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APP

App State 38 at Texas State 7

TXST
2018 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2018 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:05 · Clayton Stewart punt for 53 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 50Pregame prior−33.3Home team on offense−6.1Score differential−3.2Garbage-time factor−1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:14: Zac Thomas pass complete to Collin Reed for 1 yd for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +2.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:20: Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +5.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:36: Darrynton Evans run for 79 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +1.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:00: Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 6 yds for a TD (Chris Kessler KICK) — TXST win probability +4.4 pts (now 8%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 8:00: James Sherman kickoff for 62 yds , Darrynton Evans return for 17 yds to the AppSt 20 — APP win probability +2.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 8APP made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 11:56TXST 4th & 4 at APP 39, down 7
    Close callPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    13.1%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:35APP 4th & 19 at APP 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−0.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:12TXST 4th & 7 at APP 30, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    14.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    14.4%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:15APP 4th & 7 at TXST 30, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    85.3%
    56% to make
    Punt
    85.1%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:05TXST 4th & 15 at TXST 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:41APP 4th & 6 at APP 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:26TXST 4th & 11 at APP 45, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    2.5%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:37APP 4th & 6 at APP 5, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:15TXST 4th & 3 at APP 10, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    49% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%−<0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:55APP 4th & 2 at TXST 24, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    95.4%−0.4
    68% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−2.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:50APP 4th & 6 at TXST 12, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.6%
    86% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:42TXST 4th & 11 at TXST 40, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:57APP 4th & 7 at APP 30, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:22TXST 4th & 9 at APP 33, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    1.9%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:22TXST 4th & 9 at APP 23, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    1.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1APP made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 12:04APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:14APP Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:20APP Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:36APP Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:00TXST Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:01APP Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1FUMBLE
6 plays · 42 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
11.2%
Keenen Brown run for 4 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
11.2%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Keenen Brown for 15 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
11.2%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Tyler Watts for 11 yds to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
11.2%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the AppSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+10
11.2%
Willie Jones III run for 10 yds to the AppSt 33 Willie Jones III fumbled, forced by Josh Thomas, recovered by AppSt Austin ExfordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2TD
3 plays · 67 yds · 1:0288% → 88%
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+43
12.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Collin Reed for 43 yds to the TexSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+16
11.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Dominique Heath for 16 yds to the TexSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
11.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Dominique Heath for 8 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
11 plays · 33 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
12.0%
Caleb Twyford run for 8 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+1
12.1%
Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd to the TexSt 37Similar
Q1 11:56
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+8
12.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 8 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
12.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 6 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+3
12.2%
Tyler Vitt run for 3 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q1 11:56
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+1
12.2%
Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
12.2%
Tyler Vitt run for 6 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 4
OPP 39
0
12.2%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:56
3RD & 4
OPP 39
0
12.2%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Keenen Brown, broken up by Okon GodwinSimilar
Q1 11:56
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
12.1%
Clayton Stewart punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
12.8%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the AppSt 21Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-5
12.8%
Zac Thomas sacked by Frankie Griffin for a loss of 5 yards to the AppSt 16Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 14
OWN 16
0
12.9%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Darrynton EvansSimilar
Q1 8:35
4TH & 14
OWN 16
-5
13.0%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 11Similar
Q1 8:35
4TH & 19
OWN 11
0
13.0%
Clayton Howell punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5DOWNS
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
13.7%
Caleb Twyford run for 7 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+7
13.8%
Tyler Vitt run for 7 yds to the AppSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
13.9%
Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd to the AppSt 32Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 9
OPP 32
0
13.9%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Caleb TwyfordSimilar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+2
13.7%
Caleb Twyford run for 2 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q1 7:12
4TH & 7
OPP 30
0
13.5%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 6:0186% → 88%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
13.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Henry Pearson for 5 yds to the AppSt 35Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
13.5%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+4
