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USA

South Alabama 38 at Louisiana 48

UL
2018 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2018 · Cajun Field
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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Cole Garvin run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 8 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 37Pregame prior+33.2Home team on offense+2.4Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:20: Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 44 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK) — UL win probability +9.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:51: Tra Minter run for 5 yds for a TD (Gavin Patterson KICK) — USA win probability +13.9 pts (now 30%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:12: Elijah Mitchell run for 45 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK) — UL win probability +8.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:13: Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK) — UL win probability +7.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:25: Kawaan Baker run for 13 yds for a TD (Gavin Patterson KICK) — USA win probability +7.2 pts (now 12%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 1 of 4USA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 10:35UL 4th & 6 at USA 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.9%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    88.4%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:15USA 4th & 1 at USA 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:15USA 4th & 2 at UL 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    10.8%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    10.7%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:41USA 4th & 1 at UL 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    11.4%−0.5
    75% to make
    Punt
    10.0%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00USA 4th & 1 at UL 9, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    11.6%−0.6
    89% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−2.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:17UL 4th & 3 at UL 41, up 3
    Close callPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:38USA 4th & 11 at UL 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    13.4%−3.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:38UL 4th & 2 at USA 24, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.7%−0.9
    68% to make
    Punt
    80.9%−5.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:04USA 4th & 12 at USA 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−1.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00USA 4th & 10 at USA 36, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:57UL 4th & 4 at UL 49, up 17
    Close callPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:12USA 4th & 2 at USA 29, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.6%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 6 of 6USA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:15UL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:02USA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:20UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:04UL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:11USA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:51USA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:12UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:13UL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:25USA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:12UL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 0:15USA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.3%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1FG
11 plays · 69 yds · 4:2591% → 90%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
90.8%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 17 yds to the LaLaf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
90.8%
Raymond Calais run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 49
0
90.8%
Elijah Mitchell run for no gain to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+15
90.8%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Elijah Mitchell for 15 yds to the SAlab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+18
90.8%
Earnest Patterson run for 18 yds to the SAlab 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
90.8%
Trey Ragas run for 11 yds to the SAlab 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
90.8%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd to the SAlab 6Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
90.8%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Matt Barnes for no gain to the SAlab 6Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
90.8%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Ryheem MaloneSimilar
Q1 10:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
89.8%
Kyle Pfau 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
89.7%
Cole Garvin pass intercepted Deuce Wallace return for 8 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3TD
3 plays · 28 yds · 1:1190% → 90%
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
89.9%
Raymond Calais run for 11 yds to the SAlab 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
89.9%
Raymond Calais run for no gain to the SAlab 17Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
90.3%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 17 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4TD
22 plays · 80 yds · 10:1310% → 15%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
89.9%
Tra Minter run for 2 yds to the SAlab 22Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+1
89.9%
Cole Garvin run for 1 yd to the SAlab 23Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+6
90.0%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 6 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q1 9:15
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+3
90.0%
Cole Garvin run for 3 yds to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
89.9%
Tra Minter run for 4 yds to the SAlab 36Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+4
89.8%
Kawaan Baker run for 4 yds to the SAlab 40Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+18
89.8%
Cole Garvin run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 43 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the LaLaf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
89.7%
Deonta Moore run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 7
OPP 39
-10
89.7%
Tra Minter run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 34 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q1 9:15
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+5
89.9%
Tra Minter run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
89.6%
Cole Garvin run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 22Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+2
89.6%
Deonta Moore run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 1
OPP 20
0
89.7%
Tra Minter run for no gain to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 17
OPP 49
+15
89.9%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Cade Sutherland for 15 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q1 1:41
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+2
88.5%
Cole Garvin run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
88.0%
Kawaan Baker run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 16Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+2
88.0%
Tra Minter run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 14Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+5
87.9%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 5 yds to the LaLaf 9Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+1
88.2%
Cole Garvin run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
84.8%
Kawaan Baker run for 8 yds for a TD (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:4586% → 85%
