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FRES

Fresno State 21 at Nevada 3

NEV
2018 · Week 6 · Oct 6, 2018 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:20 · Quinton Conaway punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 104Pregame prior−17.8Home team on offense−10.9Score differential−5.4Garbage-time factor−4.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:11: Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 19 yds for a TD, (Asa Fuller KICK) — FRES win probability +3.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. FUMBLE · Q2 2:29: Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 1 yd Jamire Jordan fumbled, forced by Dameon Baber, recovered by Nevad Gabriel Sewell , return for 3 yds to the Nevad 9 — FRES win probability +4.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 2:24: Kelton Moore run for 6 yds to the Nevad 15 — NEV win probability +3.4 pts (now 24%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:20: Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds for a TD, (Asa Fuller KICK) — FRES win probability +9.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:28: Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 27 yds for a TD, (Asa Fuller KICK) — FRES win probability +7.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 9 of 13FRES made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00NEV 4th & 1 at FRES 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    16.0%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    15.9%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:25FRES 4th & 15 at NEV 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    82.0%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:23NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:47FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:55NEV 4th & 12 at NEV 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:32NEV 4th & 2 at FRES 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    20.1%−1.5
    34% to make
    Punt
    20.4%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:00NEV 4th & 7 at FRES 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    17.6%−3.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:53FRES 4th & 11 at FRES 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:56NEV 4th & 5 at NEV 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:20FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 34, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:27NEV 4th & 9 at NEV 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−1.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:20FRES 4th & 1 at NEV 2, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.3%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    69.2%−3.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    60.8%−11.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:20NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 34, down 11
    Close callPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%−0.8
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:49FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 33, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−1.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:17NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 32, down 11
    Close callPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q3 5:30FRES 4th & 4 at FRES 41, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:51FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 28, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%−1.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:39NEV 4th & 17 at NEV 13, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−1.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:22NEV 4th & 4 at NEV 35, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.6%−0.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:34NEV 4th & 6 at FRES 19, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%−0.8
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−1.6
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:58NEV 4th & 8 at FRES 10, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    2.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−1.5
    average punt
  23. Q4 1:39FRES 4th & 8 at FRES 12, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 13:11FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:20FRES Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 8:28FRES Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1DOWNS
9 plays · 40 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
15.3%
Kelton Moore run for 4 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
15.3%
Cristian Solano run for 15 yds to the Nevad 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
15.3%
Kelton Moore run for 5 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+8
15.3%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 8 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
15.3%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Romeo Doubs for no gain to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-1
15.3%
Kelton Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 44
+10
15.3%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 10 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 34
-1
15.3%
McLane Mannix run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
16.9%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (Christian Cronk) to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+4
17.0%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+10
17.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Dejonte O'Neal for 10 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
16.8%
Marcus McMaryion run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
16.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 13 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
16.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 7
OPP 37
-8
16.8%
Marcus McMaryion sacked by Malik Reed for a loss of 8 yards to the Nevad 45Similar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 15
OPP 45
0
17.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q1 11:25
4TH & 15
OPP 45
0
17.1%
Blake Cusick punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Kaleb Fossum at the Nevad 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
18.5%
Cristian Solano pass incomplete to Kaleb FossumSimilar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+6
18.5%
Toa Taua run for 6 yds to the Nevad 18Similar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+7
18.3%
Cristian Solano run for 7 yds to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
18.5%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 6 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
18.7%
Cristian Solano run for 1 yd to the Nevad 32Similar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
18.5%
Cristian Solano pass incomplete to Kaleb Fossum, broken up by Mykal Walker NEVADA Penalty, illegal motion ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 8:23
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
18.3%
Quinton Conaway punt for 38 yds, downed at the FrsSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
19.7%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 2
OWN 38
0
19.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for no gain to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q1 5:47
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+1
19.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 1 yd to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q1 5:47
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
19.8%
Blake Cusick punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-11
20.9%
Cristian Solano sacked by James Bailey for a loss of 11 yards to the Nevad 9Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 21
OWN 9
+9
20.8%
Kelton Moore run for 9 yds to the Nevad 18Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 12
OWN 18
0
20.5%
Cristian Solano pass incomplete to Toa TauaSimilar
Q1 3:55
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
20.3%
