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CCU

Coastal Carolina 30 at Louisiana 28

UL
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · Cajun Field
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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadCCU aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreCCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:14 · Marcus Outlow run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 48 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 69Pregame prior+8.2Home team on offense−3.3Score differential−2.0Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:04: Kilton Anderson pass complete to Ky'Jon Tyler for 31 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi PAT MISSED) — CCU win probability +14.0 pts (now 62%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:23: Marcus Outlow run for 1 yd for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — CCU win probability +16.4 pts (now 76%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:30: Raymond Calais run for 61 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK) — UL win probability +19.6 pts (now 58%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. TD · Q4 9:08: Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 29 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — CCU win probability +26.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:20: Andre Nunez pass complete to Keenan Barnes for 15 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK) — UL win probability +31.5 pts (now 56%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 5CCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00UL 4th & 7 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:24CCU 4th & 18 at CCU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:31CCU 4th & 12 at UL 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.0%
    49% to make
    Punt
    35.6%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:31UL 4th & 17 at UL 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−1.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:53CCU 4th & 2 at UL 5, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    38.5%−0.9
    92% to make
    Punt
    34.3%−5.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:14UL 4th & 15 at UL 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%−2.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:14CCU 4th & 1 at CCU 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    44.8%−1.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:33CCU 4th & 6 at UL 44, up 3
    Close callPunted · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    47.7%−1.0
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:28UL 4th & 7 at CCU 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.3%
    51% to make
    Punt
    51.7%−2.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:29CCU 4th & 6 at CCU 40, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:30CCU 4th & 1 at UL 45, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    41.6%−8.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    44.6%−5.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:52UL 4th & 4 at UL 36, down 2
    Close callPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 6:13UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:14CCU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:04CCU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    59.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:23CCU Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:29UL Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:30UL Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:08CCU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:20UL Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.5%−1.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
63.6%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+10
63.6%
Trey Ragas run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
63.6%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+2
63.6%
Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
50
0
63.6%
Andre Nunez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
50
0
63.6%
Rhys Byrns punt for 43 yds , Ky'Jon Tyler returns for no gain to the CCaro 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+11
63.5%
Marcus Outlow run for 11 yds to the CCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+14
63.5%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Shadell Bell for 14 yds to the CCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
63.4%
Kilton Anderson run for 1 yd to the CCaro 33Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
63.4%
Kilton Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 9
OWN 33
-4
63.6%
Kilton Anderson sacked by Eric Garror for a loss of 4 yards to the CCaro 29Similar
Q1 12:24
4TH & 13
OWN 29
-5
63.7%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Laqavious Paul) to the CCaro 24Similar
Q1 12:24
4TH & 18
OWN 24
+4
63.7%
Charles Ouverson punt for 49 yds , Ryheem Malone returns for 4 yds to the LaLaf 28 LOUISIANA Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the LaLaf 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 3:4963% → 67%
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
63.4%
Andre Nunez run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 22Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+6
63.3%
Andre Nunez run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q1 10:02
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+15
63.2%
Nunez,Andre DS pass incomplete to Barnes,Keenan, PENALTY CCU E (Wattley, Fitz) 15 yards to the LA43, 1ST DOWN LA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
63.8%
Trey Ragas run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 6
OWN 47
-9
63.9%
Andre Nunez sacked by Laqavious Paul for a loss of 9 yards to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q1 10:02
3RD & 15
OWN 38
+20
63.3%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Earnest Patterson for 20 yds to the CCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+40
64.0%
Raymond Calais run for 40 yds to the CCaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
64.1%
Raymond Calais run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCaro 3Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
67.0%
Trey Ragas run for 3 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 4FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 3:4234% → 36%
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
66.1%
Kilton Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+3
66.1%
Torrance Marable run for 3 yds to the CCaro 26Similar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+18
66.4%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Larry Collins Jr. for 18 yds to the CCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
65.5%
Marcus Outlow run for 3 yds to the CCaro 47Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+22
65.3%
Torrance Marable run for 22 yds to the LaLaf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
64.8%
Anderson, Kilton DM pass incomplete, QB hurry by Garrald McDowell, PENALTY CCU holding (Howard, Ethan) 10 yards to the LA41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 20
OPP 41
+8
65.6%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 8 yds to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 12
OPP 33
0
65.1%
Kilton Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 12
OPP 33
0
65.7%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Marcus OutlowSimilar
Q1 2:31
