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ILST

Illinois State 35 at Colorado State 19

CSU
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · Canvas Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadILST aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreILST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:56 · JT Bohlken punt for 45 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+52.5+26.30−26.3−52.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 19Home team on offense−0.7Pregame prior+14.9Score differential−0.5Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:42: James Robinson run for 2 yds for a TD (Sam Fenlason KICK) — ILST win probability +6.5 pts (now 41%) (top driver: ILST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:02: Markel Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Sam Fenlason KICK) — ILST win probability +11.7 pts (now 61%) (top driver: ILST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:35: Brady Davis pass complete to Tylor Petkovich for 12 yds for a TD (Sam Fenlason KICK) — ILST win probability +14.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ILST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:00: K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Nikko Hall for 17 yds for a TD (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +11.6 pts (now 40%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:25: Brady Davis pass complete to Markel Smith for 60 yds for a TD (Sam Fenlason KICK) — ILST win probability +17.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ILST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9ILST made the numbers' call on 4 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00CSU 4th & 9 at ILST 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    62.0%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:56ILST 4th & 3 at CSU 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    38.3%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:48CSU 4th & 2 at ILST 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    61.8%−0.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    61.7%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00ILST 4th & 6 at midfield, down 6
    Close callPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:15CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 23, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:38CSU 4th & 15 at CSU 20, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:17ILST 4th & 9 at CSU 32, up 1
    Close callWent for it · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.4%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    41.6%
    51% to make
    Punt
    41.0%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:43CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 32, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−2.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:09ILST 4th & 5 at CSU 35, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    44.2%−0.6
    45% to make
    Punt
    43.0%−1.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:31ILST 4th & 1 at CSU 3, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.8%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    45.0%−1.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    38.3%−8.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:14ILST 4th & 5 at ILST 31, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%−1.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:00ILST 4th & 6 at ILST 29, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:27CSU 4th & 5 at ILST 41, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    29.7%−2.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    30.6%−1.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00ILST 4th & 3 at ILST 49, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%−1.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:50CSU 4th & 11 at CSU 34, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−3.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:19CSU 4th & 4 at ILST 15, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.6%−0.2
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    9.8%
    83% to make
    Punt
    3.6%−6.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:48ILST 4th & 3 at ILST 33, up 15
    Close callPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:54CSU 4th & 16 at CSU 2, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:31ILST 4th & 1 at ILST 37, up 14
    Close callPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ILST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 2:21CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:42ILST Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:02ILST Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:35ILST Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:00CSU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:25ILST Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:48ILST Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:36CSU Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    2.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
66.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
66.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 8 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
66.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 9 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
-3
66.9%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+12
66.9%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 12 yds to the IllSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
66.9%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 1 yard to the IllSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+2
66.9%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 2 yds to the IllSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 46
0
66.9%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
66.9%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 39 yds, downed at the IllSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 48 yds · 3:0234% → 34%
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
66.5%
Brady Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+8
66.5%
James Robinson run for 8 yds to the IllSt 15Similar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+18
66.6%
Brady Davis pass complete to Spencer Schnell for 18 yds to the IllSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
66.3%
James Robinson run for 15 yds to the IllSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
66.1%
Brady Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
66.1%
Markel Smith run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 8
50
+5
66.2%
Brady Davis pass complete to Andrew Edgar for 5 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q1 7:56
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
65.6%
JT Bohlken punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 5:2766% → 70%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