Quinton Conaway punt for 51 yds, downed at the FrsSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 4:0979% → 82%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
21.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 10 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
20.8%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+17
20.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 17 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
20.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Mims for 9 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+2
20.2%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the Nevad 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
21.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 3 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+1
21.2%
Delvon Hardaway run for 1 yd to the Nevad 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+7
21.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 7 yds to the Nevad 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
18.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 19 yds for a TD, (Asa Fuller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7FG
14 plays · 51 yds · 5:1120% → 24%
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
19.6%
Toa Taua run for 8 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
20.3%
SOLANO, C. sacked for loss of 5 yards to the NEVADA28 (WALKER, Mykal), PENALTY FS offside (MCCOY, Ricky) 5 yards to the NEVADA38, 1ST DOWN NEVADA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
20.0%
Cristian Solano pass incomplete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange, broken up by Anthoula KellySimilar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+14
20.0%
Cristian Solano pass complete to McLane Mannix for 14 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
20.9%
Cristian Solano pass incomplete to Kaleb Fossum, broken up by Mike BellSimilar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+9
20.7%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 9 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q2 13:11
3RD & 1
OPP 39
-1
20.8%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q2 10:32
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+13
20.6%
Cristian Solano run for 13 yds to the FrsSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
22.0%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 4 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+3
22.0%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 3
OPP 20
-4
21.3%
Cristian Solano sacked by Jeff Allison and George Helmuth for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q2 8:00
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+41
24.1%
Ramiz Ahmed 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0078% → 76%
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
22.0%
Dejonte O'Neal run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
22.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 11
OWN 36
0
23.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q2 7:53
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
23.7%
Blake Cusick punt for 46 yds , Romeo Doubs returns for no gain to the Nevad 19 Romeo Doubs fumbled, recovered by Nevad Romeo DoubsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0024% → 22%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
23.5%
Cristian Solano pass incomplete to McLane Mannix, broken up by Jaron BryantSimilar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+2
23.4%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 2 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+3
22.7%
Cristian Solano run for 3 yds to the Nevad 24Similar
Q2 6:56
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
22.4%
Quinton Conaway punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0078% → 76%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
22.5%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (Nick Abbs) to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 15
OWN 33
0
23.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+3
24.0%
Chris Coleman run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+7
24.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Mims for 7 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q2 5:20
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
23.8%
Blake Cusick punt for 27 yds, downed at the Nevad 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11INT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0025% → 26%
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
25.2%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 31Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+12
25.1%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 12 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
27.0%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Toa Taua) to the Nevad 38Similar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+43
25.5%
Cristian Solano pass intercepted Anthoula Kelly return for 43 yds to the Nevad 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12FUMBLE
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
21.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 1 yd Jamire Jordan fumbled, forced by Dameon Baber, recovered by Nevad Gabriel Sewell , return for 3 yds to the Nevad 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13INT
8 plays · 49 yds · 0:0024% → 27%
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
24.4%
Kelton Moore run for 6 yds to the Nevad 15Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+11
24.9%
Cristian Solano run for 11 yds to the Nevad 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
25.4%
Cristian Solano run for 3 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+18
25.4%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 18 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
27.6%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 11 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
28.0%
Cristian Solano pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
27.8%
Cristian Solano pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q2 2:24
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
27.0%
Cristian Solano pass intercepted Juju Hughes return for no gain to the FrsSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
25.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
25.7%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
25.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
26.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 8 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
26.3%
Blake Cusick punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kaleb Fossum at the Nevad 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
27.7%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 1 yd to the Nevad 26Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
27.6%
Cristian Solano pass incomplete to Romeo Doubs, broken up by Anthoula Kelly NEVADA Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
26.6%
Cristian Solano pass incomplete to McLane Mannix, broken up by Mike BellSimilar
Q3 13:27
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
26.1%
Quinton Conaway punt for 74 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:0573% → 83%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+69
26.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 69 yds to the Nevad 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
23.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the Nevad 8Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+6
23.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Derrion Grim for 6 yds to the Nevad 2Similar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 1
OPP 2
0
24.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the Nevad 2Similar
Q3 10:20
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+2
17.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds for a TD, (Asa Fuller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
17.3%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 5 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
