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SDSU

San Diego State 10 at Stanford 31

STAN
2018 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2018 · Stanford Stadium
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Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDSAFETYTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:03 · Jake Bailey punt for 63 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 52Pregame prior+25.6Home team on offense−4.0Score differential−1.1Garbage-time factor−1.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 2:20: K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 35 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST down — SDSU win probability +6.1 pts (now 34%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:27: K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 38 yds for a TD (Jet Toner KICK) — STAN win probability +10.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:02: K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 19 yds for a TD (Jet Toner KICK) — STAN win probability +6.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 6:49: John Baron II 30 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +5.4 pts (now 23%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:43: K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 80 yds for a TD (K.J. Costello pass for Two-Point Conversion) — STAN win probability +6.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6SDSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 9:55STAN 4th & 5 at SDSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    81.0%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:55SDSU 4th & 13 at SDSU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:24STAN 4th & 10 at SDSU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00STAN 4th & 3 at midfield, down 7
    Close callPunted · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:22SDSU 4th & 13 at SDSU 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:03STAN 4th & 10 at STAN 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:21STAN 4th & 11 at STAN 37, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−1.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:57SDSU 4th & 10 at SDSU 23, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−2.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00SDSU 4th & 22 at SDSU 13, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−3.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:49SDSU 4th & 9 at STAN 13, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.4%
    85% to make
    Punt
    7.0%−8.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:38SDSU 4th & 17 at SDSU 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−1.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:05STAN 4th & 9 at SDSU 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    91.5%−1.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00SDSU 4th & 1 at STAN 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    6.6%−2.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−3.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:54SDSU 4th & 20 at SDSU 47, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 4SDSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 2:38SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:27STAN Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:02STAN Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:43STAN Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    89.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:54STAN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1MISSED FG
13 plays · 55 yds · 5:0585% → 84%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.1%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Bryce Love, broken up by Anthony LukeSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.1%
Bryce Love run for 2 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+13
85.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kaden Smith for 13 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
85.1%
Bryce Love run for 7 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+2
85.1%
Bryce Love run for 2 yds to the Stanf 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+5
85.1%
Cameron Scarlett run for 5 yds to the SDSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+21
85.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 21 yds to the SDSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
85.1%
Bryce Love run for 1 yd to the SDSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
85.1%
K.J. Costello pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+4
85.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 4 yds to the SDSt 20Similar
Q1 9:55
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+38
83.8%
Jet Toner 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
83.6%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 15Similar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+1
83.6%
Juwan Washington run for 1 yd to the SDSt 16Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 14
OWN 16
0
83.6%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+1
83.7%
Juwan Washington run for 1 yd to the SDSt 17Similar
Q1 9:55
4TH & 13
OWN 17
+5
83.8%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 36 yds , Connor Wedington returns for 5 yds to the SDSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
83.6%
Bryce Love run for no gain to the SDSt 48Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
83.5%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Osiris St. Brown for no gain to the SDSt 48Similar
Q1 8:24
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
83.3%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JJ Arcega-WhitesideSimilar
Q1 8:24
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
83.0%
Jake Bailey punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Juwan Washington at the SDSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 92 yds · 4:1418% → 24%
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
82.5%
Juwan Washington run for 1 yd to the SDSt 9Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+3
82.6%
Juwan Washington run for 3 yds to the SDSt 12Similar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+8
82.7%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Parker Houston for 8 yds to the SDSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
82.4%
Juwan Washington run for 22 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
82.0%
Juwan Washington run for 10 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+40
81.9%
Juwan Washington run for 40 yds to the Stanf 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
81.6%
Juwan Washington run for 4 yds to the Stanf 4Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
76.3%
Juwan Washington run for 4 yds for a TD (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:3877% → 76%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
77.4%
Bryce Love run for 1 yd to the Stanf 26Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-3
77.4%
Bryce Love run for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 23Similar
Q1 2:38
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+15
76.8%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, personal foul (Ronley Lakalaka) to the Stanf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
78.1%
