2018 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2018 · War Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreBOIS score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:35 · Haden Hoggarth 30 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:39: Alexander Mattison run for 13 yds for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — WYO win probability +1.2 pts (now 14%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:02: Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 21 yds for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — BOIS win probability +3.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:42: Khalil Shakir run for 2 yds for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — BOIS win probability +3.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:49: Nico Evans run for 75 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +4.6 pts (now 11%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- FG · Q3 9:23: Haden Hoggarth 33 yd FG GOOD — BOIS win probability +3.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 6 of 9BOIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 9:39WYO 4th & 3 at WYO 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snapGo for it17.6%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.6%average punt
- Q1 8:25BOIS 4th & 6 at BOIS 25, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snapGo for it82.1%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.2%average punt
- Q1 6:12WYO 4th & 7 at WYO 35, down 7Close callWent for it · 18.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.2%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt18.3%average punt
- Q1 4:36BOIS 4th & 8 at WYO 22, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.5% before the snapGo for it81.3%−0.233% to convertField goalTheir call81.5%72% to makePunt80.2%−1.3average punt
- Q1 4:36WYO 4th & 2 at WYO 41, down 7Close callPunted · 19.0% before the snapGo for it19.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.0%−0.1average punt
- Q2 15:00BOIS 4th & 1 at WYO 23, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call80.8%71% to convertField goal80.1%−0.770% to makePunt78.1%−2.6average punt
- Q2 11:02WYO 4th & 14 at BOIS 49, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snapGo for it15.6%−0.719% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.4%average punt
- Q2 5:42WYO 4th & 9 at WYO 45, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snapGo for it10.5%−0.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.8%average punt
- Q2 0:35BOIS 4th & 10 at WYO 13, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.0% before the snapGo for it92.6%−0.526% to convertField goalTheir call93.1%85% to makePunt91.3%−1.8average punt
- Q3 9:23BOIS 4th & 3 at WYO 16, up 17Close callKicked a field goal · 89.6% before the snapGo for it89.4%51% to convertField goalTheir call89.1%−0.381% to makePunt84.1%−5.2average punt
- Q3 9:23WYO 4th & 12 at WYO 38, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snapGo for it7.2%−1.223% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.4%average punt
- Q3 6:37BOIS 4th & 9 at WYO 44, up 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snapGo for it95.2%−0.332% to convertField goal94.6%−0.927% to makePuntTheir call95.5%average punt
- Q3 2:09WYO 4th & 18 at WYO 30, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snapGo for it2.8%−1.912% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.6%average punt
- Q4 13:55BOIS 4th & 8 at BOIS 32, up 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snapGo for it96.8%−0.833% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.5%average punt
- Q4 13:33WYO 4th & 5 at WYO 34, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snapGo for it2.8%−0.441% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.2%average punt
- Q4 12:40BOIS 4th & 4 at BOIS 45, up 20Close callPunted · 97.2% before the snapGo for it97.4%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.3%−0.1average punt
- Q4 10:45WYO 4th & 8 at BOIS 49, down 20Close callWent for it · 2.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.3%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.4%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 1 of 2BOIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 9:39BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.9%97% to makeGo for two81.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:02BOIS Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.6%97% to makeGo for two82.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:42BOIS Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.9%97% to makeGo for two88.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:49WYO Touchdown, down 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call10.5%97% to makeGo for two10.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:29BOIS Touchdown, up 26 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.8%45% to convert
- Q4 5:47WYO Touchdown, down 21 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call1.3%−<0.197% to makeGo for two1.3%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBOISDrive 1TD13 plays · 75 yds · 5:2188% → 86%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
12.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alexander Mattison for a loss of 3 yards to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+5
12.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 5 yds to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+20
12.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 20 yds to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 46
0
12.5%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to A.J. Richardson, broken up by Youhanna GhaifanSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+4
12.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
50
+15
12.5%
WYOMING Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Wyom 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
12.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to John Hightower for 4 yds to the Wyom 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+4
12.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 4 yds to the Wyom 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 2PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
14.1%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to James Price for 5 yds to the Wyom 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+6
14.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 6 yds to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+3
14.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chase Blakley for 3 yds to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q1 8:25
4TH & 6
OWN 25
+42
14.4%
Quinn Skillin punt for 42 yds , Austin Conway returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 4FUMBLE5 plays · -8 yds · 0:3715% → 15%
Q1 6:12
4TH & 7
OWN 35
-11
14.9%
Team run for a loss of 11 yards to the Wyom 24 Team fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Jalen WalkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5MISSED FG4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2686% → 85%
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
14.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Akilian Butler for no gain to the Wyom 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 6PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 4:36
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+5
15.7%
BOISE ST Penalty, delay of game (5 Yards) to the Wyom 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 6
OWN 37
-1
15.9%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Nico Evans for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 36 WYOMING Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+5
15.6%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Austin Conway for 5 yds to the Wyom 41Similar
Q1 4:36
4TH & 2
OWN 41
-6
15.7%
Tim Zaleski punt for 40 yds , Khalil Shakir returns for a loss of 6 yards to the BoiSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7TD17 plays · 87 yds · 6:2184% → 87%
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
16.2%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to A.J. Richardson, broken up by Antonio HullSimilar
Q1 2:23
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+10