17.7%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
17.5%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the Nevad 34Similar
Q3 10:20
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
17.0%
Quinton Conaway punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
17.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Chris Coleman for 11 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
16.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Chris ColemanSimilar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
16.8%
Jordan Mims run for no gain to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q3 8:49
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
17.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jared RiceSimilar
Q3 8:49
4TH & 10
OWN 33
+11
17.6%
Blake Cusick punt for 54 yds , Kaleb Fossum returns for 11 yds to the Nevad 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1117% → 16%
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
17.4%
Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+7
17.7%
Cristian Solano run for 7 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q3 6:17
3RD & 1
OWN 33
-1
16.2%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 32Similar
Q3 6:17
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
15.9%
Quinton Conaway punt for 33 yds, downed at the FrsSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
16.0%
Dejonte O'Neal run for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+10
16.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 10 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
15.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Dejonte O'NealSimilar
Q3 5:30
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
16.3%
Blake Cusick punt for 54 yds, downed at the Nevad 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 22INT
12 plays · 49 yds · 3:4915% → 17%
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
14.8%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Reagan Roberson for 6 yds to the Nevad 11Similar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 4
OWN 11
+4
14.9%
Devonte Lee run for 4 yds to the Nevad 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
14.9%
Cristian Solano run for 6 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+1
15.4%
Cristian Solano run for 1 yd to the Nevad 22Similar
Q3 3:49
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+5
14.8%
Cristian Solano run for 5 yds to the Nevad 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
15.4%
Kelton Moore run for 5 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 5
OWN 32
-4
15.7%
Cristian Solano sacked by Patrick Belony and Keiti Iakopo for a loss of 4 yards to the Nevad 28Similar
Q3 3:49
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+13
14.4%
Cristian Solano pass complete to McLane Mannix for 13 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
16.4%
Cristian Solano run for 3 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+4
15.8%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+6
16.1%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 6 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
17.1%
Cristian Solano pass intercepted Mike Bell return for no gain to the FrsSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q4 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
14.2%
Jordan Mims run for no gain to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q4 13:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
14.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Dejonte O'Neal for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q4 13:51
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+6
15.1%
Jordan Mims run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q4 13:51
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
15.2%
Blake Cusick punt for 72 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
12.8%
Cristian Solano run for 2 yds to the Nevad 22Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
12.7%
Cristian Solano pass incomplete to Kaleb Fossum, broken up by Anthoula KellySimilar
Q4 11:39
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-9
12.2%
Cristian Solano sacked by Kevin Atkins for a loss of 9 yards to the Nevad 13Similar
Q4 11:39
4TH & 17
OWN 13
0
11.6%
Quinton Conaway punt for 31 yds, downed at the Nevad 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 25TD
4 plays · 44 yds · 1:5091% → 98%
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
9.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+1
8.8%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 1 yd to the Nevad 39Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+12
9.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 12 yds to the Nevad 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
2.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 27 yds for a TD, (Asa Fuller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 26DOWNS
19 plays · 61 yds · 4:244% → 2%
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
3.7%
Cristian Solano pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-1
3.6%
Cristian Solano run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 28Similar
Q4 8:22
3RD & 11
OWN 28
+7
3.6%
Cristian Solano run for 7 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q4 8:22
4TH & 4
OWN 35
+6
3.7%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 6 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
4.0%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 15 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
4.2%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+9
4.3%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 9 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
4.7%
Cristian Solano pass complete to McLane Mannix for 10 yds to the FrsSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
4.7%
Cristian Solano pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+4
4.5%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 4 yds to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 6
OPP 19
0
2.5%
Cristian Solano pass incomplete to Toa TauaSimilar
Q4 4:34
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+7
2.3%
Cristian Solano run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
2.8%
Cristian Solano pass incomplete to Elijah Cooks, broken up by Arron MosbySimilar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
2.8%
Cristian Solano pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+2
2.1%
Cristian Solano run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q4 3:58
4TH & 8
OPP 10
0
2.1%
Cristian Solano pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:3999% → 97%
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
1.4%
Jordan Mims run for no gain to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+6
1.2%
Jordan Mims run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 16Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 4
OWN 16
-4
1.3%
Jordan Mims run for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 12Similar
Q4 1:39
4TH & 8
OWN 12
0
2.6%
Blake Cusick punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 28Uncategorized
5 plays · 35 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+18
0.7%
Cristian Solano pass complete to McLane Mannix for 18 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
0.8%
Cristian Solano run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+10
0.9%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 10 yds to the FrsSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
0.9%
Cristian Solano pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+5
0.9%
Cristian Solano run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:20
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds for a TD, (Asa Fuller KICK)
-9.9
TD · Q4 8:28
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 27 yds for a TD, (Asa Fuller KICK)
-7.2
FUMBLE · Q2 2:29
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 1 yd Jamire Jordan fumbled, forced by Dameon Baber, recovered by Nevad Gabriel Sewell , return for 3 yds to the Nevad 9
-4.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com