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CSU

Colorado State 42 at San José State 30

SJSU
2018 · Week 6 · Oct 6, 2018 · CEFCU Stadium
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Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDSAFETYTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:55 · Ryan Stonehouse punt for 44 yds , Thai Cottrell returns for 11 yds to the SJSt 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingBlowout margin
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 195Home team on offense−40.5Score differential−17.0Garbage-time factor−12.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−12.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−12.4Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 5:17: Tyler Nevens run for 6 yds for a TD (Bryce Crawford KICK) — SJSU win probability +14.6 pts (now 23%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:08: Josh Love pass complete to Tre Hartley for 51 yds for a TD (Bryce Crawford KICK) — SJSU win probability +16.6 pts (now 36%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:28: Josh Love pass complete to Thai Cottrell for 1 yd for a TD (Bryce Crawford KICK) — SJSU win probability +21.4 pts (now 62%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:26: Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd for a TD (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +27.3 pts (now 75%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:48: Josh Love pass intercepted for a TD Rashad Ajayi return for 55 yds for a TD (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +21.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 12CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 13:54SJSU 4th & 7 at SJSU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:52SJSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 49, down 7
    Close callPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:01CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:10SJSU 4th & 11 at SJSU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:34SJSU 4th & 27 at CSU 35, down 14
    Close callPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−1.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    36.0%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:57CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 23, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%−1.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:10SJSU 4th & 10 at CSU 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:46SJSU 4th & 5 at CSU 13, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.7%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    32.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    28.2%−4.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:30SJSU 4th & 26 at SJSU 9, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−1.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:34CSU 4th & 4 at CSU 27, up 28
    Close callPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:14SJSU 4th & 6 at CSU 49, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:47CSU 4th & 22 at CSU 2, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:12CSU 4th & 2 at CSU 25, up 21
    Close callPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:23CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 34, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%−1.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00SJSU 4th & 9 at SJSU 48, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−1.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:30SJSU 4th & 1 at CSU 43, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    9.2%−3.0
    28% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−3.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:32CSU 4th & 5 at CSU 6, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:22SJSU 4th & 19 at SJSU 41, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−0.8
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:55CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 25, up 12
    Close callPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%−0.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:55SJSU 4th & 13 at SJSU 39, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.6%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 10:57CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:04CSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:24CSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:23CSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:47SJSU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:17SJSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:08SJSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:28SJSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:26CSU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 9:48CSU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:0651% → 51%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
50.7%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Hartley for 16 yds to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
50.7%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Thai Cottrell, broken up by Caleb SmithSimilar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
50.8%
Brendan Manigo run for 3 yds to the SJSt 39Similar
Q1 14:26
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
50.8%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Thai CottrellSimilar
Q1 13:54
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
50.8%
Bryce Crawford punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 2:5149% → 51%
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+22
50.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 22 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
50.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 6 yds to the SJSt 49Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+20
50.7%
Izzy Matthews run for 20 yds to the SJSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
50.7%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the SJSt 24Similar
Q1 12:38
1ST & 5
OPP 24
+3
50.7%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Adam Prentice for 3 yds to the SJSt 21Similar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+16
50.7%
Izzy Matthews run for 16 yds to the SJSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
49.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 5 yds for a TD SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
49.8%
Josh Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+17
49.8%
Tyler Nevens run for 17 yds to the SJSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
50.1%
Josh Love pass complete to JaQuan Blackwell for 7 yds to the SJSt 47Similar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 3
OWN 47
0
50.3%
Josh Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:52
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+2
50.2%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the SJSt 49Similar
Q1 10:52
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
50.0%
Bryce Crawford punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Olabisi Johnson at the ColSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:4051% → 51%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
49.5%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 2 yds to the ColSt 21Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+6
49.5%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Warren Jackson for 6 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+4
49.1%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds to the ColSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
49.0%
