Try the model
UL

Louisiana 17 at App State 27

APP
2018 · Week 8 · Oct 20, 2018 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:21 · Zac Thomas punt for 39 yds, downed at the LaLaf 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 113Pregame prior+24.4Home team on offense+14.5Score differential+6.3Garbage-time factor+4.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:41: Levi Lewis pass complete to Elijah Mitchell for 38 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK) — UL win probability +3.6 pts (now 12%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 9:02: Kyle Pfau 43 yd FG GOOD — UL win probability +3.1 pts (now 16%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:11: Zac Thomas pass complete to Darrynton Evans for 20 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +2.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 14:01: Marcus Williams Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +5.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:03: Trey Ragas run for 27 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK) — UL win probability +3.3 pts (now 5%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 8 of 9UL made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00UL 4th & 2 at UL 31, tied
    Close callPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:53APP 4th & 6 at APP 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:08UL 4th & 10 at UL 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:20APP 4th & 3 at UL 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    92.1%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    91.7%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:10APP 4th & 12 at UL 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.9%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    88.2%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:02UL 4th & 3 at APP 26, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.8%−0.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−1.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:46UL 4th & 13 at UL 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−0.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:11UL 4th & 3 at UL 32, down 7
    Close callPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:33APP 4th & 9 at APP 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:54UL 4th & 4 at UL 38, down 14
    Close callPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:21APP 4th & 3 at APP 47, up 14
    Close callPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:17UL 4th & 11 at UL 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:34APP 4th & 11 at APP 11, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%−1.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00UL 4th & 2 at APP 12, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    5.9%−0.6
    86% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−5.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:10APP 4th & 17 at APP 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−1.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:07UL 4th & 4 at UL 18, down 14
    Close callPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:29APP 4th & 1 at UL 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    95.6%−0.9
    66% to make
    Punt
    93.1%−3.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:46APP 4th & 9 at UL 11, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    95.8%−1.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:34UL 4th & 3 at APP 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    5.5%−0.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 3:46APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:41UL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:11APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:01APP Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:03UL Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
93.0%
Trey Ragas run for no gain to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+3
93.0%
Trey Ragas run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+5
93.0%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Matt Barnes for 5 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 31
+1
93.0%
Rhys Byrns punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 28 , Clifton Duck returns for 1 yd to the AppSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
92.5%
Darrynton Evans run for 4 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
92.5%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Corey Sutton, broken up by Terik MillerSimilar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
92.5%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas HenniganSimilar
Q1 12:53
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
92.5%
Clayton Howell punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
92.3%
Elijah Mitchell run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 40 Elijah Mitchell fumbled, forced by Anthony Flory, recovered by LaLaf Ken MarksSimilar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+2
92.2%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q1 12:08
3RD & 5
OWN 42
-5
92.2%
LOUISIANA Penalty, false start (Jarrod Jackson) to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q1 12:08
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
92.3%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Raymond CalaisSimilar
Q1 12:08
4TH & 10
OWN 37
+11
92.3%
Rhys Byrns punt for 51 yds , Clifton Duck returns for 11 yds to the AppSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4DOWNS
12 plays · 49 yds · 3:4492% → 91%
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
91.8%
Darrynton Evans run for 5 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+10
91.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Dominique Heath for 10 yds to the AppSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
91.8%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the AppSt 39Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+15
91.8%
Thomas, Zac pass incomplete to Hennigan, T., PENALTY LA personal foul (Garror,Eric) 15 yards to the LA46, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
92.0%
Darrynton Evans run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
91.9%
Darrynton Evans run for no gain to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+9
91.9%
Zac Thomas run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
92.0%
Darrynton Evans run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 4
OPP 29
0
92.0%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+1
90.9%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q1 6:20
4TH & 3
OPP 28
0
90.7%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for no gain to the LaLaf 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5FUMBLE
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
90.2%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Ryheem Malone, broken up by Akeem Davis-GaitherSimilar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-4
90.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaLaf 25 TEAM fumbled, recovered by AppSt Jordan FehrSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:3691% → 92%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+17
90.7%
Darrynton Evans run for 17 yds to the LaLaf 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
90.7%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas HenniganSimilar
Q1 5:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-15
90.7%
Evans, D. rush for 1 yard to the LA7 (Turner,Corey), PENALTY APP illegal block (Reed, Collin) 15 yards to the LA23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 23
+14
90.6%
Zac Thomas run for 14 yds to the LaLaf 9Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
90.6%
Thomas, Zac pass incomplete to Virgil, Jalen, PENALTY LA pass interference (Jacquet,Michael) 7 yards to the LA2, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.6%
Darrynton Evans run for 2 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:059% → 12%
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
91.2%
Levi Lewis sacked by Demetrius Taylor and Akeem Davis-Gaither for a loss of 4 yards to the LaLaf 21Similar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+20
