Try the model
TROY

Troy 35 at Georgia Southern 21

GASO
2018 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2018 · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · GASO
modelGASO aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playGASO scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:14 · Magill Bauerle punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Terence Dunlap at the Troy 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 31Home team on offense+0.6Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Pregame prior−2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:21: B.J. Smith run for 6 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +8.8 pts (now 57%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 6:40: Tyler Sumpter 42 yd FG GOOD — TROY win probability +7.5 pts (now 65%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:39: Sawyer Smith pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 29 yds for a TD (Sidney Davis pass to Damion Willis for Two-Point Conversion) — TROY win probability +16.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:50: B.J. Smith run for 10 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +8.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:13: Shai Werts run for 18 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK) — GASO win probability +12.1 pts (now 16%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GASO made the numbers' call on 4 of 9TROY made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00GASO 4th & 6 at GASO 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:21TROY 4th & 8 at GASO 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    53.6%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:51TROY 4th & 7 at TROY 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:14GASO 4th & 8 at GASO 23, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00TROY 4th & 2 at GASO 14, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    44.5%−0.4
    84% to make
    Punt
    41.5%−3.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:38GASO 4th & 4 at TROY 43, up 4
    Close callPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    51.8%−1.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:57GASO 4th & 2 at GASO 29, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:13TROY 4th & 8 at GASO 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−2.4
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    52.7%−5.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00TROY 4th & 5 at TROY 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:16GASO 4th & 12 at GASO 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%−2.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:40TROY 4th & 3 at GASO 25, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.4%−1.4
    66% to make
    Punt
    47.5%−11.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:40GASO 4th & 1 at GASO 34, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%−1.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:39GASO 4th & 4 at GASO 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−0.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:29TROY 4th & 16 at GASO 19, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−0.9
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    93.3%−2.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:29GASO 4th & 9 at GASO 39, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:36GASO 4th & 7 at TROY 44, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    2.9%
    27% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GASO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 6:51GASO Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:42GASO Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:44TROY Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:21TROY Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:39TROY Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    79.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    79.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:50TROY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:13GASO Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASODrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
47.3%
Shai Werts run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
47.3%
Wesley Fields run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-1
47.3%
Logan Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
47.3%
Magill Bauerle punt for 21 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2FG
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:3153% → 52%
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
50
-1
47.5%
B.J. Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 49Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+7
47.6%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Sidney Davis for 7 yds to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+14
47.6%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 14 yds to the GeoSo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
47.5%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Sidney DavisSimilar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+2
47.5%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 8
OPP 28
0
47.6%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to B.J. SmithSimilar
Q1 10:21
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+45
47.8%
Tyler Sumpter 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 3TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 3:2348% → 51%
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
47.9%
Wesley Fields run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+29
47.9%
Monteo Garrett run for 29 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+44
48.5%
Shai Werts pass complete to Wesley Fields for 44 yds to the Troy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
48.7%
Wesley Fields run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 6Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
48.7%
Logan Wright run for 3 yds to the Troy 3Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
50.9%
Shai Werts pass complete to Ellis Richardson for 3 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
50.3%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 1 yd to the Troy 26Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
50.3%
Sawyer Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
50.6%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Damion WillisSimilar
Q1 6:51
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
50.9%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 65 yds, downed at the GeoSo 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
50.6%
Shai Werts run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 9Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+2
50.5%
Wesley Fields run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 11Similar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 6
OWN 11
+10
50.2%
Shai Werts run for 10 yds to the GeoSo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
50.7%
Logan Wright run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
50.8%
Shai Werts pass incomplete, broken up by Tron FolsomSimilar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 6
OWN 25
-2
50.3%
Shai Werts run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q1 5:14
4TH & 8
OWN 23
0
49.9%
Magill Bauerle punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Terence Dunlap at the Troy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6FUMBLE
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
50.8%
