Try the model
BOIS

Boise State 31 at Nevada 27

NEV
2018 · Week 7 · Oct 13, 2018 · Mackay Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:13 · Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 31 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 23Pregame prior−30.1Home team on offense+0.5Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:42: Ty Gangi pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 11 yds for a TD, (Ramiz Ahmed KICK) — NEV win probability +13.1 pts (now 42%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Haden Hoggarth 31 yd FG GOOD NEVADA Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declined — BOIS win probability +9.8 pts (now 71%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:12: Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 36 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — BOIS win probability +8.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:51: Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 50 yds for a TD, (Ramiz Ahmed KICK) — NEV win probability +18.9 pts (now 46%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:37: Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 41 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — BOIS win probability +15.4 pts (now 80%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 5 of 8BOIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 11:44NEV 4th & 17 at BOIS 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    20.4%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:44BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:13NEV 4th & 1 at BOIS 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    21.9%−0.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    21.8%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:15NEV 4th & 10 at BOIS 40, down 4
    Close callPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    22.3%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:56NEV 4th & 11 at BOIS 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.2%
    54% to make
    Punt
    25.7%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:08BOIS 4th & 4 at NEV 41, up 4
    Close callPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    72.7%−1.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:59NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 35, down 4
    Close callPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.2%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:12BOIS 4th & 6 at NEV 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    63.6%−0.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    63.1%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:05NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.6%−2.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:21NEV 4th & 7 at BOIS 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.8%
    87% to make
    Punt
    15.8%−11.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:52NEV 4th & 5 at BOIS 47, down 4
    Close callPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.7%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:17BOIS 4th & 8 at NEV 39, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    79.7%−1.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    78.8%−2.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:13BOIS 4th & 7 at NEV 28, up 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.4%−1.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    88.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    84.4%−3.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 6:25BOIS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:17NEV Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:49BOIS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:42NEV Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:12BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:51NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:37BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 3:1618% → 20%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
18.4%
Devonte Lee run for 11 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
18.4%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+47
18.4%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 47 yds to the BoiSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
18.4%
Kelton Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 18Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+12
18.4%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 12 yds to the BoiSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
18.4%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
18.4%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
18.4%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 11Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-6
18.4%
Ty Gangi sacked by Jabril Frazier and Durrant Miles for a loss of 6 yards to the BoiSt 17Similar
Q1 11:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 17
+35
20.2%
Ramiz Ahmed 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
20.3%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
20.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Khalil Shakir for a loss of 5 yards to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+3
20.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Akilian Butler for 3 yds to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q1 11:44
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
20.4%
Quinn Skillin punt for 40 yds, downed at the Nevad 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3FUMBLE
10 plays · 58 yds · 0:0021% → 22%
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
21.2%
Toa Taua run for 9 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+1
21.5%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
21.4%
GANGI, Ty pass incomplete to COOKS, Elijah, PENALTY BSU pass interference (HORTON, Tyler) 13 yards to the BSU42, 1ST DOWN NEVADA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
21.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 6 yds to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+2
21.5%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q1 10:13
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+1
21.5%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q1 10:13
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+2
21.3%
Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
21.6%
BOISE ST Penalty, personal foul (Sonatane Lui) to the BoiSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
21.6%
Kelton Moore run for 12 yds to the BoiSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+5
21.6%
Kelton Moore run for no gain to the BoiSt 12 Kelton Moore fumbled, forced by Jabril Frazier, recovered by BoiSt Sonatane Lui , return for 5 yds to the BoiSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4TD
3 plays · 88 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+88
21.7%
John Hightower run for 88 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
Q1 6:25
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-15
21.7%
BOISE ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (John Hightower) to the BoiSt 20Similar
Q1 6:25
1ST & GOAL
OWN 20
-10
21.7%
BOISE ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-10 Yards) to the BoiSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
22.3%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 15 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
22.4%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
22.4%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
22.2%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:15
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
21.6%
Ty Gangi punt for 39 yds, downed at the BoiSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6INT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
22.2%
Brett Rypien run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 3Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+9
22.2%
Alexander Mattison run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
22.1%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Khalil ShakirSimilar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+1
22.2%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 13Similar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 9
