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TROY

Troy 38 at South Alabama 17

USA
2018 · Week 9 · Oct 23, 2018 · Ladd Peebles Stadium
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Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:42 · Sawyer Smith pass complete to Tray Eafford for 10 yds to the SAlab 25 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 21Home team on offense−1.6Pregame prior−22.4Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:09: Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 44 yds for a TD TROY Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 8 (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +3.9 pts (now 74%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:53: B.J. Smith run for 36 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +5.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:08: Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 3 yds for a TD (Sidney Davis pass to Sawyer Smith for Two-Point Conversion) — TROY win probability +8.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 3:28: Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 31 yds for a TD (Gavin Patterson KICK) — USA win probability +5.8 pts (now 21%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:39: Sawyer Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +3.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 11:10USA 4th & 22 at USA 13, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:42TROY 4th & 4 at USA 35, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    73.0%−0.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    72.9%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:09TROY 4th & 5 at USA 20, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    70.9%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:38USA 4th & 5 at USA 43, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:59USA 4th & 16 at TROY 27, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−1.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    18.4%−2.9
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:00TROY 4th & 2 at TROY 37, up 14
    Close callPunted · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.9%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:56USA 4th & 14 at USA 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:14TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 49, up 14
    Close callPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.2%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:50USA 4th & 6 at TROY 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    6.8%−5.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:50TROY 4th & 7 at TROY 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:39USA 4th & 9 at TROY 36, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    6.5%
    42% to make
    Punt
    5.5%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:51USA 4th & 17 at USA 43, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−<0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TROY made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 13:07TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    74.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:58USA Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:09TROY Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:53TROY Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:08TROY Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    84.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:28USA Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:39TROY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 1:4875% → 74%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
25.3%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 31Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+3
25.6%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+20
25.8%
Sawyer Smith run for 5 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
25.8%
TROY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 49Similar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+45
26.0%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 45 yds to the SAlab 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
25.7%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 1:4026% → 26%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
25.9%
Tra Minter run for 1 yd to the SAlab 26Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-4
26.1%
Kawaan Baker run for a loss of 4 yards to the SAlab 22Similar
Q1 11:31
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-9
26.1%
Evan Orth sacked by Hunter Reese for a loss of 9 yards to the SAlab 13Similar
Q1 11:10
4TH & 22
OWN 13
+42
26.1%
Corliss Waitman punt for 27 yds, downed at the Troy 40 TROY Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Troy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3FG
12 plays · 35 yds · 4:4874% → 74%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
26.3%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Jabir Daughtry-Frye for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 5
50
-1
26.4%
B.J. Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 49Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+5
26.7%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the SAlab 46Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+5
26.7%
B.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
26.7%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the SAlab 40Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+5
26.8%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Richard Hallman for 5 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 4
OPP 35
0
26.8%
Sawyer Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:42
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+10
27.1%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Tray Eafford for 10 yds to the SAlab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
26.6%
Sawyer Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
26.7%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the SAlab 24Similar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+4
27.0%
Sawyer Smith run for 4 yds to the SAlab 20Similar
Q1 6:09
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+37
26.0%
Tyler Sumpter 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 1:5027% → 31%
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+38
26.8%
Evan Orth pass complete to Tra Minter for 38 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
27.9%
Evan Orth run for 2 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+15
28.0%
TROY Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Troy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-3
28.1%
Deonta Moore run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 19Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 13
OPP 19
+3
28.1%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds to the Troy 16Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+16
30.7%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jordan McCray for 16 yds for a TD (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5TD
