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FRES

Fresno State 38 at New Mexico 7

UNM
2018 · Week 8 · Oct 20, 2018 · University Stadium (NM)
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Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:30 · Tyson Dyer punt for 61 yds, downed at the FrsSt 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 152Home team on offense−52.7Pregame prior−6.3Score differential−38.9Garbage-time factor−19.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−12.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:18: Ronnie Rivers run for 16 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK) — FRES win probability +3.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:29: Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK) — FRES win probability +7.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:57: Sheriron Jones pass complete to Elijah Lilly for 16 yds for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK) — UNM win probability +6.0 pts (now 21%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:36: Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 34 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK) — FRES win probability +7.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:32: Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 15 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK) — FRES win probability +7.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 9 of 9FRES made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:59UNM 4th & 21 at UNM 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:03FRES 4th & 3 at UNM 25, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.5%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    76.8%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:03UNM 4th & 5 at UNM 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:48FRES 4th & 13 at UNM 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.4%
    85% to make
    Punt
    72.8%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:48UNM 4th & 6 at UNM 8, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00UNM 4th & 14 at UNM 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−0.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:37FRES 4th & 9 at UNM 43, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    77.9%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:07FRES 4th & 1 at UNM 17, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    78.3%−0.5
    80% to make
    Punt
    76.9%−1.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:32UNM 4th & 8 at midfield, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:54UNM 4th & 9 at UNM 32, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 39, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:43UNM 4th & 8 at UNM 38, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:13FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 37, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:30UNM 4th & 7 at UNM 28, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:24FRES 4th & 9 at FRES 22, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:11UNM 4th & 3 at FRES 3, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 0:18FRES Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:29FRES Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:57UNM Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:36FRES Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:32FRES Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:58FRES Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 0 yds · 2:0117% → 17%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
16.5%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Jay Griffin IV for 3 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
16.5%
Tyrone Owens run for 8 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
16.5%
Tyrone Owens run for 4 yds to the NMex 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-15
16.5%
JONES, Sheriron pass complete to HART-JOHNSON, D for 43 yards to the FS17 (KELLY, Anthoula), PENALTY NM pass interference (HART-JOHNSON, D) 15 yards to the NM25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 21
OWN 25
0
16.5%
Tyrone Owens run for no gain to the NMex 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 21
OWN 25
0
16.5%
Sheriron Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:59
4TH & 21
OWN 25
+43
17.4%
Tyson Dyer punt for 43 yds , KeeSean Johnson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2MISSED FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 4:4783% → 80%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
17.5%
Josh Hokit run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+1
17.4%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+6
17.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 6 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
17.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson, broken up by Marcus HayesSimilar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+2
17.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Josh Hokit for 2 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+23
17.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 23 yds to the NMex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
17.3%
Josh Hokit run for no gain to the NMex 32Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+7
17.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Josh Hokit for 7 yds to the NMex 25Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 3
OPP 25
-5
17.4%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMex 30Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+5
17.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 5 yds to the NMex 25Similar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+42
19.6%
Asa Fuller 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
19.9%
Sheriron Jones run for 3 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
20.0%
Tyrone Owens run for 2 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
19.8%
Sheriron Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+15
19.6%
Tyson Dyer punt for 42 yds , Ronnie Rivers returns for 15 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 4:1080% → 78%
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
19.9%
Josh Hokit run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+2
19.8%
Josh Hokit run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 3
50
+7
19.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 7 yds to the NMex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+26
19.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 26 yds to the NMex 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
19.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 9 yds to the NMex 8Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+4
19.5%
Josh Hokit run for 4 yds to the NMex 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
19.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Kyle RidderingSimilar
Q1 6:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
19.5%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (Markus Boyer) to the NMex 9Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
19.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q1 6:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-4
19.8%
Marcus McMaryion sacked by Evahelotu Tohi for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 13Similar
Q1 2:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
21.8%
Asa Fuller 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
21.1%
Tyrone Owens run for 2 yds to the NMex 6Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 8
OWN 6
0
21.0%
Tyrone Owens run for no gain to the NMex 6Similar
Q1 2:48
3RD & 8
OWN 6
+2
20.7%
Sheriron Jones run for 2 yds to the NMex 8Similar
Q1 2:48
4TH & 6
OWN 8
0
20.5%
Tyson Dyer punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMex 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6TD
