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NEV

Nevada 28 at Air Force 25

AF
2018 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2018 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDSAFETYEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:15 · Ramiz Ahmed 51 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 140Home team on offense−23.4Garbage-time factor−10.3Score differential−10.7Pregame prior+0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:52: Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 29 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK) — NEV win probability +10.6 pts (now 57%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:27: Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 30 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK) — NEV win probability +10.0 pts (now 73%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:32: Ty Gangi pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 23 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK) — NEV win probability +16.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:36: Donald Hammond III pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK) NEVADA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined — AF win probability +9.1 pts (now 30%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:48: Donald Hammond III run for 9 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — AF win probability +15.4 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 9 of 10NEV made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00NEV 4th & 1 at AF 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    39.0%−0.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    39.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:08AF 4th & 1 at AF 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    58.5%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:08AF 4th & 3 at AF 49, down 7
    Close callPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:05NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:12AF 4th & 9 at AF 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:33NEV 4th & 11 at NEV 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00AF 4th & 25 at AF 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−2.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:54NEV 4th & 5 at NEV 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:52AF 4th & 4 at AF 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:10NEV 4th & 6 at NEV 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:23AF 4th & 14 at AF 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−4.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:13AF 4th & 12 at NEV 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−1.6
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    23.9%−5.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:43AF 4th & 1 at NEV 7, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    18.7%−3.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−12.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:15NEV 4th & 11 at AF 33, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.9%
    49% to make
    Punt
    80.8%−1.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:15AF 4th & 4 at NEV 49, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.9%−1.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:59NEV 4th & 6 at AF 40, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    81.6%−1.9
    34% to make
    Punt
    81.1%−2.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:30AF 4th & 8 at NEV 11, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.5%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    19.4%−0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−9.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 2 of 3NEV made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:15NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:58AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:52NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:27NEV Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:32NEV Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:36AF Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:48AF Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    29.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    29.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4545% → 47%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
55.2%
Kelton Moore run for 2 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
55.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 10 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
55.2%
Kelton Moore run for 3 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+3
55.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 3 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+4
55.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kelton Moore for 4 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
55.2%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 42Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+1
55.2%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 43
+12
55.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 12 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+1
55.2%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the AFA 44Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+4
55.2%
Ty Gangi run for 4 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
53.3%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 40 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 1:0754% → 54%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
53.9%
Kadin Remsberg run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
54.0%
Kadin Remsberg run for 4 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
54.0%
Cole Fagan run for 1 yd to the AFA 34Similar
Q1 9:08
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+8
53.6%
Kadin Remsberg run for 8 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
54.1%
Ronald Cleveland run for 6 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 4
OWN 48
-2
54.3%
Joseph Saucier run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 46Similar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+3
54.0%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q1 9:08
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
54.0%
Charlie Scott punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
52.8%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 15Similar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 15
OWN 15
-5
52.8%
Jaxson Kincaide run for a loss of 5 yards to the Nevad 10Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 20
OWN 10
+1
52.9%
Kelton Moore run for 1 yd to the Nevad 11Similar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 19
OWN 11
+9
53.0%
Kelton Moore run for 9 yds to the Nevad 20Similar
Q1 7:05
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
53.2%
Quinton Conaway punt for 34 yds, downed at the AFA 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
53.2%
Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+3
53.3%
Cole Fagan run for 3 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q1 5:12
3RD & 5
OPP 49
-4
53.3%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for a loss of 4 yards to the AIRFORCE 47 AIR FORCE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 5:12
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
52.5%
Charlie Scott punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
51.8%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+2
51.9%
Kelton Moore run for 2 yds to the Nevad 17Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+13
52.1%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 13 yds to the Nevad 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
51.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Toa Taua for 4 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-5
51.2%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 29Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 11
OWN 29
0
51.7%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Romeo Doubs, broken up by Zane LewisSimilar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 11
OWN 29
0
52.0%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Toa Taua, broken up by Danny HighlandSimilar
Q1 3:33
4TH & 11
OWN 29
