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GASO

Georgia Southern 25 at UL Monroe 44

ULM
2018 · Week 10 · Nov 3, 2018 · Malone Stadium
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Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreGASO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG+0.5ULM 99.5%Craig Ford 32 yd FG GOODAWAY 25 - HOME 44 · Q4 4:16
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:16 · Craig Ford 32 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 149Home team on offense+31.8Pregame prior−1.3Score differential+17.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+22.2Garbage-time factor+11.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+7.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:58: Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 69 yds for a TD (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +10.6 pts (now 63%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:49: Josh Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +14.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:02: Shai Werts pass complete to Mark Michaud for 22 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK) UL MONROE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined — GASO win probability +18.1 pts (now 32%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:31: Derrick Gore run for 1 yd for a TD (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +15.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:15: Timeout UL MONROE, clock 03:15 — GASO win probability +24.3 pts (now 35%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 5 of 7GASO made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 6:55GASO 4th & 4 at ULM 9, down 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.4%−0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    59.8%−1.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:43GASO 4th & 3 at GASO 15, down 13
    Close callPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:38ULM 4th & 11 at ULM 40, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00GASO 4th & 20 at GASO 30, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−0.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:58GASO 4th & 1 at ULM 45, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    32.8%−3.3
    25% to make
    Punt
    33.9%−2.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:40GASO 4th & 1 at ULM 21, down 20
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.4%−2.7
    74% to make
    Punt
    13.3%−9.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:40ULM 4th & 1 at GASO 20, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    66.1%−3.5
    75% to make
    Punt
    56.6%−13.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:49GASO 4th & 8 at GASO 39, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:02ULM 4th & 9 at GASO 40, up 17
    Close callWent for it · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.8%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    72.7%−1.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    74.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00GASO 4th & 13 at GASO 22, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−4.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:31GASO 4th & 15 at GASO 37, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−1.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00GASO 4th & 14 at GASO 37, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−3.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:37ULM 4th & 5 at ULM 27, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:38ULM 4th & 1 at GASO 24, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    94.9%−0.9
    68% to make
    Punt
    92.8%−3.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:16ULM 4th & 4 at GASO 15, up 16
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.8%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    95.0%−1.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:53GASO 4th & 6 at ULM 39, down 19
    Close callKicked a field goal · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.3%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:53ULM 4th & 14 at ULM 36, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5GASO made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 12:26ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    35.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:43ULM Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:58ULM Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:49ULM Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:02GASO Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:31ULM Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:15GASO Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    9.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    9.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3432% → 35%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
32.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 16 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
32.4%
Caleb Evans run for 4 yds to the LaMon 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 45
-5
32.4%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (Markis McCray) to the LaMon 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+3
32.4%
Derrick Gore run for 3 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+41
32.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 41 yds to the GeoSo 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+10
32.4%
Caleb Evans run for 10 yds to the GeoSo 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
32.4%
Caleb Evans run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 5Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
34.5%
Caleb Evans run for 5 yds for a TD (Craig Ford PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2MISSED FG
11 plays · 67 yds · 5:3166% → 63%
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
34.0%
Monteo Garrett run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+7
34.0%
Wesley Fields run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q1 12:26
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+10
34.0%
Wesley Fields run for 10 yds to the GeoSo 42 for a 1ST down UL MONROE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
33.9%
Logan Wright run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+27
33.8%
Shai Werts pass complete to Wesley Kennedy III for 12 yds to the ULMONROE 40 for a 1ST down UL MONROE Penalty, personal foul (Austin Hawley) to the LaMon 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
33.7%
Darion Anderson run for 10 yds to the LaMon 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
33.7%
Monteo Garrett run for 2 yds to the LaMon 13Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+5
33.7%
Logan Wright run for 5 yds to the LaMon 8Similar
Q1 12:26
3RD & 3
OPP 8
-1
33.8%
Wesley Fields run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 9Similar
Q1 6:55
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+26
37.4%
Tyler Bass 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
43.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 80 yds for a TD (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
41.6%
Wesley Fields run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 10Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+1
41.6%
Monteo Garrett run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 11Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 7
OWN 11
+4
41.7%
Monteo Garrett run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 15Similar
Q1 6:43
4TH & 3
OWN 15
0
41.8%
Magill Bauerle punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0047% → 45%
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
46.5%