3 plays · 46 yds · 1:0479% → 82%
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
21.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 10 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+20
21.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 20 yds to the NMex 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
18.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for 16 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 0:1819% → 18%
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
18.5%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Emmanuel Harris for 6 yds to the NMex 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
18.8%
Sheriron Jones run for 1 yd to the NMex 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
18.6%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Marcus Williams for 7 yds to the NMex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
19.0%
Zahneer Shuler run for 1 yd to the NMex 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
-15
19.0%
JONES, Sheriron pass complete to GRIFFIN IV, Jay for loss of 4 yards to the NM36, LILLY, Elijah for loss of 2 yards to the NM34 (HELMUTH, George), PENALTY NM personal foul (SHULER, Zahneer) 15 yards to the NM25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 24
OWN 25
+11
18.4%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Jay Griffin IV for 11 yds to the NMex 34 to Elijah Lilly for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 23 NEW MEXICO Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 34
+1
18.2%
Sheriron Jones run for 1 yd to the NMex 35Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 35
+14
18.1%
Tyson Dyer punt for 59 yds , Ronnie Rivers returns for 14 yds to the FrsSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 37 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
19.5%
Josh Hokit run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
19.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete, broken up by Cody BakerSimilar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+20
19.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 20 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
18.7%
FRESNO ST Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+18
19.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 18 yds to the NMex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
18.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the NMex 43Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
18.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jamire Jordan, broken up by D'Angelo RossSimilar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
18.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Justin AllenSimilar
Q2 12:37
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
19.2%
Blake Cusick punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Marcus Hayes at the NMex 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9INT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
18.6%
Emmanuel Harris run for 2 yds to the NMex 13Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 8
OWN 13
0
18.6%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete NEW MEXICO Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 9:17
3RD & 8
OWN 13
+19
18.2%
Sheriron Jones run for 19 yds to the NMex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-15
19.0%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Sheriron Jones) to the NMex 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
18.7%
Sheriron Jones pass intercepted Mike Bell return for no gain to the NMex 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10TD
8 plays · 26 yds · 4:3882% → 89%
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
17.8%
Josh Hokit run for 6 yds to the NMex 20Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+3
17.8%
Josh Hokit run for 3 yds to the NMex 17Similar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 1
OPP 17
0
18.2%
Marcus McMaryion run for no gain to the NMex 17Similar
Q2 8:07
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+3
18.6%
Marcus McMaryion run for 3 yds to the NMex 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
17.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the NMex 14Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+13
17.8%
Marcus McMaryion run for 13 yds to the NMex 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
17.9%
Josh Hokit run for no gain to the NMex 1Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
10.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 2:2414% → 21%
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
13.7%
Tyrone Owens run for 8 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+26
14.3%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Anselem Umeh for 26 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-4
14.9%
Sheriron Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 37 Sheriron Jones fumbled, recovered by NMex Sheriron JonesSimilar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
14.8%
Sheriron Jones run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+6
15.0%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Patrick Reed for 6 yds to the FrsSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
15.4%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Jay Griffin IVSimilar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+10
15.2%
JONES, Sheriron pass incomplete to UMEH, Anselm, PENALTY FS holding (ALLISON, J.) 10 yards to the FS16, 1ST DOWN NM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
21.2%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Elijah Lilly for 16 yds for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:2181% → 91%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OPP 0
+26
16.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 11 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the NMex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
9.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 34 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
12.8%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 11 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-15
13.3%
JONES, Sheriron pass incomplete to HART-JOHNSON, D, PENALTY NM pass interference (HART-JOHNSON, D) 15 yards to the NM21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 25
OWN 21
+5
12.7%
Tyrone Owens run for 5 yds to the NMex 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:2888% → 97%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
11.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
11.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 10 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
11.5%
Josh Hokit run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+2
11.3%
Josh Hokit run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+5
11.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Chris Coleman for 5 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
11.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
11.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 9 yds to the NMex 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
11.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the NMex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
11.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 7 yds to the NMex 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 35
0
10.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+16
11.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 16 yds to the NMex 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
10.7%
Jordan Mims run for 7 yds to the NMex 12Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 12
-3
10.7%
Jordan Mims run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 15Similar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+15