13.7%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, Defensive offside (Frankie Griffin) to the AppSt 39Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+15
13.4%
Zac Thomas run for 15 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
13.3%
Zac Thomas run for 2 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+4
13.3%
Darrynton Evans run for 4 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+7
13.4%
Zac Thomas run for 7 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
13.3%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+1
13.3%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 1 yd to the TexSt 32Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+2
13.4%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Marcus Williams Jr. for 2 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q1 5:15
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+24
13.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 24 yds to the TexSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
13.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the TexSt 4Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
14.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 3 yds to the TexSt 1Similar
Q2 14:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
11.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Collin Reed for 1 yd for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
13.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 5 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 5
OPP 43
0
13.4%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Mason Hays, broken up by Tae HayesSimilar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 5
OPP 43
-10
13.4%
Tyler Vitt sacked by Okon Godwin for a loss of 10 yards to the TexSt 47Similar
Q2 14:05
4TH & 15
OWN 47
0
12.9%
Clayton Stewart punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
12.1%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for no gain Corey Sutton fumbled, forced by Hal Vinson,Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-10
12.1%
Thomas, Zac PASS COMPLETE IN THE FLAT pass complete to Virgil, Jalen for 5 yards to the APP26, out-of-bounds (Taylor, Anthony J;Newman,Josh), PENALTY APP pass interference 10 yards to the APP11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 19
OWN 11
+10
12.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Dominique Heath for 10 yds to the AppSt 21Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+3
12.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Darrynton Evans for 3 yds to the AppSt 24Similar
Q2 12:41
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
12.4%
Clayton Howell punt for 34 yds, downed at the TexSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9INT
10 plays · 54 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+24
13.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Tyler Watts for 9 yds to the TEXSTATE 49 for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jordan Fehr) to the AppSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
13.4%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 5 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+1
13.4%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the AppSt 28Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+7
13.2%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 7 yds to the AppSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
13.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 5 yds to the AppSt 16Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+14
13.4%
Vitt,Tyler pass incomplete to White,Hutch, PENALTY APP pass interference (Thomas, Josh) 14 yards to the APP2, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
13.4%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Jalen Momerelle) to the AppSt 7Similar
Q2 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
13.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 2 yds to the AppSt 5Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
13.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 1 yd to the AppSt 4Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
13.2%
Tyler Vitt pass intercepted Noel Cook return for 2 yds to the AppSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10TD
13 plays · 95 yds · 5:5188% → 95%
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
12.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 1 yd to the AppSt 6Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+8
12.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 8 yds to the AppSt 14Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+10
12.4%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 10 yds to the AppSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
12.1%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 5 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+5
12.0%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the AppSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
12.0%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for no gain to the AppSt 34Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+16
12.0%
Zac Thomas run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
50
-1
11.5%
Darrynton Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 49Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+5
11.5%
Zac Thomas run for 5 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+20
11.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 20 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
11.4%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Corey Sutton, broken up by Jarron MorrisSimilar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+25
11.5%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Darrynton Evans for 25 yds to the TexSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.5%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
7.7%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Tyler Watts for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 31Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+4
7.5%
Caleb Twyford run for 4 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12TD
3 plays · 79 yds · 0:1894% → 96%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
6.1%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Brad Absher, broken up by Ishmael DavisSimilar
Q3 14:36
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+79
4.3%
Darrynton Evans run for 79 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
4.2%
Tyler Vitt run for 2 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 8
OPP 42
-6
4.0%
Tyler Watts run for a loss of 6 yards to the AppSt 48 Tyler Watts fumbled, recovered by TexSt Tyler VittSimilar
Q3 14:26
3RD & 14
OPP 48
+3
3.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 3 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q3 14:26
4TH & 11
OPP 45
0
3.9%
Clayton Stewart punt for 44 yds, downed at the AppSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
3.2%
Zac Thomas run for 3 yds to the AppSt 4Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 7
OWN 4
0
3.2%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas Hennigan, broken up by Jarron MorrisSimilar
Q3 12:37
3RD & 7
OWN 4
+1
3.3%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 1 yd to the AppSt 5Similar
Q3 12:37
4TH & 6
OWN 5
0
3.5%
Clayton Howell punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the AppSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15TD
7 plays · 43 yds · 3:154% → 8%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
3.8%
Caleb Twyford run for 11 yds to the AppSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