Anthony Hawkins run for no gain to the ColSt 31Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
48.7%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Olabisi Johnson, broken up by Dakari MonroeSimilar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
48.9%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston Williams, broken up by John Toussaint COLORADO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 7:01
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
49.1%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 45 yds, downed at the SJSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:3649% → 48%
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
49.0%
Thai Cottrell run for a loss of 5 yards to the SJSt 19Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 15
OWN 19
0
48.7%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre HartleySimilar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 15
OWN 19
+4
48.4%
Josh Love pass complete to Malike Roberson for 4 yds to the SJSt 23Similar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 11
OWN 23
+4
48.3%
Bryce Crawford punt for 36 yds , Olabisi Johnson returns for 4 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 2:4152% → 58%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+25
47.8%
Anthony Hawkins run for 25 yds to the SJSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
47.4%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+14
47.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 14 yds to the SJSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-10
47.1%
KINSEY JR., M. rush for 10 yards to the SJSU3, out-of-bounds (TOUSSAINT, John), PENALTY CSU holding (PRENTICE, A.) 10 yards to the SJSU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 20
OPP 23
+7
47.1%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 7 yds to the SJSt 16Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 13
OPP 16
+16
42.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 16 yds for a TD (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7PUNT
15 plays · 40 yds · 4:3043% → 41%
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.9%
Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the SJSt 25Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
42.9%
Josh Love pass complete to Thai Cottrell for 8 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+10
43.2%
Josh Love pass complete to Thai Cottrell for 10 yds to the SJSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
43.5%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Thai CottrellSimilar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+2
43.4%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
Q1 1:15
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+18
42.9%
Josh Love pass complete to Thai Cottrell for 3 yds to the ColSt 48 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
43.4%
Tyler Nevens run for 5 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q1 0:24
2ND & 5
OPP 32
-5
43.4%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 37Similar
Q1 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+19
43.0%
Josh Love pass complete to Josh Oliver for 19 yds to the ColSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
43.2%
Leki Nunn run for a loss of 5 yards to the ColSt 23Similar
Q2 14:26
2ND & 15
OPP 23
0
43.1%
Josh Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:23
3RD & 15
OPP 23
-12
42.1%
Josh Love sacked by Jan-Phillip Bombek for a loss of 12 yards to the ColSt 35Similar
Q2 14:23
4TH & 27
OPP 35
-5
41.5%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 40Similar
Q2 13:34
4TH & 27
OPP 35
0
40.6%
Brian Papazian punt for 35 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3161% → 61%
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
39.1%
Anthony Hawkins run for 7 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-4
38.4%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 23Similar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
38.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q2 11:57
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+15
38.7%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 51 yds , Thai Cottrell returns for 15 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:3540% → 39%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
39.5%
Josh Love pass complete to Thai Cottrell for 12 yds to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
39.6%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tyler NevensSimilar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
39.5%
Josh Love pass incomplete to JaQuan Blackwell, broken up by Rashad AjayiSimilar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
39.1%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Josh Oliver, broken up by Tywan FrancisSimilar
Q2 11:10
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
38.5%
Brian Papazian punt for 46 yds, downed at the ColSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:4163% → 63%
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
37.5%
K.J. Carta-Samuels run for 4 yds to the ColSt 5Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 6
OWN 5
0
37.2%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston Williams, broken up by Dakari MonroeSimilar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+14
37.4%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass intercepted Zamore Zigler return for 14 yds to the ColSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 11DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1639% → 38%
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
39.3%
Tyler Nevens run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 20Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 12
OPP 20
0
38.8%
Josh Love pass complete to Josh Oliver for no gain to the ColSt 20Similar
Q2 8:46
3RD & 12
OPP 20
+7
37.8%
Josh Love pass complete to Thai Cottrell for 7 yds to the ColSt 13Similar
Q2 8:46
4TH & 5
OPP 13
0
37.5%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre HartleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12TD
13 plays · 87 yds · 4:4364% → 79%
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
35.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Griffin Hammer for 12 yds to the ColSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.4%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
34.5%
Marcus McElroy run for 12 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
33.6%
Marcus McElroy run for 3 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+18
32.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Marcus McElroy for 18 yds to the SJSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
31.7%
Marcus McElroy run for 9 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+2
31.3%
Marcus McElroy run for 2 yds to the SJSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
30.9%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+7
30.8%
Marcus McElroy run for 7 yds to the SJSt 24Similar
Q2 4:24
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+5
30.9%
CARTA-SAMUELS pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, P., PENALTY SJSU offside 5 yards to the SJSU19, 1ST DOWN CSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
30.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the SJSt 16Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 7
OPP 16
0
30.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+16
21.1%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Warren Jackson for 16 yds for a TD (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · -16 yds · 0:5422% → 21%
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
22.2%
Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd to the SJSt 26Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
