2018 · Week 10 · Nov 3, 2018 · Brooks Stadium (SC)
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Win probability · CCU
modelCCU aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playCCU scoreAPP score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:30 · Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the AppSt 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q2 6:24: Alex James run for 5 yds to the CCaro 6 — CCU win probability +5.4 pts (now 32%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- TD · Q2 1:40: Jacob Huesman pass complete to Corey Sutton for 33 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +8.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
- SAFETY · Q4 11:33: C. Marable run for -1 yds for a SAFETY — APP win probability +4.5 pts (now 80%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:54: Marcus Williams Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +12.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 6:29: Marcus Williams Jr. run for 18 yds to the AppSt 42 for a 1ST down — APP win probability +4.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9APP made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 15:00APP 4th & 3 at APP 49, tiedClose callPunted · 79.9% before the snapGo for it80.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 13:37CCU 4th & 2 at CCU 10, tiedClose callPunted · 20.7% before the snapGo for it20.8%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 10:16CCU 4th & 6 at CCU 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snapGo for it21.0%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.1%average punt
- Q1 5:49APP 4th & 18 at APP 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 74.8% before the snapGo for it74.5%−0.512% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.0%average punt
- Q1 4:49CCU 4th & 5 at CCU 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 24.7% before the snapGo for it24.8%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.9%average punt
- Q2 15:00APP 4th & 4 at CCU 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call73.0%47% to convertField goal72.9%−0.168% to makePunt70.9%−2.1average punt
- Q2 12:07CCU 4th & 1 at CCU 31, tiedClose callPunted · 29.3% before the snapGo for it29.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.2%−0.6average punt
- Q2 6:24CCU 4th & 13 at CCU 9, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snapGo for it30.0%−1.618% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.6%average punt
- Q3 11:32CCU 4th & 4 at APP 32, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 26.2% before the snapGo for it26.0%48% to convertField goalTheir call24.7%−1.351% to makePunt23.3%−2.7average punt
- Q3 11:32APP 4th & 1 at APP 41, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call77.6%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt76.1%−1.6average punt
- Q3 11:32APP 4th & 22 at CCU 37, up 7Close callPunted · 75.8% before the snapGo for it74.8%−2.18% to convertField goal76.9%40% to makePuntTheir call76.6%−0.2average punt
- Q3 6:40APP 4th & 8 at CCU 45, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.3% before the snapGo for it77.6%−0.334% to convertField goal76.2%−1.625% to makePuntTheir call77.9%average punt
- Q3 5:45CCU 4th & 16 at CCU 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snapGo for it21.7%−3.714% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.4%average punt
- Q4 15:00APP 4th & 2 at CCU 2, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call79.9%48% to convertField goal78.3%−1.694% to makePunt71.3%−8.6average punt
- Q4 9:46CCU 4th & 6 at APP 24, down 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.2%39% to convertField goal7.1%−0.168% to makePunt3.1%−4.1average punt
- Q4 4:23APP 4th & 19 at APP 33, up 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snapGo for it95.7%−1.111% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.8%average punt
- Q4 4:14CCU 4th & 13 at CCU 28, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snapGo for it3.0%−0.319% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.3%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1APP made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 10:16APP Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.2%97% to makeGo for two78.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:57CCU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call24.9%97% to makeGo for two24.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:40APP Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.5%97% to makeGo for two74.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:54APP Touchdown, up 15 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call93.8%−0.197% to makeGo for two93.9%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartAPPDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 13:37
4TH & 2
OWN 10
+20
19.5%
Charles Ouverson punt for 47 yds , Thomas Hennigan returns for 20 yds to the CCaro 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 3TD4 plays · 37 yds · 1:2080% → 80%
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
20.3%
Huesman, Jacob pass complete to Hennigan, Thomas for 9 yards to the CCU28 (Chesley, Anthony), PENALTY APP ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the CCU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 15
OPP 42
+16
20.4%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to Dominique Heath for 16 yds to the CCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
19.7%
Darrynton Evans run for 26 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
APPDrive 5INT TD8 plays · 31 yds · 2:5180% → 77%
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
20.1%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to Malik Williams for 5 yds to the AppSt 36Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+9
19.9%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to Collin Reed for 9 yds to the CCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+5
19.9%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the CCaro 38Similar
Q1 5:57
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+60
22.7%
Jacob Huesman pass intercepted for a TD Derambez Drinkard return for 60 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q1 5:49
3RD & 9
OWN 38
-9
23.4%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to Dominique Heath for 6 yds to the AppSt 44 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the AppSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
APPDrive 8DOWNS8 plays · 49 yds · 3:0275% → 74%
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+25
24.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 25 yds to the CCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0827% → 28%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-7
27.4%
Fred Payton run for a loss of 7 yards to the CCaro 13 Fred Payton fumbled, forced by Chris Willis, recovered by CCaro CJ MarableSimilar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 19
OWN 13
+5
27.3%
Fred Payton pass complete to Ky'Jon Tyler for 5 yds to the CCaro 18Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 14
