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ULM

UL Monroe 38 at South Alabama 10

USA
2018 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2018 · Ladd Peebles Stadium
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Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:45 · Corliss Waitman punt for 57 yds , Perry Carter Jr. returns for 8 yds to the LaMon 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 144Home team on offense−53.3Score differential−39.1Pregame prior−3.1Garbage-time factor−20.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−12.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 9:34: Gavin Patterson 31 yd FG GOOD — USA win probability +4.2 pts (now 40%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:24: Caleb Evans pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 29 yds for a TD (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +8.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:22: Caleb Evans pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for 5 yds for a TD (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +7.7 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:34: Marcus Green run for 10 yds for a TD (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +9.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:50: Caleb Evans run for 15 yds for a TD (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +4.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 8 of 10ULM made the numbers' call on 2 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00ULM 4th & 4 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:05USA 4th & 2 at USA 15, tied
    Close callPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:27ULM 4th & 4 at USA 4, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.1%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    60.9%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:27USA 4th & 1 at USA 27, up 4
    Close callPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:06ULM 4th & 9 at USA 29, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.5%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    62.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    61.3%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:34USA 4th & 7 at ULM 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    33.6%−4.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:01USA 4th & 7 at ULM 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.2%
    74% to make
    Punt
    26.7%−5.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00USA 4th & 13 at USA 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−1.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:34USA 4th & 4 at USA 43, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:50USA 4th & 6 at USA 29, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:57ULM 4th & 1 at USA 47, up 28
    Close callPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00USA 4th & 5 at USA 39, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:13ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 23, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:37USA 4th & 3 at ULM 38, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:12ULM 4th & 2 at USA 10, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%
    55% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:45USA 4th & 29 at USA 3, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    5% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ULM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:58USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:36ULM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:24ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:22ULM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:34ULM Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:50ULM Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
29.3%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+15
29.3%
Derrick Gore run for 15 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
29.3%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Josh PedersonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
29.3%
Derrick Gore run for 2 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+4
29.3%
Caleb Evans pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
50
0
29.3%
Jared Porter punt for 43 yds, downed at the SAlab 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-2
30.2%
Tra Minter run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 5Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 12
OWN 5
+1
30.2%
Tra Minter run for 1 yd to the SAlab 6Similar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 11
OWN 6
+9
30.1%
Tra Minter run for 9 yds to the SAlab 15Similar
Q1 13:05
4TH & 2
OWN 15
0
30.1%
Corliss Waitman punt for 49 yds , Marcus Green returns for no gain to the LaMon 34 Marcus Green fumbled, recovered by SAlab DJ DanielsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3TD
1 play · 34 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
33.0%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Jordan McCray for 34 yds for a TD (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4FG
8 plays · 74 yds · 3:3168% → 67%
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+58
32.4%
Marcus Green run for 58 yds to the SAlab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
31.8%
Caleb Evans run for 5 yds to the SAlab 15Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+9
31.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 9 yds to the SAlab 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
31.8%
Caleb Evans run for 5 yds to the SAlab 1Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
31.8%
Derrick Gore run for no gain to the SAlab 1Similar
Q1 10:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
32.0%
Derrick Gore run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 4Similar
Q1 7:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
33.5%
Craig Ford 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
33.7%
Tra Minter run for 5 yds to the SAlab 23Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 5
OWN 23
0
33.7%
Cephus Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+4
33.4%
Cephus Johnson run for 4 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q1 7:27
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
33.3%
Corliss Waitman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 5:3066% → 67%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
34.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for 6 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+7
34.1%
Austin Vaughn run for 7 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+29
34.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for 29 yds to the SAlab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
33.4%
Derrick Gore run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 32Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+2
33.5%
Caleb Evans run for 2 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+1
33.8%
Caleb Evans run for 1 yd to the SAlab 29Similar
Q1 6:06
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+16
34.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Zachari Jackson for 16 yds to the SAlab 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
33.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 9 yds to the SAlab 4Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 1
OPP 4
0
33.4%
Derrick Gore run for no gain to the SAlab 4Similar
