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AF

Air Force 32 at Utah State 42

USU
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · Maverik Stadium
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Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:40 · Isaiah Sanders pass incomplete to Ronald Cleveland
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 206Pregame prior+0.7Home team on offense+27.0Score differential+7.4Garbage-time factor+7.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:13: Cole Fagan run for 8 yds for a TD, (Matthew Philichi KICK) — AF win probability +12.3 pts (now 44%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:18: Gerold Bright 4 Yd Run (Dominik Eberle Kick) — USU win probability +9.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:02: Aaren Vaughns 43 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Dominik Eberle Kick) — USU win probability +10.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:13: Kadin Remsberg run for 9 yds for a TD (Donald Hammond III pass to Kade Waguespack for Two-Point Conversion) — AF win probability +12.8 pts (now 18%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:52: Gerold Bright run for 70 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +18.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6AF made the numbers' call on 10 of 14
  1. Q1 12:26USU 4th & 2 at AF 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    75.1%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:19AF 4th & 1 at AF 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:18AF 4th & 3 at USU 42, down 7
    Close callPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    24.1%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:42USU 4th & 7 at AF 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:44USU 4th & 10 at USU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:25AF 4th & 1 at AF 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    29.0%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:18AF 4th & 15 at AF 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−2.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:28AF 4th & 7 at USU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    31.4%−4.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00AF 4th & 1 at AF 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.6%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00AF 4th & 15 at AF 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−1.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:48AF 4th & 7 at USU 14, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−2.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:48USU 4th & 12 at USU 23, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−1.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:28AF 4th & 1 at AF 47, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.5%−1.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:00USU 4th & 4 at USU 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−1.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:15AF 4th & 6 at USU 45, down 3
    Close callPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    27.7%−2.8
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%−0.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:52AF 4th & 2 at AF 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.7%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:52AF 4th & 2 at USU 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    8.1%−1.5
    30% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−1.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:52AF 4th & 1 at USU 16, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    9.6%−1.4
    81% to make
    Punt
    5.5%−5.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:55USU 4th & 5 at USU 21, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:40AF 4th & 5 at AF 17, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6AF made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 9:18USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:48AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:13AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:18USU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:02USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:04USU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:15USU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:13AF Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    9.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    9.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:52USU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USUDrive 1PUNT
12 plays · 36 yds · 2:3476% → 75%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
75.8%
Gerold Bright run for 5 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
75.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 6 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
75.8%
Gerold Bright run for 1 yd to the UthSt 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+8
75.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 8 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+8
75.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 8 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
75.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 9 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 1
OPP 38
0
75.6%
Gerold Bright run for no gain to the AFA 38Similar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 1
OPP 38
-1
75.6%
Jordan Love run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 39Similar
Q1 12:26
4TH & 2
OPP 39
0
75.3%
Taylor Hintze punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
75.3%
Cole Fagan run for 3 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
75.3%
Cole Fagan run for 2 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q1 12:19
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+4
75.4%
Isaiah Sanders run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q1 12:19
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
75.4%
Charlie Scott punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 1:3475% → 77%
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
75.0%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Ron'quavion TarverSimilar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
75.0%
Darwin Thompson run for 1 yd to the UthSt 39Similar
Q1 10:52
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+11
74.9%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jalen Greene for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
50
+16
75.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Dax Raymond for 16 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
75.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jalen Greene for 15 yds to the AFA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+13
75.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Dax Raymond for 13 yds to the AFA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
