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CCU

Coastal Carolina 21 at Troy 45

TROY
2018 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2018 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadCCU aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreCCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+3.1TROY 84.0%Tyler Sumpter 46 yd FG GOODAWAY 14 - HOME 24 · Q2 0:06
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:06 · Tyler Sumpter 46 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 88Pregame prior+17.3Home team on offense+10.5Score differential+1.2Garbage-time factor+3.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:06: Torrance Marable run for 1 yd for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — CCU win probability +5.4 pts (now 17%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:23: Marcus Outlow run for 1 yd for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — CCU win probability +4.3 pts (now 20%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:47: Kaleb Barker pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 2 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +8.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:59: Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Shadell Bell for 10 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — CCU win probability +7.7 pts (now 19%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:54: B.J. Smith run for 17 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +8.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 5CCU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 14:46CCU 4th & 15 at TROY 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    17.3%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:30CCU 4th & 5 at CCU 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:37TROY 4th & 5 at CCU 20, up 21
    Close callWent for it · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    87.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    85.7%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:06TROY 4th & 3 at TROY 42, up 14
    Close callPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:23CCU 4th & 1 at TROY 1, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    12.5%−1.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−5.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:58CCU 4th & 2 at TROY 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    20.3%−0.6
    72% to make
    Punt
    16.2%−4.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:06TROY 4th & 13 at CCU 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%−1.5
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    78.2%−2.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:47TROY 4th & 2 at CCU 2, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    83.7%−1.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    77.8%−7.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:47CCU 4th & 7 at TROY 29, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.6%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    8.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−3.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:54CCU 4th & 22 at CCU 13, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−2.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:05TROY 4th & 11 at CCU 26, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.4%
    64% to make
    Punt
    93.1%−2.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00CCU 4th & 18 at CCU 35, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−1.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:36CCU 4th & 16 at CCU 19, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:54CCU 4th & 20 at CCU 35, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 5CCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:30TROY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:49TROY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:06CCU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:23CCU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:47TROY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:59CCU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:54TROY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:36TROY Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CCUDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
82.2%
Bryce Carpenter run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 28 Bryce Carpenter fumbled,Similar
Q1 14:46
2ND & 14
OWN 28
+13
82.2%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 13 yds to the CCaro 41Similar
Q1 14:46
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+10
82.2%
Marcus Outlow run for 10 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
82.2%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 6 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q1 14:46
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+6
82.2%
Malcolm Williams run for 6 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
82.2%
Malcolm Williams run for 2 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q1 14:46
2ND & 8
OPP 35
-1
82.2%
Torrance Marable run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 36Similar
Q1 14:46
3RD & 9
OPP 36
-6
82.2%
Bryce Carpenter sacked by Travis Sailo for a loss of 6 yards to the Troy 42Similar
Q1 14:46
4TH & 15
OPP 42
0
82.2%
Charles Ouverson punt for 24 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3TD
8 plays · 82 yds · 1:5582% → 84%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
82.0%
Kaleb Barker run for 2 yds to the Troy 20Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+14
82.0%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 14 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
82.1%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 29Similar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 15
OWN 29
0
82.0%
Kaleb Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+3
82.0%
Kaleb Barker run for 3 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 12
OWN 32
+18
81.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Damion Willis for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
50
+15
82.3%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the CCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
84.0%
Luke Whittemore pass complete to Jabir Daughtry-Frye for 35 yds for a TD COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
83.2%
Bryce Carpenter run for 14 yds to the CCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
83.1%
Marcus Outlow run for 5 yds to the CCaro 40Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
83.0%
Bryce Carpenter run for no gain to the CCaro 40Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
83.1%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Marcus Outlow for no gain to the CCaro 40Similar
Q1 8:30
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+3
83.2%
Charles Ouverson punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 20 , Cedarius Rookard returns for 3 yds to the Troy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:0384% → 88%
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
84.3%
Kaleb Barker run for 11 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+24
84.4%
B.J. Smith run for 24 yds to the CCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
84.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Tray Eafford for 6 yds to the CCaro 39Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 4
OPP 39
-4
84.7%
B.J. Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the CCaro 43Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 8
OPP 43
-5
84.6%
TROY Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the CCaro 48Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 13
OPP 48
+47
84.4%