3 plays · 74 yds · 0:4371% → 74%
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+30
29.5%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 30 yds to the SAlab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
25.7%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 44 yds for a TD TROY Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 8 (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:1926% → 26%
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
26.2%
Evan Orth pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 9 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
26.8%
Tra Minter run for 4 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
26.3%
Tra Minter run for 5 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
26.7%
Evan Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
26.2%
Evan Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:38
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
25.8%
Corliss Waitman punt for 53 yds , Marcus Jones returns for no gain to the Troy 43 TROY Penalty, Illegal Block (2 Yards) to the Troy 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7TD
5 plays · 98 yds · 1:1773% → 80%
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
27.0%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 5Similar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+56
27.1%
B.J. Smith run for 56 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
25.7%
Sawyer Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+3
25.7%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the SAlab 36Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+36
19.8%
B.J. Smith run for 36 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8FG
13 plays · 48 yds · 5:4522% → 23%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
22.2%
Tra Minter run for 22 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
23.0%
Tra Minter run for 1 yd to the SAlab 48Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+11
22.7%
Evan Orth pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 11 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
22.7%
Evan Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+1
22.6%
Kawaan Baker run for 1 yd to the Troy 40Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+9
22.1%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 9 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
22.4%
Tra Minter run for 5 yds to the Troy 26Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+5
22.3%
Tra Minter run for 5 yds to the Troy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
22.2%
Evan Orth run for 5 yds to the Troy 16Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 5
OPP 16
0
22.1%
Evan Orth pass complete to Maurice Mayo for no gain to the Troy 16Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 5
OPP 16
-11
21.8%
Evan Orth sacked by Will Sunderland and Tron Folsom for a loss of 11 yards to the Troy 27Similar
Q2 8:59
4TH & 16
OPP 27
+44
22.9%
Gavin Patterson 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 1:2678% → 88%
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+61
22.1%
Deondre Douglas run for 61 yds to the SAlab 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
21.9%
Sawyer Smith run for 1 yd to the SAlab 5Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
21.2%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the SAlab 3Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
12.3%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 3 yds for a TD (Sidney Davis pass to Sawyer Smith for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2915% → 21%
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
14.6%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+26
14.5%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jordan McCray for 26 yds to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
15.6%
Tra Minter run for 2 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+7
15.2%
Maurice Mayo run for 7 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+2
15.2%
Evan Orth run for 2 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
15.2%
Tra Minter run for 4 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+31
21.0%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 31 yds for a TD (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11INT
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:2681% → 84%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
19.1%
Sidney Davis run for 8 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+1
18.5%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 32Similar
Q2 2:01
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+1
18.7%
Sawyer Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
17.6%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
16.6%
Sawyer Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
16.6%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for no gain to the Troy 48Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+19
16.5%
Sawyer Smith pass intercepted Sterrling Fisher return for 4 yds to the SOUTHALA 48 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the SAlab 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12FUMBLE
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:2418% → 19%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
18.3%
Evan Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+9
18.1%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 9 yds to the SAlab 37Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 1
OWN 37
-2
18.7%
Tra Minter run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+60
21.5%
Evan Orth pass intercepted Cedarius Rookard return for 60 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14INT
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:4418% → 19%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
18.3%
Kawaan Baker run for 8 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
19.0%
Evan Orth run for 6 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
19.3%
Evan Orth pass intercepted Marcus Jones return for no gain to the Troy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5083% → 83%
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
17.1%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 28Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+1
17.1%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 1 yd to the Troy 29Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+8
17.0%
B.J. Smith run for 8 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q3 12:00
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
16.9%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tra Minter at the SAlab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 4:5217% → 15%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
17.3%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+1
16.9%
Tra Minter run for 1 yd to the SAlab 28Similar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+9
16.1%
Evan Orth pass complete to Malik Stanley for 9 yds to the SAlab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
