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Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadWOF aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreWOF score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:47 · Luke Carter punt for 53 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differential
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:49: Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Tyree Mayfield for 6 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +8.8 pts (now 80%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:06: Joe Newman run for 4 yds for a TD (Luke Carter KICK) — WOF win probability +26.0 pts (now 60%) (top driver: WOF has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 3:25: Andre Stoddard run for 2 yds to the Woffd 33 — WOF win probability +22.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: WOF has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:17: Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Raghib Ismail Jr. for 9 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +58.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:05: Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Woffd 42 — WYO win probability +8.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 6 of 9WOF made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
- Q1 15:00WYO 4th & 9 at WYO 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 82.7% before the snapGo for it82.6%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.7%average punt
- Q1 13:21WOF 4th & 2 at WOF 45, tiedClose callPunted · 17.8% before the snapGo for it17.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 11:50WYO 4th & 4 at WYO 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 81.6% before the snapGo for it81.6%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.7%average punt
- Q1 8:32WOF 4th & 16 at WYO 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snapGo for it19.1%−0.216% to convertField goal19.2%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call19.3%average punt
- Q1 0:51WYO 4th & 1 at WOF 42, tiedClose callPunted · 78.8% before the snapGo for it78.8%70% to convertField goal78.1%−0.830% to makePuntTheir call78.2%−0.6average punt
- Q2 15:00WOF 4th & 1 at WOF 26, tiedClose callPunted · 22.0% before the snapGo for it22.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.9%−0.5average punt
- Q2 12:01WYO 4th & 14 at WYO 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 76.0% before the snapGo for it75.5%−0.717% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.3%average punt
- Q2 8:16WYO 4th & 3 at WOF 3, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 76.5% before the snapGo for it76.6%44% to convertField goalTheir call76.1%−0.593% to makePunt73.1%−3.5average punt
- Q3 10:54WYO 4th & 17 at WYO 27, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.9% before the snapGo for it71.2%−3.013% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.2%average punt
- Q3 8:17WOF 4th & 7 at WOF 38, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snapGo for it25.8%−0.737% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.5%average punt
- Q3 6:11WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 15, up 3Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 72.0% before the snapGo for it73.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.4%−2.1average punt
- Q3 4:04WOF 4th & 4 at WYO 33, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call28.4%48% to convertField goal27.0%−1.449% to makePunt25.7%−2.7average punt
- Q4 13:06WYO 4th & 13 at WYO 32, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snapGo for it42.3%−5.020% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.4%average punt
- Q4 10:47WOF 4th & 4 at WOF 47, up 4Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 61.5% before the snapGo for it61.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.4%−1.5average punt
- Q4 2:05WOF 4th & 3 at WYO 47, up 4Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 82.3% before the snapGo for it82.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.7%−2.3average punt
- Q4 0:51WYO 4th & 4 at WOF 19, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call25.3%47% to convertField goal20.5%−4.777% to makePunt11.1%−14.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WOF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 4:32WOF Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call31.5%97% to makeGo for two31.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:49WYO Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.0%97% to makeGo for two75.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:06WOF Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.5%97% to makeGo for two49.1%−0.445% to convert
- Q4 0:17WYO Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.3%97% to makeGo for two80.0%−2.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWYODrive 1PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+3
84.7%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Raghib Ismail Jr. for 3 yds to the Wyom 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 3PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 11:50
2ND & 4
OWN 10
-1
83.8%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Austin Conway for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 9Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 10
OWN 4
+12
83.6%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Austin Conway for 12 yds to the Wyom 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
83.8%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Xazavian Valladay for 6 yds to the Wyom 22Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 4
OWN 22
0
83.7%
Tyler Vander Waal pass incomplete to Austin Conway, broken up by Jireh WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 4PUNT9 plays · 26 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
WYODrive 5PUNT9 plays · 38 yds · 3:4581% → 81%
WOFDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 0:4320% → 20%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+6
79.7%
Joe Newman pass complete to Blake Morgan for 6 yds to the Woffd 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-9
79.6%
Blake Morgan rush for 8 yards to the WOF25, out-of-bounds (WILSON, Logan), PENALTY WOF illegal block 9 yards to the WOF8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 9
+11
79.9%
Joe Newman pass complete to Jason Hill for 11 yds to the Woffd 20Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 26
+2
80.0%
Luke Carter punt for 45 yds , Austin Conway returns for 2 yds to the Wyom 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 7PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