Bryce Love run for 2 yds to the Stanf 45Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+5
78.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kaden Smith for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:38
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+5
76.9%
Trevor Speights run for 5 yds to the Stanf 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
50
0
76.5%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Kaden Smith, broken up by Tariq ThompsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
50
0
75.9%
Jake Bailey punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 3:2525% → 26%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
75.2%
Juwan Washington run for 7 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+1
74.6%
Juwan Washington run for 1 yd to the SDSt 28Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+2
74.9%
Juwan Washington run for 2 yds to the SDSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-15
74.8%
CHAPMAN, C. pass incomplete, QB hurry by Okereke,B, PENALTY SDSU personal foul (LESSARD, Isaac) 15 yards to the SDSU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 25
OWN 15
+5
75.3%
Juwan Washington run for 5 yds to the SDSt 20Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 20
OWN 20
+7
75.4%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Ethan Dedeaux for 7 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 13
OWN 27
0
73.6%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:22
4TH & 13
OWN 27
+13
74.0%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 50 yds , Connor Wedington returns for 13 yds to the Stanf 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
73.0%
Bryce Love run for no gain to the Stanf 36Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
72.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Connor Wedington for 2 yds to the Stanf 38Similar
Q2 11:03
3RD & 8
OWN 38
-2
72.6%
K.J. Costello sacked by Chibu Onyeukwu for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 36Similar
Q2 11:03
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
71.8%
Jake Bailey punt for 63 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8SF
3 plays · -1 yds · 1:3529% → 27%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
71.2%
Chase Jasmin run for 2 yds to the SDSt 3Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+2
71.4%
Chase Jasmin run for 2 yds to the SDSt 5Similar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 6
OWN 5
-5
72.9%
Christian Chapman sacked by Bobby Okereke for a loss of 5 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0072% → 70%
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
72.0%
Bryce Love run for a loss of 5 yards to the Stanf 33Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+4
71.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Bryce Love for 4 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q2 7:21
3RD & 11
OWN 37
0
70.7%
K.J. Costello pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:21
4TH & 11
OWN 37
+2
70.3%
Jake Bailey punt for 45 yds , Juwan Washington returns for 2 yds to the SDSt 11 Juwan Washington fumbled, recovered by SDSt Juwan Washington SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the SDSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
70.8%
Chase Jasmin run for 2 yds to the SDSt 13Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+1
71.1%
Chase Jasmin run for 1 yd to the SDSt 14Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+9
71.6%
Chase Jasmin run for 9 yds to the SDSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
70.5%
Juwan Washington run for 1 yd to the SDSt 24Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
70.9%
Juwan Washington run for no gain to the SDSt 24Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 9
OWN 24
-10
71.4%
CHAPMAN, C. rush for 9 yards to the SDSU33, PENALTY SDSU holding (POPE, Ryan) 10 yards to the SDSU14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 19
OWN 14
+9
71.6%
Juwan Washington run for 9 yds to the SDSt 23Similar
Q2 5:57
4TH & 10
OWN 23
+56
72.1%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 46 yds, downed at the STANFORD 31 STANFORD Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Stanf 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11INT
4 plays · 40 yds · 0:0066% → 69%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+35
66.0%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 35 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
69.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 5 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 5
OPP 39
0
69.2%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JJ Arcega-WhitesideSimilar
Q2 2:20
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+7
68.8%
K.J. Costello pass intercepted Noble Hall return for 7 yds to the Stanf 48 Noble Hall fumbled, forced by Trenton Irwin, recovered by Stanf Trenton IrwinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 12TD
3 plays · 52 yds · 1:5369% → 79%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
68.5%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Bryce Love for 3 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+11
69.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Bryce Love for 11 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
79.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 38 yds for a TD (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
75.7%
Juwan Washington run for 3 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:0024% → 22%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.9%
Juwan Washington run for no gain to the SDSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
76.0%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Ethan Dedeaux for 5 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-17
76.1%
Christian Chapman sacked by Michael Williams and Jovan Swann for a loss of 17 yards to the SDSt 13Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
77.7%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Trenton Irwin at the SDSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15TD
6 plays · 49 yds · 1:4678% → 86%
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
78.3%
Bryce Love run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 11
50
+15
77.2%
Costello,K pass incomplete to A.-Whiteside,JJ (THOMPSON, Tariq), PENALTY SDSU pass interference (THOMPSON, Tariq) 15 yards to the SDSU35, 1ST DOWN STAN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
78.9%
Costello,K pass incomplete to Irwin,T (WOODS, Kyree), PENALTY SDSU pass interference (WOODS, Kyree) 15 yards to the SDSU20, 1ST DOWN STAN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
78.9%
Bryce Love run for 1 yd to the SDSt 19Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
78.9%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Colby Parkinson, broken up by Tariq ThompsonSimilar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+19
85.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 19 yds for a TD (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16FG
11 plays · 62 yds · 4:1316% → 23%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
84.1%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Fred Trevillion for 19 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
82.9%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Ethan Dedeaux for 9 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+21