16.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Robert Mahone for 10 yds to the BoiSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
16.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Robert Mahone for 5 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+20
16.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 20 yds to the Wyom 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
15.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 8 yds to the Wyom 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 36
-15
15.9%
RYPIEN, Brett rush for 19 yards to the WY17, PENALTY BSU illegal helmet contact 15 yards to the BSU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 49
+19
16.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 19 yds to the Wyom 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 25
-5
15.8%
RYPIEN, Brett pass complete to COLLINGHAM, G. for 7 yards to the WY18 (HALLIBURTON, A.), PENALTY BSU illegal touching 5 yards to the WY30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+6
15.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 6 yds to the Wyom 24Similar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
12.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 21 yds for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8PUNT8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
13.7%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Tyree Mayfield for 13 yds to the Wyom 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 9
OPP 44
-13
14.4%
Tyler Vander Waal sacked by Chase Hatada for a loss of 13 yards to the WYOMING 43 WYOMING Penalty, intentional grounding ( Yards) to the Wyom 43Similar
Q2 11:02
3RD & 22
OWN 43
+8
13.7%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Nico Evans for 8 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q2 11:02
4TH & 14
OPP 49
0
13.8%
Tim Zaleski punt for 34 yds , Khalil Shakir returns for no gain to the BoiSt 8 Khalil Shakir fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Khalil Shakir BOISE ST Penalty, Offensive holding (7 Yards) to the BoiSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9TD6 plays · 92 yds · 2:0586% → 91%
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+46
13.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 46 yds to the Wyom 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
12.7%
RYPIEN, Brett pass incomplete to SHAKIR, Khalil, PENALTY WY pass interference 14 yards to the WY32, 1ST DOWN BSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+31
12.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to John Hightower for 31 yds to the Wyom 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 10PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 0:009% → 9%
BOISDrive 11FG9 plays · 30 yds · 2:3792% → 93%
WYODrive 12END OF HALF11 plays · 20 yds · 0:259% → 13%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
8.5%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Raghib Ismail Jr. for 5 yds to the Wyom 30Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
8.1%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Raghib Ismail Jr. for 8 yds to the Wyom 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-9
8.1%
Tyler Vander Waal sacked by DeAndre Pierce for a loss of 9 yards to the Wyom 29Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 19
OWN 29
+22
7.3%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Raghib Ismail Jr. for 22 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-6
12.7%
Tyler Vander Waal sacked by Jabril Frazier for a loss of 6 yards to the Wyom 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 13TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14FG18 plays · 66 yds · 5:2290% → 95%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
10.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Akilian Butler for 3 yds to the BoiSt 21Similar
Q3 14:45
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+8
10.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 8 yds to the BoiSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:45
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+25
9.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 25 yds to the Wyom 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
9.2%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean Modster, broken up by Marcus EppsSimilar
Q3 14:45
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+10
9.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 10 yds to the Wyom 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 15PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 0:007% → 7%
BOISDrive 16PUNT9 plays · 47 yds · 0:0095% → 96%
Q3 6:37
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+11
4.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Octavius Evans for 11 yds to the BoiSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
4.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 13 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 6
OPP 41
-3
4.1%
Brett Rypien sacked by Carl Granderson for a loss of 3 yards to the Wyom 44Similar
Q3 6:37
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
4.5%
Quinn Skillin punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Austin Conway at the Wyom 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 17PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 2:09
3RD & 4
OWN 44
-14
4.1%
Tyler Vander Waal sacked by Curtis Weaver for a loss of 14 yards to the Wyom 30 WYOMING Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 2:09
4TH & 18
OWN 30
0
3.8%
Tim Zaleski punt for 40 yds , Khalil Shakir returns for no gain to the BoiSt 30 BOISE ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the BoiSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 1:0598% → 98%
WYODrive 19PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 13:33
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+5
2.2%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Raghib Ismail Jr. for 5 yds to the Wyom 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 12:40
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+1
1.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 1 yd to the BoiSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 21DOWNS7 plays · 31 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 10:45
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+26
1.9%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Raghib Ismail Jr. for 26 yds to the Wyom 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-11
2.1%
Tyler Vander Waal sacked by Tyson Maeva for a loss of 11 yards to the Wyom 38Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 21
OWN 38
0
1.9%
Tyler Vander Waal pass incomplete to Austin Conway, broken up by Kekaula KanihoSimilar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 21
OWN 38
+13
1.9%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Austin Conway for 13 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22TD4 plays · 51 yds · 1:4499% → 100%
Q4 6:29
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+41
0.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to John Hightower for 41 yds for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 23TD3 plays · 75 yds · 0:420% → 1%
BOISDrive 24END OF GAME14 plays · 53 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 5:47
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+10
1.1%
RYPIEN, Brett pass incomplete to BUTLER, Akilian, PENALTY WY holding 10 yards to the BSU32, 1ST DOWN BSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 12
OWN 30
-10
1.1%
MAHONE, Robert rush for no gain to the BSU30 (HALL, Josiah;WINGARD, Andrew), PENALTY BSU holding 10 yards to the BSU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 22
OWN 20
+15
1.1%
WYOMING Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the BoiSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+9
1.0%
Robert Mahone run for 9 yds to the Wyom 49 Robert Mahone fumbled, forced by Alijah Halliburton, recovered by BoiSt Andres Preciado for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:49
Nico Evans run for 75 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK)
+4.6
TD · Q2 5:42
Khalil Shakir run for 2 yds for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK)
-3.8
TD · Q2 11:02
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 21 yds for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK)
-3.6