16.6%
Cephus Johnson run for no gain to the SAlab 37Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+16
16.2%
Evan Orth pass complete to Khameron Taylor for 16 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
17.9%
Tra Minter run for 5 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+1
17.5%
Evan Orth run for 1 yd to the Troy 41Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 4
OPP 41
-10
16.8%
Evan Orth sacked by Will Choloh Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the SAlab 49Similar
Q3 6:56
4TH & 14
OWN 49
0
15.2%
Corliss Waitman punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:3887% → 88%
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
12.9%
Sawyer Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
12.9%
B.J. Smith run for no gain to the Troy 20Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-5
13.3%
Sawyer Smith run for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 15Similar
Q3 5:27
4TH & 15
OWN 15
+15
13.3%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (15 Yards) to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-15
12.4%
TROY Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the Troy 15Similar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 25
OWN 15
+28
12.6%
B.J. Smith run for 28 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
11.3%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 3 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+3
11.0%
Sawyer Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
11.0%
Sawyer Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:14
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
11.8%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 48 yds, downed at the SAlab 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18MISSED FG
13 plays · 74 yds · 6:0313% → 13%
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
12.8%
Tra Minter run for 1 yd to the SAlab 4Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+17
12.6%
Tra Minter run for 17 yds to the SAlab 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
12.4%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 5 yds to the SAlab 26Similar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+3
12.6%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q3 0:53
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+6
12.6%
Tra Minter run for 6 yds to the SAlab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
12.4%
Kawaan Baker run for 3 yds to the SAlab 38Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+10
13.1%
Tywun Walters run for 10 yds to the SAlab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
13.7%
Tywun Walters run for 7 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+18
14.2%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jordan McCray for 18 yds to the Troy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
14.2%
Tra Minter run for 2 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+2
14.2%
Tra Minter run for 2 yds to the Troy 23Similar
Q4 12:41
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
13.6%
Maurice Mayo run for no gain to the Troy 23Similar
Q4 11:50
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+40
12.7%
Gavin Patterson 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:4592% → 94%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
7.6%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+1
7.1%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 28Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 5
OWN 28
-2
7.0%
B.J. Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 26Similar
Q4 9:50
4TH & 7
OWN 26
0
6.5%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Tra Minter at the SAlab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20INT
12 plays · 62 yds · 4:099% → 5%
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
8.9%
Kawaan Baker run for 2 yds to the SAlab 26Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+12
7.7%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 12 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
8.2%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 14 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
8.0%
Tra Minter run for no gain to the Troy 48Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+11
7.7%
Evan Orth pass complete to Tra Minter for 11 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
7.2%
Jamarius Way run for 1 yd to the Troy 36Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 9
OPP 36
0
7.1%
Evan Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 9
OPP 36
0
6.9%
Evan Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:39
4TH & 9
OPP 36
+16
6.4%
Evan Orth pass complete to Malik Stanley for 16 yds to the Troy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
7.3%
Tra Minter run for 6 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 4
OPP 14
0
7.3%
Evan Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 4
OWN 12
+98
5.1%
Evan Orth pass intercepted Terence Dunlap return for 88 yds to the SAlab 0 TROY Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the SAlab 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21TD
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:5196% → 99%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
4.3%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (11 Yards) to the SAlab 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
4.1%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 10 yds to the SAlab 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.8%
Sawyer Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:441% → 1%
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.2%
Evan Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+25
1.1%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
50
-8
1.2%
Evan Orth sacked by Will Choloh Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the SAlab 42Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 18
OWN 42
+1
1.0%
Cephus Johnson run for 1 yd to the SAlab 43Similar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 17
OWN 43
0
1.0%
Cephus Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:51
4TH & 17
OWN 43
0
0.9%
Corliss Waitman punt for 43 yds, downed at the Troy 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23Uncategorized
4 plays · 35 yds · 2:0999% → 100%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+15
0.6%
B.J. Smith run for no gain to the Troy 14 for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
0.5%
B.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+3
0.4%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+12
0.4%
B.J. Smith run for 12 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:08
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 3 yds for a TD (Sidney Davis pass to Sawyer Smith for Two-Point Conversion)
-8.9
TD · Q2 14:53
B.J. Smith run for 36 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)
-5.9
TD · Q2 3:28
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 31 yds for a TD (Gavin Patterson KICK)
+5.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com