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STBK

Stony Brook 0 at Air Force 38

AF
2018 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2018 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadSTBK aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreSTBK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:50 · Marc Nolan punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 89Pregame prior+20.0Home team on offense+18.1Score differential+11.6Garbage-time factor+3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.8Blowout margin+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 12:36: Matthew Philichi 48 yd FG GOOD — AF win probability +2.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:37: Cole Fagan run for 16 yds for a TD, (Matthew Philichi KICK) — AF win probability +4.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:42: Ronald Cleveland run for 1 yd to the AFA 47 — AF win probability +1.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 15:00: Joseph Saucier run for 4 yds to the StBrk 6 for a 1ST down STONY BROOK Penalty, personal foul (EJ Fineran) to the StBrk 3 for a 1ST down — AF win probability +1.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:45: Isaiah Sanders run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Philichi KICK) — AF win probability +1.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 8 of 10STBK made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00STBK 4th & 6 at STBK 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:41STBK 4th & 1 at STBK 34, down 14
    Close callPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:46AF 4th & 12 at AF 30, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.4%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    84.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:36STBK 4th & 3 at AF 3, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    15.5%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    13.6%−2.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:53AF 4th & 6 at AF 7, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:38STBK 4th & 22 at AF 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−1.0
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    12.8%−1.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:36AF 4th & 18 at STBK 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−1.1
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    85.5%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:30STBK 4th & 17 at STBK 22, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−2.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:32STBK 4th & 16 at STBK 20, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−1.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:41AF 4th & 1 at STBK 46, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    92.8%−1.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    93.2%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:50STBK 4th & 5 at STBK 13, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:13AF 4th & 1 at STBK 45, up 24
    Close callWent for it · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.3%−<0.1
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    95.3%
    25% to make
    Punt
    95.0%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 15:00AF 4th & 18 at AF 17, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−1.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:24STBK 4th & 11 at AF 48, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:29AF 4th & 2 at STBK 48, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    96.3%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:45STBK 4th & 5 at STBK 30, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:32AF 4th & 5 at AF 25, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:14STBK 4th & 1 at STBK 44, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:33AF 4th & 2 at STBK 18, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:40AF 4th & 1 at STBK 5, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.2
    92% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:21AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:41AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:37AF Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:45AF Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:40AF Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STBKDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
85.4%
STONY BROOK Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the StBrk 20Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
85.4%
Donald Liotine run for 3 yds to the StBrk 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+6
85.4%
Joe Carbone pass complete to Donald Liotine for 6 yds to the StBrk 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
85.4%
Joe Carbone pass incomplete, broken up by Garrett KauppilaSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
85.4%
Marc Nolan punt for 45 yds , Ronald Cleveland returns for no gain to the AFA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 3:4285% → 85%
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
85.1%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+5
85.1%
STONY BROOK Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the AFA 35Similar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 1
OWN 35
0
85.2%
Joseph Saucier run for no gain to the AFA 35Similar
Q1 14:03
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+3
85.1%
Parker Wilson run for 3 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
85.2%
Ronald Cleveland run for 6 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 4
OWN 44
0
85.2%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Ronald ClevelandSimilar
Q1 14:03
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+13
85.2%
Arion Worthman run for 13 yds to the StBrk 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+31
85.2%
