Try the model
UL

Louisiana 16 at Troy 26

TROY
2018 · Week 10 · Nov 3, 2018 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:09 · Rhys Byrns punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Terence Dunlap at the Troy 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 139Home team on offense+12.1Pregame prior+3.8Score differential+4.6Garbage-time factor+2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:03: B.J. Smith run for 12 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +6.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Tyler Sumpter 20 yd FG GOOD — TROY win probability +8.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:29: Trey Ragas run for 3 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK) — UL win probability +9.8 pts (now 19%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 5:10: Tyler Sumpter 49 yd FG GOOD — TROY win probability +4.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:39: Trey Ragas run for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UL win probability +7.8 pts (now 23%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UL made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 9:37TROY 4th & 5 at UL 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.9%
    86% to make
    Punt
    70.2%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:22UL 4th & 3 at TROY 15, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.2%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    27.8%−1.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:38UL 4th & 6 at UL 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:22UL 4th & 13 at TROY 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    23.3%−3.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:22TROY 4th & 9 at TROY 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:03UL 4th & 9 at TROY 40, down 14
    Close callPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    19.5%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:11TROY 4th & 2 at UL 25, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.6%−0.8
    66% to make
    Punt
    77.8%−4.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:19UL 4th & 14 at UL 21, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−2.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:10TROY 4th & 8 at UL 32, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    87.4%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 25, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:09UL 4th & 2 at UL 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.3%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:09UL 4th & 7 at TROY 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:07TROY 4th & 15 at midfield, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%−1.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:56TROY 4th & 17 at TROY 5, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−1.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:49UL 4th & 23 at UL 42, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%−0.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UL made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 6:38TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:03TROY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:29UL Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:39UL Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    15.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    15.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1FG
12 plays · 63 yds · 5:2367% → 67%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
66.5%
Sawyer Smith run for 4 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
66.5%
B.J. Smith run for 6 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-20
66.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 20 yards to the Troy 15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 30
OWN 15
-5
66.5%
TROY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Troy 10Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 35
OWN 10
+49
66.5%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 49 yds to the LaLaf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
66.5%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+21
66.5%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Jabir Daughtry-Frye for 21 yds to the LaLaf 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
66.5%
Sawyer Smith run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 10Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 10
-1
66.5%
B.J. Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 11Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 11
-1
66.5%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Sidney Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 12Similar
Q1 9:37
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+29
66.8%
Tyler Sumpter 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2FG
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:1534% → 35%
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
66.0%
Trey Ragas run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 43Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+21
66.1%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for 21 yds to the Troy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
65.8%
Trey Ragas run for 3 yds to the Troy 19Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 7
OPP 19
0
65.8%
Andre Nunez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+4
66.0%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 4 yds to the Troy 15Similar
Q1 7:22
4TH & 3
OPP 15
+32
65.0%
Kyle Pfau 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3TD
3 plays · 90 yds · 0:4466% → 69%
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+15
65.5%
Daughtry-Frye rush left for no gain to the TROY10 (Jacquet,Michael;Miller,Terik), PENALTY LA face mask (Higgins,Bennie) 15 yards to the TROY25, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
68.6%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 75 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 38 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+21
68.5%
Ragas,Trey rush up middle for 5 yards to the LA13 (Smith, Coby;Choloh, Will), PENALTY TROY personal foul 21 yards to the LA29, 1ST DOWN LA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
68.3%
Trey Ragas run for 13 yds to the LaLaf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
68.0%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus BradleySimilar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
68.1%
Trey Ragas run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+1
68.1%
Andre Nunez run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q1 6:38
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
68.5%
Rhys Byrns punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Terence Dunlap at the Troy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5FUMBLE
7 plays · 42 yds · 0:0069% → 70%
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
69.1%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Tray Eafford, broken up by LaDarrius KiddSimilar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+13
69.0%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 13 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
69.2%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 12 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
69.8%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Jabir Daughtry-Frye for 10 yds to the LaLaf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
69.9%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Damion Willis, broken up by Michael Jacquet IIISimilar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+16
69.8%
B.J. Smith run for 16 yds to the LaLaf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-7