0
52.4%
Quinton Conaway punt for 43 yds , Ronald Cleveland returns for no gain to the AFA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · -4 yds · 1:1551% → 50%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
51.2%
Kadin Remsberg run for 6 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+3
51.7%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q1 1:15
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+2
51.6%
Cole Fagan run for 2 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-4
51.2%
Ronald Cleveland run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 35
-10
50.5%
Arion Worthman sacked by Korey Rush for a loss of 10 yards to the AFA 25 AIR FORCE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 24
OWN 25
-5
49.9%
AIR FORCE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the AFA 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 29
OWN 20
+4
49.9%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 25
OWN 24
0
49.6%
Charlie Scott punt for 37 yds, downed at the Nevad 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
47.9%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
48.1%
Kelton Moore run for 4 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+1
48.0%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 44Similar
Q2 12:54
4TH & 5
OWN 44
+17
48.8%
Quinton Conaway punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 23 , Ronald Cleveland returns for 17 yds to the AFA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8FUMBLE
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
49.8%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 18Similar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+2
49.6%
Cole Fagan run for 2 yds to the AFA 20Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 13
OWN 20
0
49.6%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Ronald Cleveland, broken up by Tyson WilliamsSimilar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 13
OWN 20
+14
49.1%
Arion Worthman sacked by Malik Reed for a loss of 7 yards to the AFA 1 Arion Worthman fumbled, recovered by Nevad Lucas Weber , return for 0 yards , return for 14 yds to the AFA 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9INT TD
3 plays · -20 yds · 1:1754% → 47%
Q2 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
46.4%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 6Similar
Q2 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-15
46.3%
MOORE, Kelton rush for loss of 1 yard to the AF7 (CAPRA, Micah), PENALTY NEVADA personal foul (ROBERSON, R.) 15 yards to the AF21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 21
+99
53.3%
Ty Gangi pass intercepted for a TD Zane Lewis return for 99 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:0144% → 57%
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
56.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Kaleb Fossum, broken up by Ben HarrisSimilar
Q2 9:53
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
56.3%
Ty Gangi run for 9 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q2 9:53
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+10
56.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 10 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
55.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Toa Taua for 3 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q2 9:53
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+25
54.4%
Toa Taua run for 25 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
53.2%
Devonte Lee run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+29
42.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 29 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
47.0%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
47.3%
Cole Fagan run for 1 yd to the AFA 30Similar
Q2 6:52
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+1
46.8%
Ronald Cleveland run for 1 yd to the AFA 31Similar
Q2 6:52
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
46.5%
Charlie Scott punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Kaleb Fossum at the Nevad 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+16
46.2%
McLane Mannix run for 16 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
44.2%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+7
44.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 7 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+2
44.0%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q2 5:10
4TH & 1
OWN 48
-5
44.9%
NEVADA Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 43Similar
Q2 5:10
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
45.7%
Quinton Conaway punt for 47 yds , Ronald Cleveland returns for no gain to the AFA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:3145% → 41%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
45.0%
Joseph Saucier run for 2 yds to the AFA 12Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 8
OWN 12
-1
45.0%
Arion Worthman run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 11 AIR FORCE Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 9
OWN 11
-5
44.1%
Arion Worthman run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 6Similar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 14
OWN 6
+34
41.4%
Charlie Scott punt for 49 yds, downed at the AIRFORCE 45 AIR FORCE Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the AFA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14TD
4 plays · 40 yds · 0:4363% → 73%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
36.6%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
37.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 4 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+6
37.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kelton Moore for 6 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
27.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 30 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
31.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16FG
12 plays · 49 yds · 3:4730% → 32%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
29.9%
Ronald Cleveland run for 11 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
30.8%
CLEVELAND, Rona rush for 13 yards to the AF49 (RUFUS, Asauni;REED, Malik), PENALTY AF holding (WAGUESPACK, Kad) 10 yards to the AF26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 26
-2
29.8%
Joseph Saucier run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 24
+29
29.7%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Andrew Smith for 29 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
32.4%
Cole Fagan run for 2 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+21
32.3%
Ronald Cleveland run for 21 yds to the Nevad 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
33.0%
AIR FORCE Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 29Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+3
32.9%
Joseph Saucier run for 3 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 26
0
33.0%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Kade WaguespackSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 26
0
32.0%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Joseph SaucierSimilar
Q3 11:13
4TH & 12
OPP 26
+43
32.4%
Jake Koehnke 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4168% → 86%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
32.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 13 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
31.2%
Kelton Moore run for 6 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+29
31.0%
Ty Gangi run for 29 yds to the AFA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
30.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 4 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+23
14.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 23 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18FUMBLE
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
18.5%
Kadin Remsberg run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
18.5%
Arion Worthman run for no gain to the AFA 28 Arion Worthman fumbled, forced by Malik Reed, recovered by Nevad Malik ReedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19FUMBLE
2 plays · -14 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-15
14.3%
NEVADA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Adam Lopez) to the AFA 43Similar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