66.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 4 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+8
66.0%
Izzy Matthews run for 8 yds to the ColSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
66.1%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 13 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
66.7%
K.J. Carta-Samuels run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 5
50
+3
66.7%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the IllSt 47Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+3
66.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 3 yds to the IllSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
66.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
66.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels run for 3 yds to the IllSt 41Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+5
66.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels run for 5 yds to the IllSt 36Similar
Q1 7:48
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+4
66.3%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 4 yds to the IllSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
67.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Olabisi Johnson, broken up by Devin TaylorSimilar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+7
66.9%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Nikko Hall for 7 yds to the IllSt 25Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+16
66.7%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for 6 yds to the IllSt 19 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS ST Penalty, personal foul (Devin Taylor) to the IllSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
69.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 9 yds for a TD (Wyatt Bryan PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:1733% → 32%
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
67.4%
Markel Smith run for 3 yds to the IllSt 35Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+1
67.3%
James Robinson run for 1 yd to the IllSt 36Similar
Q1 2:17
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+10
67.7%
Brady Davis pass complete to Spencer Schnell for 10 yds to the IllSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
66.7%
Markel Smith run for 2 yds to the IllSt 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+2
66.7%
Markel Smith run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
50
0
66.6%
Brady Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
50
0
67.8%
JT Bohlken punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0069% → 68%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
69.0%
Marcus McElroy run for 4 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-1
69.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to EJ Scott for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 23Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
68.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to EJ Scott, broken up by Willie EdwardsSimilar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+7
67.9%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 54 yds , Spencer Schnell returns for 7 yds to the IllSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 6TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:0232% → 41%
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
67.7%
James Robinson run for 8 yds to the IllSt 38Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+11
66.6%
Brady Davis pass complete to James Robinson for 11 yds to the IllSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+20
66.4%
James Robinson run for 20 yds to the ColSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+29
65.5%
Brady Davis pass complete to Andrew Edgar for 29 yds Andrew Edgar fumbled, forced by Jamal Hicks, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
65.3%
Brady Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
58.8%
James Robinson run for 2 yds for a TD (Sam Fenlason KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0063% → 61%
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
62.6%
HILL, C. pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, P. (Edwards,Willie), PENALTY ILS pass interference (Edwards,Willie) 6 yards to the CSU25, 1ST DOWN CSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
62.7%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
62.8%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Marvin Kinsey Jr.Similar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-9
62.1%
Collin Hill sacked by Romeo McKnight for a loss of 9 yards to the ColSt 20Similar
Q2 10:38
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
61.2%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IllSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 8DOWNS
10 plays · 46 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
61.0%
Jordan Birch run for 7 yds to the IllSt 29Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+14
60.0%
Markel Smith run for 14 yds to the IllSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
59.4%
Davis,Brady rush for no gain to the ILS43, fumble forced by TEAM, fumble by Davis,Brady recovered by ILS TEAM at ILS43, PENALTY ILS false start (Taula,Tanner) 5 yards to the ILS38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+18
60.5%
Brady Davis pass complete to Andrew Edgar for 18 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
58.9%
James Robinson run for 11 yds to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
58.2%
Brady Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
58.3%
Brady Davis pass incomplete to Spencer SchnellSimilar
Q2 9:17
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+6
59.2%
Markel Smith run for 6 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q2 9:17
4TH & 4
OPP 27
-5
60.3%
ILLINOIS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 32Similar
Q2 9:17
4TH & 9
OPP 32
0
60.6%
Brady Davis pass incomplete to Spencer SchnellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0061% → 59%
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
61.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston Williams, broken up by Devin TaylorSimilar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
60.7%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Olabisi JohnsonSimilar
Q2 5:43
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
59.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q2 5:43
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
59.2%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 68 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 10TD
21 plays · 80 yds · 5:1641% → 61%
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
58.7%
James Robinson run for 5 yds to the IllSt 25Similar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
56.6%
Brady Davis pass complete to Andrew Edgar for 16 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
56.0%
Brady Davis pass incomplete to Braxton Haley, broken up by V.J. BanksSimilar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
56.2%
James Robinson run for 5 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+5