70.1%
Sawyer Smith run for a loss of 7 yards to the LaLaf 42 Sawyer Smith fumbled, recovered by LaLaf Koa HaynesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6MISSED FG
11 plays · 36 yds · 4:2832% → 30%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
68.4%
Andre Nunez run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+4
67.9%
Raymond Calais run for 4 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+2
67.9%
Raymond Calais run for 2 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
67.8%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 4 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+12
67.9%
Trey Ragas run for 12 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
67.3%
Trey Ragas run for 9 yds to the Troy 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+3
67.2%
Trey Ragas run for 3 yds to the Troy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
67.2%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Johnny LumpkinSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-2
67.3%
Raymond Calais run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 21Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 21
-1
68.4%
Raymond Calais run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 22Similar
Q2 12:22
4TH & 13
OPP 22
+39
70.2%
Kyle Pfau 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
70.3%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 5 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+6
70.4%
B.J. Smith run for 6 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
70.5%
B.J. Smith run for no gain to the Troy 33Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
70.3%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Damion WillisSimilar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+1
69.7%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Tray Eafford for 1 yd to the Troy 34Similar
Q2 12:22
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
69.2%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 38 yds , Ja'Marcus Bradley returns for no gain to the LaLaf 28 Ja'Marcus Bradley fumbled, recovered by LaLaf Ja'Marcus BradleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8FUMBLE
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
70.2%
Levi Lewis run for a loss of 5 yards to the LaLaf 23 Levi Lewis fumbled, recovered by Troy Trevon SandersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9TD
2 plays · 23 yds · 0:4673% → 79%
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
72.6%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to B.J. Smith for 11 yds to the LaLaf 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
79.4%
B.J. Smith run for 12 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
76.9%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus BradleySimilar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
77.0%
Andre Nunez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:03
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+33
77.3%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 33 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
75.9%
Raymond Calais run for 2 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 8
OPP 39
-1
75.9%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Trey Ragas for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 40Similar
Q2 9:03
3RD & 9
OPP 40
0
76.3%
Andre Nunez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:03
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
77.0%
Rhys Byrns punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Terence Dunlap at the Troy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11FG
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:5979% → 87%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+14
78.5%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 14 yds to the Troy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.6%
Sawyer Smith run for no gain to the Troy 25Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
78.5%
B.J. Smith run for no gain to the Troy 25Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+42
78.0%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Tray Eafford for 42 yds to the LaLaf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
79.5%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+5
79.5%
B.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+1
79.0%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q2 3:11
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+42
86.5%
Tyler Sumpter 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:5216% → 15%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
84.0%
Trey Ragas run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
83.5%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Trey RagasSimilar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-8
83.8%
Andre Nunez sacked by Tron Folsom for a loss of 8 yards to the LaLaf 21Similar
Q2 2:19
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
84.9%
Rhys Byrns punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Terence Dunlap at the Troy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13FG
12 plays · 57 yds · 2:1287% → 93%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
87.0%
B.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+10
87.0%
B.J. Smith run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+28
87.1%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 28 yds to the LaLaf 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
87.1%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 12Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+5
87.1%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 5 yds to the LaLaf 7Similar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+2
86.7%
Tray Eafford run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
86.0%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 2Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
85.7%
B.J. Smith run for no gain to the LaLaf 2Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
92.6%
Tyler Sumpter 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14TD
10 plays · 55 yds · 3:318% → 19%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+21
91.8%
Ja'Marcus Bradley pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for 21 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
91.1%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Jarrod Jackson, broken up by Kyler KnudsenSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+5
91.1%
Nunez,Andre deep pass incomplete to Bradley,J., PENALTY TROY offside defense 5 yards to the TROY29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+7
90.8%
Trey Ragas run for 7 yds to the Troy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
90.8%
Trey Ragas run for 7 yds to the Troy 15Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+3
90.8%
Trey Ragas run for 3 yds to the Troy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
90.8%
Raymond Calais run for 9 yds to the Troy 3Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 3
0
90.8%
Raymond Calais run for no gain to the Troy 3Similar
Q3 11:29
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+3
81.0%
Trey Ragas run for 3 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15FG
13 plays · 39 yds · 6:1985% → 91%
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
84.8%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 3 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+4
84.8%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q3 11:29
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+8
84.7%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 8 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
85.6%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 3 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+3