B.J. Smith run for 47 yds to the CCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.8%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 6FUMBLE
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-6
87.6%
Bryce Carpenter sacked by Carlton Martial for a loss of 6 yards to the CCaro 25 Bryce Carpenter fumbled, recovered by Troy Hunter Reese , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7DOWNS
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
87.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Jabir Daughtry-Frye for 1 yd to the CCaro 24Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+4
87.8%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the CCaro 20Similar
Q1 3:37
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
87.7%
Kaleb Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:37
4TH & 5
OPP 20
-9
87.4%
Kaleb Barker sacked by Sterling Johnson for a loss of 9 yards to the CCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 8TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 3:4712% → 17%
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
87.9%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 12 yds to the CCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
87.8%
Torrance Marable run for 5 yds to the CCaro 46Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+19
87.7%
Bryce Carpenter run for 19 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
87.4%
Torrance Marable run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 38Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 13
OPP 38
+5
87.9%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Ky'Jon Tyler for 5 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q1 2:53
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+12
87.7%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Ky'Jon Tyler for 12 yds to the Troy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
88.6%
Bryce Carpenter pass incomplete to Malcolm Williams, broken up by Blace BrownSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+11
88.7%
Torrance Marable run for 11 yds to the Troy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
88.6%
Torrance Marable run for 9 yds to the Troy 1Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.2%
Torrance Marable run for 1 yd for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
85.5%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 3 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-2
85.8%
Sawyer Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 36Similar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+6
85.2%
Sawyer Smith run for 6 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q2 14:06
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
85.2%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Marcus Outlow at the CCaro 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 10TD
13 plays · 72 yds · 6:4315% → 20%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
84.6%
Marcus Outlow run for 2 yds to the CCaro 30Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+9
84.6%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 9 yds to the CCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
84.4%
Bryce Carpenter run for 3 yds to the CCaro 42Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+8
84.3%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
50
+9
84.1%
Marcus Outlow run for 9 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+14
83.8%
Marcus Outlow run for 14 yds to the Troy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
83.4%
Marcus Outlow run for 2 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+9
83.4%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 9 yds to the Troy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
83.4%
Torrance Marable run for 6 yds to the Troy 10 for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, personal foul (5 Yards) to the Troy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
83.4%
Marcus Outlow run for no gain to the Troy 5Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
83.4%
Marcus Outlow run for 4 yds to the Troy 1Similar
Q2 12:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
83.8%
Marcus Outlow run for no gain to the Troy 1Similar
Q2 5:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.6%
Marcus Outlow run for 1 yd for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11FUMBLE
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
82.4%
Smith, B.J. rush left for 6 yards to the TROY48 (Claybourne, M.), PENALTY TROY holding (Hill, Gabe) 10 yards to the TROY32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 20
OWN 32
+6
81.4%
B.J. Smith run for 6 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 14
OWN 38
+7
81.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Sidney Davis for 7 yds Sidney Davis fumbled, forced by Preston Carey, recovered by CCaro Silas Kelly , return for 5 yds to the Troy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 12DOWNS
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:3921% → 20%
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
78.9%
Torrance Marable run for 10 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
78.1%
Torrance Marable run for 3 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+4
77.8%
Torrance Marable run for 4 yds to the Troy 23Similar
Q2 4:37
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+1
78.7%
Marcus Outlow run for 1 yd to the Troy 22Similar
Q2 1:58
4TH & 2
OPP 22
-10
79.8%
Malcolm Williams sacked by Hunter Reese and Tron Folsom for a loss of 10 yards to the Troy 29 Malcolm Williams fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13FG
12 plays · 42 yds · 1:4682% → 84%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
81.9%
Kaleb Barker run for 8 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+7
82.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Damion Willis for 7 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
82.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Sidney Davis for 8 yds to the CCaro 48Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+22
83.2%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 22 yds to the CCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
83.6%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 2 yds to the CCaro 24Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 8
OPP 24
-7
82.9%
Sidney Davis run for a loss of 7 yards to the CCaro 31Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 15
OPP 31
+2
80.8%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the CCaro 29Similar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 13
OPP 29
+46
84.0%
Tyler Sumpter 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
84.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the CCaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 15INT
6 plays · 29 yds · 0:0017% → 19%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
82.8%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 18 yds to the CCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
81.9%
Marcus Outlow run for 6 yds to the CCaro 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+1
81.3%
Marcus Outlow run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
50
+4
81.5%
Marcus Outlow run for 4 yds to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
81.2%
Bryce Carpenter pass intercepted Tyler Murray return for 46 yds to the CCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16TD
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:3186% → 93%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+22
85.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Damion Willis for 22 yds to the CCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
85.8%
B.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the CCaro 3Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
