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TROY

Troy 35 at UL Monroe 27

ULM
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · Malone Stadium
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Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:59 · Jared Porter punt for 48 yds , Cedarius Rookard returns for 6 yds to the Troy 27 TROY Penalty, personal foul (Jabir Daughtry-Frye) to the Troy 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 87Home team on offense−19.6Score differential−9.8Garbage-time factor−4.2Pregame prior−4.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:51: Kaleb Barker run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +5.4 pts (now 62%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:23: Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 26 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +8.2 pts (now 70%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:20: Kaleb Barker pass complete to Damion Willis for 4 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +12.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:22: Caleb Evans pass complete to Sloan Spiller for 4 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +13.3 pts (now 19%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:18: Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 23 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford PAT MISSED) — ULM win probability +12.4 pts (now 23%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00TROY 4th & 3 at TROY 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:00ULM 4th & 9 at ULM 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:51ULM 4th & 23 at ULM 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−2.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:23ULM 4th & 10 at midfield, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:59ULM 4th & 14 at ULM 21, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:32ULM 4th & 1 at TROY 15, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    4.8%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    4.3%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:09TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 31, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:17TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 46, up 21
    Close callPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:53TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−0.8
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:36ULM 4th & 12 at ULM 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−1.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:55TROY 4th & 2 at TROY 43, up 14
    Close callPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:24TROY 4th & 10 at ULM 29, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    88.8%−3.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TROY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 8:32ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:00TROY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:51TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:23TROY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:20TROY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:42TROY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:17ULM Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:22ULM Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:18ULM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    14.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.7%−1.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
42.5%
Kaleb Barker sacked by Rashaad Harding for a loss of 7 yards to the Troy 18Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+3
42.5%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+11
42.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 11 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+40
42.5%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 40 yds , Marcus Green returns for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2TD
14 plays · 73 yds · 4:4243% → 48%
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
43.1%
Derrick Gore run for 11 yds to the LaMon 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
43.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Derrick Gore for 4 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+8
43.3%
Derrick Gore run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
50
+6
43.3%
Caleb Evans pass complete to R.J. Turner for 6 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 4
OPP 44
-1
43.3%
Derrick Gore run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 45Similar
Q1 13:14
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+6
43.3%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 6 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
43.3%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to R.J. TurnerSimilar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+3
43.3%
Derrick Gore run for 3 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q1 13:14
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+10
43.3%
Caleb Evans run for 10 yds to the Troy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
43.4%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+23
43.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 23 yds to the Troy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
43.4%
Austin Vaughn run for no gain to the Troy 3Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
43.4%
Evans, Caleb pass incomplete to Turner, R.J., PENALTY TROY offside (Sanders, Trevon) 2 yards to the TROY1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
47.6%
Derrick Gore run for 1 yd for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 1:3253% → 56%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+19
46.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Jabir Daughtry-Frye for 19 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
46.4%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Damion Willis for 6 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+24
46.1%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 24 yds to the LaMon 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
45.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 8 yds to the LaMon 19Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 2
OPP 19
0
45.7%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Deondre Douglas, broken up by Corey StraughterSimilar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+19
43.7%
Kaleb Barker run for 19 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
44.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Sloan Spiller for 3 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
44.8%
Derrick Gore run for 11 yds to the LaMon 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
45.1%
Derrick Gore run for 2 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-1
45.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Derrick Gore for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 40Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
44.7%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:00
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
44.3%
Jared Porter punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Cedarius Rookard at the Troy 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5TD
14 plays · 81 yds · 5:5555% → 62%
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
45.1%
B.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+6
45.0%
B.J. Smith run for 6 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
45.0%
Sawyer Smith run for 6 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+3
44.5%
Kaleb Barker run for 3 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
44.5%
Kaleb Barker run for 2 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
44.4%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Tray Eafford for 13 yds to the LaMon 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
44.1%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 5 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+4
44.0%
Kaleb Barker run for 4 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+4
44.1%
Kaleb Barker run for 4 yds to the LaMon 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
43.8%
B.J. Smith run for no gain to the LaMon 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+5
43.9%
B.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+7
44.3%
Kaleb Barker run for 7 yds to the LaMon 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+19
