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GASO

Georgia Southern 15 at Texas State 13

TXST
2018 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2018 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreGASO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGSAFETYFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:53 · Clayton Stewart punt for 38 yds , Wesley Kennedy III returns for 6 yds to the GeoSo 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 46Pregame prior−31.1Home team on offense−4.3Garbage-time factor−1.6Score differential−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:59: Wesley Fields run for 5 yds for a TD GA SOUTHERN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 8 (Tyler Bass KICK) — GASO win probability +3.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:59: Keenen Brown run for 3 yds for a TD (Clayton Stewart KICK) — TXST win probability +9.9 pts (now 22%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 2:20: Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 29 yds for a TD Timeout TEXAS STATE, clock 02:20 (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — TXST win probability +32.3 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:20: James Sherman on-side kick recovered by GA SOUTHERN at the TexSt 47 — GASO win probability +8.8 pts (now 68%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:10: Wesley Fields run for 5 yds to the TexSt 42 — GASO win probability +14.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 9GASO made the numbers' call on 4 of 12
  1. Q1 11:24TXST 4th & 1 at GASO 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    15.8%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    15.4%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:46TXST 4th & 1 at GASO 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    17.0%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    16.4%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:44GASO 4th & 3 at GASO 9, tied
    Close callPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:21TXST 4th & 3 at GASO 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    20.0%−0.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:53TXST 4th & 14 at TXST 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−1.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:14GASO 4th & 12 at GASO 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:41TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:38GASO 4th & 2 at TXST 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    80.1%−1.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    79.9%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:50TXST 4th & 15 at GASO 36, down 7
    Close callPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    19.7%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:17GASO 4th & 2 at GASO 28, up 7
    Close callPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.7%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:00GASO 4th & 1 at TXST 8, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.9%−1.8
    90% to make
    Punt
    77.1%−6.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:10GASO 4th & 18 at GASO 41, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−2.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:59TXST 4th & 2 at TXST 32, down 10
    Close callPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:13GASO 4th & 5 at GASO 48, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:59GASO 4th & 1 at TXST 27, up 12
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.7%−2.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    80.5%−7.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:38GASO 4th & 1 at TXST 45, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    81.2%−4.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.6%−2.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:31TXST 4th & 9 at TXST 32, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−2.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:25GASO 4th & 1 at GASO 37, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%−2.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:34TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 43, down 8
    Close callPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%−0.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:27GASO 4th & 1 at GASO 42, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%−1.6
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:00GASO 4th & 6 at TXST 43, up 2
    Numbers favored field goal by 5.5 ptsWent for it · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.1%−5.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    94.6%
    28% to make
    Punt
    89.6%−5.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2GASO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 11:59GASO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 0:59TXST Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 2:20TXST Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    34.2%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    34.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1DOWNS
16 plays · 59 yds · 5:5911% → 14%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
11.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 5 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+2
11.5%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q1 14:14
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+12
11.6%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Mason Hays for 12 yds to the GeoSo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
12.0%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Jeremiah HaydelSimilar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+14
12.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 14 yds to the GeoSo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
12.3%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+1
12.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 1 yd to the GeoSo 20Similar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+1
13.0%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q1 11:24
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+2
13.0%
Tyler Vitt run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
13.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 6 yds to the GeoSo 11Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+6
13.7%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 6 yds to the GeoSo 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
13.9%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 1Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
14.0%
Anthony D. Taylor run for no gain to the GeoSo 1Similar
Q1 9:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
14.1%
Tyler Vitt run for no gain to the GeoSo 1Similar
Q1 8:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
14.2%
Tyler Vitt run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3186% → 85%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
14.3%
Wesley Fields run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 5Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+1
14.4%
Shai Werts run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 6Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 6
OWN 6
+3
14.9%
Wesley Fields run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 9Similar
Q1 6:44
4TH & 3
OWN 9
+52
15.4%
Magill Bauerle punt for 52 yds , Hutch White returns for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 3:0715% → 17%
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
15.4%
Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd to the TexSt 39Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+11
15.7%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Mason Hays for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
50
-7
16.3%
Caleb Twyford run for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSt 43Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 17
OWN 43
-6
16.1%
Tyler Vitt sacked by Chris Harris Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 37Similar
Q1 3:54