77.0%
Darwin Thompson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
76.3%
Ronald Cleveland run for 15 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
76.0%
Isaiah Sanders run for 4 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+5
75.9%
Kadin Remsberg run for 5 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
75.9%
Cole Fagan run for 2 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
75.8%
Isaiah Sanders run for 2 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+5
75.9%
Nolan Eriksen run for 5 yds to the UthSt 42Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 3
OPP 42
0
75.8%
Nolan Eriksen run for no gain to the UthSt 42Similar
Q1 9:18
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
76.0%
Charlie Scott punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 45 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
76.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 5 yds to the UthSt 12Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 5
OWN 12
+6
76.3%
Gerold Bright run for 6 yds to the UthSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
76.3%
Gerold Bright run for 6 yds to the UthSt 24Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+11
76.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 11 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
76.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 4 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+10
76.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Taylor Compton for 10 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
76.9%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
76.8%
Gerold Bright run for 3 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
76.7%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:42
4TH & 7
OPP 48
+30
76.3%
Taylor Hintze punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 13 UTAH ST Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the AFA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6TD
11 plays · 82 yds · 3:5724% → 31%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
75.9%
Cole Fagan run for 12 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+29
75.7%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 29 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
74.8%
Kadin Remsberg run for 10 yds to the UthSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
74.3%
Isaiah Sanders run for 6 yds to the UthSt 25Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+3
74.2%
Cole Fagan run for 3 yds to the UthSt 22Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+2
74.7%
Isaiah Sanders run for 2 yds to the UthSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
74.2%
Ronald Cleveland run for 6 yds to the UthSt 14Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+4
74.2%
Kadin Remsberg run for 4 yds to the UthSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
73.6%
Kadin Remsberg run for 7 yds to the UthSt 3Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
73.6%
Isaiah Sanders run for 2 yds to the UthSt 1Similar
Q2 13:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.9%
Isaiah Sanders run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Philichi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
71.6%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
71.5%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Dax RaymondSimilar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
70.8%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Ron'quavion Tarver, broken up by Milton Bugg IIISimilar
Q2 13:44
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
70.5%
Taylor Hintze punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8TD
16 plays · 62 yds · 6:1230% → 44%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
69.7%
Isaiah Sanders pass incomplete to Ronald ClevelandSimilar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
69.8%
Isaiah Sanders run for 5 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+4
69.6%
Isaiah Sanders run for 4 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q2 13:25
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+2
69.9%
Isaiah Sanders run for 2 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
69.1%
Isaiah Sanders pass incomplete to Andrew Smith, broken up by DJ WilliamsSimilar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+13
69.4%
Nolan Eriksen run for 13 yds to the UthSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
68.8%
Christian Mallard run for no gain to the UthSt 38Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+9
68.9%
Nolan Eriksen run for 9 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+7
68.7%
Christian Mallard run for 7 yds to the UthSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-15
68.1%
SANDERS, Isaiah rush for loss of 1 yard to the USU23 (CHRISTIANSEN, C), PENALTY AF personal foul 15 yards to the USU37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 25
OPP 37
+2
69.3%
Cole Fagan run for 2 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 23
OPP 35
+17
69.0%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for 17 yds to the UthSt 18Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+10
68.7%
Ronald Cleveland run for 10 yds to the UthSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
68.1%
Kadin Remsberg run for 2 yds to the UthSt 6Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
68.1%
Kadin Remsberg run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 8Similar
Q2 7:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
55.9%
Cole Fagan run for 8 yds for a TD, (Matthew Philichi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 0:4460% → 72%
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
59.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 17 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
61.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jalen Greene for 11 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
61.9%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+5
61.7%
LOVE, JORDAN pass incomplete to COMPTON, TAYLOR, PENALTY AF offside 5 yards to the AF33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+29
62.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 29 yds to the AFA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
72.3%
Gerold Bright 4 Yd Run (Dominik Eberle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
66.6%
Kadin Remsberg run for 5 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
66.0%
Kadin Remsberg run for 1 yd to the AFA 31Similar
Q2 6:18
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
66.6%
Kadin Remsberg run for 5 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
65.8%
Kadin Remsberg run for no gain to the AFA 36Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-6
66.2%
Isaiah Sanders sacked by Devon Anderson for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 30Similar
Q2 6:18
3RD & 16
OWN 30
+1
67.7%
Cole Fagan run for 1 yd to the AFA 31Similar
