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AF

Air Force 41 at UNLV 35

UNLV
2018 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2018 · Sam Boyd Stadium
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Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:53 · Isaiah Sanders run for 1 yd to the AFA 35 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 74Pregame prior−13.2Home team on offense+5.9Score differential+2.0Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:53: Max Gilliam pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 13 yds for a TD AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) to the AFA 3 UNLV Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 8 (Evan Pantels KICK) — UNLV win probability +12.0 pts (now 55%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:00: Isaiah Sanders run for 8 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +14.4 pts (now 73%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:26: Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for 69 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +9.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:45: Cole Fagan run for 49 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +11.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:34: Max Gilliam pass complete to Brandon Presley for 10 yds for a TD (Evan Pantels KICK) — UNLV win probability +19.4 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 2 of 5AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00UNLV 4th & 1 at UNLV 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:16AF 4th & 10 at UNLV 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    67.8%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:01AF 4th & 5 at UNLV 8, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.6%
    90% to make
    Punt
    59.3%−3.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 3:53AF 4th & 1 at AF 34, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    45.8%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q3 10:55UNLV 4th & 8 at UNLV 28, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  6. Q3 5:45UNLV 4th & 5 at AF 16, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.0%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    8.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−6.5
    average punt
  7. Q4 13:27UNLV 4th & 7 at AF 30, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    14.7%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q4 7:34AF 4th & 8 at AF 27, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−2.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%
    average punt
  9. Q4 6:36UNLV 4th & 8 at AF 30, down 6
    Close callWent for it · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.5%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    26.0%
    56% to make
    Punt
    21.4%−4.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:44AF 4th & 2 at UNLV 24, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    90.1%−0.6
    68% to make
    Punt
    85.8%−4.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 5 of 5AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 2:16UNLV Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:23UNLV Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:46AF Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:53UNLV Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:36AF Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:00AF Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:26AF Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:45AF Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 0:40UNLV Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:34UNLV Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNLVDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
28.1%
Lexington Thomas run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+11
28.1%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Brandon Presley for 11 yds to the UNLV 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
28.1%
Max Gilliam run for 1 yd to the UNLV 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
28.1%
Hayes Hicken punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 5:5671% → 69%
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+17
29.0%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Joseph Saucier for 17 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
28.8%
Joseph Saucier run for 2 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+5
28.8%
Ronald Cleveland run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 3
50
+10
28.8%
Kadin Remsberg run for 10 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
28.8%
Kadin Remsberg run for no gain to the UNLV 40Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
28.8%
Joseph Saucier run for 9 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+2
28.8%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the UNLV 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
28.7%
Joseph Saucier run for 4 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+10
28.7%
SANDERS, Isaiah pass incomplete to BENNETT, Marcus, PENALTY UNLV holding (FLOWERS,Jericho) 10 yards to the UNLV15, 1ST DOWN AF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
28.7%
Ronald Cleveland run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 17Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+2
28.8%
Isaiah Sanders run for 2 yds to the UNLV 15Similar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
28.8%
Kadin Remsberg run for no gain to the UNLV 15Similar
Q1 7:16
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+32
30.9%
Jake Koehnke 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3TD
15 plays · 92 yds · 4:5531% → 37%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
30.9%
Lexington Thomas run for 4 yds to the UNLV 12Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 6
OWN 12
0
30.9%
Max Gilliam pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+22
30.6%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 22 yds to the UNLV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
31.1%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo for 12 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
31.7%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Brandon PresleySimilar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+10
31.3%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 10 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
31.9%
Lexington Thomas run for 8 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+10
31.9%
GILLIAM,Max pass incomplete to COLLINS,Tyleek, PENALTY AF holding (LEWIS, Zane) 10 yards to the AF26, 1ST DOWN UNLV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
32.1%
Lexington Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 12
OPP 28
0
32.0%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Brandon Presley, broken up by Dailen SuttonSimilar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 12
OPP 28
+20
31.6%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Tyleek Collins for 20 yds to the AFA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
32.1%
Max Gilliam run for 3 yds to the AFA 5Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
32.1%
UNLV Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 10Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
37.0%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 10 yds for a TD (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4FG
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:0964% → 64%
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
35.6%
Ronald Cleveland run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 16Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 11
OWN 16
+28
35.8%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for 28 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
34.6%
Joseph Saucier run for 9 yds to the UNLV 47Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+4
34.2%
