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USA

South Alabama 7 at App State 52

APP
2018 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2018 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
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Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:39 · Corliss Waitman punt for 9 yds, downed at the SAlab 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 80Pregame prior+30.7Home team on offense+21.6Score differential+18.7Blowout margin+9.3Garbage-time factor+4.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:12: Kawaan Baker run for 2 yds for a TD (Gavin Patterson KICK) — USA win probability +1.5 pts (now 9%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 5:37: Jalin Moore run for 7 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +0.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 3:10: Zac Thomas run for 7 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +1.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 12:22: Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 2 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined — APP win probability +2.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 4:45: Jalin Moore run for 2 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +1.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USA made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 13:11USA 4th & 3 at USA 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:28APP 4th & 9 at APP 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:37USA 4th & 7 at USA 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:10USA 4th & 9 at USA 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:22USA 4th & 9 at USA 26, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:39USA 4th & 4 at USA 28, down 28
    Close callPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00USA 4th & 2 at USA 33, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:36USA 4th & 1 at APP 37, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:36USA 4th & 17 at APP 39, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:56APP 4th & 9 at APP 12, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:35USA 4th & 8 at APP 44, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:46APP 4th & 5 at USA 5, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    92% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00USA 4th & 5 at APP 5, down 38
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    92% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:52USA 4th & 12 at USA 23, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 7 of 7USA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:11APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:12USA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:37APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 3:10APP Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:22APP Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:45APP Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 2:41APP Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:04APP Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
APPDrive 1TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 1:4994% → 94%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
94.0%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Darrynton EvansSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
94.0%
Jalin Moore run for 4 yds to the AppSt 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+7
94.0%
Zac Thomas run for 7 yds to the AppSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
94.0%
Jalin Moore run for 4 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
94.0%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Corey Sutton, broken up by Darian MillsSimilar
Q1 13:11
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+54
93.8%
Zac Thomas run for 54 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
93.7%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 16 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
93.7%
Tra Minter run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 39Similar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+5
93.7%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jordan McCray for 5 yds to the SAlab 44Similar
Q1 13:11
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+4
93.7%
Tra Minter run for 4 yds to the SAlab 48Similar
Q1 13:11
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
93.7%
Corliss Waitman punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
93.5%
Zac Thomas run for 4 yds to the AppSt 24Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+8
93.5%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 8 yds to the AppSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
93.5%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the AppSt 33Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
93.5%
Jalin Moore run for no gain to the AppSt 33Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
93.5%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
93.5%
Clayton Howell punt for 37 yds, downed at the SAlab 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:457% → 9%
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
93.1%
Tra Minter run for 4 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+7
93.0%
Kawaan Baker run for 7 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
93.0%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jahmmir Taylor for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 39Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+13
93.1%
Evan Orth pass complete to Collier Smith for 13 yds to the AppSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+41
92.9%
Evan Orth pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 41 yds to the AppSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
92.8%
Tra Minter run for 5 yds to the AppSt 2Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
92.8%
Deonta Moore run for no gain to the AppSt 2Similar
Q1 6:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.4%
Kawaan Baker run for 2 yds for a TD (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 5TD
3 plays · 38 yds · 0:3592% → 93%
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+31
92.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 31 yds to the SAlab 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
92.9%
Jalin Moore run for 7 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.6%
Evan Orth run for 1 yd to the SAlab 26Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-3
92.6%
Evan Orth pass complete to Tra Minter for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 23Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+5
92.7%
Deonta Moore run for 5 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q1 5:37
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+52
92.7%
Corliss Waitman punt for 49 yds , Clifton Duck returns for 52 yds to the SAlab 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 7TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:2593% → 94%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+18
92.6%
Jalin Moore run for 11 yds to the SAlab 14 for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Taji Stewart) to the SAlab 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
93.9%
Zac Thomas run for 7 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.4%
Kawaan Baker run for 1 yd to the SAlab 26Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+12
93.4%
Evan Orth pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 12 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
93.3%
Orth, Evan sacked for loss of 10 yards to the USA28 (Willis, Chris;Doublin, Logan), PENALTY APP holding (Hayes, Tae) 10 yards to the USA48, 1ST DOWN USA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
93.3%
Evan Orth pass incomplete to Jamarius WaySimilar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
93.3%