Joseph Saucier run for 31 yds to the StBrk 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
85.2%
Parker Wilson run for 5 yds to the StBrk 7Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+7
85.3%
Arion Worthman run for 7 yds for a TD, (Matthew Philichi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 3INT TD
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:4015% → 14%
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
84.9%
Jordan Gowins run for 1 yd to the StBrk 26Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+32
85.8%
Joe Carbone pass intercepted for a TD Kyle Johnson return for 32 yds for a TD, (Matthew Philichi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.8%
Donald Liotine run for 2 yds to the StBrk 27Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
85.8%
Donald Liotine run for 2 yds to the StBrk 29Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
85.8%
Joe Carbone pass complete to Donavin Washington for 5 yds to the StBrk 34Similar
Q1 9:41
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
85.8%
Marc Nolan punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5DOWNS
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
86.5%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 27Similar
Q1 7:46
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+3
86.5%
Parker Wilson run for 3 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 12
OWN 30
0
86.5%
Ronald Cleveland run for no gain to the AFA 30Similar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 12
OWN 30
0
86.3%
Arion Worthman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:46
4TH & 12
OWN 30
-10
86.2%
Charlie Scott run for a loss of 10 yards to the AFA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 6DOWNS
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
85.7%
Jordan Gowins run for no gain to the AFA 20Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
85.7%
Joe Carbone pass incomplete, broken up by Robert BullardSimilar
Q1 6:36
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+13
86.0%
Joe Carbone pass incomplete to Marshall Ellick, PENALTY AF pass interference 13 yards to the AF7, 1ST DOWN SBU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
85.7%
Donald Liotine run for 5 yds to the AFA 2Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
85.7%
Donald Liotine run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 3Similar
Q1 6:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
85.8%
Joe Carbone pass incomplete to Donavin WashingtonSimilar
Q1 6:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
86.0%
Marc Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
86.8%
Arion Worthman run for no gain to the AFA 3Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+4
86.8%
Joseph Saucier run for 4 yds to the AFA 7 AIR FORCE Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 6
OWN 7
0
86.7%
Arion Worthman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:53
4TH & 6
OWN 7
+37
86.5%
Charlie Scott punt for 45 yds , Donavin Washington returns for 37 yds to the AFA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 8MISSED FG
4 plays · -12 yds · 1:5314% → 13%
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-7
85.8%
Joe Carbone run for a loss of 7 yards to the AFA 29 Joe Carbone fumbled, recovered by StBrk Joe CarboneSimilar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 24
OPP 29
+3
86.2%
Joe Carbone pass complete to Marshall Ellick for 3 yds to the AFA 26Similar
Q1 3:31
3RD & 21
OPP 26
-1
86.5%
Joe Carbone sacked by Lakota Wills for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 27Similar
Q1 1:38
4TH & 22
OPP 27
+45
86.6%
Nick Courtney 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 4:0287% → 90%
Q1 1:38
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+12
87.0%
Joseph Saucier run for 12 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
87.1%
Ronald Cleveland run for 3 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+3
87.2%
Parker Wilson run for 3 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
87.5%
Arion Worthman run for 7 yds to the StBrk 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+25
87.8%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 25 yds to the StBrk 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
87.8%
Cole Fagan run for 3 yds to the StBrk 19Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 19
-13
87.8%
Ronald Cleveland run for a loss of 13 yards to the StBrk 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 20
OPP 32
+2
87.4%
Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the StBrk 30Similar
Q2 12:36
4TH & 18
OPP 30
+48
89.5%
Matthew Philichi 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
89.0%
Donald Liotine run for 3 yds to the StBrk 32Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 7
OWN 32
-10
89.0%
Joe Carbone pass complete to Marshall Ellick for 7 yards to the SBU39 (BULLARD, Robert), PENALTY SBU holding (Chris Infantino) 10 yards to the SBU22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 17
OWN 22
0
89.3%
Joe Carbone pass incomplete to Marshall Ellick, broken up by Robert BullardSimilar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 17
OWN 22
0
89.3%
Joe Carbone pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:30
4TH & 17
OWN 22
0
89.4%
Marc Nolan punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:5890% → 95%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
90.3%
Ronald Cleveland run for 17 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
90.6%
Parker Wilson run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 2
50
+4
90.7%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for 4 yds to the StBrk 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
90.6%
Andrew Smith run for 3 yds to the StBrk 43Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+8
90.6%
Arion Worthman run for 8 yds to the StBrk 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
90.7%