Cole Fagan run for 4 yds to the UNLV 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+30
35.4%
Ronald Cleveland run for 40 yds to the UNLV 3 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the UNLV 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-3
34.8%
Kadin Remsberg run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 16
+8
35.0%
Kadin Remsberg run for 8 yds to the UNLV 8Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
35.4%
Isaiah Sanders run for no gain to the UNLV 8Similar
Q2 13:01
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+26
36.5%
Jake Koehnke 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5TD
3 plays · 82 yds · 0:3338% → 44%
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
37.5%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo for 8 yds to the UNLV 26Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+74
44.1%
Lexington Thomas run for 74 yds for a TD (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3756% → 63%
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
44.4%
Isaiah Sanders run for 5 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+21
43.9%
Kadin Remsberg run for 21 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+24
42.5%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 24 yds to the UNLV 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
41.4%
Cole Fagan run for 5 yds to the UNLV 20Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+7
41.4%
Kadin Remsberg run for 7 yds to the UNLV 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
41.4%
Cole Fagan run for 4 yds to the UNLV 9Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+3
41.4%
Cole Fagan run for 3 yds to the UNLV 6Similar
Q2 8:46
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+6
37.3%
Isaiah Sanders run for 6 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7TD
14 plays · 78 yds · 4:4840% → 56%
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
40.2%
Evan Owens run for 1 yd to the UNLV 23Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 9
OWN 23
0
40.1%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Darren Woods Jr.Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+23
39.2%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Brandon Presley for 23 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
42.0%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Brandon Presley for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 44Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+13
40.9%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Brandon Presley for 13 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
42.5%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Drew Tejchman for 5 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+7
42.5%
Lexington Thomas run for 7 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
42.9%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Noah Bean for 2 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+15
42.9%
GILLIAM,Max pass incomplete to TEJCHMAN,Drew, PENALTY AF pass interference (NOREN, Parker) 15 yards to the AF14, 1ST DOWN UNLV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
42.9%
Lexington Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 15Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+2
42.9%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Tyleek Collins for 2 yds to the AFA 13Similar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+13
54.9%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 13 yds for a TD AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) to the AFA 3 UNLV Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 8 (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
Q2 3:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
55.9%
UNLV Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1746% → 60%
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
53.8%
Isaiah Sanders run for 5 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
53.0%
Ronald Cleveland run for 3 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
53.4%
Cole Fagan run for 1 yd to the AFA 34Similar
Q2 3:53
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
54.2%
Isaiah Sanders run for 1 yd to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
53.1%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 20 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+19
51.0%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Garrett Amy for 19 yds to the UNLV 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+23
49.3%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 23 yds to the UNLV 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
39.6%
Isaiah Sanders run for 3 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
46.0%
Lexington Thomas run for 3 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:0055% → 73%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+45
45.2%
Isaiah Sanders run for 45 yds to the UNLV 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
40.9%
Cole Fagan run for 4 yds to the UNLV 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+3
40.6%
Kadin Remsberg run for 3 yds to the UNLV 23Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+6
41.9%
Isaiah Sanders run for 6 yds to the UNLV 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
40.6%
Isaiah Sanders run for 5 yds to the UNLV 12Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 12
-10
40.6%
BIRDOW, Taven rush for 3 yards to the UNLV9 (MCCOY,Gabe;AZIZ,Ammir), PENALTY AF holding (DALGER, Lesley) 10 yards to the UNLV22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 22
+14
41.6%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 14 yds to the UNLV 8Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+8
27.2%
Isaiah Sanders run for 8 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0032% → 30%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
31.6%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Brandon Presley for 9 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+2
32.4%
Lexington Thomas run for 2 yds to the UNLV 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
32.1%
Max Gilliam run for 2 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
32.1%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Tyleek CollinsSimilar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 8
OWN 28
0
30.8%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Mekhi StevensonSimilar
Q3 10:55
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
30.0%
Hayes Hicken punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12TD
2 plays · 64 yds · 0:5272% → 82%
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
27.6%
Ronald Cleveland run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 31Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+69
17.7%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for 69 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13INT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+18
20.0%
Lexington Thomas run for 3 yds to the UNLV 21 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Mosese Fifita) to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
20.5%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Darren Woods Jr., broken up by Ross ConnorsSimilar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-8
20.2%
Max Gilliam sacked by Brody Bagnall for a loss of 8 yards to the UNLV 28Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 18
OWN 28
0
19.0%
Max Gilliam pass intercepted Jeremy Fejedelem return for no gain to the AFA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14TD
3 plays · 69 yds · 1:2883% → 95%
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
16.8%
Isaiah Sanders run for 11 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
15.7%
Cole Fagan run for 9 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+49
4.6%
Cole Fagan run for 49 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:058% → 20%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
7.8%
