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TROY

Troy 10 at App State 21

APP
2018 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2018 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
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Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:23 · Sawyer Smith pass incomplete, broken up by Tae Hayes
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 123Pregame prior+9.5Home team on offense+11.5Garbage-time factor+1.0Score differential+4.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.5Time remaining+1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:42: Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 15 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +4.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:09: Zac Thomas run for 10 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +6.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 7:51: Tyler Sumpter 26 yd FG GOOD — TROY win probability +4.4 pts (now 14%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:21: Sawyer Smith pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 21 yds for a TD TROY Penalty, false start (Austin Stidham) to the AppSt 8 (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +9.0 pts (now 20%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:46: DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the Troy 17 — APP win probability +4.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 8 of 10TROY made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00TROY 4th & 10 at TROY 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:14APP 4th & 5 at TROY 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.8%
    80% to make
    Punt
    76.4%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:14TROY 4th & 13 at TROY 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:44TROY 4th & 3 at TROY 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.2%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:51TROY 4th & 7 at APP 9, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−3.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:46APP 4th & 25 at APP 13, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−2.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:00TROY 4th & 14 at APP 30, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−0.9
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    10.4%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00APP 4th & 7 at APP 28, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:53TROY 4th & 10 at TROY 37, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:50APP 4th & 12 at APP 16, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%−1.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:15APP 4th & 14 at APP 11, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−2.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:23TROY 4th & 2 at APP 42, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    14.6%−1.9
    30% to make
    Punt
    15.2%−1.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:23APP 4th & 7 at APP 45, up 11
    Close callWent for it · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.3%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    86.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:50APP 4th & 3 at APP 48, up 11
    Close callPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:55TROY 4th & 3 at TROY 12, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00APP 4th & 1 at TROY 35, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    87.3%−2.0
    45% to make
    Punt
    86.7%−2.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00APP 4th & 22 at TROY 42, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−1.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    88.6%−0.6
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:46TROY 4th & 7 at TROY 16, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:22APP 4th & 25 at APP 29, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−1.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.9%
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:32TROY 4th & 20 at TROY 34, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%−0.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TROY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 5:50APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:42APP Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:09APP Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:21TROY Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
76.9%
TROY Penalty, false start (Kirk Kelley) to the Troy 20Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-5
76.9%
Sawyer Smith sacked by Elijah Diarrassouba for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+3
76.9%
Sawyer Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 18Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+7
76.9%
B.J. Smith run for 7 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+46
76.9%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 43 yds , Clifton Duck returns for 46 yds to the Troy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2MISSED FG
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4177% → 76%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
76.7%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-1
76.7%
Darrynton Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 23Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 11
OPP 23
+1
76.6%
Zac Thomas run for 1 yd to the Troy 22Similar
Q1 12:55
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+5
76.5%
TROY Penalty, Defensive offside (Marcus Webb) to the Troy 17Similar
Q1 11:14
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+35
76.2%
Chandler Staton 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
76.0%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Jabir Daughtry-Frye for 11 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
75.9%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete, broken up by Anthony FlorySimilar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+1
76.0%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 32Similar
Q1 11:14
3RD & 9
OWN 32
-4
76.1%
Sawyer Smith sacked by Demetrius Taylor for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 28Similar
Q1 11:14
4TH & 13
OWN 28
0
76.2%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 70 yds, downed at the AppSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4TD
7 plays · 98 yds · 3:2376% → 77%
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+58
75.5%
Darrynton Evans run for 58 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
76.1%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Marcus Williams Jr. for 8 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+23
76.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 23 yds to the Troy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
76.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 1 yd to the Troy 8Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
76.2%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (Chandler Greer) to the Troy 13Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
-3
76.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 16Similar
Q1 5:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
+16
77.4%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 16 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5FUMBLE
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
77.2%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 23Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+10
77.2%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Sidney Davis for 10 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
77.0%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Sidney Davis for 4 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+2
76.8%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+1
76.9%
Sawyer Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 40Similar
Q1 5:44
4TH & 3
OWN 40
+9
77.2%
Tyler Sumpter pass complete to Blace Brown for 9 yds Blace Brown fumbled, forced by Caleb Spurlin, recovered by AppSt Caleb Spurlin , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6TD
11 plays · 50 yds · 4:0878% → 83%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
50
0
78.1%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 10
50
+2
78.0%
Zac Thomas run for 2 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+9
77.7%
Zac Thomas run for 9 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
78.2%
Darrynton Evans run for 5 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 5
OPP 34
0
78.3%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+6
78.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Henry Pearson for 6 yds to the Troy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
