for 5 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +18.8 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 3:21: Brett Rypien pass complete to John Hightower for 61 yds for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — BOIS win probability +14.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 6 of 7BOIS made the numbers' call on 1 of 5
  1. Q2 9:23BOIS 4th & 3 at AF 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    63.8%−1.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q2 7:11AF 4th & 20 at AF 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−2.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 2:43BOIS 4th & 14 at AF 40, tied
    Close callWent for it · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.8%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    61.3%
    34% to make
    Punt
    61.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:05BOIS 4th & 10 at AF 35, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.3%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    46.4%
    45% to make
    Punt
    45.8%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q3 15:00AF 4th & 8 at AF 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%
    average punt
  6. Q3 8:22BOIS 4th & 2 at AF 13, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.1%−1.4
    85% to make
    Punt
    47.9%−11.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:22AF 4th & 8 at AF 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−1.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:04AF 4th & 3 at BOIS 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    20.7%−2.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    21.3%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:20AF 4th & 2 at BOIS 20, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.6%−1.2
    75% to make
    Punt
    12.6%−8.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:14BOIS 4th & 13 at AF 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%−1.9
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.4%
    56% to make
    Punt
    75.5%−1.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:14AF 4th & 1 at AF 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.8%−2.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:15AF 4th & 5 at AF 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.7%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5BOIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 12:52BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:57AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:56BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:56AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:38BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 9:30AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:12AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:05BOIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 6:04BOIS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:24AF Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.0 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.6%−1.0
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.6%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:21BOIS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−1.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0877% → 77%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
22.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+17
22.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 17 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
22.8%
Khalil Shakir pass complete to John Hightower for 8 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+3
22.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
23.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to John Hightower for 44 yds for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5523% → 26%
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
23.2%
Cole Fagan run for 8 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+37
23.3%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Kade Waguespack for 37 yds to the BoiSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
23.5%
Cole Fagan run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+2
23.5%
Isaiah Sanders run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+8
23.4%
Isaiah Sanders run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
25.9%
Cole Fagan run for 17 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0175% → 76%
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
25.2%
Alexander Mattison run for 13 yds to the BoiSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
25.0%
Robert Mahone run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+8
24.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 8 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
24.8%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the AFA 44Similar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 5
OPP 44
0
24.8%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 5
OPP 44
-1
24.8%
Brett Rypien run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 45Similar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+10
24.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Robert Mahone for 10 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+19
24.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to John Hightower for 19 yds to the AFA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
24.7%
CT Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 18Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 12
OPP 18
+18
23.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to John Hightower for 18 yds for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:0025% → 32%
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
24.6%
Cole Fagan run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
24.7%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (Kade Waguespack) to the AFA 24Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
24.5%
Cole Fagan run for 1 yd to the AFA 25Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+28
24.3%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 28 yds to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
25.4%
Isaiah Sanders run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+9
25.4%
Cole Fagan run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
25.7%
Cole Fagan run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+5
25.7%
Taven Birdow run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 23Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+1
25.4%
Taven Birdow run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
25.7%
Isaiah Sanders run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 17Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 5
OPP 17
-3
25.7%
Isaiah Sanders run for a loss of 3 yards to the BoiSt 20Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+20
32.0%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 20 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 3:1370% → 76%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
29.8%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean ModsterSimilar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-6
29.9%
Brett Rypien sacked by Mosese Fifita for a loss of 6 yards to the BoiSt 15 BOISE ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 16
OWN 15
+17
30.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 17 yds to the BoiSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
29.5%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+10
29.5%
Alexander Mattison run for 10 yds to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+34
28.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 34 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
28.0%
Khalil Shakir run for 1 yd to the AFA 21Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+21
24.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 21 yds for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0826% → 37%
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
26.1%
Isaiah Sanders run for 6 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
26.7%
Isaiah Sanders run for 6 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+51
26.5%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Joseph Saucier for 51 yds to the BoiSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
28.4%
Taven Birdow run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 5Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+5
36.6%
Isaiah Sanders run for 5 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
32.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 7 yds to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+21
31.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 32 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, personal foul (Brody Bagnall) to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
30.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to John Hightower for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 7
50
+4
30.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 4 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
30.8%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Akilian Butler, broken up by Kyle FloydSimilar
Q2 9:23
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
31.7%
Quinn Skillin punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
35.2%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-9
35.2%
Isaiah Sanders sacked by Jabril Frazier for a loss of 9 yards to the AFA 14 AIR FORCE Penalty, intentional grounding (Isaiah Sanders) to the AFA 14Similar
Q2 7:11
4TH & 20
OWN 10
+1
33.5%
Jake Koehnke punt for 48 yds , Avery Williams returns for 1 yd to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 16
OWN 14
-4
34.0%
Isaiah Sanders run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9DOWNS
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:5368% → 64%
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
31.6%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+7
32.1%
Robert Mahone run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 3
50
+14
31.4%
Alexander Mattison run for 14 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
31.1%
Alexander Mattison run for 5 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 5
OPP 31
-1
30.3%
Alexander Mattison run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 32Similar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 6
OPP 32
-7