OWN 18
+13
26.7%
Fred Payton pass complete to Marcus Outlow for 13 yds to the CCaro 31Similar
Q2 12:07
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
27.9%
Charles Ouverson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10INT13 plays · 65 yds · 0:0073% → 74%
Q2 12:00
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+30
27.1%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 15 yds to the CCaro 45 for a 1ST down COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Anthony Chesley) to the CCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
25.9%
Huesman, Jacob pass incomplete to Hennigan, Thomas (Jackson, Tarron), PENALTY APP false start 5 yards to the CCU9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
26.1%
Jacob Huesman pass intercepted Derambez Drinkard return for no gain to the CCaro 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0032% → 30%
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-10
32.0%
Fred Payton sacked by Jordan Fehr for a loss of 8 yards to the CCaro 4 COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, intentional grounding (Fred Payton) to the CCaro 2Similar
Q2 6:24
4TH & 13
OWN 9
+5
29.9%
Charles Ouverson punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CCaro 46 , Clifton Duck returns for 5 yds to the CCaro 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12TD5 plays · 46 yds · 1:5172% → 81%
CCUDrive 13END OF HALF8 plays · 31 yds · 1:2923% → 24%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
25.2%
Fred Payton pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 10 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
26.1%
Fred Payton sacked by Jordan Fehr for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 44Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 13
OPP 44
0
23.6%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to Malcolm Williams, broken up by Clifton Duck COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 14MISSED FG8 plays · 43 yds · 3:2824% → 25%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
23.7%
Fred Payton pass complete to Ky'Jon Tyler for 23 yds to the CCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
25.8%
Fred Payton pass complete to CJ Marable for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+2
24.6%
Fred Payton run for 2 yds to the AppSt 38 Fred Payton fumbled, forced by Akeem Davis-Gaither, recovered by CCaro Ky'Jon Tyler for a 1ST down , return for 13 yds to the AppSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:32
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+50
25.4%
Massimo Biscardi 50 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Tae Hayes TEAM return for no gain to the AppSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15PUNT11 plays · 31 yds · 0:0078% → 76%
Q3 11:32
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+2
21.7%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to Dominique Heath for 2 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+31
21.3%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to Dominique Heath for 31 yds to the CCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-8
20.4%
Jacob Huesman sacked by Teddy Gallagher for a loss of 8 yards to the CCaro 33Similar
Q3 11:32
4TH & 17
OPP 32
-5
23.8%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the CCaro 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 16INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
24.5%
Fred Payton pass intercepted Josh Thomas return for no gain to the CCaro 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q3 6:40
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
22.2%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ky'Jon Tyler at the CCaro 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 18PUNT9 plays · 16 yds · 0:0025% → 23%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
24.6%
Fred Payton pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 6 yds to the CCaro 15Similar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
25.0%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, illegal procedure (Trey Carter) to the CCaro 15Similar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+5
24.9%
Fred Payton pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 5 yds to the CCaro 20Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+11
25.0%
Fred Payton pass complete to Ky'Jon Tyler for 11 yds to the CCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-9
25.6%
Fred Payton sacked by Jordan Fehr for a loss of 9 yards to the CCaro 22Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 19
OWN 22
+3
23.7%
Fred Payton pass complete to Marcus Outlow for 3 yds to the CCaro 25Similar
Q3 5:45
4TH & 16
OWN 25
+15
23.2%
Charles Ouverson punt for 50 yds , Clifton Duck returns for 15 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19DOWNS9 plays · 59 yds · 1:3380% → 79%
Q3 1:33
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+13
21.5%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to Marcus Williams Jr. for 13 yds to the CCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 20SF3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
APPDrive 21TD3 plays · 44 yds · 1:3283% → 96%
Q4 9:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
3.8%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 22DOWNS10 plays · 45 yds · 0:007% → 8%
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
6.7%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to T'Qele Holmes for 17 yds to the CCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+6
8.6%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 6 yds to the AppSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:46
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
8.3%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Malcolm Williams, broken up by MyQuon StoutSimilar
Q4 9:46
4TH & 6
OPP 24
0
7.6%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Malcolm Williams, broken up by Akeem Davis-GaitherSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 2:0697% → 98%
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+18
3.3%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 18 yds to the AppSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
3RD & 12
OWN 40
-7
3.1%
Jacob Huesman sacked by Jeffrey Gunter for a loss of 7 yards to the AppSt 33Similar
Q4 4:23
4TH & 19
OWN 33
0
2.4%
Clayton Howell punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Ky'Jon Tyler at the CCaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 24PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 0:003% → 3%
APPDrive 25Uncategorized7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0698% → 98%
Q4 2:30
2ND & 12
OWN 26
-1
1.8%
Darrynton Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 25 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:54
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Chandler Staton KICK)
-12.2
TD · Q2 1:40
Jacob Huesman pass complete to Corey Sutton for 33 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)
-8.7
KEY PLAY · Q2 6:24
Alex James run for 5 yds to the CCaro 6
+5.4