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CSU

Colorado State 28 at Boise State 56

BOIS
2018 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2018 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:48 · Quinn Skillin punt for 30 yds, downed at the ColSt 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 73Pregame prior+29.2Home team on offense+24.4Score differential+20.4Blowout margin+7.1Garbage-time factor+7.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:15: A.J. Richardson 35 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Haden Hoggarth Kick) — BOIS win probability +1.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:00: Kekaula Kaniho 74 Yd Punt Return (Haden Hoggarth Kick) — BOIS win probability +2.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:11: Alexander Mattison 3 Yd Run (Haden Hoggarth Kick) — BOIS win probability +1.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:13: Warren Jackson 8 Yd pass from K.J. Carta-Samuels (Wyatt Bryan Kick) — CSU win probability +2.2 pts (now 3%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:09: Garrett Collingham 4 Yd Run (Haden Hoggarth Kick) — BOIS win probability +1.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:46CSU 4th & 8 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:55CSU 4th & 14 at CSU 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 1:48BOIS 4th & 9 at midfield, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%
    average punt
  4. Q3 11:22CSU 4th & 19 at CSU 29, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  5. Q3 8:26BOIS 4th & 10 at CSU 47, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  6. Q4 14:50CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 41, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q4 4:55CSU 4th & 1 at BOIS 12, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 8 of 8CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:39BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:15BOIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:00BOIS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:11BOIS Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:24BOIS Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:02CSU Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:13CSU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:09BOIS Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:45BOIS Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 9:01CSU Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 8:54BOIS Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 4:48CSU Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0094% → 94%
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
94.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 27 yds to the ColSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
94.3%
Alexander Mattison run for 12 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
94.2%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Khalil ShakirSimilar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+27
94.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 27 yds to the ColSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-4
94.0%
Alexander Mattison run for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 13Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
94.1%
A.J. Richardson 13 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Haden Hoggarth Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:396% → 6%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
94.0%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the ColSt 26Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
93.9%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Warren Jackson for 9 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
93.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 13 yds to the ColSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
93.7%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the ColSt 49Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
93.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Trey McBrideSimilar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+1
93.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:46
4TH & 8
50
0
93.6%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 5:2194% → 94%
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
93.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
93.5%
Alexander Mattison run for no gain to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+12
93.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 12 yds to the BoiSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
93.4%
Andrew Van Buren run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+4
93.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Matt Pistone for 4 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+5
93.3%
Rypien, Brett pass incomplete to Hightower, John, PENALTY COLOST pass interference (Ajayi, Rashad) 5 yards to the BOISEST44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOISEST.Similar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
93.4%
Khalil Shakir run for 15 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
93.4%
Alexander Mattison run for 7 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 3
OPP 34
-1
93.3%
Alexander Mattison run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 35Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+9
93.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 9 yds to the ColSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-4
93.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alexander Mattison for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 30Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 14
OPP 30
0
93.0%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to John HightowerSimilar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 14
OPP 30
-5
92.9%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (Garrett Collingham) to the ColSt 35Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 19
OPP 35
+35
94.1%
A.J. Richardson 35 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Haden Hoggarth Kick)Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 0
OPP 3
-5
94.3%
BOISE ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 8Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 24
OWN 35
+15
94.0%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4FUMBLE TD
11 plays · 17 yds · 4:006% → 4%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
93.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Warren Jackson for 24 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
93.7%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
93.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q1 3:07
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+15
93.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 15 yds to the BoiSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
93.5%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for no gain to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-10
93.4%
Matthews, Izzy rush for 2 yards to the BOISEST30, PENALTY COLOST holding (McBride, Trey) 10 yards to the BOISEST42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 20
OPP 42
-15
93.7%
K.J. Carta-Samuels sacked by Chase Hatada and Curtis Weaver for a loss of 15 yards to the ColSt 43Similar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 35
OWN 43
-1
93.8%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 42Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 36
OWN 42
+74
95.9%
Kekaula Kaniho 74 Yd Punt Return (Haden Hoggarth Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:584% → 4%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
95.8%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 29Similar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 15
OWN 29
-2
95.9%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 27Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 17
OWN 27
+5
96.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Cameron Butler for 5 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 12
OWN 32
-2
96.1%
K.J. Carta-Samuels sacked by Curtis Weaver for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 30Similar
Q2 12:55
4TH & 14
OWN 30
+11
96.2%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 58 yds , Avery Williams returns for 11 yds to the BoiSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 2:2996% → 98%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
96.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 8 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+10
96.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 10 yds to the BoiSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
96.6%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to A.J. RichardsonSimilar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+19
96.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 19 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
96.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 8 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+29
96.7%
CT Thomas run for 29 yds to the ColSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.2%
Alexander Mattison 3 Yd Run (Haden Hoggarth Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7INT
6 plays · 63 yds · 1:182% → 2%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
98.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for 27 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+34
98.2%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 34 yds to the BoiSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
98.1%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 12Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 8
OPP 12
0
98.2%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Izzy MatthewsSimilar
Q2 8:37
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+6
98.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass intercepted Kekaula Kaniho return for 6 yds to the BoiSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 42 yds · 6:3298% → 99%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
98.3%
Alexander Mattison run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 15Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+1
98.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chase Blakley for 1 yd to the BoiSt 16Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+6
98.5%
Alexander Mattison run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-7
98.7%
Brett Rypien sacked by Ellison Hubbard for a loss of 7 yards to the BoiSt 15Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 17
OWN 15
-3
98.8%
Brett Rypien sacked by Darius Campbell for a loss of 3 yards to the BoiSt 12Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 20
OWN 12
+26
98.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Garrett Collingham for 26 yds to the BoiSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
99.0%
Alexander Mattison run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+2
98.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chase Blakley for 2 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
99.0%
Alexander Mattison run for 7 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+1