21.7%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Josh Oliver, broken up by Caleb SmithSimilar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-12
21.2%
Josh Love sacked by Caleb Smith for a loss of 12 yards to the SJSt 14Similar
Q2 2:41
4TH & 21
OWN 14
-5
21.1%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 9Similar
Q2 2:30
4TH & 26
OWN 9
+8
20.6%
Bryce Crawford punt for 41 yds , Olabisi Johnson returns for 8 yds to the SJSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14TD
7 plays · 42 yds · 1:5580% → 90%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
20.1%
K.J. Carta-Samuels run for 11 yds to the SJSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
16.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 11 yds to the SJSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
15.3%
CARTA-SAMUELS pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, P., PENALTY SJSU personal foul 10 yards to the SJSU10, 1ST DOWN CSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
15.3%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 15Similar
Q2 1:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+7
15.6%
Izzy Matthews run for 7 yds to the SJSt 8Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
14.7%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Cameron ButlerSimilar
Q2 0:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
9.9%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Warren Jackson for 8 yds for a TD (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
7.0%
Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the SJSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2189% → 90%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
11.3%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 4 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+2
11.4%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 2 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 4
OWN 27
0
9.2%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Olabisi JohnsonSimilar
Q3 13:34
4TH & 4
OWN 27
+12
9.7%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 38 yds , Thai Cottrell returns for 12 yds to the SJSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:0311% → 8%
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-15
10.5%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the SJSt 32Similar
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
9.8%
Tyler Nevens run for 9 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+6
8.9%
Tyler Nevens run for 6 yds to the SJSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
9.7%
Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the SJSt 47Similar
Q3 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
8.8%
Josh Love pass complete to Josh Oliver for 4 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q3 11:14
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
8.1%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Thai CottrellSimilar
Q3 11:14
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
8.0%
Brian Papazian punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Olabisi Johnson at the ColSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 2:1793% → 95%
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-9
7.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels sacked by Jamal Scott for a loss of 9 yards to the ColSt 5Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 19
OWN 5
+2
6.6%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 7Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 17
OWN 7
-4
6.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels sacked by Tre Webb and Jamal Scott for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 3Similar
Q3 8:47
4TH & 21
OWN 3
-1
5.5%
COLORADO ST Penalty, delay of game (-1 Yards) to the ColSt 2Similar
Q3 8:47
4TH & 22
OWN 2
+19
5.5%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 42 yds , Thai Cottrell returns for 19 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:508% → 13%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
8.3%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Malike RobersonSimilar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
7.9%
Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd to the ColSt 24Similar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+24
12.8%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Hartley for 24 yds for a TD (Bryce Crawford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:3191% → 92%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
8.6%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the ColSt 20Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 7
OWN 20
0
7.8%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Griffin Hammer, broken up by Dakari MonroeSimilar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 7
OWN 20
-5
8.1%
COLORADO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 15Similar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 12
OWN 15
+10
8.2%
Collin Hill pass complete to Griffin Hammer for 10 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q3 7:12
4TH & 2
OWN 25
+19
8.2%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 55 yds , Thai Cottrell returns for 19 yds to the SJSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 21TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 1:0811% → 23%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
11.2%
Josh Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
8.5%
Brendan Manigo run for no gain to the SJSt 39Similar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+15
7.9%
LOVE, Josh pass incomplete to COTTRELL, Thai, QB hurry by DICKENS, D., PENALTY CSU roughing passer (DICKENS, D.) 15 yards to the CSU46, 1ST DOWN SJSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+40
8.7%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 40 yds to the ColSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
23.3%
Tyler Nevens run for 6 yds for a TD (Bryce Crawford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:5483% → 84%
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
17.2%
Izzy Matthews run for 7 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-5
16.9%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 27Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
17.1%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q3 4:16
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
16.5%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Colby Meeks) to the ColSt 25Similar
Q3 4:16
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
16.8%
Collin Hill run for 9 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q3 3:23
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
16.4%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Thai Cottrell at the SJSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 23TD
4 plays · 77 yds · 1:1018% → 36%
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+23
17.7%
Josh Love pass complete to Josh Oliver for 23 yds to the SJSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
19.6%
Josh Love run for 3 yds to the SJSt 49Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
19.7%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Josh OliverSimilar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+51
36.3%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Hartley for 51 yds for a TD (Bryce Crawford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
30.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass intercepted Alii Matau return for 10 yds to the ColSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 25TD
4 plays · 17 yds · 1:3041% → 62%