85.5%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:29
3RD & 4
50
+16
85.0%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to B.J. Smith for 16 yds to the LaLaf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
85.6%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+4
87.0%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 4 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 5
OPP 29
-5
86.6%
TROY Penalty, false start (J.L. Gaston) to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+2
86.5%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q3 5:10
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+49
91.3%
Tyler Sumpter 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:3114% → 23%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
86.2%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
86.4%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Ryheem MaloneSimilar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+18
86.7%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 18 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
85.0%
Trey Ragas run for 4 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+23
85.0%
Trey Ragas run for 23 yds to the Troy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
83.7%
Raymond Calais run for 3 yds to the Troy 15Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 7
OPP 15
0
83.7%
Levi Lewis run for no gain to the Troy 15Similar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+5
84.7%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Raymond Calais for 5 yds to the Troy 10Similar
Q3 5:10
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+5
85.1%
Ragas,Trey rush up middle for loss of 2 yards to the TROY12 (Tyus, Melvin;Murray, Tyler), PENALTY TROY offside defense 5 yards to the TROY5, 1ST DOWN LA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
77.2%
Trey Ragas run for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:3984% → 83%
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
83.6%
Sawyer Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 21
0
84.0%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Damion Willis, broken up by Michael Jacquet IIISimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+4
83.3%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Daniel Crowell for 4 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 25
0
82.7%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ja'Marcus Bradley at the LaLaf 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
83.1%
LOUISIANA Penalty, false start (Ryheem Malone) to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 15
OWN 30
0
84.4%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus Bradley, broken up by Kyler KnudsenSimilar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 15
OWN 30
0
84.7%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus BradleySimilar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+13
85.6%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Earnest Patterson for 13 yds to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+5
83.5%
Trey Ragas run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
81.6%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
81.5%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus BradleySimilar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+2
82.3%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Raymond Calais for 2 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
83.5%
Rhys Byrns punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Terence Dunlap at the Troy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-9
85.8%
Smith, B.J. rush right for 2 yards to the TROY19 (Booker,T.), PENALTY TROY holding 9 yards to the TROY8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 19
OWN 8
+5
85.2%
Smith, Sawyer rush left for 2 yards to the TROY10, out-of-bounds, PENALTY LA offside defense 5 yards to the TROY13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 14
OWN 13
+7
85.6%
B.J. Smith run for 7 yds to the Troy 20Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+14
85.6%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 14 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
86.1%
Sawyer Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+18
86.5%
B.J. Smith run for 18 yds to the LaLaf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
87.6%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+5
87.2%
B.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 7
OPP 42
-8
86.8%
Sawyer Smith sacked by Chauncey Manac for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:07
4TH & 15
50
+23
85.0%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 38 yds, downed at the TROY 12 TROY Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the LaLaf 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20INT
8 plays · 47 yds · 0:009% → 11%
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+27
90.8%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Johnny Lumpkin for 27 yds to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
88.8%
Andre Nunez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
88.6%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Trey Ragas for 2 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q4 5:37
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+9
89.0%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 9 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
87.7%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 12 yds to the Troy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
87.0%
Raymond Calais run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 24Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 11
OPP 24
-2
87.6%
Andre Nunez sacked by Carlton Martial for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 26Similar
Q4 5:37
3RD & 13
OPP 26
0
89.3%
Andre Nunez pass intercepted Kyler Knudsen return for no gain to the Troy 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · -7 yds · 0:1495% → 97%
Q4 2:10
2ND & 11
OWN 11
-5
95.2%
TROY Penalty, (-5 Yards) to the Troy 6Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 16
OWN 6
-3
95.1%
TROY Penalty, (-3 Yards) to the Troy 3Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 19
OWN 3
+1
95.1%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 4Similar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
95.4%
B.J. Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 11Similar
Q4 2:02
3RD & 18
OWN 4
+1
96.0%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 5Similar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 17
OWN 5
0
96.6%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ja'Marcus Bradley at the Troy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 22INT
4 plays · -13 yds · 0:004% → 3%
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-7
95.9%
Andre Nunez sacked by Will Choloh Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the LaLaf 49 Andre Nunez fumbled, recovered by LaLaf , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 16
OWN 49
-5
96.7%
Andre Nunez sacked by Hunter Reese for a loss of 5 yards to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 21
OWN 44
-2
97.0%
Andre Nunez sacked by Antione Barker for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q4 1:49
4TH & 23
OWN 42
0
97.2%
Andre Nunez pass intercepted Melvin Tyus return for no gain to the Troy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
97.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:29
Trey Ragas run for 3 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)
-9.8
FG · Q2 0:00
Tyler Sumpter 20 yd FG GOOD
+8.5
TD · Q3 0:39
Trey Ragas run for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-7.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com