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TXST

Texas State 7 at Troy 12

TROY
2018 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2018 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:59 · Clayton Stewart punt for 30 yds, downed at the Troy 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 82Pregame prior+28.3Home team on offense+4.5Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.2Score differential+2.4Blowout margin+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q4 11:46: Tyler Sumpter 27 yd FG GOOD — TROY win probability +5.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 9:10: Anthony D. Taylor run for 3 yds for a TD (Chris Kessler KICK) — TXST win probability +24.2 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 9:10: James Sherman kickoff for 58 yds , Jabir Daughtry-Frye return for 30 yds to the Troy 37 — TROY win probability +8.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 9:10: Sawyer Smith pass incomplete — TROY win probability +9.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:21: B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 30 — TROY win probability +10.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 8 of 14TXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00TXST 4th & 3 at TXST 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:09TROY 4th & 19 at TXST 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    90.3%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:33TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 25, up 3
    Close callPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:45TROY 4th & 9 at TXST 39, up 3
    Close callPunted · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    88.9%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:37TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:20TROY 4th & 5 at TXST 30, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.6%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    87.3%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:51TROY 4th & 9 at TXST 25, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    86.3%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:46TROY 4th & 16 at TXST 38, up 9
    Close callPunted · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    89.0%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:59TXST 4th & 8 at TROY 37, down 9
    Close callPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    11.0%−0.2
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:44TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 13, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%−0.4
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:06TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 46, up 9
    Close callPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.9%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00TROY 4th & 9 at TROY 33, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:25TXST 4th & 2 at TXST 45, down 9
    Close callPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:13TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 31, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−0.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:02TXST 4th & 7 at TXST 31, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−1.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:37TROY 4th & 9 at TROY 34, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−1.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:12TROY 4th & 1 at TXST 16, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    87.0%−1.6
    81% to make
    Punt
    81.9%−6.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:46TROY 4th & 5 at TXST 10, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    84.0%−5.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:10TROY 4th & 7 at TXST 39, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    80.0%−1.7
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%−1.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:58TXST 4th & 19 at TXST 25, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−3.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q4 9:10TXST Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
92.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 7 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 22
0
92.4%
Robert Brown Jr. run for no gain to the TexSt 22Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 22
0
92.4%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Mason HaysSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 22
0
92.4%
Clayton Stewart punt for 39 yds, downed at the Troy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2FG
12 plays · 42 yds · 4:3392% → 91%
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
92.1%
Sawyer Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+9
92.1%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Sidney Davis for 9 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+16
92.1%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Sidney Davis for 16 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
92.1%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+6
92.1%
B.J. Smith run for 6 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
92.1%
Sawyer Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+1
92.1%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the TexSt 25Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+16
92.1%
B.J. Smith run for 16 yds to the TexSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
92.1%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Sidney Davis for 2 yds to the TexSt 7Similar
Q1 13:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
92.1%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the TexSt 5Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-14
92.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 14 yards to the TexSt 19 TEAM fumbled,Similar
Q1 9:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 19
+36
91.0%
Tyler Sumpter 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3INT
9 plays · 63 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
91.1%
Caleb Twyford run for 8 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
91.0%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Keenen BrownSimilar
Q1 9:09
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
91.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 7 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
91.0%
Caleb Twyford run for 15 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
90.9%
Tyler Vitt run for 1 yd to the Troy 44Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+35
90.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 35 yds to the Troy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
90.8%
Caleb Twyford run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 12Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+15
90.8%
Tyler Vitt pass intercepted Cedarius Rookard return for 15 yds to the Troy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
90.3%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 17Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+4
90.3%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q1 6:33
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+4
90.2%
Sidney Davis run for 4 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q1 6:33
4TH & 1
OWN 25
0
90.1%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5INT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
90.1%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Tyler Watts, broken up by Carlton MartialSimilar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-1
90.1%
Anthony D. Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 19Similar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+15
90.3%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 15 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