Lexington Thomas run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 21Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+10
7.6%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo for 10 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+10
8.0%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Mekhi Stevenson for 10 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+25
8.5%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 25 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
9.5%
Lexington Thomas run for no gain to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+13
9.5%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Lexington Thomas for 13 yds to the AFA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
9.8%
Max Gilliam run for 6 yds to the AFA 15Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 4
OPP 15
-1
9.8%
Xzaviar Campbell run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 16Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 5
OPP 16
0
9.3%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Mekhi StevensonSimilar
Q3 5:45
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+10
9.0%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 5 yds to the AFA 11 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, face mask (5 yards) (Mosese Fifita) to the AFA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
11.3%
Evan Owens run for 4 yds to the AFA 2Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
19.9%
Lexington Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD (Evan Pantels KICK) AIR FORCE Penalty, illegal participation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16FUMBLE
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:4088% → 88%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
12.0%
Isaiah Sanders run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
11.8%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for 3 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
12.0%
UNLV Penalty, offside defense (Kolo Uasike) to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
11.8%
Cole Fagan run for no gain to the AFA 33 Cole Fagan fumbled, forced by Javin White, recovered by UNLV Jericho FlowersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 17MISSED FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4019% → 16%
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
18.8%
Max Gilliam run for 3 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
19.1%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Brandon PresleySimilar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
17.3%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Brandon Presley, broken up by Zane LewisSimilar
Q4 13:27
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+48
16.0%
Evan Pantels 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18FUMBLE
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0090% → 91%
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
9.9%
Isaiah Sanders run for 6 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+10
9.5%
Isaiah Sanders run for 10 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
9.2%
Isaiah Sanders run for 2 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+5
9.2%
UNLV Penalty, offside defense (Kolo Uasike) to the UNLV 47Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+6
8.8%
Taven Birdow run for 6 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
9.1%
Kadin Remsberg run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 44 Kadin Remsberg fumbled, recovered by UNLV Demitrious GibbsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 19TD
7 plays · 44 yds · 2:5515% → 36%
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
15.0%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo for 1 yd to the AFA 43Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+6
14.5%
Lexington Thomas run for 6 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q4 10:29
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+3
15.0%
Lexington Thomas run for 3 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
16.1%
Lexington Thomas run for 4 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+20
16.4%
Tyleek Collins run for 20 yds to the AFA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
16.4%
Lexington Thomas run for no gain to the AFA 10Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
35.8%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Brandon Presley for 10 yds for a TD (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0079% → 77%
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
20.7%
Joseph Saucier run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
20.5%
Isaiah Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:34
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
21.6%
Isaiah Sanders pass incomplete to Geraud SandersSimilar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+6
23.1%
Jake Koehnke punt for 51 yds , Tyleek Collins returns for 6 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 21DOWNS
13 plays · 42 yds · 0:0027% → 29%
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
27.2%
Lexington Thomas run for 3 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+10
27.4%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Drew Tejchman for 10 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
30.2%
Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd to the UNLV 42Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 9
OWN 42
-8
28.7%
Max Gilliam sacked by Jordan Jackson for a loss of 8 yards to the UNLV 34Similar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 17
OWN 34
+14
24.7%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Brandon Presley for 14 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q4 6:36
4TH & 3
OWN 48
+6
28.2%
GILLIAM,Max pass incomplete to COLLINS,Tyleek, PENALTY AF pass interference (LEWIS, Zane) 6 yards to the AF46, 1ST DOWN UNLV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
32.5%
AIR FORCE Penalty, delay of game (Cody Gessler) to the AFA 41Similar
Q4 6:36
1ST & 5
OPP 41
-2
32.6%
Lexington Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 43Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+11
32.4%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Mekhi Stevenson for 11 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
34.6%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Drew Tejchman for 4 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 6
OPP 28
-2
34.6%
Max Gilliam run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 30Similar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
32.0%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Tyleek Collins for no gain to the AFA 30Similar
Q4 6:36
4TH & 8
OPP 30
0
28.5%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Darren Woods Jr., broken up by Jordan JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22Uncategorized
5 plays · 56 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+38
8.8%
Isaiah Sanders run for 38 yds to the UNLV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
7.1%
Isaiah Sanders run for 1 yd to the UNLV 31Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+4
7.1%
Isaiah Sanders run for 4 yds to the UNLV 27Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+3
7.3%
Isaiah Sanders run for 3 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q4 1:44
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+10
9.1%
Isaiah Sanders run for 10 yds to the UNLV 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:34
Max Gilliam pass complete to Brandon Presley for 10 yds for a TD (Evan Pantels KICK)
+19.4
TD · Q3 11:00
Isaiah Sanders run for 8 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)
-14.4
TD · Q2 3:53
Max Gilliam pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 13 yds for a TD AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) to the AFA 3 UNLV Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 8 (Evan Pantels KICK)
+12
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com