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
40.7%
Thai Cottrell run for 8 yds to the ColSt 9Similar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+7
40.7%
Tyler Nevens run for 7 yds to the ColSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
40.7%
Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd to the ColSt 1Similar
Q3 0:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.1%
Josh Love pass complete to Thai Cottrell for 1 yd for a TD (Bryce Crawford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 26SF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q3 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-2
60.4%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 2 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:1465% → 61%
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
65.4%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q3 0:14
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
64.6%
Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd to the SJSt 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
62.5%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Josh Oliver, broken up by Josh WatsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
60.6%
Brian Papazian punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 28TD
12 plays · 83 yds · 3:2440% → 75%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
59.7%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 10 yds to the ColSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+32
59.4%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 32 yds to the SJSU 41 for a 1ST down SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
55.0%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the SJSt 39Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
55.1%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Warren Jackson, broken up by Bobby Brown IISimilar
Q4 13:22
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+14
55.7%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Warren Jackson for 14 yds to the SJSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
52.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 13 yds to the SJSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
52.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 7 yds to the SJSt 5Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+4
54.2%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds to the SJSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
54.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels run for no gain to the SJSt 1Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
54.3%
Izzy Matthews run for no gain to the SJSt 1Similar
Q4 11:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
25.1%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd for a TD (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 29INT TD
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:3037% → 13%
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
50
-1
37.3%
Josh Love sacked by Jan-Phillip Bombek for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 49Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 11
OWN 49
-4
34.5%
Josh Love sacked by Jan-Phillip Bombek for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 45Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 15
OWN 45
+55
13.1%
Josh Love pass intercepted for a TD Rashad Ajayi return for 55 yds for a TD (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 30INT
11 plays · 37 yds · 2:3914% → 12%
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
13.5%
Malike Roberson run for 11 yds to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
13.9%
Malike Roberson run for 6 yds to the SJSt 42Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
14.4%
Josh Love pass complete to Malike Roberson for 3 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
Q4 8:48
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
14.1%
Tyler Nevens run for 3 yds to the SJSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
13.5%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Josh OliverSimilar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
13.1%
Tyler Nevens run for 9 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 1
OPP 43
0
14.0%
Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the ColSt 43Similar
Q4 7:30
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+5
11.3%
Tyler Nevens run for 5 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
11.5%
Josh Love pass intercepted Jordan Fogal return for no gain to the ColSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 31PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2993% → 94%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
6.9%
K.J. Carta-Samuels run for 3 yds to the ColSt 4Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+2
6.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 6Similar
Q4 5:37
3RD & 5
OWN 6
0
6.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Trey McBrideSimilar
Q4 5:32
4TH & 5
OWN 6
0
6.1%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 32PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:048% → 7%
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
50
0
8.3%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Josh OliverSimilar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 10
50
-9
7.7%
Josh Love sacked by Ellison Hubbard for a loss of 9 yards to the SJSt 41Similar
Q4 5:22
3RD & 19
OWN 41
0
6.6%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Josh OliverSimilar
Q4 5:22
4TH & 19
OWN 41
0
6.6%
Bryce Crawford punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 33PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:3695% → 97%
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
5.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 20Similar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+3
5.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the ColSt 23Similar
Q4 3:41
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+2
5.0%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q4 2:55
4TH & 3
OWN 25
+11
2.7%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 44 yds , Thai Cottrell returns for 11 yds to the SJSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 34DOWNS
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:524% → 2%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
3.6%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Tre Hartley for 5 yds to the SJSt 47Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 5
OWN 47
-8
3.6%
Montel Aaron sacked by Tre Thomas for a loss of 8 yards to the SJSt 39Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 13
OWN 39
0
2.4%
Montel Aaron pass incomplete to Tre HartleySimilar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 13
OWN 39
0
2.3%
Montel Aaron pass incomplete to Tre HartleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 35END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 1:0998% → 98%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
1.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 40Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 11
OPP 40
-2
1.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 42Similar
Q4 0:37
3RD & 13
OPP 42
-1
1.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:26
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd for a TD (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
-27.3
TD · Q4 9:48
Josh Love pass intercepted for a TD Rashad Ajayi return for 55 yds for a TD (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
-21.5
TD · Q3 0:28
Josh Love pass complete to Thai Cottrell for 1 yd for a TD (Bryce Crawford KICK)
+21.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com