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UNM

New Mexico 18 at Colorado State 20

CSU
2018 · Week 7 · Oct 13, 2018 · Canvas Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreUNM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:54 · Ryan Stonehouse punt for 61 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 108Home team on offense+24.9Score differential+12.9Garbage-time factor+12.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.1Pregame prior−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 4:14: Tyrone Owens run for 4 yds to the NMex 27 — CSU win probability +5.8 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:07: Sheriron Jones pass complete to Elijah Lilly for 23 yds for a TD SHELLEY, Andrew kick attempt good, PENALTY CSU offside (AJAYI, R.) 1 yards to the CSU2, NO PLAY. (S. Jones Run For Two-point Conversion) — CSU win probability +2.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:07: COLORADO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Tre Thomas) to the 50 yard line — CSU win probability +2.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 2:35: Wyatt Bryan 22 yd FG GOOD — CSU win probability +2.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:01: Sheriron Jones pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 5 yds for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK) — CSU win probability +1.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9UNM made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 13:50UNM 4th & 10 at UNM 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:02CSU 4th & 2 at CSU 37, up 7
    Close callPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:35UNM 4th & 10 at CSU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    48.5%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:22CSU 4th & 8 at CSU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%
    average punt
  5. Q3 15:00CSU 4th & 13 at UNM 47, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%−2.6
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:54UNM 4th & 3 at UNM 27, down 17
    Close callPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:13CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 46, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:35CSU 4th & 3 at UNM 4, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.6%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    87.1%−5.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:13UNM 4th & 1 at CSU 47, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%−2.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00CSU 4th & 14 at CSU 3, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−2.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:54CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 39, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:17UNM 4th & 21 at UNM 9, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−1.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:29CSU 4th & 1 at UNM 1, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.4%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−1.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:17UNM 4th & 5 at UNM 25, down 17
    Close callPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:00CSU 4th & 8 at UNM 8, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:50CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1FUMBLE
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
43.3%
Tyrone Owens run for no gain to the NMex 15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-7
43.3%
Tyrone Owens run for a loss of 7 yards to the NMex 12 Tyrone Owens fumbled, forced by Caleb Smith, recovered by ColSt Tre ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2TD
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:2744% → 44%
Q1 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
43.6%
Izzy Matthews run for 7 yds to the NMex 5Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+5
44.2%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 5 yds for a TD (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
44.1%
Sheriron Jones sacked by Devin Phillips for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 21Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-3
44.1%
Sheriron Jones sacked by Devin Phillips and Ellison Hubbard for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 18Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+7
44.1%
Sheriron Jones run for 7 yds to the NMex 25Similar
Q1 13:50
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
44.1%
Tyson Dyer punt for 46 yds, downed at the ColSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
45.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 9 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 1
OWN 38
-1
45.6%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 37Similar
Q1 12:02
3RD & 2
OWN 37
0
45.4%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:02
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
45.2%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMex 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 42 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
46.1%
Emmanuel Harris run for 5 yds to the NMex 20Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+12
46.1%
Zahneer Shuler run for 12 yds to the NMex 32 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
45.9%
Zahneer Shuler run for 3 yds to the NMex 35Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+10
45.9%
Emmanuel Harris run for 10 yds to the NMex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
45.8%
Zahneer Shuler run for 2 yds to the NMex 47Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+1
45.7%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Tyrone Owens for 1 yd to the NMex 48Similar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+9
45.9%
Sheriron Jones run for 9 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
45.6%
Tyrone Owens run for a loss of 5 yards to the ColSt 48Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 15
OPP 48
+5
45.9%
Tyrone Owens run for 5 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q1 10:35
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
46.1%
Tyson Dyer punt for 34 yds, downed at the ColSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 2:4149% → 50%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
49.2%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 11Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+3
49.2%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the ColSt 14Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 5
OWN 14
+9
48.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 9 yds to the ColSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
49.3%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 2 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
49.2%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q1 3:22
4TH & 8
OWN 25
+3
50.1%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 57 yds , Marcus Hayes returns for 3 yds to the NMex 21Similar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 8
OWN 25
-10
50.1%