Tra Minter run for 1 yd to the SAlab 49Similar
Q1 3:10
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
93.5%
Corliss Waitman punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Clifton Duck at the AppSt 14Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 9
OWN 49
0
93.4%
TEAM run for no gain to the SAlab 49 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SAlab Evan OrthSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 9TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 2:5794% → 96%
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
93.5%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the AppSt 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+44
93.5%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 44 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
93.5%
Thomas, Zac pass intercepted by Moss, Tobias at the USA22, Moss, Tobias return to the USA22, out-of-bounds, PENALTY USA roughing passer (Beaton, Jordon) 15 yards to the USA26, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
93.5%
Darrynton Evans run for 13 yds to the SAlab 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
93.5%
Thomas, Zac pass incomplete to Hennigan, T., PENALTY USA personal foul (Beaton, Jordon) 7 yards to the USA6, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
93.5%
Darrynton Evans run for no gain to the SAlab 6Similar
Q2 14:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
93.5%
Darrynton Evans run for 4 yds to the SAlab 2Similar
Q2 12:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 2 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
95.7%
Evan Orth sacked by Noel Cook for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 22Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-10
95.8%
Orth, Evan rush for 5 yards to the USA27 (Diarrassouba, E), PENALTY USA holding (Merchant, Hadon) 10 yards to the USA12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 23
OWN 12
+6
95.8%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 6 yds to the SAlab 18Similar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+5
95.8%
Orth, Evan pass intercepted by Duck, Clifton at the USA37, Duck, Clifton return to the USA37, PENALTY APP offside (Taylor, D.) 5 yards to the USA23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+3
95.8%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 3 yds to the SAlab 26Similar
Q2 12:22
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
95.8%
Corliss Waitman punt for 43 yds , Clifton Duck returns for no gain to the AppSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 11TD
14 plays · 69 yds · 5:0397% → 99%
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
96.7%
Jalin Moore run for 8 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+7
96.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 7 yds to the AppSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
96.9%
Jalin Moore run for 13 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
96.9%
Jalin Moore run for 1 yd to the SAlab 40Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+17
96.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 17 yds to the SAlab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
96.9%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Collin Reed, broken up by Nigel LawrenceSimilar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+7
96.9%
Jalin Moore run for 7 yds to the SAlab 16Similar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 3
OPP 16
0
96.7%
Jalin Moore run for no gain to the SAlab 16Similar
Q2 9:48
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+5
96.6%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the SAlab 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
96.8%
Jalin Moore run for 7 yds to the SAlab 4Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 3
OPP 4
0
96.8%
Jalin Moore run for no gain to the SAlab 4Similar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+2
96.6%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, personal foul (Bull Barge) to the SAlab 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
96.8%
Jalin Moore run for no gain to the SAlab 2Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.6%
Jalin Moore run for 2 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
98.7%
Evan Orth pass incomplete to Kawaan Baker, broken up by Desmond FranklinSimilar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+4
98.7%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jordan McCray for 4 yds to the SAlab 26Similar
Q2 4:39
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+2
98.6%
Evan Orth pass complete to Deonta Moore for 2 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q2 4:39
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
98.6%
Corliss Waitman punt for 9 yds, downed at the SAlab 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 13TD
2 plays · 37 yds · 0:3599% → 99%
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
98.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 10 yds to the SAlab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
99.1%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Marcus Williams Jr. for 27 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14MISSED FG
8 plays · 64 yds · 2:251% → 2%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
99.2%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jordan McCray for 34 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
99.1%
Evan Orth run for 4 yds to the AppSt 37Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+21
99.1%
Evan Orth pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 21 yds to the AppSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
99.0%
Evan Orth pass incomplete to Deonta Moore, broken up by Desmond FranklinSimilar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
99.0%
Evan Orth pass incomplete to Jordan McCray, broken up by Tae HayesSimilar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+5
99.1%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 5 yds to the AppSt 11Similar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 5
OPP 0
+28
98.2%
Gavin Patterson 28 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by null Clifton Duck return for 16 yds to the AppSt 0 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the AppSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.2%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
99.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the AppSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.4%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
99.4%
Evan Orth run for 5 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
99.3%
Evan Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+6
99.3%
Corliss Waitman punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 23 , Clifton Duck returns for 6 yds to the AppSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17INT
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+17
99.3%
Jalin Moore run for 17 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
99.4%
Zac Thomas run for 2 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q3 13:57
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+2
99.4%
Zac Thomas pass intercepted Gus Nave return for 17 yds to the APPALCHAN 41 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Noah Hannon) to the AppSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
99.5%
Maurice Mayo run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 48Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 12
OPP 48
0
99.5%
Evan Orth pass incomplete to Kawaan BakerSimilar
Q3 12:36
3RD & 12
OPP 48
+11
99.5%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 11 yds to the AppSt 37Similar
Q3 12:36
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+5
99.4%
Kawaan Baker run for 5 yds to the AppSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.4%
Evan Orth pass incomplete to Khameron Taylor, broken up by Akeem Davis-GaitherSimilar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