99.0%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd to the ColSt 43Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 2
OPP 43
-7
99.0%
Brett Rypien run for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:48
4TH & 9
50
0
99.1%
Quinn Skillin punt for 30 yds, downed at the ColSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9INT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:471% → 1%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
99.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Anthony Hawkins for 1 yd to the ColSt 21Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+5
99.4%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 5 yds to the ColSt 26Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+10
99.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 10 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.2%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Trey McBrideSimilar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+24
99.2%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass intercepted Avery Williams return for 24 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10TD
4 plays · 32 yds · 0:1699% → 99%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
99.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 9 yds to the ColSt 23Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+6
99.3%
Alexander Mattison run for 6 yds to the ColSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
99.3%
Sean Modster 17 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Haden Hoggarth Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:081% → 1%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+28
99.4%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 13 yds to the BoiSt 38 for a 1ST down BOISE ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Avery Williams) to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
99.0%
Preston Williams 47 Yd pass from K.J. Carta-Samuels (Wyatt Bryan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 3:234% → 1%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
95.8%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 12 yds to the ColSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
99.4%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Warren Jackson for 6 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+6
99.2%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 6 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.4%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
99.4%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 7
OWN 41
-12
99.4%
K.J. Carta-Samuels sacked by Curtis Weaver for a loss of 12 yards to the ColSt 29Similar
Q3 11:22
4TH & 19
OWN 29
+14
99.5%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 58 yds , Avery Williams returns for 14 yds to the BoiSt 43 BOISE ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Robert Lewis) to the BoiSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 36 yds · 2:49100% → 100%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+25
99.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 25 yds to the BoiSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
99.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 11 yds to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
99.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+2
99.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 5
OPP 42
-5
99.7%
Brett Rypien sacked by Tre Thomas for a loss of 5 yards to the ColSt 47Similar
Q3 8:26
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
99.7%
Quinn Skillin punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Brenden Fulton at the ColSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14TD
6 plays · 87 yds · 1:590% → 3%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+56
99.6%
Izzy Matthews run for 56 yds to the BoiSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+5
99.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Cameron Butler for 5 yds to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+9
99.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Warren Jackson for 9 yds to the BoiSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
99.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 9 yds to the BoiSt 8Similar
Q3 6:13
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+8
97.4%
Warren Jackson 8 Yd pass from K.J. Carta-Samuels (Wyatt Bryan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15TD
8 plays · 53 yds · 2:3698% → 100%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
98.2%
Brett Rypien run for 6 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+19
98.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 19 yds to the ColSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
98.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chase Blakley for 12 yds to the ColSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
98.3%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Garrett CollinghamSimilar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+2
97.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the ColSt 14Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+10
98.5%
Brett Rypien run for 10 yds to the ColSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.8%
Garrett Collingham 4 Yd Run (Haden Hoggarth Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16FUMBLE
14 plays · 38 yds · 3:260% → 0%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
99.8%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 5 yds to the ColSt 14Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+6
99.8%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 6 yds to the ColSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Adam PrenticeSimilar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-5
99.8%
COLORADO ST Penalty, False Start (Olabisi Johnson) to the ColSt 15Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+14
99.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Warren Jackson for 14 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q3 1:10
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
99.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the ColSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
99.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for 9 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q3 0:17
2ND & 1
OWN 41
0
99.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 41
0
99.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels run for no gain to the ColSt 41Similar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+3
99.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.9%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:31
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-5
99.9%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 39Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 15
OWN 39
+8
99.9%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 8 yds Olabisi Johnson fumbled, forced by Avery Williams, recovered by BoiSt Kekoa NawahineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17TD
5 plays · 41 yds · 2:00100% → 100%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
99.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 8 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+4
99.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
99.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the ColSt 26Similar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+1
99.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Garrett Collingham for 1 yd to the ColSt 25Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+25
99.9%
Sean Modster 25 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Haden Hoggarth Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 2:190% → 0%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+14
99.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 14 yds to the ColSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
99.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Warren Jackson for 8 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+13
99.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 13 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
99.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Cameron Butler for 9 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+9
99.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 9 yds to the BoiSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+20
99.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Marcus McElroy for 20 yds to the BoiSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.9%
Warren Jackson 10 Yd pass from Collin Hill (Wyatt Bryan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:570% → 0%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
99.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Warren Jackson for 17 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
99.9%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+6
99.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 6 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+5
99.9%
BOISE ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.9%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+11
99.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Trey McBride for 11 yds to the BoiSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
99.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 12 yds to the BoiSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
99.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 6 yds Preston Williams fumbled, forced by Tony Lashley, recovered by ColSt Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 4
OPP 15
0
99.9%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+3
99.9%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 12Similar
Q4 4:55
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+7
99.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
Izzy Matthews 5 Yd Run (Wyatt Bryan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21END OF GAME
9 plays · 51 yds · 4:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.9%
Andrew Van Buren run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+4
99.9%
Andrew Van Buren run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+14
99.9%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to Akilian Butler for 14 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+20
99.9%
Andrew Van Buren run for 5 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Jamori Fox) to the ColSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
99.9%
Andrew Van Buren run for 3 yds to the ColSt 21Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+3
100.0%
Andrew Van Buren run for 3 yds to the ColSt 18Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+5
100.0%
Andrew Van Buren run for 5 yds to the ColSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
100.0%
Jaylon Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:13
Warren Jackson 8 Yd pass from K.J. Carta-Samuels (Wyatt Bryan Kick)
-2.2
TD · Q1 0:00
Kekaula Kaniho 74 Yd Punt Return (Haden Hoggarth Kick)
+2.1
TD · Q2 10:11
Alexander Mattison 3 Yd Run (Haden Hoggarth Kick)
+1.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com