2018 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2018 · Sam Boyd Stadium
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Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadPV aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scorePV score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:09 · Trazon Connley run for 14 yds to the PraVw 31 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:23: Armani Rogers pass complete to Drew Tejchman for 24 yds for a TD (Evan Pantels PAT MISSED) — PV win probability +0.6 pts (now 3%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:12: Armani Rogers run for 2 yds for a TD (Evan Pantels KICK) — PV win probability +0.9 pts (now 5%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:44: Jalen Morton pass complete to Zarrian Holcombe for 13 yds for a TD (Zach Elder KICK) — PV win probability +1.8 pts (now 16%) (top driver: PV has the ball).
- FG · Q4 5:04: Evan Pantels 32 yd FG GOOD — UNLV win probability +1.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:15: Armani Rogers run for 8 yds for a TD (Evan Pantels KICK) — UNLV win probability +0.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 9 of 10PV made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 15:00UNLV 4th & 2 at PV 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.0%57% to convertField goal96.9%−0.136% to makePunt96.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:01PV 4th & 10 at PV 40, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it3.4%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.5%average punt
- Q1 4:30PV 4th & 6 at UNLV 6, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.4% before the snapGo for it4.3%−<0.131% to convertField goalTheir call4.3%91% to makePunt3.9%−0.5average punt
- Q1 4:30UNLV 4th & 10 at UNLV 36, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.6% before the snapGo for it95.6%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.7%average punt
- Q1 1:29PV 4th & 7 at PV 28, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snapGo for it4.7%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.8%average punt
- Q2 15:00PV 4th & 12 at UNLV 39, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snapGo for it5.0%−<0.124% to convertField goal5.0%−<0.136% to makePuntTheir call5.1%average punt
- Q2 4:37UNLV 4th & 10 at UNLV 19, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snapGo for it92.1%−0.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.5%average punt
- Q2 2:33PV 4th & 8 at PV 38, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snapGo for it7.1%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.2%average punt
- Q3 15:00PV 4th & 10 at PV 38, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snapGo for it7.8%−0.529% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.2%average punt
- Q3 14:14UNLV 4th & 1 at PV 22, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call91.7%71% to convertField goal90.9%−0.872% to makePunt88.5%−3.2average punt
- Q3 8:38UNLV 4th & 4 at PV 6, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 91.1% before the snapGo for it91.0%40% to convertField goalTheir call90.8%−0.291% to makePunt87.5%−3.5average punt
- Q3 8:38PV 4th & 10 at UNLV 44, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snapGo for it9.9%−0.330% to convertField goal9.5%−0.827% to makePuntTheir call10.3%average punt
- Q3 2:25UNLV 4th & 8 at PV 31, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.1% before the snapGo for it89.8%−0.234% to convertField goalTheir call90.0%54% to makePunt89.1%−0.9average punt
- Q3 1:44UNLV 4th & 1 at UNLV 36, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call90.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt89.1%−1.3average punt
- Q4 15:00UNLV 4th & 2 at UNLV 49, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call91.8%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt90.7%−1.1average punt
- Q4 15:00UNLV 4th & 8 at PV 45, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.1% before the snapGo for it91.3%−0.234% to convertField goal90.3%−1.225% to makePuntTheir call91.5%average punt
- Q4 8:28PV 4th & 9 at UNLV 11, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.0% before the snapGo for it11.9%−3.427% to convertField goalTheir call15.3%87% to makePunt4.4%−10.9average punt
- Q4 5:04UNLV 4th & 6 at PV 15, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.2% before the snapGo for it91.4%−0.137% to convertField goalTheir call91.5%83% to makePunt86.9%−4.6average punt
- Q4 4:09PV 4th & 13 at PV 17, down 7Close callWent for it · 9.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.6%−0.319% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt6.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 9:23UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call96.4%97% to makeGo for two96.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:01UNLV Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.4%97% to makeGo for two96.4%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUNLVDrive 1TD14 plays · 75 yds · 5:3797% → 97%
Q1 9:23
3RD & 11
OPP 24
+24
96.8%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Drew Tejchman for 24 yds for a TD (Evan Pantels PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 2FUMBLE4 plays · -25 yds · 0:003% → 3%
UNLVDrive 3TD2 plays · 5 yds · 0:3797% → 97%
PVDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 8:01
3RD & 12
OWN 13
+27
96.9%
Jalen Morton pass complete to Jose Medrano for 27 yds to the PraVw 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5FUMBLE1 play · 0 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 6MISSED FG5 plays · 0 yds · 1:254% → 4%
Q1 5:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
96.6%
Jalen Morton run for 2 yds to the UNLV 6 Jalen Morton fumbled, recovered by PraVw Isaac ClaiborneSimilar
Q1 5:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
96.0%
Jalen Morton pass complete to Tristen Wallace for 6 yds for a TDSimilar
Q1 4:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+26
96.1%
Zach Elder 26 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Montrice Johns N/A return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
PVDrive 8Uncategorized5 plays · 8 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 3:27