43.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Jabir Daughtry-Frye for 19 yds to the LaMon 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
38.3%
Kaleb Barker run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -13 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.3%
Austin Vaughn run for no gain to the LaMon 25Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
40.3%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 20Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
40.2%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus Green, broken up by Tyler MurraySimilar
Q2 13:51
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-8
39.6%
Caleb Evans sacked by Hunter Reese for a loss of 8 yards to the LaMon 12Similar
Q2 13:51
4TH & 23
OWN 12
0
39.3%
Jared Porter punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Cedarius Rookard at the Troy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 1:5962% → 70%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
38.4%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Jabir Daughtry-Frye for 9 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+8
38.1%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Sam Letton for 8 yds to the LaMon 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
38.2%
Sawyer Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 39Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+13
38.2%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 13 yds to the LaMon 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
30.0%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 26 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 0:0032% → 33%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
31.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Sloan Spiller for 7 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
32.6%
Caleb Evans run for 5 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
32.5%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
32.1%
Caleb Evans run for 6 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+7
33.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
50
+3
33.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 3 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
33.5%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 7
OPP 47
-10
33.3%
Evans, Caleb rush for 6 yards to the TROY41, out-of-bounds (McDowell, Jawon), PENALTY ULM holding (Jackson Jr., D.) 10 yards to the ULM43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 17
OWN 43
+7
32.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:23
4TH & 10
50
0
32.5%
Jared Porter punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9TD
10 plays · 96 yds · 4:3371% → 85%
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
29.3%
Kaleb Barker run for no gain to the Troy 4Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+14
29.3%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Sidney Davis for 14 yds to the Troy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
29.0%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 12 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
28.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Sidney Davis for 18 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
27.8%
Kaleb Barker run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 8
50
+10
27.8%
Barker, Kaleb pass incomplete to Willis, Damion, PENALTY ULM holding (Marbles, K.) 10 yards to the ULM40, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
27.8%
B.J. Smith run for 11 yds to the LaMon 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+26
27.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 26 yds to the LaMon 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
27.5%
B.J. Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 4Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
15.0%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Damion Willis for 4 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · -4 yds · 0:2118% → 19%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-13
17.8%
Caleb Evans sacked by Trevon Sanders for a loss of 13 yards to the LaMon 12Similar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+9
17.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Derrick Gore for 9 yds to the LaMon 21Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 23
OWN 12
0
20.2%
Caleb Evans run for no gain to the LaMon 12Similar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+6
19.4%
Jared Porter punt for 48 yds , Cedarius Rookard returns for 6 yds to the Troy 27 TROY Penalty, personal foul (Jabir Daughtry-Frye) to the Troy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 1:0384% → 91%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+34
15.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to B.J. Smith for 19 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST down UL MONROE Penalty, personal foul (Jaylen Veasley) to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
14.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 9 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 1
OPP 35
0
13.8%
B.J. Smith run for no gain to the LaMon 35Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+2
14.0%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the LaMon 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
14.3%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Sam Letton for 11 yds to the LaMon 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
9.4%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Sidney Davis for 22 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
11.9%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus Green, broken up by Kyler KnudsenSimilar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
11.5%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+5
11.4%
Kayin White run for 5 yds to the LaMon 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13DOWNS
11 plays · 60 yds · 1:289% → 8%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
8.5%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
8.2%
Caleb Evans run for 7 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
8.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Derrick Gore for 9 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
8.9%
Derrick Gore run for 12 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+23
9.4%
Caleb Evans run for 23 yds to the Troy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
9.6%
Marcus Green run for 3 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 7
OPP 21
0
9.5%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+6
9.3%
Markis McCray run for 6 yds to the Troy 15Similar
Q3 13:32
4TH & 1
OPP 15
0
8.4%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to R.J. TurnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
5.0%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Tray Eafford for 4 yds to the Troy 19Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+8
4.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Sidney Davis for 8 yds to the Troy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
4.9%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
4.9%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Tray EaffordSimilar
Q3 12:09
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+1
4.8%
Kaleb Barker run for 1 yd to the Troy 31Similar
Q3 12:09
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
5.1%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 50 yds, fair catch by R.J. Turner at the LaMon 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15TD
13 plays · 81 yds · 4:426% → 12%
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
5.9%
Josh Johnson run for 1 yd to the LaMon 20Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 9
OWN 20
0
5.7%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Sloan Spiller, broken up by Cedarius RookardSimilar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+17
5.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to R.J. Turner for 17 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
6.0%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Xavier Brown, broken up by Tron FolsomSimilar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
5.8%
Caleb Evans run for 2 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+32
5.8%
Caleb Evans run for 32 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
7.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for 12 yds to the Troy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
7.0%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 22Similar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 15