99.4%
Evan Orth pass incomplete to Tra MinterSimilar
Q3 12:36
3RD & 10
OPP 32
-15
99.5%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, personal foul (Ryan Alexander) to the AppSt 47Similar
Q3 12:36
3RD & 25
OPP 47
+8
99.5%
Sam Harris run for 8 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q3 12:36
4TH & 17
OPP 39
0
99.5%
Corliss Waitman punt for 28 yds, downed at the AppSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
99.6%
Jalin Moore run for 1 yd to the AppSt 12Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 9
OWN 12
0
99.6%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Jalen Virgil, broken up by Jalen ThompsonSimilar
Q3 9:56
3RD & 9
OWN 12
0
99.6%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas HenniganSimilar
Q3 9:56
4TH & 9
OWN 12
0
99.6%
Clayton Howell punt for 53 yds , Tra Minter returns for no gain to the SAlab 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20INT
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.6%
Evan Orth pass incomplete to Jamarius WaySimilar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-4
99.6%
Kawaan Baker run for a loss of 4 yards to the SAlab 31Similar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 14
OWN 31
+24
99.7%
Evan Orth pass intercepted Tae Hayes return for 24 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
99.7%
Zac Thomas pass intercepted Travis Reed return for 10 yds to the SAlab 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 38 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
99.7%
Maurice Mayo run for 5 yds to the SAlab 23Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+1
99.7%
Maurice Mayo run for 1 yd to the SAlab 24Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+15
99.7%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 15 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
99.7%
Evan Orth pass complete to Sam Harris for 15 yds to the AppSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
99.7%
Evan Orth pass incomplete to Jordan McCray, broken up by Tae HayesSimilar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+7
99.7%
Kawaan Baker run for 7 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 3
OPP 39
-5
99.6%
Kawaan Baker run for a loss of 5 yards to the AppSt 44Similar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
99.7%
Corliss Waitman punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23FG
7 plays · 86 yds · 3:29100% → 100%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+37
99.8%
Jalin Moore run for 37 yds to the AppSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
99.8%
Zac Thomas run for 3 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+42
99.8%
Darrynton Evans run for 42 yds to the SAlab 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.8%
Jalin Moore run for no gain to the SAlab 9Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
99.8%
Jalin Moore run for 4 yds to the SAlab 5Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.8%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Jalen Virgil, broken up by Tobias MossSimilar
Q3 0:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
99.9%
Chandler Staton 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 24DOWNS
15 plays · 75 yds · 0:410% → 0%
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Maurice Mayo run for no gain to the SAlab 20Similar
Q3 0:41
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
99.9%
Kawaan Baker run for 4 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+7
99.9%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 7 yds to the SAlab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
99.9%
Evan Orth pass complete to Davyn Flenord for 5 yds to the SAlab 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+2
99.9%
Maurice Mayo run for 2 yds to the SAlab 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+15
99.9%
Evan Orth pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 15 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
99.9%
Tra Minter run for 13 yds to the AppSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.9%
Evan Orth pass incomplete to Davyn FlenordSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+13
99.9%
Tra Minter run for 13 yds to the AppSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+15
99.8%
Orth, Evan pass incomplete to Way, Jamarius, PENALTY APP pass interference (Thomas, Josh) 15 yards to the APP6, 1ST DOWN USA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
99.8%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds to the AppSt 3Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-7
99.8%
Evan Orth run for a loss of 7 yards to the AppSt 6 Evan Orth fumbled, recovered by SAlab Evan OrthSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
99.8%
Sam Harris run for 1 yd to the AppSt 5Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.8%
Evan Orth pass incomplete to Davyn FlenordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 25TD
14 plays · 95 yds · 7:40100% → 100%
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
99.9%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the AppSt 7Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+9
99.9%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 9 yds to the AppSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
99.9%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the AppSt 18Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 8
OWN 0
+7
99.9%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 7 yds to the AppSt 25 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the AppSt 25Similar
Q4 8:16
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the AppSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
99.9%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 11 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
99.9%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+21
99.9%
Peyton Derrick run for 6 yds to the APPALCHAN 48 for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, personal foul (DJ Daniels) to the SAlab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
99.9%
D'Andre Hicks run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 35Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+20
99.9%
Peyton Derrick pass complete to A'Darius Purifoy for 20 yds to the SAlab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
99.9%
D'Andre Hicks run for 7 yds to the SAlab 8Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+5
99.9%
D'Andre Hicks run for 5 yds to the SAlab 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
100.0%
Peyton Derrick pass complete to Collin Reed for 3 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 26PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:120% → 0%
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
100.0%
Cade Sutherland run for a loss of 5 yards to the SAlab 20Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-8
100.0%
Cephus Johnson run for a loss of 8 yards to the SAlab 12Similar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+11
100.0%
John Tank Miller run for 11 yds to the SAlab 23Similar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
100.0%
Corliss Waitman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · 28 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
100.0%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 16 yds to the SAlab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
100.0%
D'Andre Hicks run for 2 yds to the SAlab 46Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+10
100.0%
D'Andre Hicks run for 10 yds to the SAlab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:22
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 2 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined
+2.4
TD · Q2 4:45
Jalin Moore run for 2 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
+1.8
TD · Q1 6:12
Kawaan Baker run for 2 yds for a TD (Gavin Patterson KICK)
-1.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com