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TXST

Texas State 14 at UL Monroe 20

ULM
2018 · Week 8 · Oct 20, 2018 · Malone Stadium
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Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:42 · Clayton Stewart 30 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 130Pregame prior+7.1Home team on offense+15.8Garbage-time factor+3.8Score differential+7.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.3Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:41: Caleb Evans pass complete to Brandius Batiste for 27 yds for a TD (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +5.1 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 0:44: Craig Ford 30 yd FG GOOD — ULM win probability +6.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:18: Robert Brown Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD (Clayton Stewart KICK) — TXST win probability +18.9 pts (now 29%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:14: Anthony D. Taylor run for 21 yds to the LaMon 25 for a 1ST down — TXST win probability +11.3 pts (now 27%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:39: Derrick Gore run for 1 yd to the LaMon 5 — ULM win probability +9.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6TXST made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00ULM 4th & 4 at ULM 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:19TXST 4th & 14 at TXST 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:47TXST 4th & 14 at TXST 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:43ULM 4th & 10 at TXST 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    73.5%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:10ULM 4th & 19 at TXST 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%−1.0
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    69.1%−2.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:10TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:03TXST 4th & 6 at ULM 38, down 10
    Close callPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    20.0%−0.2
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00TXST 4th & 18 at TXST 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−1.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:18ULM 4th & 12 at ULM 25, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−2.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:34TXST 4th & 9 at TXST 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:44ULM 4th & 10 at TXST 13, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    80.7%−5.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:42TXST 4th & 11 at ULM 13, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−1.3
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−4.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:18ULM 4th & 11 at ULM 15, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%−3.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:14TXST 4th & 20 at ULM 35, down 6
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.8 ptsPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−3.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    18.7%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%−3.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:38TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:47ULM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:41ULM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:18TXST Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
79.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 6 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 27
0
79.2%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 27
0
79.2%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
79.2%
Jared Porter punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
79.0%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+8
79.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 8 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
79.0%
Vitt,Tyler rush for 2 yards to the TXST44 (Griffith, David;Johnson, Jabari), PENALTY TXST holding (Brewer,Aaron) 10 yards to the TXST32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:19
1ST & 20
OWN 32
+10
79.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 10 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
79.0%
Tyler Vitt run for 3 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q1 14:19
3RD & 7
OWN 45
-7
79.0%
Tyler Vitt sacked by Logan Latin and Cortez Sisco Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSt 38Similar
Q1 14:19
4TH & 14
OWN 38
0
79.1%
Clayton Stewart punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3FUMBLE
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
78.2%
Derrick Gore run for 6 yds to the LaMon 26Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-6
78.2%
Marcus Green run for a loss of 6 yards to the LaMon 20Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+3
78.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 3 yds Markis McCray fumbled, forced by Ishmael Davis, recovered by TexSt Ishmael DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4TD
3 plays · 21 yds · 1:0823% → 25%
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
77.3%
Tyler Vitt run for 7 yds to the LaMon 14Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+7
77.3%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 7 yds to the LaMon 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
75.0%
Tyler Vitt run for 7 yds for a TD (Clayton Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5176% → 78%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
75.7%
Derrick Gore run for 3 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+60
75.7%
Marcus Green run for 60 yds to the TexSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
76.4%
Caleb Evans run for 8 yds to the TexSt 4Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+2
76.4%
Austin Vaughn run for 2 yds to the TexSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
77.8%
Austin Vaughn run for 2 yds for a TD (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
77.0%
Robert Brown Jr. run for no gain to the TexSt 2Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+25
77.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 10 yds to the TexSt 12 for a 1ST down UL MONROE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
76.8%
Robert Brown Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 26Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 11
OWN 26
-4
76.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Robert Brown Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 22Similar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 15
OWN 22
+1
77.1%
Tyler Vitt run for 1 yd to the TexSt 23Similar
Q1 6:47
4TH & 14
OWN 23
0
77.3%
Clayton Stewart punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
76.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Zachari Jackson for 11 yds to the LaMon 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
76.7%
Austin Vaughn run for 4 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 6
OWN 46
-2
76.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 44Similar
Q1 3:43
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+15
76.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Zachari Jackson for 15 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
77.0%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
76.9%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Zachari JacksonSimilar
Q1 3:43
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
76.6%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Zachari JacksonSimilar
Q1 3:43