3.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 15 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
4.5%
Tyrone Owens run for 7 yds to the NMex 32Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
4.6%
Tyrone Owens run for 4 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
4.6%
Sheriron Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
4.5%
Tyrone Owens run for 3 yds to the NMex 39Similar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+9
4.6%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 9 yds to the NMex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
4.8%
Sheriron Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
4.8%
Tyrone Owens run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 8
50
0
4.8%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Anselem Umeh, broken up by Anthoula KellySimilar
Q3 8:32
4TH & 8
50
0
4.7%
Tyson Dyer punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 2:0097% → 99%
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
2.9%
Jordan Mims run for 12 yds to the FrsSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
2.9%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 8
OPP 0
+15
2.6%
MCMARYION, M. pass incomplete to JOHNSON, KeeSea, PENALTY NM pass interference (ROSS, D'Angelo) 15 yards to the FS49, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY, PENALTY NM unsportsmanlike conduct (BURRELL, Jalin) 15 yards to the NM36, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
2.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 13 yds to the NMex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
1.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 23 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+18
1.6%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Anselem Umeh for 18 yds to the NMex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
1.6%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (Teton Saltes) to the NMex 26Similar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 15
OWN 26
0
1.6%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Brayden Dickey, broken up by George HelmuthSimilar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 15
OWN 26
+6
1.5%
Tyrone Owens run for 6 yds to the NMex 32Similar
Q3 3:54
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
1.6%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Brayden Dickey for no gain to the NMex 32Similar
Q3 3:54
4TH & 9
OWN 32
0
1.5%
Tyson Dyer punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:0899% → 99%
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
1.0%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
1.0%
Jordan Mims run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
1.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+6
1.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 44
-5
0.5%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (Logan Hughes) to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
0.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jordan MimsSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 39
+3
0.7%
Blake Cusick punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMex 22 , Marcus Hayes returns for 3 yds to the NMex 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
0.7%
Tyrone Owens run for 6 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+8
0.7%
Tyrone Owens run for 8 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
0.7%
Sheriron Jones run for 2 yds to the NMex 38Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
0.7%
Sheriron Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
0.7%
Sheriron Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:43
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
0.7%
Tyson Dyer punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
0.6%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+9
0.6%
Jordan Mims run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
0.6%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+2
0.5%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+2
0.5%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q4 13:13
4TH & 1
OWN 42
-5
0.5%
FRESNO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q4 13:13
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
0.6%
Blake Cusick punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Marcus Hayes at the NMex 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.3%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Delane Hart-Johnson, broken up by Mykal WalkerSimilar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
0.2%
Tyrone Owens run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 24Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+4
0.2%
Sheriron Jones run for 4 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q4 9:30
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
0.2%
Tyson Dyer punt for 61 yds, downed at the FrsSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
0.3%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 13Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+5
0.3%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 3
OWN 18
+3
0.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-7
0.3%
Jordan Mims run for a loss of 7 yards to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 17
OWN 14
+4
0.3%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 13
OWN 18
+4
0.3%
Derrion Grim run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q4 8:24
4TH & 9
OWN 22
0
0.3%
Blake Cusick punt for 61 yds, downed at the NMex 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 23DOWNS
16 plays · 80 yds · 3:360% → 0%
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
0.2%
Ahmari Davis run for 10 yds to the NMex 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
0.2%
Ahmari Davis run for 10 yds to the NMex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
0.2%
Tyrone Owens run for 7 yds to the NMex 44Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+5
0.2%
Tyrone Owens run for 5 yds to the NMex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
0.2%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Patrick Reed for 7 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+5
0.2%
Sheriron Jones run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
0.2%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Patrick ReedSimilar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+9
0.2%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Emmanuel Harris for 9 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q4 3:47
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+7
0.2%
Tyrone Owens run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
0.2%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Emmanuel HarrisSimilar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+15
0.2%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Patrick Reed for 15 yds to the FrsSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
0.2%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Patrick ReedSimilar
Q4 3:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
0.2%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Delane Hart-JohnsonSimilar
Q4 3:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
0.2%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 5 yds to the FrsSt 3Similar
Q4 0:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
0.1%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Delane Hart-JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
0.1%
TEAM run for no gain to the FrsSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:36
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 34 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)
-7.8
TD · Q3 8:32
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 15 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)
-7.2
TD · Q2 3:29
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)
-7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com