OWN 13
+17
22.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Akilian Butler for 17 yds to the BoiSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
22.0%
BOISE ST Penalty, false start (John Molchon) to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 15
OWN 25
0
22.1%
Brett Rypien pass intercepted Dameon Baber return for no gain to the BoiSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7TD
2 plays · 44 yds · 0:3124% → 27%
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+23
24.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 23 yds to the BoiSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
27.2%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 21 yds for a TD, (Ramiz Ahmed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8INT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:1174% → 73%
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
26.2%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 23Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+6
26.2%
Alexander Mattison run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q1 2:11
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+6
26.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 6 yds to the BoiSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
25.9%
Andrew Van Buren run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
26.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+29
27.1%
Brett Rypien pass intercepted Dameon Baber return for 29 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+99
26.7%
Ty Gangi pass intercepted for a TD Tyler Horton return for 99 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10MISSED FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 2:5324% → 25%
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
24.4%
Kelton Moore run for 21 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
25.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 11 yds to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
26.1%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 12
OPP 45
0
25.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Trae Carter-WellsSimilar
Q2 13:49
3RD & 12
OPP 45
+15
24.8%
GANGI, Ty pass incomplete to TAUA, Toa (WEAVER, Curtis), PENALTY BSU personal foul (WEAVER, Curtis) 15 yards to the BSU30, 1ST DOWN NEVADA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
26.5%
Kelton Moore run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 9
OPP 29
-2
26.5%
Kelton Moore run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q2 13:49
3RD & 11
OPP 31
0
25.5%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Jaxson KincaideSimilar
Q2 10:56
4TH & 11
OPP 31
+49
25.4%
Ramiz Ahmed 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 2:4875% → 76%
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
24.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+2
24.3%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q2 10:56
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+15
24.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 15 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
23.7%
Brett Rypien sacked by Malik Reed for a loss of 5 yards to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 15
OWN 48
+11
24.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 11 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q2 10:56
3RD & 4
OPP 41
0
24.0%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean Modster, broken up by Daniel BrownSimilar
Q2 8:08
4TH & 4
OPP 41
0
24.4%
Quinn Skillin punt for 27 yds, downed at the Nevad 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
24.9%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the Nevad 14Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+6
24.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 6 yds to the Nevad 20Similar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+6
24.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Trae Carter-Wells for 6 yds to the Nevad 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
25.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Brendan O'Leary-OrangeSimilar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-2
24.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 24Similar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 12
OWN 24
+11
24.1%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 11 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q2 7:59
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
24.8%
Quinton Conaway punt for 50 yds, downed at the BoiSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13FUMBLE
10 plays · 34 yds · 2:5273% → 75%
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
26.6%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to John BatesSimilar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+5
26.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 5 yds to the BoiSt 20Similar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+5
27.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 5 yds to the BoiSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.1%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to John HightowerSimilar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
26.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 15 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
24.7%
Robert Mahone run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+6
25.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 6 yds to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 3
OWN 47
-5
24.7%
BOISE ST Penalty, false start (Andres Preciado) to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+7
25.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to John Hightower for 7 yds John Hightower fumbled, forced by Jomon Dotson, recovered by Nevad Gabriel Sewell , return for 14 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14TD
10 plays · 35 yds · 0:4930% → 42%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
30.1%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kelton Moore for 1 yd to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+2
30.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kelton Moore for 2 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q2 1:31
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+15
28.6%
GANGI, Ty pass incomplete to FOSSUM, Kaleb, PENALTY BSU roughing passer (WHITLOCK, Blake) 15 yards to the BSU17, 1ST DOWN NEVADA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
30.1%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Anthony Palomares) to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 15
OPP 22
+15
29.7%
GANGI, Ty pass incomplete to COOKS, Elijah, PENALTY BSU pass interference (NAWAHINE, Kekoa) 15 yards to the BSU7, 1ST DOWN NEVADA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
30.1%
Kelton Moore run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 6Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
30.1%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q2 0:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
29.2%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Nate Brown) to the BoiSt 11Similar
Q2 0:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
42.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 11 yds for a TD, (Ramiz Ahmed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 0:3760% → 71%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
40.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 12 yds to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+19
38.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 19 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
36.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to CT ThomasSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+15
36.5%
Brett Rypien run for 15 yds to the Nevad 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
34.7%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to A.J. RichardsonSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+9
35.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 9 yds to the Nevad 14Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+31
29.0%