57.8%
Davis,Brady rush for 4 yards to the ILS29 (SMITH, C.), PENALTY CSU offside (BOMBEK, J.) 5 yards to the ILS30, 1ST DOWN ILS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
58.0%
Brady Davis pass complete to Braxton Haley for 8 yds to the IllSt 38Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+6
56.6%
James Robinson run for 6 yds to the IllSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
54.3%
Brady Davis pass incomplete to Braxton HaleySimilar
Q2 2:09
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+10
56.2%
Brady Davis pass complete to Spencer Schnell for 10 yds to the ColSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
52.7%
Brady Davis pass incomplete to Andrew EdgarSimilar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+13
53.2%
Markel Smith run for 13 yds to the ColSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
52.7%
Markel Smith run for 5 yds to the ColSt 7Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 5
OPP 7
-10
51.5%
Smith,Markel rush for 7 yards to the CSU0, clock 00:52, PENALTY ILS holding (Megginson,Gabe) 10 yards to the CSU17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 15
OPP 17
0
52.7%
Brady Davis pass incomplete to Andrew Edgar, broken up by Devin PhillipsSimilar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 15
OPP 17
+14
54.7%
Brady Davis pass complete to Spencer Schnell for 14 yds to the ColSt 3Similar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+2
54.3%
Markel Smith run for 2 yds to the ColSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
51.4%
Markel Smith run for no gain to the ColSt 1Similar
Q2 0:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
39.0%
Markel Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Sam Fenlason KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 12TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2557% → 74%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
43.0%
James Robinson run for 13 yds to the IllSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
41.4%
Markel Smith run for 10 yds to the IllSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
41.1%
James Robinson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
50
+43
40.7%
Brady Davis pass complete to Andrew Edgar for 43 yds to the ColSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
40.3%
ILLINOIS ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 12Similar
Q3 12:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
26.1%
Brady Davis pass complete to Tylor Petkovich for 12 yds for a TD (Sam Fenlason KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13INT
9 plays · 36 yds · 0:0032% → 35%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.7%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston Williams, broken up by Willie EdwardsSimilar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
31.5%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Ben Knox) to the ColSt 20Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+12
31.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Cameron Butler for 12 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q3 12:35
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
32.5%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 6 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
33.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 13 yds to the IllSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
34.5%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the IllSt 46Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+7
34.5%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 7 yds to the IllSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
34.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass intercepted Devin Taylor return for no gain to the IllSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
24.5%
Jordan Birch run for no gain to the IllSt 6Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+3
24.6%
Jordan Birch run for 3 yds to the IllSt 9Similar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 7
OWN 9
+17
25.1%
Brady Davis pass complete to Spencer Schnell for 17 yds to the IllSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
24.2%
James Robinson run for 3 yds to the IllSt 29Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+2
24.1%
James Robinson run for 2 yds to the IllSt 31Similar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
24.5%
Brady Davis pass incomplete to Braxton Haley, broken up by Malcolm MageeSimilar
Q3 10:14
4TH & 5
OWN 31
+18
25.0%
JT Bohlken punt for 47 yds , Olabisi Johnson returns for 18 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 3:0226% → 40%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
26.1%
Izzy Matthews run for 8 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+6
27.3%
Izzy Matthews run for 6 yds to the IllSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
27.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 5 yds to the IllSt 41Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+4
27.7%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 4 yds to the IllSt 37Similar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+3
27.6%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the IllSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
27.9%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 2 yds to the IllSt 32Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+15
27.9%
CARTA-SAMUELS pass incomplete to JOHNSON, O. (Taylor,Devin), PENALTY ILS pass interference (Taylor,Devin) 15 yards to the ILS17, 1ST DOWN CSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
39.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Nikko Hall for 17 yds for a TD (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0068% → 66%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.7%
Brady Davis pass incomplete to Braxton HaleySimilar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
32.3%
Markel Smith run for 4 yds to the IllSt 29Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
32.1%
Brady Davis pass incomplete to Markel Smith, broken up by Dajon OwensSimilar
Q3 4:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+54
34.0%
JT Bohlken punt for 54 yds , Olabisi Johnson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17DOWNS
6 plays · 43 yds · 1:2932% → 31%
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+38
31.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 38 yds to the IllSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
36.5%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Nikko HallSimilar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
36.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+5
33.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 5 yds to the IllSt 41Similar
Q3 1:27
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
30.7%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Olabisi JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2275% → 74%
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
25.5%