Q1 0:36
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+4
32.9%
Caleb Evans run for 4 yds for a TD (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 6:0234% → 40%
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
34.2%
Cole Garvin run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 34Similar
Q1 0:36
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+8
34.1%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 8 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+17
35.1%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jamarius Way for 17 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
35.9%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jordan McCray for 7 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+5
36.4%
Tra Minter run for 5 yds to the LaMon 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
36.4%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Khameron Taylor for no gain to the LaMon 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+2
36.4%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Tra Minter for 2 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+10
35.7%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 10 yds to the LaMon 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
36.4%
Cole Garvin run for 5 yds to the LaMon 12Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 12
-4
36.4%
Deonta Moore run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 16Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+2
35.7%
Tra Minter run for 2 yds to the LaMon 14Similar
Q2 9:34
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+31
39.9%
Gavin Patterson 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:1063% → 73%
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
37.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to R.J. Turner for 9 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 1
OWN 39
0
35.9%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to R.J. TurnerSimilar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+3
36.1%
Josh Johnson run for 3 yds to the LaMon 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
36.1%
Caleb Evans run for 9 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+7
35.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 7 yds to the SAlab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
35.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to R.J. Turner for 5 yds to the SAlab 37Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+2
35.2%
Josh Johnson run for 2 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+6
35.5%
Evans, Caleb pass incomplete to Lamm, Tyler, PENALTY USA pass interference (DeShazor, A.J.) 6 yards to the USA29, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
27.3%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 29 yds for a TD (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9MISSED FG
12 plays · 54 yds · 4:2330% → 32%
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
30.0%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jamarius Way for 1 yd to the SAlab 26Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
29.9%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jamarius Way for 5 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+12
29.7%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Malik Stanley for 12 yds to the SAlab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+20
31.4%
Tra Minter run for 20 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-6
32.4%
Cole Garvin sacked by David Griffith and Donald Louis Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the LaMon 43Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 16
OPP 43
+19
31.2%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 19 yds to the LaMon 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
35.1%
Tra Minter run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 25Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+4
35.0%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jordan McCray for 4 yds to the LaMon 21Similar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 7
OPP 21
0
33.7%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Kawaan Baker, broken up by Collin TurnerSimilar
Q2 2:01
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+38
32.3%
Gavin Patterson 38 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by null Chase Day return for 2 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:3973% → 82%
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
27.3%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Zachari Jackson for 16 yds to the SAlab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
28.8%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Markis McCraySimilar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+8
29.3%
Caleb Evans run for 8 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
Q2 2:01
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+6
28.3%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Zachari Jackson for 6 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
26.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 6 yds to the SAlab 37Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+13
26.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Kayin White for 13 yds to the SAlab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+19
25.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for 19 yds to the SAlab 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
17.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for 5 yds for a TD (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
20.8%
Tra Minter run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
19.9%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jamarius WaySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
19.8%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Tra Minter for 2 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
19.4%
Cole Garvin sacked by Kerry Starks for a loss of 5 yards to the SAlab 22Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
19.3%
Corliss Waitman punt for 50 yds, downed at the LaMon 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13TD
3 plays · 72 yds · 1:0182% → 92%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
18.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 12 yds to the LaMon 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+50
17.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for 50 yds to the SAlab 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
8.1%
Marcus Green run for 10 yds for a TD (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
11.7%
Cole Garvin sacked by Traveion Webster for a loss of 5 yards to the SAlab 20Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
11.6%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jamarius Way, broken up by Kerry StarksSimilar
Q3 12:34
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+17
11.5%
Tra Minter run for 17 yds to the SAlab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
12.1%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 32Similar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 15
OWN 32
0
11.7%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Kawaan BakerSimilar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+3
11.6%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q3 12:34
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+8