WOFDrive 8FUMBLE2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0022% → 23%
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
77.6%
Joe Newman pass complete to Blake Morgan for 3 yds to the Woffd 32Similar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+7
77.4%
Andre Stoddard run for a loss of 2 yards to the Woffd 10 Andre Stoddard fumbled, forced by Youhanna Ghaifan, recovered by Wyom Sidney Malauulu , return for 7 yds to the Woffd 10 , return for 15 yds to the Woffd 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 9FG4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2081% → 80%
Q2 9:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
80.1%
Tyler Vander Waal pass incomplete to Raghib Ismail Jr., broken up by Devin WatsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 10TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4421% → 32%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 11TD15 plays · 75 yds · 3:4371% → 80%
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
71.3%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Austin Conway for 6 yds to the Wyom 31Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+7
73.5%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Xazavian Valladay for 7 yds to the Woffd 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
73.8%
Tyler Vander Waal sacked by JoJo Tillery for a loss of 1 yard to the Woffd 49Similar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
72.7%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Austin Conway for 9 yds to the Woffd 21Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+7
70.8%
VANDER WAAL, T. pass incomplete to CONWAY, Austin, PENALTY WOF roughing passer 7 yards to the WOF6, 1ST DOWN WY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
79.6%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Tyree Mayfield for 6 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 12END OF HALF3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
WOFDrive 13INT10 plays · 55 yds · 0:0024% → 26%
WYODrive 14PUNT7 plays · 7 yds · 0:0076% → 74%
Q3 10:54
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+12
74.6%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Austin Conway for 12 yds to the Wyom 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 9
OWN 35
-8
75.1%
Tyler Vander Waal sacked by T.J. Neal for a loss of 8 yards to the Wyom 27Similar
Q3 10:54
4TH & 17
OWN 27
0
73.9%
Tim Zaleski punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Lennox McAfee at the Woffd 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0027% → 25%
Q3 8:17
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
73.6%
Joe Newman pass complete to Blake Morgan for 3 yds to the Woffd 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 16PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0075% → 73%
WOFDrive 17TD12 plays · 53 yds · 5:5830% → 60%
WYODrive 18PUNT7 plays · 7 yds · 0:0048% → 45%
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
48.4%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to James Price for 10 yds to the Wyom 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-10
49.5%
VANDER WAAL, T. pass complete to MAYFIELD, Tyree for 16 yards to the WOF47, out-of-bounds (Mason Alstatt), PENALTY WY holding 10 yards to the WY27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 18
OWN 27
+5
47.8%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Austin Conway for 5 yds to the Wyom 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 19PUNT8 plays · 26 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q4 10:47
4TH & 5
OWN 26
+15
42.2%
WYOMING Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Woffd 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 20INT10 plays · 64 yds · 3:1942% → 45%
Q4 7:27
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
41.9%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Austin Conway for 5 yds to the Wyom 25Similar
Q4 7:27
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+6
40.9%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Austin Conway for 6 yds to the Wyom 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+12
43.0%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to James Price for 12 yds to the Wyom 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
46.5%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Austin Conway for 14 yds to the Woffd 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+17
48.5%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Tyree Mayfield for 17 yds to the Woffd 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+15
44.9%
Tyler Vander Waal pass intercepted Weston Rountree return for 15 yds to the Woffd 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 21PUNT9 plays · 22 yds · 1:2078% → 85%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 22TD16 plays · 80 yds · 1:4223% → 95%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
23.0%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Raghib Ismail Jr. for 17 yds to the Wyom 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+12
22.3%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Austin Conway for 12 yds to the Wyom 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
27.8%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to James Price for 16 yds to the Woffd 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
33.5%
VANDER WAAL, T. pass incomplete to PRICE, James, PENALTY WY ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the WOF40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 15
OPP 40
+15
26.1%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Tyree Mayfield for 15 yds to the Woffd 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
34.3%
Tyler Vander Waal pass incomplete to Austin Conway, broken up by Ulysses StrawterSimilar
Q4 0:51
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+10
25.9%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Xazavian Valladay for 10 yds to the Woffd 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
94.8%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Raghib Ismail Jr. for 9 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 23INT3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0012% → 14%
WYODrive 24END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:17
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Raghib Ismail Jr. for 9 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK)
+58.1
TD · Q4 13:06
Joe Newman run for 4 yds for a TD (Luke Carter KICK)
-26
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:25
Andre Stoddard run for 2 yds to the Woffd 33
-22.5