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
86.1%
Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+7
86.0%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Jalen Williams for 7 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q2 14:02
3RD & 2
OWN 42
-5
86.3%
LOUISIANA Penalty, false start (Jalen Williams) to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q2 14:02
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+4
85.9%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Chase Rogers for 4 yds to the LaLaf 41Similar
Q2 12:17
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
85.4%
Rhys Byrns punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6FG
18 plays · 55 yds · 7:3015% → 22%
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
85.1%
Tra Minter run for 4 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
85.0%
Tra Minter run for no gain to the SAlab 35Similar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+13
85.4%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 13 yds to the SAlab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
84.4%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 43Similar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+3
85.1%
Deonta Moore run for 3 yds to the SAlab 46Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 12
OWN 46
-14
84.9%
Kawaan Baker run for 1 yd to the SAlab 47 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, illegal block (Tra Minter) to the SAlab 32Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 26
OWN 32
+16
85.5%
Cole Garvin run for 16 yds to the SAlab 48Similar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+7
84.9%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Cade Sutherland for 7 yds to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q2 12:08
4TH & 3
OPP 45
+6
84.8%
Garvin, Cole slant pass incomplete to Baker, Kawaan (Solomon,Cameron), PENALTY LA pass interference (Chaiziere Malbrue) 6 yards to the LA39, 1ST DOWN USA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
84.2%
Cole Garvin run for 15 yds to the LaLaf 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
83.7%
Tra Minter run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 16Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 2
OPP 16
0
83.7%
Deonta Moore run for no gain to the LaLaf 16Similar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+3
84.2%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
83.7%
Deonta Moore run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 10Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 7
OPP 10
-10
83.7%
Minter, Tra rush around the left end for 4 yards to the LA6, PENALTY USA holding (Charite, Max) 10 yards to the LA20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 17
OPP 20
0
84.1%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Kawaan BakerSimilar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 17
OPP 20
+6
84.8%
Tra Minter run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 14Similar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 11
OPP 14
+31
78.5%
Gavin Patterson 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7TD
2 plays · 44 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
87.7%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 44 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8TD
8 plays · 54 yds · 2:1688% → 91%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+20
87.5%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Jalen Williams for 20 yds to the SAlab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+26
87.7%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Earnest Patterson for 26 yds to the SAlab 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
87.7%
Raymond Calais run for 4 yds to the SAlab 4Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
87.7%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds to the SAlab 2Similar
Q2 4:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
87.4%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, substitution infraction (1 Yards) to the SAlab 1Similar
Q2 2:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.1%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 1:539% → 15%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
90.9%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jamarius Way for 16 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
90.6%
Cole Garvin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+9
90.7%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jamarius Way for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 1
50
+5
90.0%
Tra Minter run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
89.8%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jamarius WaySimilar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
90.2%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Maurice Mayo for no gain to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+11
90.6%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 11 yds to the LaLaf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
89.5%
Cole Garvin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+6
89.5%
Carlos Davis run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+10
90.2%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jamarius Way for 10 yds to the LaLaf 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
89.7%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Kawaan BakerSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
89.8%
Cole Garvin run for no gain to the LaLaf 18Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+18
85.3%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jamarius Way for 18 yds for a TD (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
86.9%
Elijah Mitchell run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 4:0915% → 30%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
85.1%
Tywun Walters run for 2 yds to the SAlab 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+2
85.0%
Tra Minter run for 2 yds to the SAlab 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+32
85.2%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Tra Minter for 32 yds to the LaLaf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
82.8%
Tra Minter run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+6
82.8%
Tra Minter run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
82.8%
Carlos Davis run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 14Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+5
82.8%
Kawaan Baker run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 9Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+4
83.8%
Deonta Moore run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
69.8%
Tra Minter run for 5 yds for a TD (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12TD
4 plays · 53 yds · 0:3979% → 86%
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
78.6%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus Bradley, broken up by Chason MilnerSimilar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
78.1%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Elijah Mitchell for 8 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q3 10:12
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+45
86.4%
Elijah Mitchell run for 45 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0015% → 16%
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
84.6%
Tra Minter run for 4 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+3
84.1%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds to the SAlab 29 Tra Minter fumbled, forced by Tra'Vontae Booker, recovered by LaLaf Zi'Yon HillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
87.9%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Earnest PattersonSimilar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+2
87.8%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 8
OPP 27
0
87.2%
Andre Nunez pass intercepted, touchback. Darian Mills return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15FUMBLE