11.6%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Malik Stanley for 8 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q3 12:34
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
12.3%
Corliss Waitman punt for 34 yds, downed at the LaMon 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 3:3393% → 98%
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
7.0%
Derrick Gore run for 2 yds to the LaMon 25Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+11
7.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 11 yds to the LaMon 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
6.7%
Caleb Evans sacked by Tyree Turner for a loss of 6 yards to the LaMon 30Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 16
OWN 30
+23
7.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Derrick Gore for 23 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
6.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Brandius Batiste for 14 yds to the SAlab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
6.4%
Caleb Evans run for 15 yds to the SAlab 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
6.3%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Derrick Gore for 3 yds to the SAlab 15Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+15
2.3%
Caleb Evans run for 15 yds for a TD (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
4.3%
Tra Minter run for 4 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
4.2%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jalen TolbertSimilar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
4.1%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jalen Tolbert, broken up by Marcus HubbardSimilar
Q3 5:50
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
4.1%
Corliss Waitman punt for 40 yds, downed at the LaMon 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
2.3%
Markis McCray run for 5 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
2.3%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Zachari JacksonSimilar
Q3 4:57
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+3
2.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 3 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q3 4:57
4TH & 2
OWN 39
+5
2.3%
Porter, Jared punt 49 yards to the USA12, downed, PENALTY USA offside defense (Daniels, DJ) 5 yards to the ULM44, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
2.2%
Kayin White run for 3 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+6
2.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 6 yds to the SAlab 47Similar
Q3 4:57
3RD & 1
OPP 47
0
1.9%
Kayin White run for no gain to the SAlab 47Similar
Q3 4:57
4TH & 1
OPP 47
0
2.3%
Jared Porter punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:442% → 1%
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
1.7%
Maurice Mayo run for 14 yds to the SAlab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
1.7%
Cephus Johnson run for 5 yds to the SAlab 39 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, illegal block (Collier Smith) to the SAlab 29Similar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 15
OWN 29
0
1.7%
Cephus Johnson pass incomplete to Jamarius Way, broken up by Floyd ConnellSimilar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+3
1.6%
Cephus Johnson run for 3 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 32
+7
1.4%
Cephus Johnson run for 7 yds to the SAlab 39Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
1.4%
Corliss Waitman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
0.7%
Markis McCray run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 18Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+9
0.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 9 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-4
0.7%
Caleb Evans sacked by Sean Grayer for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 23Similar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+52
0.9%
Jared Porter punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tra Minter at the SOUTHALA 40 for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the LaMon 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
0.6%
Cephus Johnson pass incomplete to Jamarius WaySimilar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
0.6%
Cephus Johnson run for 3 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+4
0.6%
John Tank Miller run for 4 yds to the LaMon 38Similar
Q4 12:37
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+2
0.6%
Carlos Davis run for 2 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 54 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+46
0.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for 46 yds to the SAlab 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
0.5%
Derrick Gore run for 3 yds to the SAlab 15Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+3
0.5%
Derrick Gore run for 3 yds to the SAlab 12Similar
Q4 11:12
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+2
0.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Perry Carter Jr. for 2 yds to the SAlab 10Similar
Q4 11:12
4TH & 2
OPP 10
0
0.5%
Caleb Evans run for no gain to the SAlab 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
0.3%
Cephus Johnson run for 11 yds to the SAlab 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-6
0.3%
Cephus Johnson run for 4 yds to the SAlab 26 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, illegal block (Jamarius Way) to the SAlab 16Similar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 16
OWN 16
-6
0.3%
Cephus Johnson sacked by Kerry Starks for a loss of 6 yards to the SAlab 10Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 22
OWN 10
-6
0.3%
Cephus Johnson run for a loss of 6 yards to the SAlab 2 Cephus Johnson fumbled, recovered by SAlab Cephus JohnsonSimilar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 30
OWN 2
+1
0.2%
Jared Wilson run for 1 yd to the SAlab 3Similar
Q4 8:45
4TH & 29
OWN 3
+8
0.2%
Corliss Waitman punt for 57 yds , Perry Carter Jr. returns for 8 yds to the LaMon 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23END OF GAME
9 plays · 24 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
0.2%
Josh Johnson run for 3 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q4 5:26
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+6
0.2%
Josh Johnson run for 6 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q4 5:26
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+5
0.2%
Javin Myers run for 5 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
0.2%
Javin Myers run for 1 yd to the SAlab 37Similar
Q4 5:26
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+3
0.2%
Javin Myers run for 3 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q4 5:26
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+9
0.2%
J.T. Jackson pass complete to Perry Carter Jr. for 9 yds to the SAlab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
0.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 26Similar
Q4 5:26
2ND & 11
OPP 26
-1
0.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 27Similar
Q4 5:26
3RD & 12
OPP 27
-1
0.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:34
Marcus Green run for 10 yds for a TD (Craig Ford KICK)
-9.5
TD · Q2 6:24
Caleb Evans pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 29 yds for a TD (Craig Ford KICK)
-8.2
TD · Q2 0:22
Caleb Evans pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for 5 yds for a TD (Craig Ford KICK)
-7.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com