3RD & 23
OWN 37
+20
16.3%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 20 yds to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q1 3:21
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
17.1%
Clayton Stewart punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSo 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4TD
13 plays · 77 yds · 6:1383% → 85%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+18
16.8%
Wesley Fields run for 18 yds to the GeoSo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
16.6%
Wesley Fields run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+7
16.4%
Shai Werts run for 7 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
16.7%
Monteo Garrett run for 1 yd to the TexSt 47Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+3
17.0%
Shai Werts run for 3 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q1 0:12
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+6
17.5%
Wesley Fields run for 6 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
17.5%
Wesley Fields run for 9 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+7
17.5%
Shai Werts pass complete to Darion Anderson for 7 yds to the TexSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
17.7%
Wesley Fields run for 3 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 7
OPP 19
0
18.0%
Shai Werts pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:51
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+9
18.5%
Shai Werts pass complete to Mark Michaud for 9 yds to the TexSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
18.4%
Wesley Fields run for 5 yds to the TexSt 5Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
15.0%
Wesley Fields run for 5 yds for a TD GA SOUTHERN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 8 (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 1:5216% → 16%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
16.4%
Robert Brown Jr. run for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSt 18Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 17
OWN 18
-5
16.4%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 13Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 22
OWN 13
0
16.5%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 22
OWN 13
-2
16.2%
Tyler Vitt sacked by Logan Hunt for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 11Similar
Q2 10:07
4TH & 24
OWN 11
+10
16.2%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the TexSt 21Similar
Q2 9:53
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+6
16.0%
Clayton Stewart punt for 38 yds , Wesley Kennedy III returns for 6 yds to the GeoSo 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:3184% → 83%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
15.7%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Davarius BargnareSimilar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
15.8%
Wesley Fields run for 4 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q2 9:17
3RD & 6
OPP 49
-6
15.9%
Shai Werts sacked by Clifton Lewis Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q2 8:14
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
16.8%
Magill Bauerle punt for 49 yds, downed at the TexSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:1917% → 16%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
16.6%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+2
16.6%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 2 yds to the TexSt 8Similar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 8
OWN 8
0
16.2%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:41
4TH & 8
OWN 8
0
15.9%
Clayton Stewart punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8DOWNS
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4385% → 84%
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
15.4%
Shai Werts run for 1 yd to the TexSt 44Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+3
15.5%
Shai Werts pass complete to Obe Fortune for 3 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+4
15.3%
Shai Werts run for 4 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q2 5:38
4TH & 2
OPP 37
-4
15.9%
Wesley Fields run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 1:3818% → 17%
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
18.1%
Vitt, Tyler pass incomplete, PENALTY GASOUTHERN roughing passer 15 yards to the GASOUTHERN44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXSTATE.Similar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
18.9%
Tyler Vitt run for no gain to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+13
18.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 13 yds to the GeoSo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
20.0%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
20.0%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 10
OPP 31
-5
18.8%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 15
OPP 36
0
17.9%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:50
4TH & 15
OPP 36
0
16.9%
Clayton Stewart punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1683% → 83%
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
17.2%
Wesley Fields run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
16.6%
Wesley Fields run for no gain to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+5
17.1%
Shai Werts pass complete to Monteo Garrett for 5 yds to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q2 2:17
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
16.9%
Magill Bauerle punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11INT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4818% → 17%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
18.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Tyler Watts for 5 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+8
18.6%
Tyler Vitt run for 8 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-9
19.2%
Tyler Vitt sacked by Raymond Johnson III for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSt 32Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 19
OWN 32
+34
17.2%
Tyler Vitt pass intercepted Joshua Moon return for 34 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12END OF HALF
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:1186% → 86%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
14.3%
Wesley Fields run for 7 yds to the TexSt 10Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+2
14.3%
Shai Werts run for 2 yds to the TexSt 8Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 1
OPP 8
0
14.8%
Wesley Fields run for no gain to the TexSt 8Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+24
14.3%
Tyler Bass 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14FUMBLE
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:4584% → 83%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
16.1%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 12 yds to the GeoSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
15.7%
Wesley Fields run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+3
15.4%
Shai Werts run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+7
15.4%
Shai Werts run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
15.1%
Monteo Garrett run for no gain to the GeoSo 49Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
15.2%
Shai Werts pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 10
OWN 49
-8
15.7%
Shai Werts sacked by Caeveon Patton for a loss of 8 yards to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q3 11:10
4TH & 18
OWN 41
+2
17.0%
Magill Bauerle punt for 36 yds , Hutch White returns for 2 yds to the TexSt 21 Hutch White fumbled, recovered by GeoSo Dexter Carter Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 15FUMBLE
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:2285% → 85%
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
15.0%
Wesley Fields run for 3 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 7
OPP 18
-6
15.1%
Wesley Fields run for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 24 Wesley Fields fumbled, recovered by TexSt Bryan London IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2416% → 16%