85.8%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Damion WillisSimilar
Q3 12:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
85.1%
Kaleb Barker run for 1 yd to the CCaro 2Similar
Q3 10:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 2 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 17TD
12 plays · 67 yds · 5:4810% → 19%
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
90.2%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jeremiah Miller for 5 yds to the CCaro 38Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+2
90.2%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Torrance Marable for 2 yds to the CCaro 40Similar
Q3 10:47
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+8
90.3%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 8 yds to the CCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+20
89.9%
Bryce Carpenter run for 20 yds to the Troy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
88.7%
Marcus Outlow run for no gain to the Troy 32Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-8
88.9%
Carpenter, B. rush up middle for 6 yards to the TROY26 (Tyus, Melvin), PENALTY CCU holding (Carter, T.) 8 yards to the TROY40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 18
OPP 40
+4
90.1%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 4 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q3 10:47
3RD & 14
OPP 36
+7
90.8%
Bryce Carpenter run for 7 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q3 10:47
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+19
89.7%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jeremiah Miller for 19 yds to the Troy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
88.5%
Bryce Carpenter pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
80.8%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Shadell Bell for 10 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:0585% → 95%
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+41
85.3%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 41 yds to the CCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
86.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Damion Willis for 12 yds to the CCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
95.0%
B.J. Smith run for 17 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
93.7%
Bryce Carpenter sacked by Justin Whisenhunt for a loss of 6 yards to the CCaro 19Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 16
OWN 19
-13
93.9%
Bryce Carpenter sacked by Carlton Martial for a loss of 13 yards to the CCaro 6Similar
Q3 3:54
3RD & 29
OWN 6
+7
94.1%
Alex James run for 7 yds to the CCaro 13Similar
Q3 3:54
4TH & 22
OWN 13
+23
94.0%
Charles Ouverson punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CCaro 25 , Cedarius Rookard returns for 23 yds to the CCaro 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20MISSED FG
4 plays · -1 yds · 2:1795% → 95%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-7
95.4%
Kaleb Barker sacked by Jeffrey Gunter for a loss of 7 yards to the CCaro 32Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 17
OPP 32
+1
95.3%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the CCaro 31Similar
Q3 2:22
3RD & 16
OPP 31
+5
95.2%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 5 yds to the CCaro 26Similar
Q3 0:05
4TH & 11
OPP 26
+43
95.3%
Tyler Sumpter 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:055% → 5%
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
94.6%
Alex James run for 1 yd to the CCaro 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+15
94.8%
Bryce Carpenter run for 15 yds to the CCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-7
94.3%
Bryce Carpenter sacked by A.J. Smiley for a loss of 7 yards to the CCaro 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 36
0
94.9%
Bryce Carpenter pass incomplete to Ky'Jon TylerSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 36
-1
95.0%
Bryce Carpenter sacked by Trevon Sanders for a loss of 1 yard to the CCaro 35Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 18
OWN 35
0
95.1%
Charles Ouverson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Cedarius Rookard at the Troy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22TD
1 play · 74 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+74
99.2%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 74 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.6%
Torrance Marable run for 1 yd to the CCaro 26Similar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
98.6%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the CCaro 21Similar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-5
98.7%
Bryce Carpenter run for a loss of 5 yards to the CCaro 16Similar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+3
98.7%
Marcus Outlow run for 3 yds to the CCaro 19Similar
Q4 12:36
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+69
98.7%
Charles Ouverson punt for 64 yds, fair catch by Cedarius Rookard at the TROY 17 TROY Penalty, illegal fair catch signal (Cedarius Rookard) to the Troy 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24INT
7 plays · 78 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+13
99.3%
Sawyer Smith run for 13 yds to the Troy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.3%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Daniel Crowell for 7 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+39
99.3%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 39 yds to the CCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.4%
Sawyer Smith run for no gain to the CCaro 29Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
99.4%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Daniel CrowellSimilar
Q4 10:20
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+15
99.3%
Smith, Sawyer deep pass incomplete to Brown, D. (Wattley, F.), PENALTY CCU pass interference (Wattley, F.) 15 yards to the CCU10, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
99.4%
Sawyer Smith pass intercepted Chandler Kryst return for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
99.2%
Marcus Outlow run for 1 yd to the CCaro 5Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+26
99.2%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Shadell Bell for 26 yds to the CCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
99.1%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Marcus Outlow for 6 yds to the CCaro 37Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+3
99.1%
Marcus Outlow run for 3 yds to the CCaro 40Similar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+5
99.1%
Marcus Outlow run for 5 yds to the CCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-8
99.1%
Bryce Carpenter sacked by Jarvis Hayes for a loss of 8 yards to the CCaro 37Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 18
OWN 37
+4
99.2%
Bryce Carpenter run for 4 yds to the CCaro 41Similar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 14
OWN 41
-6
99.2%
Bryce Carpenter sacked by Jarvis Hayes for a loss of 6 yards to the CCaro 35Similar
Q4 6:54
4TH & 20
OWN 35
0
99.2%
Charles Ouverson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Troy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
99.7%
Josh Mays run for 8 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+5
99.8%
Josh Mays run for 5 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.8%
Sawyer Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:47
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 2 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)
+8.4
TD · Q3 3:54
B.J. Smith run for 17 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)
+8.1
TD · Q3 4:59
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Shadell Bell for 10 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
-7.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com