91.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 20 yds to the LaLaf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
90.9%
Trey Ragas run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 1
50
+6
90.7%
Trey Ragas run for 6 yds to the AppSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
90.7%
Levi Lewis run for 4 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+2
90.7%
Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
91.2%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Matt Barnes, broken up by Anthony FlorySimilar
Q1 0:41
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+38
87.6%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Elijah Mitchell for 38 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 2:2589% → 88%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
88.8%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 6 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+23
89.2%
Williams, Marc. rush for 8 yards to the 50 yardline (Mapieu,Masry;Wallace,Deuce), PENALTY LA personal foul (McCaskill,L.) 23 yards to the LA35, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
89.4%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+11
89.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Dominique Heath for 11 yds to the LaLaf 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
89.3%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 0
0
88.2%
Thomas, Zac pass incomplete to Pearson, Henry, PENALTY APP holding off-setting, PENALTY LA pass interference off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 20
-3
89.3%
Darrynton Evans run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 23
0
88.9%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Corey Sutton, broken up by Bennie HigginsSimilar
Q2 13:10
4TH & 12
OPP 23
+40
88.0%
Chandler Staton 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 4:0812% → 16%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
88.3%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Matt Barnes for 15 yds to the LaLaf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
87.7%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+9
87.7%
Trey Ragas run for 9 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
87.4%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd to the AppSt 48Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+15
87.5%
Elijah Mitchell run for 15 yds to the AppSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
87.1%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Jamal Bell for 3 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 7
OPP 30
-1
87.0%
Elijah Mitchell run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 31Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+5
87.5%
Elijah Mitchell run for 5 yds to the AppSt 26Similar
Q2 9:02
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+43
84.4%
Kyle Pfau 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
86.0%
Zac Thomas pass intercepted Eric Garror return for no gain to the LaLaf 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0016% → 14%
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
84.2%
LOUISIANA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+3
84.9%
Raymond Calais run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 12
OWN 36
0
84.8%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Matt BarnesSimilar
Q2 8:46
3RD & 12
OWN 36
-1
85.2%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Andre Nunez for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q2 8:46
4TH & 13
OWN 35
0
85.6%
Rhys Byrns punt for 38 yds, downed at the AppSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 5:1785% → 89%
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
85.2%
Darrynton Evans run for 11 yds to the AppSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
85.8%
Darrynton Evans run for 13 yds to the LaLaf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
86.4%
Darrynton Evans run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 8
OPP 47
-5
86.4%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (Chandler Greer) to the AppSt 48Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 13
OWN 48
+1
85.7%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 1 yd to the AppSt 49Similar
Q2 7:28
3RD & 12
OWN 49
+14
85.1%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 14 yds to the LaLaf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
86.5%
Darrynton Evans run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+2
86.7%
Darrynton Evans run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q2 7:28
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+7
86.3%
Zac Thomas run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
86.7%
Darrynton Evans run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+20
89.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Darrynton Evans for 20 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
87.5%
Trey Ragas run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
86.7%
Trey Ragas run for no gain to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
87.4%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Ryheem MaloneSimilar
Q2 2:11
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
87.9%
Rhys Byrns punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Clifton Duck at the AppSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:2288% → 88%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
88.0%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-2
88.3%
D'Andre Hicks run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 38Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
88.2%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Dominique Heath, broken up by Eric GarrorSimilar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 9
OWN 38
+6
87.5%
Clayton Howell punt for 43 yds , Ryheem Malone returns for 6 yds to the LaLaf 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:0913% → 13%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
86.8%
Raymond Calais run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
87.0%
Raymond Calais run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16TD
4 plays · 73 yds · 0:5988% → 93%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
88.0%
Darrynton Evans run for 2 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+65
87.9%
Darrynton Evans run for 65 yds to the LaLaf 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
93.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
92.2%
Trey Ragas run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q3 13:54
2ND & 12
OWN 30
0
92.6%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Jarrod Jackson, broken up by Tae HayesSimilar
Q3 13:54
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+8
92.7%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Johnny Lumpkin for 8 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q3 13:54
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
92.4%
Rhys Byrns punt for 45 yds, downed at the AppSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
92.9%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the AppSt 18Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 9
OWN 18
-1
92.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Dominique Heath for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 17Similar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+5
92.5%
LOUISIANA Penalty, Defensive offside (Chaiziere Malbrue) to the AppSt 22Similar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+6
92.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 6 yds to the AppSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
92.9%
Zac Thomas run for 12 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
93.2%
Darrynton Evans run for 6 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+1
93.3%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 1 yd to the AppSt 47Similar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
92.9%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for no gain to the AppSt 47Similar
Q3 12:21
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
92.5%