3.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 15 yds to the AppSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
3.9%
Tyler Vitt run for 8 yds to the AppSt 9Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+1
3.6%
Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd to the AppSt 8Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 1
OPP 8
-2
3.6%
Keenen Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 10Similar
Q3 11:15
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+4
3.5%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the AppSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
7.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 6 yds for a TD (Chris Kessler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16FG
18 plays · 68 yds · 8:0596% → 98%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
4.1%
Darrynton Evans run for no gain to the AppSt 20Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
4.1%
Darrynton Evans run for no gain to the AppSt 20Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+10
4.3%
Zac Thomas run for 10 yds to the AppSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
4.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 11 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
4.0%
Zac Thomas run for 4 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+12
3.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 12 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
4.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 3 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
4.0%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Corey Sutton, broken up by Jalen SmithSimilar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+8
4.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 8 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
3.9%
Zac Thomas run for 6 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+3
3.8%
Darrynton Evans run for 3 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 1
OPP 23
-1
3.9%
Darrynton Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 24Similar
Q3 7:55
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+8
4.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Collin Reed for 8 yds to the TexSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
3.8%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Henry PearsonSimilar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+4
3.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Dominique Heath for 4 yds to the TexSt 12Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 12
0
1.8%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+29
1.9%
Chandler Staton 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:003% → 2%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
2.5%
Caleb Twyford run for 2 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-3
2.5%
Caleb Twyford run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 40Similar
Q4 14:42
3RD & 11
OWN 40
0
2.3%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Keenen Brown, broken up by Austin ExfordSimilar
Q4 14:42
4TH & 11
OWN 40
+6
2.3%
Clayton Stewart punt for 39 yds , Thomas Hennigan returns for 6 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
1.7%
Camerun Peoples run for 4 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
1.7%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Mock AdamsSimilar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 6
OWN 31
-1
1.7%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Henry Pearson for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 30Similar
Q4 12:57
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
1.8%
Clayton Howell punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19DOWNS
13 plays · 47 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
1.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Elijah Rogers for 11 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
1.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 12 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
1.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Robert Brown Jr. for 3 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+15
2.0%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 15 yds to the AppSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
2.1%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Keenen BrownSimilar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+1
2.1%
Tyler Vitt run for 1 yd to the AppSt 33Similar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 9
OPP 33
0
2.0%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Anthony J. TaylorSimilar
Q4 11:22
4TH & 9
OPP 33
+9
2.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Anthony J. Taylor for 9 yds to the AppSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
2.2%
Tyler Vitt run for 5 yds to the AppSt 19 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (Anthony D. Taylor) to the AppSt 29Similar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 15
OPP 29
0
2.1%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Keenen BrownSimilar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 15
OPP 29
0
2.1%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Tyler WattsSimilar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 15
OPP 29
+6
2.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Anthony J. Taylor for 6 yds to the AppSt 23Similar
Q4 11:22
4TH & 9
OPP 23
-5
2.0%
Tyler Vitt sacked by Chris Willis for a loss of 5 yards to the AppSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 4:3399% → 100%
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
0.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Clifton Duck for 5 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+27
0.9%
Camerun Peoples run for 27 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
0.8%
Camerun Peoples run for 4 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-2
0.8%
Camerun Peoples run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 38Similar
Q4 6:34
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+13
0.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 13 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
0.8%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Jalen VirgilSimilar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+3
0.8%
DeMarcus Harper run for 3 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+13
0.4%
Zac Thomas run for 13 yds to the TexSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
0.1%
Camerun Peoples run for 9 yds for a TD APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (Henry Pearson) to the TexSt 9 (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21FUMBLE
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
0.1%
Jaylen Gipson run for no gain to the TexSt 35Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
0.1%
Jaylen Gipson run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 36 Jaylen Gipson fumbled, recovered by AppSt MyQuon StoutSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
0.1%
DeMarcus Harper run for 2 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+2
0.1%
DeMarcus Harper run for 2 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:20
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
-5.9
TD · Q3 8:00
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 6 yds for a TD (Chris Kessler KICK)
+4.4
TD · Q2 14:14
Zac Thomas pass complete to Collin Reed for 1 yd for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
-2.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com