90.0%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+11
90.0%
Tyler Vitt pass intercepted Cedarius Rookard return for 11 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5590% → 89%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
90.0%
Sawyer Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+1
90.0%
Sawyer Smith run for 1 yd to the TexSt 39Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 9
OPP 39
0
89.8%
Sawyer Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:45
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
89.1%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
89.2%
Caleb Twyford run for no gain to the TexSt 9Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
89.2%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Keenen Brown, broken up by Kyler KnudsenSimilar
Q1 2:37
3RD & 10
OWN 9
0
89.4%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Caleb Twyford, broken up by Travon MathisSimilar
Q1 2:37
4TH & 10
OWN 9
+5
89.5%
Stewart,Clayton punt 34 yards to the TXST43, Dunlap, Terence return to the TXST43, PENALTY TROY roughing the kicker (Knudsen, Kyler) 5 yards to the TXST14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:37
4TH & 5
OWN 14
+12
89.5%
Clayton Stewart punt for 55 yds , Terence Dunlap returns for 12 yds to the Troy 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8FG
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:1589% → 89%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
89.1%
B.J. Smith run for 12 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
89.3%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 15
50
0
88.9%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Sidney DavisSimilar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 15
50
+12
88.8%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Sidney Davis for 12 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+3
89.1%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 3 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
89.0%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to B.J. Smith, broken up by Caeveon PattonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
88.9%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 5 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
88.7%
B.J. Smith run for no gain to the TexSt 30Similar
Q2 13:20
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+47
89.4%
Tyler Sumpter 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9INT
9 plays · 33 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.6%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Hutch White, broken up by Melvin TyusSimilar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
88.7%
Caleb Twyford run for no gain to the TexSt 25Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+18
88.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 18 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-11
88.1%
Caleb Twyford run for a loss of 11 yards to the TexSt 32Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 21
OWN 32
+18
88.7%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Javen Banks for 18 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 3
50
+13
87.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Javen Banks for 13 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
87.7%
Tyler Vitt run for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 42 Tyler Vitt fumbled, recovered by TexStSimilar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 15
OPP 42
+15
88.2%
Tyler Vitt pass intercepted Hunter Reese return for 15 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10FG
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:2089% → 89%
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
89.4%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 12 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
89.4%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete, broken up by Bryan London IISimilar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+1
89.4%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the TexSt 25Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 9
OPP 25
0
89.1%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to B.J. Smith, broken up by Nikolas DanielsSimilar
Q2 8:51
4TH & 9
OPP 25
+42
89.1%
Tyler Sumpter 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11INT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.4%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 4 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
89.1%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 4 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
89.2%
Tyler Vitt pass intercepted Tyler Murray return for 5 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
90.1%
Marcus Jones run for 1 yd to the TexSt 31Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+1
90.0%
Sawyer Smith run for 1 yd to the TexSt 30Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 8
OPP 30
-8
89.7%
Sawyer Smith sacked by Ishmael Davis for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 38Similar
Q2 7:46
4TH & 16
OPP 38
0
88.8%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 43 yds · 1:3011% → 12%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+41
89.0%
Caleb Twyford run for 41 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
87.9%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the Troy 38Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+1
88.0%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the Troy 37Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 8
OPP 37
0
88.1%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:59
4TH & 8
OPP 37
0
88.3%
Clayton Stewart punt for 30 yds, downed at the Troy 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
88.2%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Marcus Jones for no gain to the Troy 7Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+6
88.1%
B.J. Smith run for 6 yds to the Troy 13Similar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 4
OWN 13
0
87.9%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q2 3:44
4TH & 4
OWN 13
0
87.6%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15FUMBLE
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:5513% → 13%
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
87.3%
Caleb Twyford run for 5 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+6
87.1%
Caleb Twyford run for 6 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
86.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 4 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+4
86.6%
Caleb Twyford run for 4 yds to the Troy 37 Caleb Twyford fumbled, forced by Cedarius Rookard, recovered by Troy Tyler MurraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
88.7%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+2
89.0%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Bret Clark for 2 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+4
88.5%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Sidney Davis for 4 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
88.2%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0012% → 13%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
87.8%
TROY Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
87.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
88.6%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 1 yd to the Troy 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+5
88.5%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 5 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 38
-5
88.7%
TROY Penalty, false start (Dylan Bradshaw) to the Troy 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
88.1%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Sidney DavisSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
87.6%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 30 yds, downed at the TexSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