James Robinson run for 7 yds to the IllSt 49Similar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+1
25.1%
James Robinson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:22
3RD & 2
50
-1
25.5%
James Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the IllSt 49Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
26.1%
JT Bohlken punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
27.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Cameron Butler for 3 yds to the ColSt 23Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
27.9%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 5 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+7
27.7%
Izzy Matthews run for 7 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
28.8%
HILL, C. pass complete to BUTLER, C. for 16 yards to the ILS49 (Edwards,Willie), PENALTY CSU personal foul (WESLEY, B.) 15 yards to the CSU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 25
OWN 20
+6
27.7%
Collin Hill pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 6 yds to the ColSt 26Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 19
OWN 26
+5
27.5%
Collin Hill pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 5 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 14
OWN 31
-5
26.3%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Cameron Butler) to the ColSt 26Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 19
OWN 26
+8
26.2%
Collin Hill run for 8 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 11
OWN 34
+19
25.8%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 41 yds , Spencer Schnell returns for 19 yds to the COLOST 47 COLORADO ST Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the IllSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 20TD
4 plays · 51 yds · 5:2576% → 93%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
23.8%
Brady Davis pass incomplete to Braxton Haley, broken up by Rashad AjayiSimilar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
23.9%
Markel Smith run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 9
50
-10
24.0%
Davis,Brady pass complete to Robinson,James for 12 yards to the CSU38 (BRINNON, Q.), PENALTY ILS holding (O'Day,Donavin) 10 yards to the ILS40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 19
OWN 40
+60
6.9%
Brady Davis pass complete to Markel Smith for 60 yds for a TD (Sam Fenlason KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21DOWNS
9 plays · 59 yds · 0:008% → 9%
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
7.9%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 14 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+25
8.4%
Collin Hill pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 25 yds to the IllSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
9.5%
Collin Hill pass complete to Nikko Hall for 9 yds to the IllSt 26Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+5
9.8%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 5 yds to the IllSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
9.8%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+4
9.7%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 4 yds to the IllSt 17Similar
Q4 9:19
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+2
9.6%
Collin Hill run for 2 yds to the IllSt 15Similar
Q4 9:19
4TH & 4
OPP 15
0
9.3%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0094% → 95%
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
5.6%
James Robinson run for 11 yds to the IllSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
5.4%
James Robinson run for 3 yds to the IllSt 29Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+4
5.4%
James Robinson run for 4 yds to the IllSt 33Similar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 3
OWN 33
0
5.5%
Brady Davis run for no gain to the IllSt 33Similar
Q4 6:48
4TH & 3
OWN 33
+3
5.4%
JT Bohlken punt for 53 yds , Olabisi Johnson returns for 3 yds to the ColSt 36 COLORADO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (9 Yards) to the ColSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:004% → 3%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
3.5%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 10
OWN 8
-6
3.4%
Collin Hill sacked by Jordan Birch for a loss of 6 yards to the ColSt 2Similar
Q4 3:54
3RD & 16
OWN 2
0
3.4%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Warren Jackson, broken up by Mitchell BreesSimilar
Q4 3:54
4TH & 16
OWN 2
0
3.4%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Spencer Schnell at the IllSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 24TD
1 play · 57 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
0.6%
James Robinson run for 57 yds for a TD (Sam Fenlason KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 25TD
7 plays · 40 yds · 1:011% → 3%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
1.1%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Preston Williams, broken up by Matt SwaineSimilar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+10
1.1%
Collin Hill pass complete to Cameron Butler for 10 yds to the IllSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
1.2%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Cameron Butler, broken up by Christian UphoffSimilar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+21
1.2%
Collin Hill pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for 21 yds to the IllSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
1.2%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Barry Wesley) to the IllSt 14Similar
Q4 1:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
3.2%
Collin Hill pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for 14 yds for a TD Timeout ILLINOIS ST, clock 01:36 (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 26INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
2.7%
Collin Hill pass intercepted Christian Uphoff return for no gain to the IllSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:5898% → 99%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
1.7%
James Robinson run for 1 yd to the IllSt 29Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+6
1.7%
Nick Kielbasa run for 6 yds to the IllSt 35Similar
Q4 1:16
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+2
1.7%
Nick Kielbasa run for 2 yds to the IllSt 37Similar
Q4 0:31
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
1.0%
JT Bohlken punt for 60 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · 33 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+11
1.1%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 11 yds to the ColSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+22
1.1%
Collin Hill pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for 22 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:25
Brady Davis pass complete to Markel Smith for 60 yds for a TD (Sam Fenlason KICK)
-17.2
TD · Q3 12:35
Brady Davis pass complete to Tylor Petkovich for 12 yds for a TD (Sam Fenlason KICK)
-14.2
TD · Q2 0:02
Markel Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Sam Fenlason KICK)
-11.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com