82.0%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Tim Wilson Jr. for 21 yds to the Stanf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
81.2%
Juwan Washington run for 2 yds to the Stanf 24Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 8
OPP 24
0
81.2%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Tim Wilson Jr., broken up by Paulson AdeboSimilar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+10
82.5%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Fred Trevillion for 10 yds to the Stanf 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
81.2%
Juwan Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 15Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 11
OPP 15
0
81.5%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Isaac Lessard, broken up by Bobby OkerekeSimilar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 11
OPP 15
+2
82.5%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Juwan Washington for 2 yds to the Stanf 13 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 6:49
4TH & 9
OPP 13
+30
77.2%
John Baron II 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0681% → 90%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
80.5%
Love,B rush for 2 yards to the STAN27 (HALL, Noble), PENALTY STAN holding (Sarell,F) 10 yards to the STAN15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+4
80.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 4 yds to the Stanf 19Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+1
80.1%
Bryce Love run for 1 yd to the Stanf 20Similar
Q3 4:43
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+80
90.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 80 yds for a TD (K.J. Costello pass for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · -7 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
89.6%
Juwan Washington run for 5 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
89.0%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Kahale WarringSimilar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 5
OWN 32
-5
89.4%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (Dominic Gudino) to the SDSt 27Similar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 10
OWN 27
-5
90.3%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (Dominic Gudino) to the SDSt 22Similar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 15
OWN 22
-2
90.4%
Christian Chapman sacked by Jovan Swann for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 20Similar
Q3 4:38
4TH & 17
OWN 20
+10
90.5%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 37 yds , Trenton Irwin returns for 10 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
92.1%
Bryce Love run for 1 yd to the SDSt 46Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
92.0%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Bryce LoveSimilar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 9
OPP 46
0
91.6%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Colby ParkinsonSimilar
Q3 3:05
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
91.1%
Jake Bailey punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20DOWNS
6 plays · 48 yds · 2:049% → 7%
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+39
90.8%
Juwan Washington run for 39 yds to the Stanf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
88.6%
Juwan Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 42Similar
Q3 0:53
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+4
92.0%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Juwan Washington for 4 yds to the Stanf 38Similar
Q3 0:53
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+6
92.1%
Christian Chapman run for 6 yds to the Stanf 32Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 32
0
92.7%
Juwan Washington run for no gain to the Stanf 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 4:0295% → 99%
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
95.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 6 yds to the Stanf 38Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+14
95.5%
Bryce Love run for 14 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
95.6%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 9 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+3
95.5%
Bryce Love run for 3 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
95.6%
Bryce Love run for no gain to the SDSt 36Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+15
95.5%
Costello,K pass incomplete to Parkinson,C, PENALTY SDSU personal foul (HALL, Noble) 15 yards to the SDSU21, 1ST DOWN STAN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
95.6%
Cameron Scarlett run for 2 yds to the SDSt 19Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+19
99.4%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 19 yds for a TD (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.9%
Ethan Dedeaux run for 4 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+28
98.9%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Tim Wilson Jr. for 28 yds to the Stanf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
98.8%
Chase Jasmin run for 9 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 1
OPP 34
-13
98.6%
Christian Chapman sacked by Thomas Booker for a loss of 13 yards to the Stanf 47Similar
Q4 10:54
3RD & 14
OPP 47
-6
99.0%
Christian Chapman sacked by Joey Alfieri for a loss of 6 yards to the SDSt 47Similar
Q4 10:54
4TH & 20
OWN 47
0
99.0%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 52 yds, downed at the Stanf 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 23END OF GAME
12 plays · 83 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
99.5%
STANFORD Penalty, false start (Nate Herbig) to the Stanf 1Similar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
99.5%
Cameron Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Stanf 4Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+1
99.5%
Cameron Scarlett run for 1 yd to the Stanf 5Similar
Q4 7:23
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+33
99.5%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 33 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
99.5%
Cameron Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Stanf 40Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+3
99.5%
Bryce Love run for 3 yds to the Stanf 43Similar
Q4 7:23
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+9
99.5%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 9 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
99.5%
Cameron Scarlett run for 2 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+1
99.5%
Cameron Scarlett run for 1 yd to the SDSt 45Similar
Q4 7:23
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+12
99.5%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 12 yds to the SDSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
99.5%
Trevor Speights run for 2 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+15
99.5%
Speights,T rush for 2 yards to the SDSU29 (ONYEUKWU, Chibu), PENALTY SDSU personal foul (HALL, Noble) 15 yards to the SDSU16, 1ST DOWN STAN, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:27
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 38 yds for a TD (Jet Toner KICK)
+10
TD · Q3 11:02
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 19 yds for a TD (Jet Toner KICK)
+6.9
TD · Q3 4:43
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 80 yds for a TD (K.J. Costello pass for Two-Point Conversion)
+6.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com