Markis McCray run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 40Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 11
OWN 40
-5
46.2%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 35Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 16
OWN 35
+5
45.8%
Derrick Gore run for 5 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q1 4:38
3RD & 11
OWN 40
0
45.8%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to R.J. TurnerSimilar
Q1 4:38
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
45.3%
Jared Porter punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Wesley Kennedy III at the GeoSo 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 3:0653% → 50%
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
46.7%
Shai Werts run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+15
46.7%
Wesley Fields run for 15 yds to the GeoSo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
46.3%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q1 3:06
1ST & 15
OWN 35
-5
46.7%
S. Werts pass complete to D. Bargnare for 12 yards to the GS47, out-of-bounds, PENALTY GS illegal shift 5 yards to the GS30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:06
1ST & 20
OWN 30
+7
46.7%
Wesley Fields run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 13
OWN 37
-1
46.8%
Shai Werts sacked by Marcus Hubbard for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 36
-6
49.7%
Shai Werts sacked by Kerry Starks for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSo 30 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 20
OWN 30
0
49.9%
Magill Bauerle punt for 46 yds, downed at the LaMon 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7TD
2 plays · 76 yds · 0:4053% → 63%
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
52.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 7 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+69
63.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 69 yds for a TD (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8FG
16 plays · 53 yds · 8:1836% → 35%
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
63.8%
Shai Werts run for no gain to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
64.1%
Monteo Garrett run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+7
63.9%
Wesley Fields run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-6
63.4%
Wesley Kennedy III run for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 16
OWN 31
+15
64.1%
S. Werts pass incomplete to D. Anderson (Johnson, Jabari), PENALTY ULM pass interference (Johnson, Jabari) 15 yards to the GS46, 1ST DOWN GS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
63.1%
Wesley Fields run for 6 yds to the LaMon 48Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 4
OPP 48
0
62.3%
Wesley Fields run for no gain to the LaMon 48Similar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+3
62.9%
Wesley Fields run for 3 yds to the LaMon 45Similar
Q2 13:58
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+4
62.9%
Wesley Fields run for 4 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
62.5%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 4 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+7
62.2%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 7 yds to the LaMon 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
61.9%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 3 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+5
61.7%
Shai Werts run for 5 yds to the LaMon 22Similar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+1
62.4%
Wesley Fields run for 1 yd to the LaMon 21Similar
Q2 5:40
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+38
64.6%
Tyler Bass 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9TD
8 plays · 86 yds · 2:5170% → 85%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+57
69.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to R.J. Turner for 57 yds to the GeoSo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
70.6%
Josh Johnson run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 27Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
70.6%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+7
70.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to R.J. Turner for 7 yds to the GeoSo 20Similar
Q2 5:40
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+12
69.1%
Derrick Gore run for 12 yds to the GeoSo 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
70.6%
Josh Johnson run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 1Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.6%
Josh Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
81.5%
Shai Werts pass complete to Davarius Bargnare for 12 yds to the GeoSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
80.8%
Shai Werts pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
80.8%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Darion Anderson, broken up by Kenderick MarblesSimilar
Q2 2:49
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+2
81.6%
Shai Werts run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q2 2:49
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
81.7%
Magill Bauerle punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+35
86.3%
Caleb Evans pass intercepted for a 1ST down Kenderick Duncan Jr. return for 20 yds to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST down GA SOUTHERN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the LaMon 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12TD
1 play · 22 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
68.2%
Shai Werts pass complete to Mark Michaud for 22 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK) UL MONROE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13DOWNS
12 plays · 35 yds · 1:0076% → 74%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
76.3%
Caleb Evans run for 9 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+25
76.5%
Derrick Gore run for 10 yds to the GeoSo 44 for a 1ST down GA SOUTHERN Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jay Bowdry) to the GeoSo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
76.1%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+3
76.0%
Caleb Evans run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 38Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+3
75.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to R.J. Turner for 3 yds to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 4
OPP 35
-5
73.2%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
74.4%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus Green, broken up by Kindle VildorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
74.1%
Wesley Fields run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
74.5%
Shai Werts run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-4
74.7%
Shai Werts sacked by David Griffith for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
75.0%
Magill Bauerle punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:2877% → 93%
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
77.1%
Derrick Gore run for 5 yds to the LaMon 38Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+7
77.8%
Derrick Gore run for 7 yds to the LaMon 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
77.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Tyler Lamm for 16 yds to the GeoSo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
77.9%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus Green, broken up by Jay BowdrySimilar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
77.8%
Caleb Evans run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+9
77.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 9 yds to the GeoSo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
78.0%
Derrick Gore run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+10