78.3%
Darrynton Evans run for 4 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
78.3%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Collin ReedSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+9
77.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 9 yds to the Troy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
78.3%
Darrynton Evans run for no gain to the Troy 15Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
83.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 15 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
81.2%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 10 yds Deondre Douglas fumbled, forced by Austin Exford, recovered by AppSt Anthony FlorySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8TD
6 plays · 36 yds · 2:0983% → 90%
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
83.1%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 9 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 1
OPP 27
0
83.1%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+1
82.8%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 1 yd to the Troy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
83.1%
Thomas, Zac pass incomplete to Sutton, Corey (Jones, Marcus), PENALTY TROY pass interference (Jones, Marcus) 15 yards to the TROY11, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
83.1%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the Troy 10Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+10
89.9%
Zac Thomas run for 10 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 3:0911% → 14%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
88.8%
B.J. Smith run for 6 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+18
88.7%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 18 yds to the AppSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
88.5%
Smith, Sawyer pass incomplete to Douglas, D., PENALTY APP pass interference (Hayes, Tae) 13 yards to the APP24, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
88.0%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 12 yds to the AppSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
88.0%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Sidney Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 14Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+2
88.3%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the AppSt 12Similar
Q2 8:46
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+8
90.0%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 8 yds to the AppSt 4Similar
Q2 8:46
4TH & 2
OPP 4
-5
89.8%
TROY Penalty, false start (J.L. Gaston) to the AppSt 9Similar
Q2 7:51
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+26
85.6%
Tyler Sumpter 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · -15 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
87.7%
Darrynton Evans run for 3 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 7
OWN 31
-10
87.6%
Thomas, Zac pass incomplete, PENALTY APP holding (Greer, Chandler) 10 yards to the APP21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 17
OWN 21
+6
87.5%
Darrynton Evans run for 6 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 11
OWN 27
-14
87.4%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-14 Yards) to the AppSt 13Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 25
OWN 13
0
87.7%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Malik WilliamsSimilar
Q2 7:46
4TH & 25
OWN 13
+3
87.3%
Clayton Howell punt for 54 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 3 yds to the Troy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11MISSED FG
15 plays · 34 yds · 4:1514% → 12%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
86.5%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Jabir Daughtry-Frye for 4 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
86.4%
B.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
85.9%
Sawyer Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
86.1%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Sidney DavisSimilar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-4
86.5%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 44Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 14
OWN 44
+16
87.1%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 16 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
85.6%
DK Billingsley run for 5 yds to the AppSt 35Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
85.1%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Luke WhittemoreSimilar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+4
85.7%
DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
Q2 6:15
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+5
85.7%
Smith, Sawyer rush for 1 yard to the APP30 (Taylor, D.), PENALTY APP offside (Cook, Noel) 5 yards to the APP26, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
85.1%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the AppSt 25Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 9
OPP 25
0
85.2%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Sidney Davis, broken up by Akeem Davis-GaitherSimilar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 9
OPP 25
-5
85.9%
TROY Penalty, delay of game (Sawyer Smith) to the AppSt 30Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 14
OPP 30
0
86.7%
Sawyer Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 14
OPP 30
+46
88.3%
Tyler Sumpter 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12FUMBLE
7 plays · 30 yds · 1:2889% → 90%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
89.4%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the AppSt 30Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+4
89.4%
Darrynton Evans run for 4 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+16
89.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
50
0
90.3%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas HenniganSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
50
0
90.2%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Corey Sutton, broken up by Terence DunlapSimilar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 10
50
+7
89.9%
Zac Thomas run for 7 yds to the Troy 41 Zac Thomas fumbled, recovered by Troy Blace BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13INT
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:0612% → 9%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+18
88.2%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 18 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+23
91.4%
Sawyer Smith pass intercepted Thomas Hennigan return for 23 yds to the AppSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Darrynton Evans for 3 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
88.8%
Darrynton Evans run for no gain to the AppSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
88.4%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Corey Sutton, broken up by Melvin TyusSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
87.9%
Clayton Howell punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Troy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
89.0%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Deondre Douglas, broken up by Josh ThomasSimilar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
89.2%
B.J. Smith run for no gain to the Troy 37Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
89.7%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Richard Hallman, broken up by Shemar Jean-CharlesSimilar
Q3 13:53
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
89.8%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Clifton Duck at the AppSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0092% → 90%
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
92.1%
Zac Thomas run for 3 yds to the AppSt 21Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 7
OWN 21
-9
92.1%
Zac Thomas sacked by Hunter Reese for a loss of 9 yards to the AppSt 12Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 16
OWN 12
+4
90.8%
Darrynton Evans run for 4 yds to the AppSt 16Similar
Q3 12:50
4TH & 12
OWN 16
0
90.4%
Clayton Howell punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the AppSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17TD
6 plays · 49 yds · 1:3111% → 20%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
89.2%
B.J. Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 11
50
+18
89.8%
B.J. Smith run for 18 yds to the AppSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
88.6%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Luke WhittemoreSimilar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
88.8%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+8
89.5%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Sidney Davis for 8 yds to the AppSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