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
84.3%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jamarius Way, broken up by Michael Jacquet IIISimilar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
84.5%
Deonta Moore run for 3 yds to the SAlab 23Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+8
85.0%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jamarius Way for 8 yds to the SAlab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
83.9%
Cole Garvin run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 32 Cole Garvin fumbled, recovered by LaLaf Andre LandrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16FG
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3488% → 88%
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
88.4%
Levi Lewis run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 34Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 12
OPP 34
+8
88.2%
Raymond Calais run for 8 yds to the SAlab 26Similar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+2
87.7%
Raymond Calais run for 2 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
Q3 5:38
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+41
88.2%
Kyle Pfau 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:3414% → 12%
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
85.7%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-5
85.5%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 47Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 12
OWN 47
0
86.5%
Deonta Moore run for no gain to the SAlab 47Similar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 12
OWN 47
0
87.5%
Garvin, Cole deep sideline pass complete to Way, Jamarius for 53 yards to the LA0, clock 04:04, PENALTY USA illegal touching (Way, Jamarius) 0 yards to the USA47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:04
4TH & 12
OWN 47
+24
88.4%
Corliss Waitman punt for 47 yds , Ja'Marcus Bradley returns for 24 yds to the LaLaf 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:3688% → 97%
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
88.0%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Jalen Williams for 11 yds to the LaLaf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
89.1%
Elijah Mitchell run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 2
OWN 49
0
89.2%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Elijah MitchellSimilar
Q3 3:49
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+17
88.4%
Elijah Mitchell run for 12 yds to the ULLAFAYTTE 39 for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, sideline interference (5 Yards) to the SAlab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
89.5%
Elijah Mitchell run for 6 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+27
89.4%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Chase Rogers for 27 yds to the SAlab 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
89.4%
Trey Ragas run for no gain to the SAlab 1Similar
Q3 3:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
89.4%
Trey Ragas run for no gain to the SAlab 1Similar
Q3 0:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.5%
Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:134% → 4%
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
95.6%
Kawaan Baker run for 11 yds to the SAlab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
95.3%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jamarius WaySimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
95.3%
Cole Garvin run for no gain to the SAlab 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
95.7%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete, broken up by Bennie HigginsSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
95.8%
Corliss Waitman punt for 21 yds, downed at the LaLaf 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
97.1%
Andre Nunez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+2
97.1%
Raymond Calais run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q4 13:57
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+4
97.0%
Andre Nunez run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q4 13:57
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
96.7%
Rhys Byrns punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tra Minter at the SAlab 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21TD
12 plays · 87 yds · 4:544% → 12%
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
96.3%
Jalen Wayne run for 11 yds to the SAlab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
96.3%
Deonta Moore run for no gain to the SAlab 24Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+3
96.3%
Jalen Wayne run for 3 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+15
96.3%
Garvin, Cole pass incomplete to Wayne, Jalen (Johnson,Kendall), PENALTY LA roughing passer (Manac,Chauncey) 15 yards to the USA42, 1ST DOWN USA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+24
96.0%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Collier Smith for 24 yds to the LaLaf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
95.5%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+5
95.2%
Tra Minter run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+4
95.6%
Tra Minter run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+13
95.2%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 19 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, face mask (10 yards) (Bennie Higgins) to the LaLaf 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
95.2%
Cole Garvin run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 8Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
95.2%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 13Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
88.0%
Kawaan Baker run for 13 yds for a TD (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 22TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 5:1392% → 99%
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
92.1%
Elijah Mitchell run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+3
92.7%
Elijah Mitchell run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+17
92.8%
Elijah Mitchell run for 17 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
92.9%
Trey Ragas run for 13 yds to the SAlab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+20
93.0%
Trey Ragas run for 20 yds to the SAlab 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
93.0%
Trey Ragas run for 3 yds to the SAlab 4Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
93.0%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd to the SAlab 3Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.3%
Elijah Mitchell run for 3 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 23TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 1:572% → 7%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
98.1%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jamarius Way, broken up by Kamar GreenhouseSimilar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+9
98.1%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jordan McCray for 9 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 1
OWN 30
-1
98.0%
Deonta Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 29Similar
Q4 2:12
4TH & 2
OWN 29
+15
98.0%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jordan McCray for 15 yds to the SAlab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
97.9%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jamarius Way for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 4
50
+50
92.6%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 50 yds for a TD (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
96.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:51
Tra Minter run for 5 yds for a TD (Gavin Patterson KICK)
-13.9
TD · Q2 4:20
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 44 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)
+9
TD · Q3 10:12
Elijah Mitchell run for 45 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)
+8.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com