Q2 6:18
4TH & 15
OWN 31
0
68.2%
Charlie Scott punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 11FUMBLE
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-3
68.5%
Jordan Love sacked by Lakota Wills for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 26 Jordan Love fumbled, recovered by AFA Garrett Kauppila , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12MISSED FG
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0839% → 37%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-10
60.6%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the UthSt 36Similar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 20
OPP 36
+2
62.6%
Isaiah Sanders run for 2 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 18
OPP 34
+11
62.2%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for 11 yds to the UthSt 23Similar
Q2 2:36
3RD & 7
OPP 23
0
62.1%
Isaiah Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:28
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+40
62.7%
Jake Koehnke 40 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Tipa Galeai Tipa Galeai return for no gain to the UthSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13TD
3 plays · 77 yds · 0:2668% → 79%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
67.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jalen Greene for 5 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+29
68.0%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 29 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
78.9%
Aaren Vaughns 43 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Dominik Eberle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14END OF HALF
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
76.4%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for 8 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-5
74.9%
REMSBERG, Kadin rush for 1 yard to the AF34 (FERGUSON, GAJE;BAKER, DALTON), PENALTY AF illegal shift 5 yards to the AF28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-1
76.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 5 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
77.0%
Cole Fagan run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
76.4%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 5 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
76.4%
Isaiah Sanders run for no gain to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
77.3%
Isaiah Sanders run for 1 yd to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
76.4%
Ronald Cleveland run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 30
0
77.2%
Isaiah Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+5
78.0%
Cole Fagan run for 5 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 35
-5
78.1%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 30Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 30
+1
78.5%
Charlie Scott punt for 48 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 1 yd to the UthSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 2:5178% → 89%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
78.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Aaren Vaughns for 1 yd to the UthSt 24Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
77.9%
Jordan Love run for no gain to the UthSt 24Similar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+16
77.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 16 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
79.7%
Darwin Thompson run for 9 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+7
80.1%
Jordan Love run for 7 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
80.2%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Ron'quavion TarverSimilar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+15
80.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 15 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
80.5%
Darwin Thompson run for 6 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+8
80.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 8 yds to the AFA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
80.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Carson Terrell for 14 yds to the AFA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.2%
Darwin Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17FUMBLE
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
87.3%
Cole Fagan run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
86.8%
Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the AFA 30 Arion Worthman fumbled, recovered by UthSt Gaje FergusonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18TD
1 play · 30 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
96.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Dax Raymond for 30 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19FG
15 plays · 61 yds · 5:204% → 6%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.7%
Arion Worthman run for 6 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
95.5%
Kadin Remsberg run for 9 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
95.5%
Ronald Cleveland run for 4 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-2
95.5%
Arion Worthman run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 42Similar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+8
95.6%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
50
+1
95.5%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the UthSt 49Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
95.5%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Ronald ClevelandSimilar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+15
95.6%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 15 yds to the UthSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
95.1%
Christian Mallard run for 3 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+14
94.9%
Kadin Remsberg run for 14 yds to the UthSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
94.9%
Kadin Remsberg run for no gain to the UthSt 17 Kadin Remsberg fumbled, recovered by AFA Kadin RemsbergSimilar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+1
95.0%
Nolan Eriksen run for 1 yd to the UthSt 16Similar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+2
95.5%
Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the UthSt 14Similar
Q3 2:48
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+31
93.8%
Jake Koehnke 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.1%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Savon ScarverSimilar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
95.1%
LOVE, JORDAN pass complete to NATHAN, JORDAN for 10 yards to the USU35 (KAUPPILA, Garre), PENALTY USU holding 10 yards to the USU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 20
OWN 15
-5
94.3%
UTAH ST Penalty, false start (Sean Taylor) to the UthSt 10Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 25
OWN 10
0
93.8%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jalen GreeneSimilar
Q3 2:48
3RD & 25
OWN 10
+13