CARTA-SAMUELS pass complete to JOHNSON, O. for 19 yards to the CSU44 (MANLY, Blair), PENALTY CSU holding (TAYLOR, J.) 10 yards to the CSU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 18
OWN 15
+10
50.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 10 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7DOWNS
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q1 2:04
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+11
50.1%
Sheriron Jones run for 11 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 8FG
2 plays · 65 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
73.1%
Tyrone Owens run for 4 yds to the NMex 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9END OF HALF
11 plays · 31 yds · 1:0979% → 79%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
78.5%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 11 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
78.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 6 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 4
OWN 42
-5
79.3%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 37Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+8
78.7%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Warren Jackson for 8 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
78.5%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the ColSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
79.6%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 43Similar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+13
79.4%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 13 yds to the NMex 44Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 2
OPP 44
0
79.2%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 2
OPP 44
0
79.2%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
78.9%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 8 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
79.1%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
79.1%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Nikko Hall for 16 yds to the NMex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-7
79.7%
K.J. Carta-Samuels sacked by Aaron Blackwell for a loss of 7 yards to the ColSt 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 46
0
79.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston Williams, broken up by Evahelotu TohiSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 46
+10
78.5%
CARTA-SAMUELS pass intercepted by SHULER, Zahneer at the NM29, SHULER, Zahneer return to the CSU38 (MATTHEWS, I.), PENALTY NM holding (13) 10 yards to the NM44, 1ST DOWN CSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
79.7%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 48
0
79.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Warren Jackson, broken up by Evahelotu TohiSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 48
+1
78.5%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the NMex 47Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 13
OPP 47
0
77.5%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
83.0%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Elijah Lilly for 7 yds to the NMex 27Similar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
82.2%
Sheriron Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
82.6%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Emmanuel HarrisSimilar
Q3 10:54
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
83.6%
Tyson Dyer punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Olabisi Johnson at the ColSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
85.9%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston Williams, broken up by Jalin BurrellSimilar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+12
85.7%
Izzy Matthews run for 12 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
86.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Olabisi Johnson, broken up by Marcus HayesSimilar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
86.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
86.1%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:13
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
85.2%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 1:4215% → 13%
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
84.6%
Tyrone Owens run for 18 yds to the NMex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+20
83.7%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Elijah Lilly for 20 yds to the COLOST 42 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
82.8%
Tyrone Owens run for 6 yds to the ColSt 36Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+13
82.4%
Sheriron Jones run for 13 yds to the ColSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
84.4%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Elijah Lilly for 23 yds for a TD SHELLEY, Andrew kick attempt good, PENALTY CSU offside (AJAYI, R.) 1 yards to the CSU2, NO PLAY. (S. Jones Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
Q3 7:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
84.4%
Sheriron Jones run for 2 yds for a TDSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
+15
87.1%
COLORADO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Tre Thomas) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14FG
9 plays · 71 yds · 4:3289% → 91%
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
88.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 24Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
88.7%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 10 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q3 7:07
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+10
88.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 10 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+45
89.5%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 45 yds to the NMex 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
89.6%
Marcus McElroy run for 4 yds to the NMex 7Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+2
89.6%
Trey McBride run for 2 yds to the NMex 5Similar
Q3 7:07
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+1
89.4%
Trey McBride run for 1 yd to the NMex 4Similar
Q3 2:35
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+22
91.3%
Wyatt Bryan 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 1:1510% → 9%
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
90.4%
Patrick Reed run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 30Similar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+14
90.9%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Anselem Umeh for 14 yds to the NMex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
90.3%
Tyrone Owens run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 4
50
0
90.0%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Delane Hart-JohnsonSimilar
Q3 1:13
3RD & 4
50
+3
91.3%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Jeffrey Jones Jr. for 3 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q3 1:13
4TH & 1
OPP 47
0
91.4%
Tyson Dyer punt for 40 yds, downed at the ColSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:2093% → 93%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
93.3%
Izzy Matthews run for no gain to the ColSt 7Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 7
0
93.6%