31.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the AFA 40 TEAM fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Brett RypienSimilar
Q2 2:43
4TH & 14
OPP 40
0
35.9%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to John Hightower, broken up by Zane LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 1:2341% → 55%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
40.7%
Isaiah Sanders run for 8 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+9
41.6%
Cole Fagan run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
41.9%
Isaiah Sanders run for 11 yds to the BoiSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
55.0%
Joseph Saucier pass complete to Andrew Smith for 32 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11TD
15 plays · 79 yds · 1:0149% → 65%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
51.2%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean ModsterSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
51.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Akilian ButlerSimilar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+14
52.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 14 yds to the BoiSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
50.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 18 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
47.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to A.J. RichardsonSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
48.2%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to John HightowerSimilar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+12
49.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 12 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
44.8%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean ModsterSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
44.9%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
47.6%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to John HightowerSimilar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 10
OPP 35
+35
34.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 35 yds for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
38.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
39.5%
Isaiah Sanders run for 6 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST down BOISE ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
42.2%
Isaiah Sanders run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
50
+2
42.5%
Cole Fagan run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 48
-4
42.0%
Isaiah Sanders run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 48Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
38.8%
Jake Koehnke punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14FG
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:1663% → 67%
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
37.2%
Alexander Mattison run for 16 yds to the BoiSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
36.2%
Khalil Shakir run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+13
35.1%
Alexander Mattison run for 13 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
34.0%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
34.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean ModsterSimilar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+27
35.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to John Hightower for 27 yds to the AFA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
33.0%
Alexander Mattison run for 5 yds to the AFA 16Similar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+3
33.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to John Bates for 3 yds to the AFA 13Similar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 2
OPP 13
0
34.1%
Alexander Mattison run for no gain to the AFA 13Similar
Q3 8:22
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+30
32.9%
Haden Hoggarth 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0036% → 34%
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
36.4%
Kadin Remsberg run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 24Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
36.1%
Isaiah Sanders pass incomplete to Brandon LewisSimilar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+3
34.6%
Isaiah Sanders run for 3 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q3 8:22
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+67
34.3%
Jake Koehnke punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 5 , Avery Williams returns for 67 yds to the AFA 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16TD
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:3970% → 81%
Q3 6:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
30.1%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the AFA 1Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
18.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17FG
12 plays · 55 yds · 5:4421% → 29%
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
20.8%
Cole Fagan run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+12
20.7%
Isaiah Sanders run for 12 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
21.9%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Andrew Smith for 14 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
23.2%
Cole Fagan run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+1
23.4%
Cole Fagan run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q3 6:04
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+1
23.0%
Isaiah Sanders run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q3 6:04
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+13
22.0%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 13 yds to the BoiSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
24.9%
Isaiah Sanders run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 23Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 5
OPP 23
0
24.9%
Isaiah Sanders pass incomplete to Andrew SmithSimilar
Q3 6:04
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+3
23.3%
Isaiah Sanders run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 20Similar
Q3 0:20
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+38
28.8%
Jake Koehnke 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 3:0176% → 82%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
23.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+27
23.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 27 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+18
21.0%
Alexander Mattison run for 18 yds to the AFA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
20.3%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+6
20.3%
Alexander Mattison run for 6 yds to the AFA 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 18
-12
21.0%
Brett Rypien sacked by Kyle Floyd for a loss of 12 yards to the AFA 30Similar
Q4 12:14
4TH & 13
OPP 30
+47
18.2%
Haden Hoggarth 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:5017% → 42%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
17.4%
Isaiah Sanders run for 13 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
18.6%
Isaiah Sanders run for 6 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+3
19.5%
Cole Fagan run for 3 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 1
OWN 47
0
19.5%
Cole Fagan run for no gain to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 12:14
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+2
18.5%
Isaiah Sanders run for 2 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
19.6%
Isaiah Sanders run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+4
21.1%
Isaiah Sanders run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
20.7%
Taven Birdow run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+11
20.5%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Andrew Smith for 11 yds to the BoiSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+19
23.2%
Kadin Remsberg run for 19 yds to the BoiSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
23.2%
Isaiah Sanders run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 7Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
23.2%
Isaiah Sanders run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 5Similar
Q4 5:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
42.1%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Kadin Remsberg for 5 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0373% → 94%
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
27.1%
Alexander Mattison run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
25.4%
Khalil Shakir pass complete to John Hightower for 2 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q4 5:24
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
25.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
24.5%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+61
6.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to John Hightower for 61 yds for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21DOWNS
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:067% → 5%
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
7.3%
Isaiah Sanders pass incomplete to Geraud SandersSimilar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
7.2%
Isaiah Sanders sacked by Riley Whimpey for a loss of 10 yards to the AFA 15Similar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+26
6.7%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Joseph Saucier for 26 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
8.5%
Isaiah Sanders pass incomplete to Marcus BennettSimilar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
8.3%
Isaiah Sanders pass incomplete to Brandon LewisSimilar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+5
7.8%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Kadin Remsberg for 5 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q4 1:15
4TH & 5
OWN 46
+4
4.5%
Kadin Remsberg run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
50
-1
3.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 11
OWN 49
-1
3.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:24
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Kadin Remsberg for 5 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)
+18.8
TD · Q4 3:21
Brett Rypien pass complete to John Hightower for 61 yds for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK)
-14.2
TD · Q2 1:12
Joseph Saucier pass complete to Andrew Smith for 32 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)
+13.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com