4TH & 12
OPP 33
+50
64.4%
Massimo Biscardi 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0065% → 63%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
64.6%
Elijah Mitchell run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 41Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-8
65.0%
Andre Nunez sacked by Brayden Matts for a loss of 8 yards to the LaLaf 32 Andre Nunez fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 15
OWN 32
-2
63.6%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Trey Ragas for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q1 2:31
4TH & 17
OWN 30
0
63.3%
Rhys Byrns punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Ky'Jon Tyler at the CCaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 6TD
21 plays · 76 yds · 7:0636% → 45%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
64.3%
Alex James run for 6 yds to the CCaro 30Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+5
63.7%
Alex James run for 5 yds to the CCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
63.9%
Alex James run for 9 yds to the CCaro 44Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+12
62.8%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 12 yds to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
62.8%
Alex James run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+6
62.1%
Kilton Anderson run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+16
62.1%
Kilton Anderson run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 27 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, personal foul (Ferrod Gardner) to the LaLaf 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+5
63.7%
Alex James run for 5 yds to the CCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
63.9%
Alex James run for 9 yds to the CCaro 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+12
62.8%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 12 yds to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
62.7%
Alex James run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+6
62.1%
Kilton Anderson run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+16
62.1%
Kilton Anderson run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 27 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, personal foul (Ferrod Gardner) to the LaLaf 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
62.1%
Marcus Outlow run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 9Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+2
63.2%
Alex James run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 7Similar
Q2 9:53
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+2
65.7%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Shadell Bell for 2 yds to the LaLaf 5Similar
Q2 9:53
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+3
66.6%
Marcus Outlow run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
64.7%
Marcus Outlow run for no gain to the LaLaf 2Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
55.5%
Marcus Outlow run for 2 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
59.3%
Trey Ragas run for no gain to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-3
58.9%
Levi Lewis run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q2 8:14
3RD & 13
OWN 27
-2
58.0%
Levi Lewis sacked by Jeffrey Gunter and Tarron Jackson for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q2 8:14
4TH & 15
OWN 25
0
57.7%
Rhys Byrns punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Ky'Jon Tyler at the CCaro 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 16 yds · 4:4144% → 47%
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
55.8%
Alex James run for 5 yds to the CCaro 45Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+4
55.6%
Alex James run for 4 yds to the CCaro 49Similar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 1
OWN 49
0
55.5%
Marcus Outlow run for no gain to the CCaro 49Similar
Q2 6:14
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+3
56.6%
Marcus Outlow run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
55.1%
Torrance Marable run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+2
55.0%
Marcus Outlow run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+4
55.3%
Kilton Anderson run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q2 1:33
4TH & 1
OPP 39
-5
52.7%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q2 1:33
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
53.5%
Charles Ouverson punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaLaf 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9MISSED FG
6 plays · 56 yds · 0:5755% → 57%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
55.0%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Ryheem Malone, broken up by Derrick BushSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+53
54.9%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 53 yds to the CCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
60.6%
Trey Ragas run for 3 yds to the CCaro 32Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
60.7%
Andre Nunez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
58.7%
Andre Nunez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+49
56.6%
Kyle Pfau 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 0:2447% → 62%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+23
53.5%
Marcus Outlow run for 23 yds to the LaLaf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
50.3%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 15
50
+19
51.9%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Ky'Jon Tyler for 19 yds to the LaLaf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
49.3%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+31
37.6%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Ky'Jon Tyler for 31 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 12TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:3757% → 76%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
42.8%
Malcolm Williams run for 5 yds to the CCaro 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+15
41.8%
Torrance Marable run for 15 yds to the CCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+59
40.8%
Kilton Anderson run for 59 yds to the LaLaf 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
24.4%
Marcus Outlow run for 1 yd for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 1:5430% → 46%
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
30.0%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 9 yds to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+4
31.2%
Trey Ragas run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+19
30.6%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Keenan Barnes for 19 yds to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+23
32.7%
Trey Ragas run for 8 yds to the ULLAFAYTTE 45 for a 1ST down COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Chandler Kryst) to the CCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
33.9%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Earnest PattersonSimilar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+30
45.8%
Elijah Mitchell run for 30 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
38.9%
Torrance Marable run for 3 yds to the CCaro 39Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-4
38.3%
Bryce Carpenter run for a loss of 4 yards to the CCaro 35Similar
Q3 11:29
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+5
41.3%
Marcus Outlow run for 5 yds to the CCaro 40Similar
Q3 11:29
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
40.1%