Zac Thomas punt for 39 yds, downed at the LaLaf 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:188% → 6%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
92.5%
Elijah Mitchell run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 19Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 5
OWN 19
-6
92.5%
Levi Lewis sacked by Caleb Spurlin for a loss of 6 yards to the LaLaf 13Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 11
OWN 13
+22
92.8%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 22 yds to the LaLaf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
92.0%
Levi Lewis run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
91.7%
Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+1
91.6%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q3 4:17
3RD & 7
OWN 48
-4
93.2%
Levi Lewis sacked by Akeem Davis-Gaither and Okon Godwin for a loss of 4 yards to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q3 4:17
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
93.8%
Rhys Byrns punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Clifton Duck at the AppSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
94.6%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the AppSt 16Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+2
94.7%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the AppSt 18Similar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 4
OWN 18
-9
94.5%
Thomas, Zac pass complete to Virgil, Jalen for 11 yards to the APP29, PENALTY APP holding (Johnson, Victor) 9 yards to the APP9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 13
OWN 9
+2
94.3%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the AppSt 11Similar
Q3 3:34
4TH & 11
OWN 11
0
94.2%
Clayton Howell punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:207% → 6%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
93.2%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Matt BarnesSimilar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+4
93.3%
Trey Ragas run for 4 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+8
93.7%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for 8 yds to the AppSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
93.0%
Andre Nunez run for 4 yds to the AppSt 16Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+4
93.0%
Trey Ragas run for 4 yds to the AppSt 12Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 12
0
94.4%
Elijah Mitchell run for no gain to the AppSt 12Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 12
0
94.4%
Elijah Mitchell run for no gain to the AppSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+12
96.1%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Henry Pearson for 12 yds to the AppSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
96.1%
Darrynton Evans run for 3 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+26
96.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Henry Pearson for 26 yds to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-8
96.5%
Thomas, Zac pass complete to Sutton, Corey for 4 yards to the LA43 (Garror,Eric), PENALTY APP holding (Reed, Collin) 8 yards to the APP45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 18
OWN 45
+6
96.4%
Darrynton Evans run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 12
OPP 49
0
96.3%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 12
OPP 49
-5
96.2%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 46Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 17
OWN 46
0
96.2%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Corey Sutton, broken up by Michael Jacquet IIISimilar
Q4 14:10
4TH & 17
OWN 46
0
95.8%
Clayton Howell punt for 53 yds, downed at the LaLaf 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
95.9%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Matt Barnes for 4 yds to the LaLaf 5Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+5
95.9%
Trey Ragas run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 10Similar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 1
OWN 10
+2
95.8%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
95.7%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 13Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+5
95.7%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 5 yds to the LaLaf 18Similar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 4
OWN 18
0
95.7%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Ryheem Malone, broken up by Demetrius TaylorSimilar
Q4 11:07
4TH & 4
OWN 18
0
95.8%
Rhys Byrns punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Clifton Duck at the AppSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 24FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 5:4397% → 99%
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+24
97.0%
Darrynton Evans run for 24 yds to the LaLaf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
97.1%
Darrynton Evans run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+1
97.1%
Zac Thomas run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q4 8:29
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+6
97.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 6 yds to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q4 8:29
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+2
96.9%
Darrynton Evans run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
97.1%
D'Andre Hicks run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 14Similar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+2
97.1%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 2 yds to the LaLaf 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
97.1%
D'Andre Hicks run for no gain to the LaLaf 12Similar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+1
97.1%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 11Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 9
OPP 11
0
98.3%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas Hennigan APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 2:46
4TH & 9
OPP 11
+29
98.6%
Chandler Staton 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 25TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 1:372% → 5%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
98.4%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Trey Ragas for 2 yds to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+9
98.4%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for 9 yds to the LaLaf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-4
98.4%
Andre Nunez sacked by Noel Cook for a loss of 4 yards to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 14
OWN 38
+9
98.5%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Elijah Mitchell for 9 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+6
98.4%
Elijah Mitchell run for 6 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+20
98.3%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Calif Gossett for 20 yds to the AppSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
95.0%
Trey Ragas run for 27 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 26DOWNS
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:253% → 3%
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
96.6%
Andre Nunez run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+14
96.5%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 14 yds to the AppSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
96.0%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for 7 yds to the AppSt 35Similar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 3
OPP 35
0
95.5%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Jarrod JacksonSimilar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 3
OPP 35
0
96.2%
Andre Nunez run for no gain to the AppSt 35Similar
Q4 0:34
4TH & 3
OPP 35
0
96.6%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Calif GossettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
96.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the AppSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:01
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
+5.3
TD · Q1 0:41
Levi Lewis pass complete to Elijah Mitchell for 38 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)
-3.6
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+3.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com