Izzy Matthews run for no gain to the ColSt 7Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 7
0
93.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Olabisi JohnsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 7
-4
93.1%
COLORADO ST Penalty, delay of game (-4 Yards) to the ColSt 3Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 3
+53
93.1%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 62 yds , Marcus Hayes returns for 53 yds to the ColSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17TD
3 plays · 12 yds · 1:138% → 7%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
91.8%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Tyrone Owens for 10 yds to the ColSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
91.8%
Tyrone Owens run for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 5 Tyrone Owens fumbled, recovered by NMex Tyrone OwensSimilar
Q4 13:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
92.8%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 5 yds for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
95.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston Williams, broken up by Bijon ParkerSimilar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-4
95.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels sacked by Aaron Blackwell for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 19Similar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 14
OWN 19
+16
95.2%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 16 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
95.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the ColSt 36Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+3
95.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
95.5%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Cameron Butler, broken up by De'John RogersSimilar
Q4 12:54
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
95.2%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
95.6%
OWENS, Tyrone rush for 7 yards to the NM27 (HAWKINS, A.), PENALTY NM holding (SALTES, Teton) 10 yards to the NM10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:17
1ST & 20
OWN 10
-1
95.7%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Jay Griffin IV for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 9Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 21
OWN 9
0
95.9%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Anselem UmehSimilar
Q4 10:17
3RD & 21
OWN 9
0
95.9%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Patrick Reed, broken up by Jamal HicksSimilar
Q4 10:17
4TH & 21
OWN 9
+15
96.0%
Tyson Dyer punt for 56 yds , Olabisi Johnson returns for 15 yds to the ColSt 24 COLORADO ST Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) to the ColSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20MISSED FG
15 plays · 59 yds · 6:0897% → 99%
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
96.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 8 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+4
96.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds to the NMex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
96.8%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the NMex 45Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+26
96.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 26 yds to the NMex 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
96.9%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 6 yds to the NMex 13Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+2
96.9%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 2 yds to the NMex 11Similar
Q4 8:37
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+3
96.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the NMex 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
96.9%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Cameron Butler for 5 yds to the NMex 3Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
96.9%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Barry Wesley) to the NMex 8Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
96.9%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Preston Williams) to the NMex 13Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+12
96.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Cameron Butler for 12 yds to the NMex 1Similar
Q4 8:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.8%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, illegal participation ( Yards) to the NMex 1Similar
Q4 8:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.8%
Izzy Matthews run for no gain to the NMex 1Similar
Q4 2:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+18
98.5%
Wyatt Bryan 18 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:122% → 2%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
98.3%
Zahneer Shuler run for 3 yds to the NMex 23Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
98.3%
Sheriron Jones run for 2 yds to the NMex 25Similar
Q4 2:17
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
98.4%
Sheriron Jones pass incomplete to Jeffrey Jones Jr., broken up by Jamal HicksSimilar
Q4 2:17
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
98.5%
Tyson Dyer punt for 48 yds, downed at the ColSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22FG
13 plays · 65 yds · 2:0199% → 99%
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+16
99.4%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Warren Jackson for 16 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.5%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+15
99.4%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Cameron Butler, broken up by Stanley Barnwell Jr. for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Stanley Barnwell Jr.) to the NMex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.5%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Brenden FultonSimilar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+13
99.5%
Izzy Matthews run for 13 yds to the NMex 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
99.5%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the NMex 27Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+18
99.5%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Cameron Butler for 18 yds to the NMex 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
99.5%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds to the NMex 5Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
99.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the NMex 4Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
99.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 8Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
99.4%
Wyatt Bryan 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 4:14
Tyrone Owens run for 4 yds to the NMex 27
+5.8
TD · Q3 7:07
COLORADO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Tre Thomas) to the 50 yard line
+2.7
TD · Q3 7:07
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Elijah Lilly for 23 yds for a TD SHELLEY, Andrew kick attempt good, PENALTY CSU offside (AJAYI, R.) 1 yards to the CSU2, NO PLAY. (S. Jones Run For Two-point Conversion)
+2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com