Sawyer Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 31 Sawyer Smith fumbled, forced by Logan Hunt, recovered by GeoSo Kenderick Duncan Jr. , return for 4 yds to the Troy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 7TD
3 plays · 31 yds · 1:1053% → 58%
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+30
53.2%
Shai Werts pass complete to Wesley Fields for 30 yds to the Troy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
53.3%
Wesley Fields run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 2Similar
Q1 0:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
58.1%
Shai Werts pass complete to Ellis Richardson for 2 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8TD
15 plays · 85 yds · 5:5243% → 50%
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
57.3%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 18Similar
Q1 0:36
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+5
57.3%
B.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the Troy 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+4
57.9%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 4 yds to the Troy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
57.5%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the Troy 32Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 32
+13
56.9%
DK Billingsley run for 13 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
56.7%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Sidney Davis for 12 yds to the GeoSo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
56.3%
B.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+16
56.0%
Luke Whittemore pass complete to Tray Eafford for 16 yds to the GeoSo 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
55.5%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Jabir Daughtry-Frye for 5 yds to the GeoSo 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 17
-5
55.5%
TROY Penalty, false start (Damion Willis) to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+9
55.7%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Sidney Davis for 9 yds to the GeoSo 13Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 13
-1
56.1%
B.J. Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 14Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+11
56.8%
Sidney Davis pass complete to Sawyer Smith for 11 yds to the GeoSo 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
50.4%
Tray Eafford run for 3 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
54.1%
Wesley Fields run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+9
54.4%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
54.9%
Shai Werts run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 11
OWN 37
0
54.3%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Ellis RichardsonSimilar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+14
53.4%
Shai Werts pass complete to Wesley Fields for 14 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
56.0%
Logan Wright run for 5 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+1
56.1%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 1 yd to the Troy 43Similar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
55.6%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Ellis RichardsonSimilar
Q2 9:38
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
54.4%
Magill Bauerle punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Terence Dunlap at the Troy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10TD
6 plays · 92 yds · 2:1544% → 57%
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-6
55.8%
B.J. Smith run for a loss of 6 yards to the Troy 2Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 16
OWN 2
+41
56.0%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 41 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+40
53.4%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 40 yds to the GeoSo 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
51.5%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Sidney Davis for 7 yds to the GeoSo 10Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+4
51.5%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Sidney Davis for 4 yds to the GeoSo 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
42.7%
B.J. Smith run for 6 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:1947% → 48%
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
46.8%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Logan WrightSimilar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+1
46.7%
Shai Werts run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+7
46.7%
Shai Werts pass complete to Obe Fortune for 7 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q2 2:57
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
47.8%
Magill Bauerle punt for 46 yds , Terence Dunlap returns for no gain to the Troy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12MISSED FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 2:3453% → 58%
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
47.2%
Sawyer Smith run for 5 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
46.6%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
46.4%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
46.3%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 37Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
46.5%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Sidney DavisSimilar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+41
47.2%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 41 yds to the GeoSo 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
44.0%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 20Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
44.0%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Damion Willis, broken up by Joshua MoonSimilar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
41.0%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Luke Whittemore, broken up by Kindle VildorSimilar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+37
42.4%
Tyler Sumpter 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
47.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0055% → 53%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
44.8%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Sidney Davis for no gain to the Troy 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
44.9%
Sawyer Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+3
45.9%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Daniel Crowell for 3 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
46.8%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Wesley Kennedy III at the GeoSo 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0046% → 44%
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
45.9%
Shai Werts run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 5
OWN 26
-4
46.3%
Shai Werts run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q3 13:16
3RD & 9
OWN 22
-3
44.4%
Shai Werts sacked by Antione Barker for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q3 13:16
4TH & 12
OWN 19
0
43.6%
Magill Bauerle punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Terence Dunlap at the Troy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16FG
9 plays · 30 yds · 4:3057% → 65%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
42.7%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+6
42.3%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Jabir Daughtry-Frye for 6 yds to the GeoSo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
42.0%
DK Billingsley run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+1
41.7%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+7
42.4%
B.J. Smith run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