OPP 22
+5
6.9%
Caleb Evans run for 5 yds to the Troy 17Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+6
6.8%
Caleb Evans run for 6 yds to the Troy 11Similar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+5
6.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Kayin White for 5 yds to the Troy 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
7.5%
Kayin White run for 4 yds to the Troy 2Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
11.6%
Kayin White run for 2 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
3.7%
B.J. Smith run for 11 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
3.5%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+2
3.5%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
3.6%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Luke Whittemore, broken up by Collin TurnerSimilar
Q3 5:17
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
3.9%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 3:366% → 19%
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
5.8%
Markis McCray run for 14 yds to the LaMon 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
6.0%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to R.J. TurnerSimilar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
5.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Sloan Spiller for 11 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
6.3%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Zachari Jackson for 8 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+7
6.7%
Austin Vaughn run for 7 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
6.6%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
6.5%
Derrick Gore run for 4 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q3 2:38
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+9
6.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 9 yds to the Troy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
7.3%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Austin Vaughn for 16 yds to the Troy 9 for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
5.8%
Austin Vaughn run for 5 yds to the Troy 4Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
19.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Sloan Spiller for 4 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:2993% → 94%
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
6.9%
B.J. Smith run for 9 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-3
6.8%
Kaleb Barker sacked by Cal Kee III and David Griffith for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 31Similar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
5.5%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to B.J. Smith, broken up by Nick IngramSimilar
Q4 12:53
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
5.6%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
13.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Kayin White for 3 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
14.1%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Markis McCraySimilar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 7
OWN 27
-5
13.5%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 22Similar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 12
OWN 22
0
13.3%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Xavier BrownSimilar
Q4 12:36
4TH & 12
OWN 22
0
13.3%
Jared Porter punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Cedarius Rookard at the Troy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
4.7%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-5
4.4%
TROY Penalty, false start (J.L. Gaston) to the Troy 33Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+2
4.9%
Kaleb Barker run for 2 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+8
4.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Sidney Davis for 8 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q4 11:55
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
4.6%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 22 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:489% → 23%
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
9.1%
Derrick Gore run for 1 yd to the LaMon 36Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-8
9.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 2 yds to the LaMon 38 UL MONROE Penalty, Offensive holding (Sloan Spiller) to the LaMon 28Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 17
OWN 28
-14
8.4%
UL MONROE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-14 Yards) to the LaMon 14Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 31
OWN 14
+7
8.4%
Caleb Evans run for 7 yds to the LaMon 21Similar
Q4 9:06
3RD & 24
OWN 21
+44
8.3%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Xavier Brown for 44 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
11.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Derrick Gore for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 36Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+13
10.2%
Caleb Evans run for 13 yds to the Troy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
22.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 23 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22MISSED FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 3:5495% → 97%
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
5.4%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Sidney Davis for 8 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+14
5.2%
Kaleb Barker run for 14 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
4.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Sam Letton for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 46Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 11
OWN 46
0
4.9%
B.J. Smith run for no gain to the Troy 46Similar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+25
5.2%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Damion Willis for 25 yds to the LaMon 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
4.3%
Kaleb Barker run for no gain to the LaMon 29Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
2.4%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Sam LettonSimilar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 10
OPP 29
-5
2.6%
TROY Penalty, false start (Austin Stidham) to the LaMon 34Similar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 15
OPP 34
+5
2.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Damion Willis for 5 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q4 2:24
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+46
3.0%
Tyler Sumpter 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23INT
9 plays · 60 yds · 0:488% → 13%
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
7.8%
Caleb Evans run for 6 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 4
OWN 35
0
8.4%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to R.J. Turner, broken up by Tyler MurraySimilar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+11
7.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Derrick Gore for 11 yds to the LaMon 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
7.6%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (T.J. Fiailoa) to the LaMon 41Similar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+21
6.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to R.J. Turner for 21 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
8.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Derrick Gore for 7 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+5
12.0%
Evans, Caleb pass complete to Gore, Derrick for 2 yards to the TROY29, out-of-bounds, PENALTY TROY substitution infraction 5 yards to the TROY26, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
12.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Xavier Brown for 15 yds to the Troy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
12.5%
Caleb Evans pass intercepted, touchback. Marcus Jones return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
1.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:22
Caleb Evans pass complete to Sloan Spiller for 4 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
+13.3
TD · Q2 2:20
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Damion Willis for 4 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK)
-12.5
TD · Q4 6:18
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 23 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford PAT MISSED)
+12.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com