3RD & 10
OWN 39
-4
96.0%
Jalen Morton sacked by Javin White for a loss of 4 yards to the PraVw 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9TD2 plays · 12 yds · 0:3596% → 96%
PVDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 1:29
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
95.7%
Caleb Darbone punt for 35 yds , Brandon Presley returns for no gain to the UNLV 37 Brandon Presley fumbled, forced by Steven Guillory, recovered by PraVw Donavan ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 11PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 0:435% → 5%
UNLVDrive 12TD17 plays · 89 yds · 6:3495% → 95%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
95.4%
CAMPBELL,X. rush for no gain to the UNLV11 (Anthony Stubbs;Ronald Collins), PENALTY UNLV holding 5 yards to the UNLV6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 15
OWN 6
+9
95.3%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo for 9 yds to the UNLV 15Similar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 6
OWN 15
+8
95.2%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Kendal Keys for 8 yds to the UNLV 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+26
95.4%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Mekhi Stevenson for 11 yds to the PraVw 47 for a 1ST down PRAIRIE VIEW Penalty, personal foul (Willie Green) to the PraVw 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 13Uncategorized11 plays · 74 yds · 0:006% → 7%
Q2 8:12
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+20
94.1%
Jalen Morton pass complete to Kalen Riles for 20 yds to the PraVw 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+38
94.0%
Jalen Morton pass complete to Kalen Riles for 38 yds to the UNLV 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+7
93.5%
Jalen Morton pass complete to Dawonya Tucker for 7 yds to the UNLV 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
PVDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:008% → 7%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 16TD5 plays · 59 yds · 0:5693% → 93%
Q2 1:47
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+9
93.6%
ROGERS,Armani pass incomplete to KEYS,Kendal, PENALTY PVAM pass interference (Ju'Anthony Park) 9 yards to the PVAM2, 1ST DOWN UNLV, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 17END OF HALF3 plays · -2 yds · 0:008% → 8%
PVDrive 18PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
91.7%
Jalen Morton pass incomplete to Tristen Wallace, broken up by Jocquez KaliliSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 19MISSED FG12 plays · 69 yds · 5:3692% → 91%
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
92.6%
Lexington Thomas run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+15
92.9%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Tyleek Collins for 15 yds to the PraVw 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
93.0%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Jamaal Neal for 6 yds to the PraVw 6Similar
Q3 14:14
3RD & 4
OPP 6
0
92.8%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo for no gain to the PraVw 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 36 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
89.4%
Jalen Morton pass complete to Tristen Wallace for 15 yds to the UNLV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
88.6%
Jalen Morton pass incomplete to Kalen Riles, broken up by Bryce JacksonSimilar
Q3 8:38
4TH & 10
OPP 44
+26
90.3%
Caleb Darbone punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UNLV 31 , Brandon Presley returns for 26 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 21INT2 plays · 14 yds · 0:0091% → 92%
PVDrive 22TD3 plays · 41 yds · 0:4213% → 14%
UNLVDrive 23MISSED FG9 plays · 42 yds · 3:1391% → 90%
Q3 5:38
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+11
91.7%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 11 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+16
92.0%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Kendal Keys for 16 yds to the PraVw 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
92.2%
Armani Rogers sacked by Anthony Stubbs for a loss of 5 yards to the PraVw 38Similar
Q3 2:25
4TH & 8
OPP 31
+7
90.4%
Daniel Gutierrez 49 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jaylen Harris Jaylen Harris return for 7 yds to the UNLV 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 24TD2 plays · 50 yds · 0:4114% → 16%
UNLVDrive 25PUNT15 plays · 28 yds · 1:4490% → 91%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 26FG10 plays · 88 yds · 2:3911% → 14%
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+15
88.4%
Jalen Morton pass complete to Kalen Riles for 15 yds to the PraVw 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+61
89.1%
Jalen Morton pass complete to Kalen Riles for 61 yds to the UNLV 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 4
OPP 6
-5
84.1%
Jalen Morton sacked by Nate Neal for a loss of 5 yards to the UNLV 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 27FG10 plays · 21 yds · 3:1492% → 92%
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-9
92.2%
ROGERS,Armani rush for 7 yards to the PVAM29 (Ronald Collins), PENALTY UNLV personal foul (OUTLAW,Donovan) 9 yards to the PVAM45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:18
3RD & 1
OPP 10
-10
91.8%
CAMPBELL,X. rush for 9 yards to the PVAM1 (Willie Green;Anthony Stubbs), PENALTY UNLV holding (POLU,Justin) 10 yards to the PVAM20, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 28FUMBLE2 plays · -14 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
88.5%
Jalen Morton sacked by Roger Mann for a loss of 5 yards to the PraVw 11 Jalen Morton fumbled, recovered by UNLV Roger Mann , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 29TD2 plays · 11 yds · 0:4493% → 94%
PVDrive 30Uncategorized6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q4 4:09
4TH & 1
OWN 29
-12
88.9%
Trazon Connley rush for 2 yards to the PVAM31 (GIBBS,D.), PENALTY PVAM unsportsmanlike conduct (Jailon Howard) 12 yards to the PVAM17, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+9.6
TD · Q3 1:44
Jalen Morton pass complete to Zarrian Holcombe for 13 yds for a TD (Zach Elder KICK)
-1.8
FG · Q4 5:04
Evan Pantels 32 yd FG GOOD
+1.3