41.0%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Jabir Daughtry-Frye for 3 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+1
40.6%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+3
42.1%
Sawyer Smith run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q3 6:40
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+42
34.6%
Tyler Sumpter 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0039% → 37%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
38.5%
Shai Werts pass complete to Davarius Bargnare for 3 yds to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
38.8%
Wesley Fields run for no gain to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
37.1%
Shai Werts pass complete to Wesley Fields for 6 yds to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q3 6:40
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
37.4%
Magill Bauerle punt for 30 yds, downed at the Troy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 1:0868% → 86%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+21
32.4%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Sidney Davis for 21 yds to the GeoSo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
30.7%
Smith, Sawyer pass incomplete to Willis, Damion, PENALTY GS pass interference (M. Brinson) 15 yards to the GS28, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
30.0%
B.J. Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+29
14.0%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 29 yds for a TD (Sidney Davis pass to Damion Willis for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
17.3%
Wesley Fields run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
17.6%
Wesley Fields run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q3 3:39
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
17.5%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Davarius BargnareSimilar
Q3 3:39
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
17.2%
Magill Bauerle punt for 36 yds , Terence Dunlap returns for no gain to the Troy 31 TROY Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Troy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 4:1786% → 98%
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
14.2%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 15 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
13.3%
B.J. Smith run for 11 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
13.0%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+18
11.6%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Jabir Daughtry-Frye for 18 yds to the GeoSo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+21
11.4%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Sidney Davis for 21 yds to the GeoSo 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
11.2%
B.J. Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 10Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
11.2%
Sawyer Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
2.5%
B.J. Smith run for 10 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 21TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:373% → 16%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+44
3.3%
Shai Werts pass complete to Wesley Fields for 44 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
4.1%
Shai Werts run for 9 yds to the Troy 22Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+4
4.1%
Wesley Fields run for 4 yds to the Troy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
16.3%
Shai Werts run for 18 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22MISSED FG
16 plays · 56 yds · 7:4492% → 97%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
8.5%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Sidney Davis for 7 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
8.3%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
8.1%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+14
7.9%
B.J. Smith run for 14 yds to the GeoSo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
7.7%
DK Billingsley run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+6
7.7%
DK Billingsley run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+1
8.0%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q4 11:13
4TH & 4
OPP 41
+15
8.8%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Logan Hunt) to the GeoSo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-3
7.5%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Sidney Davis for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 13
OPP 29
+16
7.6%
B.J. Smith run for 16 yds to the GeoSo 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
7.5%
B.J. Smith run for no gain to the GeoSo 13Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-6
7.5%
Sawyer Smith run for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 16
OPP 19
0
8.1%
DK Billingsley run for no gain to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q4 3:29
4TH & 16
OPP 19
+36
3.2%
Tyler Sumpter 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 23DOWNS
17 plays · 36 yds · 2:533% → 2%
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
3.3%
Shai Werts pass complete to Monteo Garrett for 6 yds to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+4
3.4%
Shai Werts run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
3.4%
Shai Werts sacked by Antione Barker for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 15
OWN 25
-12
3.3%
S. Werts pass incomplete to O. Fortune, QB hurry by Barker, Antione, PENALTY GS personal foul (J. Culbreth) 12 yards to the GS13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 27
OWN 13
+15
3.3%
TROY Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the GeoSo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
3.4%
Shai Werts run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
3.4%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Obe Fortune, broken up by Blace BrownSimilar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+8
3.3%
Shai Werts pass complete to Ellis Richardson for 8 yds to the GeoSo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
3.5%
Shai Werts pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
3.5%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Mark MichaudSimilar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+1
3.4%
Shai Werts pass complete to Ellis Richardson for 1 yd to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q4 3:29
4TH & 9
OWN 39
+14
3.4%
Shai Werts pass complete to Davarius Bargnare for 14 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
3.7%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Ellis RichardsonSimilar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-5
3.7%
Shai Werts sacked by Hunter Reese for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 15
OWN 48
+8
2.3%
Shai Werts pass complete to Davarius Bargnare for 8 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q4 0:36
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
2.4%
Shai Werts run for no gain to the Troy 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -16 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-15
1.8%
TROY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Justin Whisenhunt) to the Troy 29Similar
Q4 0:11
1ST & 25
OWN 29
-1
2.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:39
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 29 yds for a TD (Sidney Davis pass to Damion Willis for Two-Point Conversion)
-16
TD · Q4 11:13
Shai Werts run for 18 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)
+12.1
TD · Q2 3:21
B.J. Smith run for 6 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)
-8.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com