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
75.9%
Mark Deaves punt for 25 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:3125% → 25%
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
74.8%
Caleb Twyford run for 2 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+14
74.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Mason Hays for 14 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
74.6%
Caleb Twyford run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+2
74.3%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
74.7%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
75.0%
Clayton Stewart punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9FG
11 plays · 37 yds · 2:5275% → 74%
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
75.2%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
75.1%
Caleb Evans run for 3 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q2 14:02
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+7
74.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 7 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
75.9%
Derrick Gore run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 7
50
+23
76.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Austin Vaughn for 8 yds to the ULMONROE 42 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, personal foul (TEAM) to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
76.1%
Evans, Caleb pass intercepted by Waddy,JaShon at the ULM0, Waddy,JaShon return to the ULM0, clock 12:11, PENALTY TXST holding (Morris,Jarron) 10 yards to the TXST17, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
76.1%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-4
76.1%
Markis McCray run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 21Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 14
OPP 21
-5
74.7%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (Bobby Reynolds) to the TexSt 26Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 19
OPP 26
0
74.7%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus Green, broken up by JaShon WaddySimilar
Q2 11:10
4TH & 19
OPP 26
+43
74.2%
Craig Ford 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.2%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Jeremiah Haydel, broken up by Jabari JohnsonSimilar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
75.3%
Caleb Twyford run for 12 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
74.8%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
74.3%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+2
74.9%
Tyler Vitt run for 2 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q2 11:10
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
75.5%
Clayton Stewart punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11TD
10 plays · 84 yds · 4:2275% → 82%
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
74.5%
Kayin White run for 14 yds to the LaMon 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
74.7%
Marcus Green run for 4 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+7
75.1%
Caleb Evans run for 7 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
75.6%
Kayin White run for 4 yds to the LaMon 45Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+13
75.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 13 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
76.2%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Markis McCraySimilar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+10
76.1%
Caleb Evans run for 10 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
76.6%
Derrick Gore run for 2 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+3
76.6%
Derrick Gore run for 3 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+27
81.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Brandius Batiste for 27 yds for a TD (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 47 yds · 3:3819% → 17%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
80.8%
Tyler Vitt run for 3 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+21
80.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Mason Hays for 6 yds to the TexSt 24 for a 1ST down UL MONROE Penalty, personal foul (Chase Day) to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+19
79.9%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 19 yds to the LaMon 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
79.2%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 7
OPP 39
-2
79.2%
Caleb Twyford run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 41Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+3
81.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Robert Brown Jr. for 3 yds to the LaMon 38Similar
Q2 1:03
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
82.6%
Clayton Stewart punt for 37 yds, downed at the LaMon 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
83.2%
Caleb Evans run for 1 yd to the LaMon 2Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+1
83.1%
Caleb Evans run for 1 yd to the LaMon 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.4%
Caleb Twyford run for no gain to the TexSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
81.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 7 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
81.4%
Tyler Vitt run for 5 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
80.8%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 18 yds to the LaMon 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
79.7%
Anthony D. Taylor run for no gain to the LaMon 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
79.8%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Jeremiah HaydelSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-8
80.6%
Tyler Vitt sacked by Kerry Starks for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 47Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 18
OWN 47
0
82.2%
Clayton Stewart punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
83.4%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to R.J. Turner, broken up by Clifton Lewis Jr.Similar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+10
83.1%
Caleb Evans run for 10 yds to the LaMon 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
83.5%
Derrick Gore run for 3 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 7
OWN 30
-2
83.5%
Caleb Evans sacked by Caeveon Patton for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 28Similar
Q3 11:18
3RD & 9
OWN 28
-3
82.6%
Caleb Evans sacked by Ishmael Davis for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 25Similar
Q3 11:18
4TH & 12
OWN 25
0
81.9%
Jared Porter punt for 51 yds, downed at the TexSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
83.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 5 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+3
83.0%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q3 8:34
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+1
83.3%
Keenen Brown run for 1 yd to the TexSt 33Similar
Q3 8:34
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+6
83.9%
Stewart,Clayton punt 48 yards to the ULM19, Green, Marcus return to the ULM19, PENALTY ULM roughing the kicker (Reynaud, K.) 6 yards to the TXST39, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-6
82.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 33Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 16
OWN 33
0
83.6%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Clifton Lewis Jr.Similar
Q3 8:34
3RD & 16
OWN 33
+7
84.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 7 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q3 8:34
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