Nolan Eriksen run for 7 yds to the StBrk 28Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+1
90.7%
Cole Fagan run for 1 yd to the StBrk 27Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+2
90.4%
Cole Fagan run for 2 yds to the StBrk 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
90.7%
STONY BROOK Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the StBrk 20Similar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 5
OPP 20
+2
90.7%
Cole Fagan run for 2 yds to the StBrk 18Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+2
90.7%
Garrett Amy run for 2 yds to the StBrk 16Similar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+16
94.6%
Cole Fagan run for 16 yds for a TD, (Matthew Philichi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
93.6%
Donald Liotine run for no gain to the StBrk 26Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
93.7%
Donald Liotine run for 3 yds to the StBrk 29Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 7
OWN 29
-9
93.7%
Joe Carbone sacked by R.J. Jackson for a loss of 9 yards to the StBrk 20Similar
Q2 6:32
4TH & 16
OWN 20
0
93.8%
Marc Nolan punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13FUMBLE
8 plays · 47 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
95.2%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+3
95.1%
Nolan Eriksen run for 3 yds to the StBrk 49Similar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+3
95.0%
Cole Fagan run for 3 yds to the StBrk 46Similar
Q2 4:41
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+2
94.7%
Cole Fagan run for 2 yds to the StBrk 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
95.2%
WORTHMAN, Arion pass incomplete to CLEVELAND, Ron, PENALTY SBU personal foul (Odean Gilzene) 15 yards to the SBU29, 1ST DOWN AF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
95.2%
Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the StBrk 27Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+2
95.2%
Cole Fagan run for 2 yds to the StBrk 25Similar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+7
95.1%
Arion Worthman run for 7 yds to the StBrk 8 Arion Worthman fumbled, forced by CeQuan Jefferson, recovered by StBrk EJ FineranSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:355% → 5%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
94.9%
Joe Carbone pass incomplete to Cal Daniels, broken up by Kyle JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+1
94.9%
Donald Liotine run for 1 yd to the StBrk 9Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 9
OWN 9
+4
94.9%
Joe Carbone pass complete to Nick Anderson for 4 yds to the StBrk 13Similar
Q2 0:50
4TH & 5
OWN 13
0
94.7%
Marc Nolan punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15MISSED FG
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:4296% → 96%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
96.4%
Ronald Cleveland run for 1 yd to the AFA 47Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+3
96.3%
Cole Fagan run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 6
50
0
96.1%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Ronald Cleveland, broken up by EJ FineranSimilar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 6
50
+5
95.8%
STONY BROOK Penalty, Defensive offside (Jordan Scarbrough) to the StBrk 45Similar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+2
95.8%
Cole Fagan run for 2 yds to the StBrk 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+61
96.1%
Matthew Philichi 61 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
95.9%
AMY, Garrett rush for 2 yards to the AF27, out-of-bounds (Synceir Malone), PENALTY AF personal foul (SAUCIER, Joseph) 12 yards to the AF13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 22
OWN 13
0
95.9%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Marcus BennettSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+4
95.8%
Garrett Amy run for 4 yds to the AFA 17Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
95.8%
Arion Worthman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
95.6%
Charlie Scott punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Donavin Washington at the StBrk 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 17FUMBLE
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
95.0%
Jordan Gowins run for 4 yds to the StBrk 40Similar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-6
95.0%
Joe Carbone run for a loss of 6 yards to the StBrk 32 Joe Carbone fumbled, recovered by AFA Dailen SuttonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18FUMBLE
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
96.3%
Taven Birdow run for 4 yds to the StBrk 28Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+3
96.3%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the StBrk 25Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 3
OPP 25
0
96.2%
Joseph Saucier run for no gain to the StBrk 24 Joseph Saucier fumbled, recovered by StBrk EJ FineranSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
95.9%
Donald Liotine run for 1 yd to the StBrk 25Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+8
95.9%
Donald Liotine run for 8 yds to the StBrk 33Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+4
95.8%
Donald Liotine run for 4 yds to the StBrk 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
95.8%
Joe Carbone pass incomplete to Nick AndersonSimilar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
95.8%
Jordan Gowins run for 4 yds to the StBrk 41Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+12
95.8%
Joe Carbone pass complete to Donavin Washington for 12 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
95.7%
Jordan Gowins run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 48Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 11
OPP 48
0
95.7%
Joe Carbone pass incomplete to Marshall EllickSimilar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 11
OPP 48
0
95.8%
Joe Carbone pass incomplete to Marshall EllickSimilar
Q3 12:24