78.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Tyler Lamm for 10 yds to the GeoSo 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
78.0%
Caleb Evans run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 3Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+2
78.0%
Derrick Gore run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.2%
Derrick Gore run for 1 yd for a TD (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 16 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
92.2%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Darion AndersonSimilar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+1
92.3%
Logan Wright run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+9
92.4%
Shai Werts pass complete to Davarius Bargnare for 9 yds to the GeoSo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
91.9%
Wesley Fields run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+6
91.9%
Logan Wright run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
91.9%
Monteo Garrett run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 5
OWN 47
-1
91.9%
Wesley Fields run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 6
OWN 46
-9
92.1%
Shai Werts sacked by Jabari Johnson for a loss of 9 yards to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q3 8:31
4TH & 15
OWN 37
0
92.5%
Magill Bauerle punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17INT TD
2 plays · 19 yds · 0:3196% → 89%
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+19
96.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to R.J. Turner for 19 yds to the LaMon 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+57
89.4%
Caleb Evans pass intercepted for a TD Jessie Liptrot return for 57 yds for a TD Timeout UL MONROE, clock 03:15 (W. Fields Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0173% → 78%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
73.3%
Derrick Gore run for 35 yds to the GeoSo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+17
76.1%
Caleb Evans run for 17 yds to the GeoSo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
76.4%
Josh Johnson run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 15Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+13
76.4%
Caleb Evans run for 13 yds to the GeoSo 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
76.4%
Derrick Gore run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 5Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
76.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 3 yds to the GeoSo 2Similar
Q3 0:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
78.3%
Caleb Evans run for 2 yds for a TD (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:1424% → 22%
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
75.7%
Logan Wright run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
74.9%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
74.9%
Wesley Fields run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
73.8%
Wesley Fields run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+3
74.0%
Shai Werts pass complete to Wesley Kennedy III for 3 yds to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 46
-9
73.7%
Shai Werts sacked by Derion Ford for a loss of 9 yards to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 37
0
77.9%
Magill Bauerle punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21PUNT TD
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2181% → 96%
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
81.3%
Derrick Gore run for 3 yds to the LaMon 25Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+2
81.3%
Derrick Gore run for 2 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
80.6%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Josh PedersonSimilar
Q4 10:37
4TH & 5
OWN 27
+5
96.4%
Jared Porter punt blocked by NaJee Thompson blocked by NaJee Thompson Benz Josue return for 5 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 22FG
15 plays · 60 yds · 6:2197% → 100%
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
96.6%
Derrick Gore run for 20 yds to the LaMon 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
97.0%
Derrick Gore run for 4 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+3
97.0%
Josh Johnson run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
97.0%
Josh Johnson run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+7
97.0%
Caleb Evans run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 24Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 1
OPP 24
0
96.7%
Derrick Gore run for no gain to the GeoSo 24Similar
Q4 6:38
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+3
98.0%
Caleb Evans run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
98.3%
Derrick Gore run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 20Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+1
98.3%
Caleb Evans run for 11 yds to the GeoSo 9 UL MONROE Penalty, illegal block (R.J. Turner) to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 8
OPP 19
0
98.3%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to R.J. TurnerSimilar
Q4 6:38
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+6
98.3%
Caleb Evans run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 15 Caleb Evans fumbled, forced by Jessie Liptrot, recovered by LaMon Josh PedersonSimilar
Q4 4:16
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+32
99.5%
Craig Ford 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 23MISSED FG
13 plays · 36 yds · 2:232% → 2%
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
97.6%
Shai Werts run for 10 yds to the GeoSo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
97.5%
Shai Werts pass complete to Colby Ransom for 9 yds to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+2
97.3%
Shai Werts pass complete to Davarius Bargnare for 2 yds to the GeoSo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
97.5%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to TEAM, broken up by Marcus HubbardSimilar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
97.5%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to TEAMSimilar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+11
97.5%
Shai Werts run for 11 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
97.3%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 48Similar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 15
OPP 48
0
97.4%
Shai Werts pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 15
OPP 48
+9
97.6%
Shai Werts pass complete to Ellis Richardson for 9 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 6
OPP 39
0
97.3%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Davarius BargnareSimilar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 6
OPP 39
+56
97.8%
Tyler Bass 56 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
99.7%
Derrick Gore run for 4 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-2
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 42Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 8
OWN 42
-1
99.7%
Derrick Gore run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 41Similar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 9
OWN 41
-5
99.7%
UL MONROE Penalty, delay of game (Caleb Evans) to the LaMon 36Similar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 14
OWN 36
0
99.7%
Jared Porter punt for 43 yds , Wesley Kennedy III returns for no gain to the GeoSo 28 Wesley Kennedy III fumbled, recovered by LaMon David GriffithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:15
Timeout UL MONROE, clock 03:15
-24.3
TD · Q2 1:02
Shai Werts pass complete to Mark Michaud for 22 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK) UL MONROE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined
-18.1
TD · Q3 8:31
Derrick Gore run for 1 yd for a TD (Craig Ford KICK)
+15.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com