Haden Hoggarth 31 yd FG GOOD NEVADA Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:4867% → 78%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
32.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 6 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
31.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 2 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
32.4%
Khalil Shakir run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
32.3%
Alexander Mattison run for 10 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
30.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to John Hightower for 6 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+9
30.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to John Hightower for 9 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
30.2%
John Hightower run for 2 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+3
30.2%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 35
-1
30.5%
Brett Rypien sacked by Sam Hammond and Chris Green for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 36Similar
Q3 10:12
4TH & 6
OPP 36
+36
22.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 36 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 3:1424% → 46%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
24.2%
Kelton Moore run for 6 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 4
OWN 29
0
24.7%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+9
23.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 9 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
25.2%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Kaleb FossumSimilar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
25.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kelton Moore for 6 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+3
25.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kelton Moore for 3 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q3 10:05
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+2
25.4%
Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
26.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 9
50
+50
45.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 50 yds for a TD, (Ramiz Ahmed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18TD
4 plays · 69 yds · 1:0662% → 80%
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
37.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 9 yds to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+19
35.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Garrett Collingham for 19 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
20.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 41 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 4:1126% → 32%
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
25.5%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the Nevad 33Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+4
25.3%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Toa Taua for 4 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+17
25.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 17 yds to the BoiSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
28.7%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
28.7%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+16
27.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Toa Taua for 16 yds to the BoiSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
30.2%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+14
30.1%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 14 yds to the BoiSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
30.2%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 11Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 7
OPP 11
0
30.2%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 7
OPP 11
0
28.5%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange, broken up by Riley WhimpeySimilar
Q3 1:21
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+28
32.3%
Ramiz Ahmed 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20INT
14 plays · 49 yds · 1:2172% → 77%
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
28.0%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
27.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 5 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
27.0%
Brett Rypien run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
26.7%
Roman Kafentzis run for no gain to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
27.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 9 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
25.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
25.2%
Brett Rypien run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+8
25.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Akilian Butler for 8 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+5
24.7%
MATTISON, Alex rush for no gain to the NEVADA43 (ADAMS, Kyle;HAMMOND, Sam), PENALTY NEVADA offside 5 yards to the NEVADA38, 1ST DOWN BSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-3
24.8%
Alexander Mattison run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 41
+9
25.5%
Brett Rypien run for 9 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+6
24.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Akilian Butler for 6 yds to the Nevad 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+35
23.4%
Brett Rypien pass intercepted Nephi Sewell return for 35 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0038% → 34%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
37.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 6 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 4
OPP 46
-1
38.7%
Jaxson Kincaide run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 5
OPP 47
0
37.7%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Kaleb FossumSimilar
Q4 9:52
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
34.3%
Ty Gangi punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Kekoa Nawahine at the BoiSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22DOWNS
21 plays · 61 yds · 8:1373% → 94%
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
26.7%
Alexander Mattison run for no gain to the BoiSt 15Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+7
27.1%
Alexander Mattison run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+10
27.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 10 yds to the BoiSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
25.5%
Robert Mahone run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 4
OWN 38
0
23.8%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Chase BlakleySimilar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+7
24.4%
Robert Mahone run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
23.7%
Robert Mahone run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 5
50
+4
22.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+5
22.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 5 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
22.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+2
15.2%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 6
OPP 37
-2
13.9%
Alexander Mattison run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 39Similar
Q4 3:17
4TH & 8
OPP 39
+8
15.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 8 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
11.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 7
OPP 28
-2
11.3%
Alexander Mattison run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 30Similar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+2
13.2%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q4 0:13
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+4
5.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the Nevad 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
12.9%
Ty Gangi run for 1 yd to the Nevad 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:51
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 50 yds for a TD, (Ramiz Ahmed KICK)
+18.9
TD · Q3 5:37
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 41 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)
-15.4
TD · Q2 0:42
Ty Gangi pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 11 yds for a TD, (Ramiz Ahmed KICK)
+13.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com