87.3%
Tyler Vitt run for 7 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 3
OWN 44
-5
86.7%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Jalen Momerelle) to the TexSt 39Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+1
87.1%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the TexSt 40Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+5
87.4%
Tyler Vitt run for 5 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q3 13:25
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
87.7%
Clayton Stewart punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Terence Dunlap at the Troy 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
88.6%
Sawyer Smith run for 4 yds to the Troy 18Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 6
OWN 18
0
88.6%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete, broken up by Bryan London IISimilar
Q3 11:13
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+7
88.1%
Sawyer Smith run for 7 yds to the Troy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
88.7%
B.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
88.9%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q3 11:13
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-1
88.5%
Sawyer Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 31Similar
Q3 11:13
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
88.0%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 41 yds, downed at the TexSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
88.4%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
88.4%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Hutch WhiteSimilar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+1
89.0%
Tyler Vitt run for 1 yd to the TexSt 31Similar
Q3 8:02
4TH & 7
OWN 31
+10
89.3%
Clayton Stewart punt for 46 yds , Terence Dunlap returns for 10 yds to the Troy 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
89.0%
B.J. Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 31Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+3
88.7%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
88.5%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Luke WhittemoreSimilar
Q3 6:37
4TH & 9
OWN 34
+3
87.8%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 50 yds , Hutch White returns for 3 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
88.6%
Tyler Vitt pass intercepted Blace Brown return for no gain to the Troy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24FG
15 plays · 51 yds · 8:1689% → 94%
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
89.4%
DK Billingsley run for 5 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+8
89.6%
DK Billingsley run for 8 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
89.8%
B.J. Smith run for 12 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
89.8%
B.J. Smith run for 8 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+1
90.0%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the TexSt 27Similar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+2
89.4%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
90.0%
Sawyer Smith run for 4 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+1
90.0%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Bret Clark for 1 yd to the TexSt 20Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+4
89.7%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+1
88.3%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the TexSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
89.6%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Deondre Douglas for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 16Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+2
89.5%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the TexSt 14Similar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+4
88.9%
DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the TexSt 10Similar
Q4 11:46
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+27
94.4%
Tyler Sumpter 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:3610% → 35%
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
90.5%
Caleb Twyford run for 8 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
90.2%
Anthony D. Taylor run for no gain to the TexSt 43Similar
Q4 11:46
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
90.3%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 3 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
90.1%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 8 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+5
89.5%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 5 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+38
89.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Mason Hays for 38 yds to the Troy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
65.5%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 3 yds for a TD (Chris Kessler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
82.8%
Sawyer Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
82.3%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 38Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+20
81.7%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Richard Hallman for 20 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
84.8%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to DK Billingsley for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 43Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 11
OPP 43
0
84.3%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Bret Clark, broken up by Jarron MorrisSimilar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 11
OPP 43
+4
82.6%
DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q4 9:10
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
81.9%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 25 yds, downed at the TexSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:0023% → 21%
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
76.7%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 5 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+2
76.5%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 3
OWN 21
-5
77.8%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Morgan Moore) to the TexSt 16Similar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+18
78.5%
Tyler Vitt run for 18 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
74.6%
Anthony D. Taylor run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 15
OWN 29
0
77.2%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Hutch White, broken up by Tyler MurraySimilar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 15
OWN 29
-4
78.4%
Tyler Vitt sacked by Jarvis Hayes and Travis Sailo for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 25Similar
Q4 5:58
4TH & 19
OWN 25
0
79.3%
Clayton Stewart punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Terence Dunlap at the Troy 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 28END OF GAME
9 plays · 15 yds · 1:4989% → 96%
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
89.2%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 7
OWN 30
-1
89.2%
B.J. Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 29Similar
Q4 1:27
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+11
92.9%
Sawyer Smith run for 11 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
94.5%
Sawyer Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+2
96.1%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 6
OWN 44
-2
96.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:10
Anthony D. Taylor run for 3 yds for a TD (Chris Kessler KICK)
-24.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:21
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 30
+10
KEY PLAY · Q4 9:10
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete
+9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com