Try the model
UL

Louisiana 42 at Texas State 27

TXST
2018 · Week 6 · Oct 6, 2018 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+6.3TXST 9.5%Tyler Vitt pass complete to KeenenBrown for 15 yds for a TD (ClaytonStewart KICK)AWAY 42 - HOME 27 · Q4 9:17
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:17 · Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 15 yds for a TD (Clayton Stewart KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 149Home team on offense−24.9Score differential−16.0Pregame prior−1.9Garbage-time factor−11.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:57: Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 3 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK) — UL win probability +9.8 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:14: Hutch White pass complete to Tyler Vitt for 5 yds for a TD (Clayton Stewart KICK) — TXST win probability +8.7 pts (now 20%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:24: Elijah Mitchell run for 6 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK) — UL win probability +10.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:55: Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 27 yds for a TD (Clayton Stewart KICK) — TXST win probability +11.6 pts (now 17%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:17: Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 15 yds for a TD (Clayton Stewart KICK) — TXST win probability +6.3 pts (now 10%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 7 of 8UL made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 15:00UL 4th & 3 at TXST 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:08TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:23TXST 4th & 7 at TXST 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:54TXST 4th & 12 at TXST 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:55TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:57TXST 4th & 6 at UL 40, down 21
    Close callPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    23.4%−0.6
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:20TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 44, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 30, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:07UL 4th & 6 at UL 28, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:06UL 4th & 9 at UL 31, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%−1.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:17UL 4th & 5 at UL 30, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:01TXST 4th & 4 at UL 4, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    4.5%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−2.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UL made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 4:54UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:55UL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:57UL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:45UL Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:10TXST Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    10.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:14TXST Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:24UL Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:55TXST Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:38UL Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 9:17TXST Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
37.6%
Trey Ragas run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
37.6%
Andre Nunez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+7
37.6%
Andre Nunez run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+15
37.6%
Byrns,Rhys punt 46 yards to the TXST24, downed, PENALTY TXST roughing the kicker (Taylor,AnthonyD) 15 yards to the LA45, 1ST DOWN LA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
37.6%
Trey Ragas run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+5
37.6%
Trey Ragas run for 5 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 46
-2
37.6%
Trey Ragas run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
37.6%
Rhys Byrns punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
38.7%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the TexSt 13Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+3
38.6%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
Q1 12:08
3RD & 4
OWN 16
0
38.5%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:08
4TH & 4
OWN 16
0
38.4%
Clayton Stewart punt for 45 yds , Ryheem Malone returns for no gain to the LaLaf 38 Ryheem Malone fumbled, recovered by LaLaf Ryheem MaloneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3INT
3 plays · 45 yds · 0:0061% → 62%
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+44
38.9%
Elijah Mitchell run for 44 yds to the TexSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
38.5%
Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd to the TexSt 17Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
38.5%
Andre Nunez pass intercepted JaShon Waddy return for no gain to the TexSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
39.8%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Hutch WhiteSimilar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+3
39.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 3 yds to the TexSt 6Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 7
OWN 6
0
39.5%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:23
4TH & 7
OWN 6
0
39.4%
Clayton Stewart punt for 54 yds, downed at the LaLaf 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 3:2360% → 64%
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
39.7%
Raymond Calais run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
39.5%
Andre Nunez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+34
39.6%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 34 yds to the TexSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
39.2%
Trey Ragas run for 3 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+10
39.2%
Trey Ragas run for 10 yds to the TexSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
39.2%
Elijah Mitchell run for 3 yds to the TexSt 5Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
39.2%
Elijah Mitchell run for 4 yds to the TexSt 1Similar
Q1 4:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.5%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
37.7%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
37.6%
Caleb Twyford run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 23Similar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+18
37.2%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 18 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
38.3%
Caleb Twyford run for 4 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 6
OWN 45
-9
38.6%
Tyler Vitt sacked by Chauncey Manac for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSt 36Similar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 15
OWN 36
+3
37.3%
Tyler Vitt run for 3 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q1 4:54
4TH & 12
OWN 39
+5
37.4%
Clayton Stewart punt for 42 yds , Ryheem Malone returns for 5 yds to the LaLaf 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7TD
5 plays · 76 yds · 1:4663% → 70%
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
37.1%
Trey Ragas run for 12 yds to the LaLaf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
36.6%
Trey Ragas run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+45
36.2%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Raymond Calais for 45 yds to the TexSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