Charles Ouverson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Ryheem Malone at the LaLaf 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15TD
3 plays · 87 yds · 0:5338% → 58%
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+19
38.0%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Trey Ragas for 19 yds to the LaLaf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
38.9%
Trey Ragas run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+61
58.4%
Raymond Calais run for 61 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 16FUMBLE
11 plays · 45 yds · 0:0048% → 50%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
52.3%
Torrance Marable run for 4 yds to the CCaro 39Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+2
50.4%
Marcus Outlow run for 2 yds to the CCaro 41Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+5
50.8%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 5 yds to the CCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
50.3%
Marcus Outlow run for 2 yds to the CCaro 48Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+7
50.2%
Bryce Carpenter run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 1
OPP 45
0
49.6%
Alex James run for no gain to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q3 8:30
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+19
52.1%
Marcus Outlow run for 19 yds to the LaLaf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-6
48.1%
Bryce Carpenter run for a loss of 6 yards to the LaLaf 32 Bryce Carpenter fumbled, recovered by CCaro Bryce CarpenterSimilar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 16
OPP 32
+12
50.0%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 12 yds to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 4
OPP 20
-2
49.7%
Alex James run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 20 Alex James fumbled, forced by Deuce Wallace, recovered by LaLaf Tra'Vontae BookerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0053% → 51%
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
52.6%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ryheem Malone for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 18Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+8
52.1%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Keenan Barnes for 8 yds to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q3 2:52
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+4
51.5%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Keenan Barnes for 4 yds to the LaLaf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
53.1%
Raymond Calais run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
53.6%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Elijah Mitchell, broken up by Jeffrey GunterSimilar
Q3 2:52
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+3
51.7%
Trey Ragas run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q3 2:52
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
51.4%
Rhys Byrns punt for 51 yds, downed at the CCaro 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 18TD
10 plays · 87 yds · 5:5253% → 86%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
46.9%
Torrance Marable run for 9 yds to the CCaro 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+4
45.6%
Torrance Marable run for 4 yds to the CCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
46.5%
Torrance Marable run for 6 yds to the CCaro 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+3
44.7%
Torrance Marable run for 3 yds to the CCaro 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+2
45.2%
Marcus Outlow run for 2 yds to the CCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
45.1%
Marcus Outlow run for 2 yds to the CCaro 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+21
43.6%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jeremiah Miller for 21 yds to the LaLaf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
42.7%
Marcus Outlow run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+5
40.8%
Marcus Outlow run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
14.4%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 29 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 3:4819% → 56%
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+24
19.3%
Trey Ragas run for 24 yds to the LaLaf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
19.2%
Nunez,Andre sideline pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus Bradley, PENALTY CCU pass interference off-setting, PENALTY LA ineligible downfield on pass off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
21.1%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus BradleySimilar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+19
20.7%
Trey Ragas run for 19 yds to the CCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
23.6%
Trey Ragas run for 9 yds to the CCaro 33Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 1
OPP 33
0
25.9%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Ryheem Malone, broken up by Chandler KrystSimilar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+3
24.1%
Elijah Mitchell run for 3 yds to the CCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
25.5%
Elijah Mitchell run for 4 yds to the CCaro 26Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+5
25.9%
Raymond Calais run for 5 yds to the CCaro 21Similar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+6
24.1%
Trey Ragas run for 6 yds to the CCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
55.6%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Keenan Barnes for 15 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 20END OF GAME
16 plays · 39 yds · 4:5463% → 94%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
36.8%
Bryce Carpenter sacked by Bennie Higgins for a loss of 1 yard to the CCaro 24Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
37.3%
Torrance Marable run for 1 yd to the CCaro 25Similar
Q4 3:56
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
34.4%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jeremiah Miller for 15 yds to the CCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
28.8%
Bryce Carpenter run for 12 yds to the LaLaf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
27.5%
Torrance Marable run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 6
OPP 44
-15
27.6%
Carpenter, Bryce rush OL for 1 yard to the LA43 (Kidd,LaDarrius), PENALTY CCU illegal block (Hoffman, Brock) 15 yards to the CCU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 21
OWN 41
+5
26.7%
Torrance Marable run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 39 Torrance Marable fumbled, recovered by CCaro Jaivon Heiligh , return for 11 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+5
16.4%
Carpenter, Bryce rush AR for loss of 1 yard to the LA40, PENALTY LA offside (Porter,Timaje) 5 yards to the LA34, 1ST DOWN CCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
15.2%
Marcus Outlow run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+3
15.3%
Torrance Marable run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q4 0:26
3RD & 6
OPP 30
-6
6.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the LaLaf 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:20
Andre Nunez pass complete to Keenan Barnes for 15 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)
+31.5
TD · Q4 9:08
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 29 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
-26.4
TD · Q3 8:30
Raymond Calais run for 61 yds for a TD (Kyle Pfau KICK)
+19.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com