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
15.9%
Willie Jones III run for 6 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+3
16.4%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 3 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 1
OWN 33
-1
16.0%
Willie Jones III run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 32Similar
Q3 8:59
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
15.6%
Clayton Stewart punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSo 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3184% → 84%
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
15.8%
Monteo Garrett run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+4
15.9%
Monteo Garrett run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
15.7%
Shai Werts pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:13
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
16.4%
Magill Bauerle punt for 47 yds, downed at the TexSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18SF
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-5
14.3%
Willie Jones III sacked by Lane Ecton and Raymond Johnson III for a loss of 5 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 19FG
10 plays · 37 yds · 4:4687% → 92%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
12.8%
Shai Werts run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+1
13.3%
Shai Werts run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q3 5:27
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+14
13.3%
Shai Werts pass complete to Colby Ransom for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
50
+6
11.7%
Matt LaRoche run for 6 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+8
11.4%
Matt LaRoche run for 8 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
11.5%
Matt LaRoche run for 3 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+4
10.4%
Matt LaRoche run for 4 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q3 2:22
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+2
10.6%
Matt LaRoche run for 2 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q3 1:59
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+43
7.9%
Tyler Bass 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 0:4610% → 22%
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+61
10.0%
Keenen Brown run for 61 yds to the GeoSo 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
12.0%
Willie Jones III run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 3Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
21.9%
Keenen Brown run for 3 yds for a TD (Clayton Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 3:1184% → 86%
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
16.1%
Monteo Garrett run for 10 yds to the GeoSo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
15.8%
Wesley Fields run for 11 yds to the GeoSo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
14.7%
Shai Werts run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 6
50
0
13.8%
Wesley Fields run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:16
3RD & 6
50
+5
13.1%
Shai Werts pass complete to Ellis Richardson for 5 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q4 12:38
4TH & 1
OPP 45
0
14.2%
Magill Bauerle punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 2:4416% → 16%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
15.9%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 3 yds to the TexSt 12Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 7
OWN 12
0
16.1%
Willie Jones III pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 7
OWN 12
+8
15.2%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to T.J. Bedford for 8 yds to the TexSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
16.4%
Willie Jones III run for 7 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+4
17.1%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 4 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
16.8%
Willie Jones III run for 1 yd to the TexSt 32Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
15.6%
Willie Jones III pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
16.7%
Willie Jones III pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:31
4TH & 9
OWN 32
0
15.7%
Clayton Stewart punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Wesley Kennedy III at the GeoSo 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5786% → 87%
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
14.0%
Wesley Fields run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 8
OWN 30
-1
13.8%
Monteo Garrett run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+8
12.7%
Shai Werts pass complete to Marcus Rogers for 8 yds to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q4 7:25
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
12.6%
Magill Bauerle punt for 22 yds, downed at the TexSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4717% → 14%
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
17.0%
Willie Jones III pass incomplete to Keenen BrownSimilar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
15.9%
Willie Jones III run for 2 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
14.3%
Willie Jones III pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:34
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
13.5%
Clayton Stewart punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Wesley Kennedy III at the GeoSo 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:5790% → 91%
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
9.7%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the GeoSo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
9.5%
Wesley Fields run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+1
8.5%
Wesley Fields run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q4 4:57
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+2
8.7%
Wesley Fields run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q4 4:27
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
9.2%
Magill Bauerle punt for 33 yds, downed at the TexSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 26TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:5912% → 41%
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
12.2%
Willie Jones III run for 16 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
14.5%
Tyler Vitt run for 10 yds to the GeoSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
15.8%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Tyler Watts for 3 yds to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+4
15.1%
Willie Jones III run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 3
OPP 42
-1
15.0%
Willie Jones III run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q4 2:22
4TH & 4
OPP 43
+14
8.9%
Vitt, Tyler pass incomplete to Brown, Keenen, PENALTY GASOUTHERN pass interference 14 yards to the GASOUTHERN29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXSTATE.Similar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
41.2%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 29 yds for a TD Timeout TEXAS STATE, clock 02:20 (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 27DOWNS
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:1083% → 94%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
17.5%
Wesley Fields run for 5 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+1
12.5%
Wesley Fields run for 1 yd to the TexSt 41Similar
Q4 0:28
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+3
6.6%
Matt LaRoche run for 3 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q4 0:04
4TH & 1
OPP 38
-5
6.3%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 43Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
6.5%
Shai Werts pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:20
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 29 yds for a TD Timeout TEXAS STATE, clock 02:20 (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+32.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:10
Wesley Fields run for 5 yds to the TexSt 42
-14.9
TD · Q3 0:59
Keenen Brown run for 3 yds for a TD (Clayton Stewart KICK)
+9.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com