84.3%
Clayton Stewart punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 4:4185% → 92%
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
84.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to R.J. Turner for 6 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+15
85.3%
Austin Vaughn run for 15 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
86.0%
Austin Vaughn run for 9 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+3
86.2%
Austin Vaughn run for 3 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
86.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Austin Vaughn for 9 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+3
86.3%
Kayin White run for 3 yds to the TexSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
86.3%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Markis McCray, broken up by Frankie GriffinSimilar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+5
86.3%
Caleb Evans run for 5 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+11
85.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 11 yds to the TexSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
86.3%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to D'Marius GillespieSimilar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
86.3%
Kayin White run for no gain to the TexSt 13Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
85.6%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Kayin WhiteSimilar
Q3 0:44
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+30
91.6%
Craig Ford 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18MISSED FG
9 plays · 62 yds · 2:029% → 10%
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.6%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+41
90.3%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 26 yds to the ULMONROE 47 for a 1ST down UL MONROE Penalty, roughing passer (Mason Husmann) to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
88.1%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Tyler WattsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+20
88.3%
Tyler Vitt run for 20 yds to the LaMon 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
87.9%
Anthony D. Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 13
0
88.1%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Keenen BrownSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 13
0
89.2%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete, broken up by Larance ShawSimilar
Q4 13:42
4TH & 11
OPP 13
+30
90.2%
Clayton Stewart 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19FUMBLE
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
93.7%
Caleb Evans run for 7 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+4
93.9%
Marcus Green run for 4 yds to the LaMon 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
93.9%
Austin Vaughn run for 2 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+13
93.9%
Caleb Evans run for 13 yds to the LaMon 49 Caleb Evans fumbled, forced by Nikolas Daniels, recovered by LaMon Caleb Evans for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
94.3%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to R.J. TurnerSimilar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
94.2%
Austin Vaughn run for 2 yds to the LaMon 46 Austin Vaughn fumbled, forced by Clifton Lewis Jr., recovered by TexSt Clifton Lewis Jr. , return for 5 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20TD
9 plays · 46 yds · 3:569% → 29%
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
90.8%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 7 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+2
90.4%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 1
OPP 37
0
90.5%
Anthony D. Taylor run for no gain to the LaMon 37Similar
Q4 11:14
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+6
91.2%
Vitt,Tyler rush for 2 yards to the ULM35 (Day, Chase), PENALTY ULM offside (Louis Jr., D.) 6 yards to the ULM31, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-3
90.0%
Caleb Twyford run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 34Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 13
OPP 34
0
90.2%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Jeremiah HaydelSimilar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 13
OPP 34
+14
91.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Mason Hays for 14 yds to the LaMon 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+16
89.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Elijah Rogers for 11 yds to the LaMon 9 for a 1ST down UL MONROE Penalty, face mask (5 yards) (Austin Hawley) to the LaMon 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
70.9%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD (Clayton Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0087% → 85%
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
86.6%
Derrick Gore run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 15Similar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 11
OWN 15
0
86.2%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Markis McCray, broken up by Bryan London IISimilar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 11
OWN 15
0
85.4%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Markis McCraySimilar
Q4 7:18
4TH & 11
OWN 15
+10
84.8%
Jared Porter punt for 41 yds , Hutch White returns for 10 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0027% → 20%
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+21
73.5%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 21 yds to the LaMon 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
70.8%
Vitt,Tyler rush for 5 yards to the ULM20 (Harding, R.;Griffith, David), PENALTY TXST illegal block (Cooks,Kylar) 10 yards to the ULM35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 20
OPP 35
+4
73.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Robert Brown Jr. for 4 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 16
OPP 31
-4
74.2%
Tyler Vitt sacked by Ty Shelby for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 35Similar
Q4 6:14
3RD & 20
OPP 35
0
76.8%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Hutch WhiteSimilar
Q4 6:14
4TH & 20
OPP 35
0
79.8%
Clayton Stewart punt for 31 yds, downed at the LaMon 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23END OF GAME
13 plays · 47 yds · 2:2789% → 96%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
89.1%
Derrick Gore run for 1 yd to the LaMon 5Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+12
88.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 12 yds to the LaMon 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
93.2%
Derrick Gore run for 2 yds to the LaMon 19Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+18
93.6%
Caleb Evans run for 18 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
94.8%
Derrick Gore run for 2 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+3
95.0%
Derrick Gore run for 3 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+4
95.6%
Caleb Evans run for 4 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+6
95.2%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, Defensive offside (Ishmael Davis) to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
95.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:18
Robert Brown Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD (Clayton Stewart KICK)
-18.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 6:14
Anthony D. Taylor run for 21 yds to the LaMon 25 for a 1ST down
-11.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:39
Derrick Gore run for 1 yd to the LaMon 5
+9.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com