35.8%
Raymond Calais run for 3 yds to the TexSt 13Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+13
30.5%
Elijah Mitchell run for 13 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.1%
Hutch White pass incomplete to Tyler Vitt, broken up by Eric GarrorSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
32.0%
Tyler Vitt run for 2 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
31.8%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+8
31.8%
Clayton Stewart punt for 42 yds , Ryheem Malone returns for 8 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9TD
12 plays · 61 yds · 5:5570% → 80%
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
29.9%
Trey Ragas run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+6
29.9%
Trey Ragas run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q2 13:52
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+12
30.1%
Trey Ragas run for 12 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
29.8%
Mitchell,Elijah rush over right tackle for 3 yards to the TXST37 (LondonII,Bryan;Griffin,Frankie), PENALTY LA illegal motion 5 yards to the TXST45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:52
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+6
29.9%
Elijah Mitchell run for 6 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+1
29.8%
Raymond Calais run for 1 yd to the TexSt 38Similar
Q2 13:52
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+11
30.0%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 11 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
29.8%
Raymond Calais run for 3 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+19
29.8%
Trey Ragas run for 19 yds to the TexSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
29.8%
Trey Ragas run for 3 yds to the TexSt 2Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
29.8%
Elijah Mitchell run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 3Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
20.0%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 3 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 0:0020% → 21%
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
20.4%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
20.3%
Tyler Vitt run for 7 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
20.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 6 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
21.2%
Caleb Twyford run for 5 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+13
21.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 13 yds to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
21.9%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Hutch WhiteSimilar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
21.7%
Tyler Vitt run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
21.7%
Tyler Vitt run for no gain to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q2 7:57
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
21.4%
Clayton Stewart punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaLaf 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11TD
12 plays · 81 yds · 3:4382% → 91%
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
17.9%
Elijah Mitchell run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 1
OWN 28
0
17.8%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Ryheem MaloneSimilar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+5
18.2%
Elijah Mitchell run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+29
17.9%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for 29 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
17.1%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 6 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+9
16.8%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Raymond Calais for 9 yds to the TexSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
16.8%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 8
OPP 21
0
13.7%
Andre Nunez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+10
14.4%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Elijah Mitchell for 10 yds to the TexSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
13.6%
Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds to the TexSt 9Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
9.0%
Elijah Mitchell run for 9 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12END OF HALF
10 plays · 50 yds · 0:2511% → 7%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.0%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
10.6%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Tyler Watts for 6 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
10.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Tyler Watts for 4 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
11.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 5 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
5.3%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+4
5.2%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Anthony D. Taylor for 4 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+13
5.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Tyler Watts for 13 yds to the LaLaf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
6.5%
Tyler Vitt run for 18 yds to the LaLaf 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
7.8%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 4 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
7.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Anthony D. Taylor for 4 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-3
7.3%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+8
7.1%
Clayton Stewart punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaLaf 24 , Ryheem Malone returns for 8 yds to the LaLaf 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
6.7%
Elijah Mitchell run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 22Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 12
OWN 22
+1
6.8%
Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+5
7.2%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 5 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q3 13:07
4TH & 6
OWN 28
+27
7.5%
Rhys Byrns punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaLaf 36 , Hutch White returns for 27 yds to the LaLaf 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15TD
1 play · 36 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
13.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 36 yds for a TD (Clayton Stewart PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
9.1%
Raymond Calais run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 21Similar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+4
9.1%
Trey Ragas run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q3 11:06
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+5
9.4%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Trey Ragas for 5 yds to the LaLaf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
9.1%
Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
9.2%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Ryheem MaloneSimilar
Q3 11:06
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
9.2%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Ryheem MaloneSimilar
Q3 11:06
4TH & 9
OWN 31
+1
9.5%
Rhys Byrns punt for 37 yds , Hutch White returns for 1 yd to the TexSt 32 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (Auston Deason) to the TexSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 2:359% → 20%