93.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 13 yds to the UthSt 23Similar
Q3 2:48
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
94.6%
Taylor Hintze punt for 54 yds, downed at the AFA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 3:155% → 18%
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
94.6%
Arion Worthman run for 15 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
94.2%
Cole Fagan run for 6 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+2
94.3%
Cole Fagan run for 2 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q3 1:28
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+1
94.3%
Isaiah Sanders run for 1 yd to the AFA 47Similar
Q3 1:28
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+2
94.3%
Isaiah Sanders run for 2 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
94.9%
Isaiah Sanders run for 10 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+23
94.9%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 23 yds to the UthSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
94.2%
Isaiah Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 19
0
94.5%
Nolan Eriksen run for no gain to the UthSt 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 19
+10
94.8%
SANDERS, Isaiah pass incomplete, PENALTY USU holding 10 yards to the USU9, 1ST DOWN AF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
82.1%
Kadin Remsberg run for 9 yds for a TD (Donald Hammond III pass to Kade Waguespack for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0073% → 71%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.3%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Ron'quavion TarverSimilar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
72.9%
UTAH ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 20Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+11
72.6%
Darwin Thompson run for 11 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
72.5%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Ron'quavion TarverSimilar
Q4 13:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
71.4%
Taylor Hintze punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 24PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 0:0030% → 31%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
69.8%
Isaiah Sanders run for 5 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+3
68.2%
Cole Fagan run for 3 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+3
67.8%
Cole Fagan run for 3 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
67.9%
Ronald Cleveland run for 14 yds to the UTAHST 46 AIR FORCE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the AFA 44Similar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 6
OWN 44
+5
66.0%
Kadin Remsberg run for 5 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 1
OWN 49
0
65.0%
Arion Worthman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
65.9%
Christian Mallard run for 2 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
65.2%
Cole Fagan run for 2 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+5
65.3%
Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the UthSt 42Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 3
OPP 42
-3
65.8%
Arion Worthman run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 45Similar
Q4 12:15
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
69.3%
Charlie Scott punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 25TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:4174% → 91%
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
73.5%
Gerold Bright run for 1 yd to the UthSt 21Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+9
73.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Dax Raymond for 9 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
91.2%
Gerold Bright run for 70 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 26DOWNS
13 plays · 59 yds · 0:009% → 11%
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.2%
Ronald Cleveland run for no gain to the AFA 25Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.2%
Kadin Remsberg run for 5 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q4 6:52
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
90.6%
Isaiah Sanders run for 3 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q4 6:52
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+2
90.9%
Isaiah Sanders run for 2 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
90.2%
Kadin Remsberg run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 10
50
+5
88.8%
Isaiah Sanders run for 5 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q4 6:52
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+3
89.2%
Isaiah Sanders run for 3 yds to the UthSt 42Similar
Q4 6:52
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+17
90.0%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 17 yds to the UthSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
87.4%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for 7 yds to the UthSt 18Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 3
OPP 18
0
87.1%
Isaiah Sanders pass incomplete to Geraud Sanders, broken up by DJ WilliamsSimilar
Q4 6:52
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+2
88.3%
Isaiah Sanders run for 2 yds to the UthSt 16Similar
Q4 6:52
4TH & 1
OPP 16
0
89.1%
Isaiah Sanders run for no gain to the UthSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:1594% → 96%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
93.8%
Gerold Bright run for 2 yds to the UthSt 18Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
94.9%
Jordan Love run for no gain to the UthSt 18Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+3
95.7%
Gerold Bright run for 3 yds to the UthSt 21Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 5
OWN 21
0
95.5%
Taylor Hintze punt for 67 yds, downed at the AFA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 28DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
97.1%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 8 yds to the AFA 20Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 2
OWN 20
0
96.7%
Isaiah Sanders pass incomplete to Marcus BennettSimilar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 2
OWN 20
-3
97.2%
Isaiah Sanders sacked by Tipa Galeai and Adewale Adeoye for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 17Similar
Q4 1:40
4TH & 5
OWN 17
0
97.3%
Isaiah Sanders pass incomplete to Ronald ClevelandSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
96.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 19Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 12
OPP 19
-3
96.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:52
Gerold Bright run for 70 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)
+18
TD · Q4 13:13
Kadin Remsberg run for 9 yds for a TD (Donald Hammond III pass to Kade Waguespack for Two-Point Conversion)
-12.8
TD · Q2 7:13
Cole Fagan run for 8 yds for a TD, (Matthew Philichi KICK)
-12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com