80.5%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 21 yds for a TD TROY Penalty, false start (Austin Stidham) to the AppSt 8 (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0085% → 83%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
84.5%
Evans, D. rush for 2 yards to the APP17 (Folsom, Tron), PENALTY APP personal foul (Hunter, Baer) 7 yards to the APP8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 17
OWN 8
-1
84.4%
Darrynton Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 7Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 18
OWN 7
-1
84.3%
Zac Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 6Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 19
OWN 6
+5
83.7%
Zac Thomas run for 5 yds to the AppSt 11Similar
Q3 9:15
4TH & 14
OWN 11
+1
83.2%
Clayton Howell punt for 40 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2118% → 15%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
50
-1
82.1%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Deondre Douglas for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 49Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 11
OWN 49
0
82.9%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Deondre Douglas, broken up by MyQuon StoutSimilar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+9
83.5%
Sawyer Smith run for 9 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q3 5:23
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
85.5%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete, broken up by Tae HayesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0088% → 86%
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
87.9%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas Hennigan, broken up by Marcus JonesSimilar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
87.7%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
87.1%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Malik WilliamsSimilar
Q3 4:23
4TH & 7
OWN 45
+5
86.2%
D'Marco Jackson run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
50
0
84.8%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Sidney DavisSimilar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 10
50
0
85.3%
Sawyer Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 10
50
0
86.0%
Sawyer Smith pass intercepted Clifton Duck return for no gain to the 50 yard line TROY Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
87.9%
Darrynton Evans run for no gain to the AppSt 41Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+9
87.7%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 1
50
-2
87.4%
Darrynton Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 48Similar
Q3 3:50
4TH & 3
OWN 48
+47
86.6%
Clayton Howell punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the APPALCHAN 10 TROY Penalty, delay of game (Marcus Jones) to the Troy 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
89.1%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 7Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+4
89.3%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the Troy 11Similar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 4
OWN 11
+1
89.3%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 12Similar
Q3 1:55
4TH & 3
OWN 12
0
89.6%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 75 yds, downed at the AppSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 24PUNT
17 plays · 45 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+16
89.1%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 16 yds to the AppSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
89.2%
Zac Thomas run for 5 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 34
-5
89.3%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (Baer Hunter) to the AppSt 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+4
89.1%
Darrynton Evans run for 4 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+8
88.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Dominique Heath for 8 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
90.0%
Darrynton Evans run for 25 yds to the APPALCHAN 34 for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Corey Sutton) to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
90.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 7 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+2
90.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 35
0
89.9%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Collin ReedSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+5
89.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
90.3%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (Baer Hunter) to the Troy 35Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+1
90.1%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the Troy 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 34
+7
90.1%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 7 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 27
-10
89.9%
Thomas, Zac pass complete to Williams, Malik for 12 yards to the TROY15, out-of-bounds (Murray, Tyler), PENALTY APP holding (Garrison, Cole) 10 yards to the TROY37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 17
OPP 37
0
89.5%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Darrynton Evans for no gain to the Troy 37Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 17
OPP 37
-5
88.7%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Troy 42Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 22
OPP 42
+1
88.7%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 32 yds , Terence Dunlap returns for 1 yd to the Troy 13 Terence Dunlap fumbled, recovered by Troy Marcus JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
93.1%
DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the Troy 17Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 6
OWN 17
-1
93.1%
DK Billingsley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 16Similar
Q4 6:46
3RD & 7
OWN 16
0
93.5%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q4 6:46
4TH & 7
OWN 16
0
93.8%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · -15 yds · 0:1895% → 95%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
94.8%
Thomas, Zac rush for 5 yards to the APP49 (Tyus, Melvin;Murray, Tyler), PENALTY APP holding (Reed, Collin) 10 yards to the APP34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 20
OWN 34
-4
94.0%
Darrynton Evans run for a loss of 4 yards to the AppSt 30Similar
Q4 5:26
2ND & 24
OWN 30
0
94.7%
Darrynton Evans run for no gain to the AppSt 30Similar
Q4 5:22
3RD & 24
OWN 30
-1
95.7%
Zac Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 29Similar
Q4 5:22
4TH & 25
OWN 29
0
95.3%
Clayton Howell punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Troy 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 27DOWNS
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
95.7%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Richard Hallman for 7 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+10
95.2%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to B.J. Smith for 10 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-14
95.2%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete, broken up by Jordan Fehr TROY Penalty, intentional grounding (Sawyer Smith) to the Troy 30Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 24
OWN 30
-6
95.9%
Sawyer Smith sacked by Chris Willis for a loss of 6 yards to the Troy 24Similar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 30
OWN 24
+5
96.1%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Jabir Daughtry-Frye for 5 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q4 4:32
4TH & 25
OWN 29
+5
96.2%
Smith, Sawyer pass incomplete to Whittemore, L., PENALTY APP offside (Godwin, Okon) 5 yards to the TROY34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:32
4TH & 20
OWN 34
0
96.2%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to B.J. SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 28END OF GAME
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
97.4%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+7
97.4%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 7 yds to the Troy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
97.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 25Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 11
OPP 25
-2
97.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:21
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 21 yds for a TD TROY Penalty, false start (Austin Stidham) to the AppSt 8 (Tyler Sumpter KICK)
-9
TD · Q2 11:09
Zac Thomas run for 10 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)
+6.7
TD · Q2 13:42
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 15 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)
+4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com