4TH & 11
OPP 48
0
96.0%
Marc Nolan punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20TD
20 plays · 88 yds · 10:4497% → 100%
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
96.9%
Cole Fagan run for 3 yds to the AFA 15Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+6
96.9%
Isaiah Sanders run for 6 yds to the AFA 21Similar
Q3 9:29
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+8
96.9%
Cole Fagan run for 8 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
96.9%
Cole Fagan run for 3 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+6
96.9%
Nolan Eriksen run for 6 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q3 9:29
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+6
97.0%
Cole Fagan run for 6 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
97.1%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+6
97.1%
Joseph Saucier run for 6 yds to the StBrk 47Similar
Q3 9:29
3RD & 1
OPP 47
-1
97.1%
Taven Birdow run for a loss of 1 yard to the StBrk 48Similar
Q3 9:29
4TH & 2
OPP 48
+5
96.8%
Taven Birdow run for 5 yds to the StBrk 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
97.1%
Isaiah Sanders run for 4 yds to the StBrk 39Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+11
97.1%
Joseph Saucier run for 11 yds to the StBrk 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
97.1%
Cole Fagan run for 4 yds to the StBrk 24Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+4
97.1%
Cole Fagan run for 4 yds to the StBrk 20Similar
Q3 9:29
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+7
97.0%
Nolan Eriksen run for 7 yds to the StBrk 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
97.1%
Cole Fagan run for 3 yds to the StBrk 10Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 7
OPP 10
0
97.1%
Cole Fagan run for no gain to the StBrk 10Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+7
98.7%
Joseph Saucier run for 4 yds to the StBrk 6 for a 1ST down STONY BROOK Penalty, personal foul (EJ Fineran) to the StBrk 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
98.8%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the StBrk 1Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Isaiah Sanders run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Philichi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Kameron Pickett run for 1 yd to the StBrk 26Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
99.9%
Kameron Pickett run for 4 yds to the StBrk 30Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.8%
Joe Carbone pass incomplete to Marshall EllickSimilar
Q4 13:45
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.8%
Marc Nolan punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.8%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-2
99.8%
Joseph Saucier run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 21Similar
Q4 12:32
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+4
99.8%
Joseph Saucier run for 4 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q4 12:32
4TH & 5
OWN 25
-2
99.8%
Charlie Scott punt for 38 yds , Donavin Washington returns for a loss of 2 yards to the StBrk 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 23DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.9%
Jordan Gowins run for 4 yds to the StBrk 39Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Tyquell Fields pass incomplete to Julius Wingate, broken up by Garrett KauppilaSimilar
Q4 10:14
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+5
99.9%
Tyquell Fields pass complete to Julius Wingate for 5 yds to the StBrk 44Similar
Q4 10:14
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Tyquell Fields run for no gain to the StBrk 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 24TD
11 plays · 44 yds · 6:13100% → 100%
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
99.9%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the StBrk 42Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+16
99.9%
Isaiah Sanders run for 16 yds to the StBrk 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
99.9%
Christian Mallard run for 7 yds to the StBrk 19Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+1
99.9%
Christian Mallard run for 1 yd to the StBrk 18Similar
Q4 7:33
3RD & 2
OPP 18
0
99.9%
Christian Mallard run for no gain to the StBrk 18Similar
Q4 7:33
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+4
99.9%
Donald Hammond III run for 4 yds to the StBrk 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
99.9%
Christian Mallard run for 8 yds to the StBrk 6Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 2
OPP 6
-1
99.9%
Donald Hammond III run for a loss of 1 yard to the StBrk 7Similar
Q4 7:33
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+2
99.9%
Garrett Kauppila run for 2 yds to the StBrk 5Similar
Q4 2:40
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+5
100.0%
Donald Hammond III run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 25END OF GAME
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
100.0%
Kameron Pickett run for 3 yds to the StBrk 21Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+2
100.0%
Kameron Pickett run for 2 yds to the StBrk 23Similar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+10
100.0%
Tyquell Fields pass complete to Nick Anderson for 10 yds to the StBrk 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
99.9%
Kameron Pickett run for 1 yd to the StBrk 34Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+4
100.0%
Kameron Pickett run for 4 yds to the StBrk 38Similar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+4
99.9%
Kameron Pickett run for 4 yds to the StBrk 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:37
Cole Fagan run for 16 yds for a TD, (Matthew Philichi KICK)
+4
FG · Q2 12:36
Matthew Philichi 48 yd FG GOOD
+2.1
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:42
Ronald Cleveland run for 1 yd to the AFA 47
+1.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com