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
9.0%
Tyler Vitt run for 1 yd to the TexSt 24Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+27
8.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 27 yds to the LaLaf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
10.1%
Caleb Twyford run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+18
10.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to T.J. Bedford for 18 yds to the LaLaf 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+17
11.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Tyler Watts for 17 yds to the LaLaf 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
19.8%
Hutch White pass complete to Tyler Vitt for 5 yds for a TD (Clayton Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18TD
9 plays · 88 yds · 3:4485% → 97%
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
14.6%
Levi Lewis run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 14Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 8
OWN 14
0
14.7%
Trey Ragas run for no gain to the LaLaf 14Similar
Q3 6:08
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+12
15.0%
Levi Lewis run for 12 yds to the LaLaf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
14.4%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+6
14.5%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 6 yds to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q3 6:08
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+24
14.6%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Elijah Mitchell for 24 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+37
13.3%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 37 yds to the TexSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
3.0%
Elijah Mitchell run for 6 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:294% → 17%
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
4.4%
Caleb Twyford run for 2 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
4.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 7 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q3 2:24
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+10
4.5%
Tyler Vitt run for 10 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
4.6%
Vitt,Tyler sideline pass incomplete, PENALTY LA face mask (Manac,Chauncey) 15 yards to the LA41, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
4.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 9 yds to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 1
OPP 32
0
5.3%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Keenen BrownSimilar
Q3 2:24
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+5
5.2%
Tyler Vitt run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
16.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 27 yds for a TD (Clayton Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1791% → 98%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
9.1%
Trey Ragas run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
8.8%
Ragas,Trey rush over left end for 21 yards to the TXST43 (Daniels,Nikolas), PENALTY LA holding (Middleton,J.) 10 yards to the LA26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+64
9.1%
Elijah Mitchell run for 64 yds to the TexSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
8.0%
Elijah Mitchell run for 4 yds to the TexSt 6Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
8.0%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Calif GossettSimilar
Q4 12:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
2.1%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 6 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:213% → 10%
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
2.6%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 5 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+30
2.7%
Tyler Vitt run for 30 yds to the LaLaf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
3.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Elijah Rogers for 5 yds to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+5
3.3%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 5 yds to the LaLaf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
3.2%
Tyler Vitt run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+1
3.3%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 1 yd to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q4 12:38
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+9
3.2%
Tyler Vitt run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
9.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 15 yds for a TD (Clayton Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
6.0%
Trey Ragas run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
6.1%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q4 9:17
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
6.4%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Matt BarnesSimilar
Q4 9:17
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
6.3%
Rhys Byrns punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23DOWNS
15 plays · 57 yds · 4:547% → 4%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
6.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 12 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
7.4%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (T.J. Bedford) to the TexSt 44Similar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+14
7.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Robert Brown Jr. for 14 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+5
8.1%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-8
7.8%
Tyler Vitt sacked by Bennie Higgins for a loss of 8 yards to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 18
OPP 45
+2
7.2%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Tyler Watts for 2 yds to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 16
OPP 43
+21
6.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 21 yds to the LaLaf 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
8.6%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Tyler WattsSimilar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+2
8.2%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 2 yds to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+10
8.1%
Tyler Vitt run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
8.6%
Caleb Twyford run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 7Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-4
4.4%
Jeremiah Haydel run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaLaf 11Similar
Q4 3:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+7
4.0%
Tyler Vitt run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 4Similar
Q4 3:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
4.4%
Tyler Vitt run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+12
1.9%
Elijah Mitchell run for 12 yds to the LaLaf 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
1.8%
Elijah Mitchell run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 22Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+6
1.8%
Elijah Mitchell run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:55
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 27 yds for a TD (Clayton Stewart KICK)
+11.6
TD · Q3 2:24
Elijah Mitchell run for 6 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)
-10.2
TD · Q2 7:57
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 3 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)
-9.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com