14.8%
Ty Gangi run for 1 yd to the AFA 42 Ty Gangi fumbled, recovered by AFA Brody BagnallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20TD
12 plays · 58 yds · 5:0719% → 30%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
19.4%
Kadin Remsberg run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 2
50
+4
19.9%
Kadin Remsberg run for 4 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
20.0%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Andrew SmithSimilar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-4
19.7%
Donald Hammond III run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 14
50
+19
18.3%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 19 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
20.4%
Donald Hammond III run for 15 yds to the Nevad 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-3
20.6%
Ronald Cleveland run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 19Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 13
OPP 19
+8
20.1%
Kadin Remsberg run for 8 yds to the Nevad 11Similar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+4
20.2%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Kade Waguespack for 4 yds to the Nevad 7Similar
Q3 8:43
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+6
20.3%
Ronald Cleveland run for 6 yds to the Nevad 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
21.2%
Cole Fagan run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 2Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
30.3%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK) NEVADA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21MISSED FG
15 plays · 49 yds · 7:1774% → 84%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
25.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 9 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+4
25.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kelton Moore for 4 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-15
25.4%
GANGI, Ty pass incomplete to FOSSUM, Kaleb, dropped pass, PENALTY NEVADA personal foul (4) 15 yards to the NEVADA16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 25
OWN 16
+2
26.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 2 yds to the Nevad 18Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 23
OWN 18
+21
26.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 21 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q3 3:32
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+5
24.4%
Toa Taua run for 5 yds to the Nevad 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
23.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Toa Taua for 4 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+2
19.6%
Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
50
+6
19.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 6 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
19.4%
Kelton Moore run for 12 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
19.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 34
+1
19.1%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the AFA 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 33
0
19.5%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the AFA 33Similar
Q4 11:15
4TH & 11
OPP 33
+51
16.4%
Ramiz Ahmed 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22TD
12 plays · 67 yds · 4:2719% → 39%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
19.0%
Kadin Remsberg run for 7 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+5
20.5%
Kadin Remsberg run for 5 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
20.3%
Donald Hammond III run for 1 yd to the AFA 46Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 9
OWN 46
-4
19.9%
Donald Hammond III run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 42Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 13
OWN 42
+9
17.9%
Donald Hammond III run for 9 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q4 11:15
4TH & 4
OPP 49
+6
18.7%
Kadin Remsberg run for 6 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
21.8%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Kade WaguespackSimilar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+8
21.1%
Kadin Remsberg run for 8 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+15
22.2%
NEVADA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Justin Brent) to the Nevad 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
23.6%
Ronald Cleveland run for 10 yds to the Nevad 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
23.6%
Nolan Eriksen run for 1 yd to the Nevad 9Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
39.1%
Donald Hammond III run for 9 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23DOWNS
11 plays · 35 yds · 3:4975% → 84%
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
24.8%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
24.3%
Ty Gangi run for no gain to the Nevad 28Similar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+28
26.0%
Toa Taua run for 28 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
21.3%
Kelton Moore run for 5 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+4
20.9%
Kelton Moore run for 4 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 1
OPP 35
0
21.1%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the AFA 35Similar
Q4 2:59
4TH & 1
OPP 35
-5
15.9%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 40Similar
Q4 2:59
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
16.5%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Jaxson KincaideSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 24DOWNS
10 plays · 49 yds · 1:2530% → 23%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
30.2%
Kadin Remsberg run for 1 yd to the AFA 41Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
28.5%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Kadin RemsbergSimilar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+12
27.4%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 12 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+19
32.4%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 19 yds to the Nevad 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
37.5%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Jake Matkovich for 15 yds to the Nevad 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
37.5%
Donald Hammond III run for 2 yds to the Nevad 11Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
31.3%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Marcus Bennett, broken up by Daniel BrownSimilar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
28.3%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Kadin RemsbergSimilar
Q4 1:30
4TH & 8
OPP 11
0
22.6%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Kade WaguespackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 25SF
9 plays · -11 yds · 0:5993% → 92%
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
7.2%
Kelton Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 10Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 11
OWN 10
+1
7.1%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 11Similar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 10
OWN 11
-5
7.7%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 6Similar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 15
OWN 6
-3
7.8%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (-3 Yards) to the Nevad 3Similar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 18
OWN 3
+8
7.8%
Toa Taua run for 8 yds to the Nevad 11Similar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 10
OWN 11
-5
8.1%
NEVADA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 6Similar
Q4 0:17
4TH & 15
OWN 6
-6
8.2%
Nephi Sewell run for a loss of 6 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
19.3%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Marcus Bennett, broken up by Dameon BaberSimilar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
18.1%
Donald Hammond III pass incomplete to Ronald ClevelandSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-18.1
TD · Q3 9:32
Ty Gangi pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 23 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK)
-16.1
TD · Q4 6:48
Donald Hammond III run for 9 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+15.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com